Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 15
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Virginia's 10th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 29, 2018 |
| Primary: June 12, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Barbara Comstock (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Virginia |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th Virginia elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) defeated businessman Shak Hill (R) in the Republican primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District on June 12, 2018.
This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
Candidates and election results
Incumbent Barbara Comstock defeated Shak Hill in the Republican primary for U.S. House Virginia District 10 on June 12, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Virginia District 10
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Barbara Comstock | 60.7 | 28,287 |
 | Shak Hill | 39.3 | 18,311 | |
| Total votes: 46,598 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Virginia's 10th Congressional District the 192nd most Democratic nationally.[1]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[2]
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[3] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Five of 133 Virginia counties—3.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Buckingham County, Virginia | 11.28% | 2.43% | 0.87% | ||||
| Caroline County, Virginia | 5.02% | 8.24% | 11.97% | ||||
| Essex County, Virginia | 2.14% | 7.30% | 10.35% | ||||
| Nelson County, Virginia | 5.59% | 2.72% | 9.15% | ||||
| Westmoreland County, Virginia | 7.14% | 6.95% | 10.24% | ||||
Note: Although it is highlighted in the map above, the city of Chesapeake is not considered a county and not included in our calculations as such.
In the 2016 presidential election, Virginia was a battleground state. Hillary Clinton (D) won Virginia with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic three times (2008, 2012, and 2016) and Republican two times (2000 and 2004).
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Virginia heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Virginia.
- Republicans held seven of 11 U.S. House seats in Virginia.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held four of 12 state executive positions and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Virginia was Democrat Ralph Northam. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor in 2021.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly. They had a 50-49 majority in the state House and a 21-19 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Virginia was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Ralph Northam (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Virginia elections, 2018
Virginia held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 11 U.S. House seats
- One state House seat
- Municipal elections in Chesapeake, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach
Demographics
| Demographic data for Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 8,367,587 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 39,490 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 69% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 19.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 6% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 8.6% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 88.3% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 36.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $65,015 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 13% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Virginia. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Virginia's three largest cities were Virginia Beach (pop. est. 450,435), Norfolk (pop. est. 244,703), and Chesapeake (pop. est. 240,397).[8][9]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Virginia State Board of Elections.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Virginia every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Hillary Clinton |
49.7% |  Donald Trump |
44.4% | 5.3% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
51.1% | Mitt Romney |
47.2% | 3.9% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
52.6% | John McCain |
46.3% | 6.3% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
53.7% | John Kerry |
45.5% | 8.2% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
52.5% | Al Gore |
44.4% | 12.0% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Virginia from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Mark Warner |
49.1% | Ed Gillespie |
48.3% | 0.8% |
| 2012 | Tim Kaine |
52.8% | George Allen |
46.9% | 5.9% |
| 2008 | Mark Warner |
65.0% | Jim Gilmore |
33.7% | 31.3% |
| 2006 | Jim Webb (Virginia) |
49.6% | George Allen |
49.2% | 0.4% |
| 2002 | John Warner |
82.6% |  Nancy B. Spannaus (Independent) |
9.7% | 72.9% |
| 2000 | George Allen |
52.3% | Chuck Robb |
47.7% | 4.6% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Virginia.
| Election results (Governor), Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2017 | Ralph Northam |
53.9% | Ed Gillespie |
45.0% | 8.9% |
| 2013 | Terry McAuliffe |
47.8% | Ken Cuccinelli |
45.2% | 2.6% |
| 2009 | Bob McDonnell |
58.6% | Creigh Deeds |
41.3% | 17.3% |
| 2005 | Tim Kaine |
51.7% | Jerry Kilgore |
46.0% | 5.7% |
| 2001 | Mark Warner |
52.2% | Mark Earley |
47.0% | 5.2% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Virginia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 7 |
63.6% | 4 |
36.4% | R+3 |
| 2014 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2012 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2010 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2008 | 5 |
45.4% | 6 |
54.5% | D+1 |
| 2006 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2004 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2002 | 8 |
72.7% | 3 |
27.3% | R+5 |
| 2000 | 7 |
50.0% | 3 |
50.0% | R+4 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Virginia Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia, 2018
- United States House elections in Virginia (June 12, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Virginia Demographics, "Virginia Cities by Population," accessed September 3, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Virginia," accessed September 3, 2018
