Ohio's 10th Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID required
- Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Ohio's 10th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: February 7, 2018 |
| Primary: May 8, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Michael Turner (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voting in Ohio |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 12th (special) Ohio elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of Ohio, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Michael Turner (R), who was first elected in 2002.
As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Ohio's 10th Congressional District was located in the southern portion of the state and included Montgomery and Greene counties and parts of Fayette County.[1]
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Ohio District 10
Incumbent Michael Turner defeated Theresa Gasper and David Harlow in the general election for U.S. House Ohio District 10 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Michael Turner (R) | 55.9 | 157,554 |
 | Theresa Gasper (D) | 42.2 | 118,785 | |
 | David Harlow (L) | 1.9 | 5,387 | |
| Total votes: 281,726 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 10
Theresa Gasper defeated Robert Klepinger and Michael Milisits in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Ohio District 10 on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Theresa Gasper | 67.0 | 23,077 |
 | Robert Klepinger | 25.6 | 8,814 | |
| Michael Milisits | 7.4 | 2,544 | ||
| Total votes: 34,435 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 10
Incumbent Michael Turner defeated John Anderson and John Mitchel in the Republican primary for U.S. House Ohio District 10 on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael Turner | 79.8 | 43,047 |
 | John Anderson | 11.5 | 6,192 | |
 | John Mitchel | 8.7 | 4,693 | |
| Total votes: 53,932 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Ohio's 10th Congressional District the 206th most Republican nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[3]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Theresa Gasper | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| David Harlow | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated Robert Klepinger (D) and Thomas McMasters (independent) in the general election. No candidate faced a primary opponent.[4]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Michael Turner Incumbent |
64.1% | 215,724 | |
| Democratic | Robert Klepinger | 32.7% | 109,981 | |
| Independent | Thomas McMasters | 3.2% | 10,890 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 7 | |
| Total Votes | 336,602 | |||
| Source: Ohio Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The 10th Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated Robert Klepinger (D) and David Harlow (L) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Turner Incumbent |
65.2% | 130,752 | |
| Democratic | Robert Klepinger | 31.5% | 63,249 | |
| Libertarian | David Harlow | 3.3% | 6,605 | |
| Total Votes | 200,606 | |||
| Source: Ohio Secretary of State | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Nine of 88 Ohio counties—10.2 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Ashtabula County, Ohio | 18.80% | 12.78% | 13.54% | ||||
| Erie County, Ohio | 9.48% | 12.29% | 13.86% | ||||
| Montgomery County, Ohio | 0.73% | 4.62% | 6.22% | ||||
| Ottawa County, Ohio | 19.51% | 4.30% | 6.24% | ||||
| Portage County, Ohio | 9.87% | 5.52% | 8.99% | ||||
| Sandusky County, Ohio | 22.58% | 2.71% | 4.64% | ||||
| Stark County, Ohio | 17.17% | 0.47% | 5.46% | ||||
| Trumbull County, Ohio | 6.22% | 23.00% | 22.43% | ||||
| Wood County, Ohio | 7.99% | 4.84% | 7.13% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Ohio with 51.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Ohio cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93.3 percent of the time (28 out of 30 elections), more than any other state in the country. In that same time frame, Ohio supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 60 to 40 percent. Between 2000 and 2016, Ohio voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Ohio. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 35.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 33 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 34 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 60 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 17.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 99 state House districts in Ohio with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 38.79% | 59.24% | R+20.5 | 30.29% | 65.04% | R+34.7 | R |
| 2 | 39.31% | 58.68% | R+19.4 | 29.22% | 66.46% | R+37.2 | R |
| 3 | 51.29% | 46.45% | D+4.8 | 42.61% | 50.69% | R+8.1 | R |
| 4 | 37.14% | 61.16% | R+24 | 29.02% | 66.54% | R+37.5 | R |
| 5 | 43.04% | 54.83% | R+11.8 | 26.99% | 68.78% | R+41.8 | R |
| 6 | 47.63% | 51.35% | R+3.7 | 49.34% | 47.10% | D+2.2 | R |
| 7 | 47.89% | 50.80% | R+2.9 | 43.80% | 52.04% | R+8.2 | R |
| 8 | 81.58% | 17.75% | D+63.8 | 81.13% | 16.64% | D+64.5 | D |
| 9 | 85.23% | 14.11% | D+71.1 | 86.73% | 10.91% | D+75.8 | D |
| 10 | 89.62% | 9.61% | D+80 | 85.79% | 11.52% | D+74.3 | D |
| 11 | 88.72% | 10.64% | D+78.1 | 83.99% | 13.93% | D+70.1 | D |
| 12 | 84.03% | 15.46% | D+68.6 | 82.01% | 15.91% | D+66.1 | D |
| 13 | 76.21% | 22.24% | D+54 | 72.94% | 22.56% | D+50.4 | D |
| 14 | 63.03% | 35.54% | D+27.5 | 53.61% | 42.03% | D+11.6 | D |
| 15 | 59.18% | 39.28% | D+19.9 | 48.53% | 46.89% | D+1.6 | D |
| 16 | 49.37% | 49.54% | R+0.2 | 50.78% | 45.09% | D+5.7 | R |
| 17 | 61.41% | 36.78% | D+24.6 | 53.34% | 41.75% | D+11.6 | D |
| 18 | 70.04% | 27.78% | D+42.3 | 73.61% | 20.76% | D+52.8 | D |
| 19 | 47.99% | 50.56% | R+2.6 | 51.84% | 42.94% | D+8.9 | R |
| 20 | 57.45% | 41.22% | D+16.2 | 54.13% | 41.35% | D+12.8 | D |
| 21 | 48.03% | 50.52% | R+2.5 | 54.17% | 40.64% | D+13.5 | R |
| 22 | 65.70% | 32.50% | D+33.2 | 67.15% | 27.74% | D+39.4 | D |
| 23 | 48.63% | 49.65% | R+1 | 44.07% | 50.55% | R+6.5 | R |
| 24 | 48.32% | 50.18% | R+1.9 | 52.82% | 42.02% | D+10.8 | R |
| 25 | 84.94% | 13.90% | D+71 | 82.21% | 14.45% | D+67.8 | D |
| 26 | 82.21% | 16.89% | D+65.3 | 78.59% | 18.45% | D+60.1 | D |
| 27 | 37.72% | 60.95% | R+23.2 | 44.19% | 50.48% | R+6.3 | R |
| 28 | 47.68% | 51.09% | R+3.4 | 49.74% | 45.54% | D+4.2 | R |
| 29 | 36.38% | 61.99% | R+25.6 | 32.63% | 63.29% | R+30.7 | R |
| 30 | 29.86% | 68.57% | R+38.7 | 29.47% | 65.80% | R+36.3 | R |
| 31 | 68.65% | 29.81% | D+38.8 | 69.01% | 26.01% | D+43 | D |
| 32 | 77.38% | 21.44% | D+55.9 | 76.98% | 19.40% | D+57.6 | D |
| 33 | 74.59% | 24.41% | D+50.2 | 74.33% | 22.24% | D+52.1 | D |
| 34 | 77.67% | 21.29% | D+56.4 | 74.56% | 22.10% | D+52.5 | D |
| 35 | 65.71% | 32.53% | D+33.2 | 54.68% | 40.82% | D+13.9 | D |
| 36 | 51.22% | 47.16% | D+4.1 | 43.84% | 51.40% | R+7.6 | R |
| 37 | 48.21% | 50.59% | R+2.4 | 48.22% | 47.58% | D+0.6 | R |
| 38 | 45.12% | 53.31% | R+8.2 | 39.47% | 56.20% | R+16.7 | R |
| 39 | 83.01% | 15.69% | D+67.3 | 77.40% | 18.70% | D+58.7 | D |
| 40 | 42.26% | 56.01% | R+13.7 | 37.44% | 58.22% | R+20.8 | R |
| 41 | 41.76% | 56.43% | R+14.7 | 41.26% | 53.19% | R+11.9 | R |
| 42 | 37.30% | 61.04% | R+23.7 | 34.78% | 60.50% | R+25.7 | R |
| 43 | 52.03% | 46.30% | D+5.7 | 44.83% | 51.71% | R+6.9 | R |
| 44 | 85.18% | 13.57% | D+71.6 | 78.27% | 17.63% | D+60.6 | D |
| 45 | 67.48% | 30.35% | D+37.1 | 54.70% | 38.87% | D+15.8 | D |
| 46 | 61.17% | 36.89% | D+24.3 | 51.98% | 42.46% | D+9.5 | D |
| 47 | 44.22% | 54.03% | R+9.8 | 39.17% | 55.41% | R+16.2 | R |
| 48 | 45.37% | 52.95% | R+7.6 | 38.85% | 56.51% | R+17.7 | R |
| 49 | 63.88% | 33.96% | D+29.9 | 50.58% | 44.46% | D+6.1 | D |
| 50 | 42.15% | 56.06% | R+13.9 | 32.22% | 63.32% | R+31.1 | R |
| 51 | 39.52% | 58.86% | R+19.3 | 34.67% | 60.85% | R+26.2 | R |
| 52 | 32.15% | 66.62% | R+34.5 | 34.41% | 61.10% | R+26.7 | R |
| 53 | 37.68% | 60.48% | R+22.8 | 31.90% | 64.04% | R+32.1 | R |
| 54 | 33.88% | 64.77% | R+30.9 | 35.15% | 59.94% | R+24.8 | R |
| 55 | 54.00% | 44.36% | D+9.6 | 46.06% | 49.11% | R+3 | R |
| 56 | 66.42% | 31.87% | D+34.5 | 56.04% | 39.48% | D+16.6 | D |
| 57 | 45.16% | 52.88% | R+7.7 | 33.67% | 61.31% | R+27.6 | R |
| 58 | 77.98% | 20.84% | D+57.1 | 63.99% | 32.77% | D+31.2 | D |
| 59 | 51.32% | 47.23% | D+4.1 | 39.03% | 57.44% | R+18.4 | D |
| 60 | 53.77% | 44.35% | D+9.4 | 43.53% | 51.59% | R+8.1 | D |
| 61 | 44.47% | 54.03% | R+9.6 | 37.08% | 58.60% | R+21.5 | R |
| 62 | 27.91% | 70.65% | R+42.7 | 24.13% | 71.55% | R+47.4 | R |
| 63 | 60.72% | 37.58% | D+23.1 | 44.17% | 51.91% | R+7.7 | D |
| 64 | 59.27% | 38.87% | D+20.4 | 44.19% | 51.55% | R+7.4 | D |
| 65 | 31.46% | 66.93% | R+35.5 | 28.92% | 66.19% | R+37.3 | R |
| 66 | 33.65% | 64.53% | R+30.9 | 23.17% | 73.04% | R+49.9 | R |
| 67 | 38.37% | 60.33% | R+22 | 39.82% | 55.21% | R+15.4 | R |
| 68 | 36.74% | 61.59% | R+24.9 | 34.19% | 61.06% | R+26.9 | R |
| 69 | 41.18% | 57.12% | R+15.9 | 35.30% | 60.15% | R+24.9 | R |
| 70 | 39.57% | 58.40% | R+18.8 | 28.98% | 66.22% | R+37.2 | R |
| 71 | 44.17% | 53.76% | R+9.6 | 36.24% | 58.84% | R+22.6 | R |
| 72 | 41.74% | 56.02% | R+14.3 | 26.53% | 69.18% | R+42.6 | R |
| 73 | 38.72% | 59.60% | R+20.9 | 37.58% | 56.86% | R+19.3 | R |
| 74 | 39.24% | 59.00% | R+19.8 | 29.26% | 66.33% | R+37.1 | R |
| 75 | 55.14% | 42.80% | D+12.3 | 45.12% | 49.88% | R+4.8 | D |
| 76 | 40.16% | 58.30% | R+18.1 | 36.58% | 59.26% | R+22.7 | R |
| 77 | 42.94% | 55.55% | R+12.6 | 36.83% | 58.45% | R+21.6 | R |
| 78 | 43.27% | 54.75% | R+11.5 | 27.72% | 67.97% | R+40.3 | R |
| 79 | 50.25% | 48.15% | D+2.1 | 39.71% | 55.79% | R+16.1 | R |
| 80 | 30.58% | 67.60% | R+37 | 23.49% | 72.12% | R+48.6 | R |
| 81 | 36.13% | 61.79% | R+25.7 | 23.47% | 71.04% | R+47.6 | R |
| 82 | 35.40% | 62.61% | R+27.2 | 23.64% | 71.47% | R+47.8 | R |
| 83 | 35.44% | 62.41% | R+27 | 25.53% | 68.92% | R+43.4 | R |
| 84 | 22.84% | 75.48% | R+52.6 | 15.84% | 80.56% | R+64.7 | R |
| 85 | 34.91% | 63.23% | R+28.3 | 23.23% | 72.46% | R+49.2 | R |
| 86 | 40.44% | 57.59% | R+17.2 | 29.69% | 64.99% | R+35.3 | R |
| 87 | 37.79% | 59.89% | R+22.1 | 23.50% | 71.42% | R+47.9 | R |
| 88 | 48.08% | 49.40% | R+1.3 | 33.72% | 59.59% | R+25.9 | R |
| 89 | 53.82% | 44.44% | D+9.4 | 40.79% | 54.12% | R+13.3 | R |
| 90 | 45.61% | 52.45% | R+6.8 | 28.10% | 68.50% | R+40.4 | R |
| 91 | 37.47% | 60.53% | R+23.1 | 23.48% | 72.83% | R+49.3 | R |
| 92 | 44.40% | 54.02% | R+9.6 | 30.49% | 65.30% | R+34.8 | R |
| 93 | 38.50% | 59.36% | R+20.9 | 22.81% | 73.57% | R+50.8 | R |
| 94 | 52.86% | 44.54% | D+8.3 | 41.52% | 53.47% | R+12 | R |
| 95 | 39.50% | 58.11% | R+18.6 | 24.30% | 71.52% | R+47.2 | R |
| 96 | 47.46% | 50.40% | R+2.9 | 29.81% | 66.31% | R+36.5 | D |
| 97 | 45.24% | 52.60% | R+7.4 | 29.04% | 66.33% | R+37.3 | R |
| 98 | 40.54% | 57.23% | R+16.7 | 27.38% | 67.61% | R+40.2 | R |
| 99 | 52.60% | 45.25% | D+7.4 | 37.09% | 58.30% | R+21.2 | D |
| Total | 50.67% | 47.69% | D+3 | 43.69% | 51.84% | R+8.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Ohio's 10th Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Ohio's 10th Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, "Ohio 2016 March Primary Candidate List," accessed March 11, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
