Trifecta vulnerability in the 2026 elections
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According to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, nine state government trifectas are vulnerable in the 2026 elections. Democrats are defending four vulnerable trifectas and Republicans are defending five. On this page, we assess the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking and of new state government trifectas forming in 2026.
Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. This assessment considers:
- The race ratings for the gubernatorial election.
- The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the upper chamber.
- The percentage of seats up for election required to flip control of the lower chamber.
Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.
Highly vulnerable trifectas
The Democratic trifecta in Maine was rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip both the senate and the house. Democrats have 20-14-1 majority in the senate and a 75-72-3 majority with one vacancy in the house. Republicans need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and four seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.
The Democratic trifecta in Oregon was also rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip the state senate, where Democrats have a 18-12 majority. Democrats have a 37-23 majority in the state house. Republicans need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and eight seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.
Maine has had a Democratic trifecta since 2019. Oregon has had a Democratic trifecta since 2007, except for while the house was under split control in 2011 and 2012.
The Republican trifecta in Texas was rated highly vulnerable because fewer than five seats would be required to flip the state senate, where Republicans have a 18-12 majority with one vacancy. Republicans have a 88-62 majority in the state house. Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber and 14 seats to win a majority in the lower chamber.
Texas has had a Republican trifecta since 2003.
Other vulnerable trifectas
Democratic trifectas in New Mexico and Washington were rated somewhat vulnerable. Republican trifectas in Iowa, Montana, and New Hampshire were rated somewhat vulnerable, and the Republican trifecta in Georgia was rated moderately vulnerable.
Potential new trifectas
Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. Possible Democratic trifecta pickups are Kentucky and North Carolina, while possible Republican pickups are Alaska and Kansas. In Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin, either party could establish a state government trifecta.
Additional information
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 39 state government trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 16 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 11 states have a divided government where neither party has a trifecta.
Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2026 and 88 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers will hold elections. Trifecta status is at stake in 46 states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in:
- 21 of the 23 states with Republican trifectas,
- 14 of the 16 states with Democratic trifectas, and
- 11 of the 11 states with divided government.
Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," said NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]
Heading into the 2026 elections, Virginia is the most recent state to become a trifecta, when Democrats won the governorship in 2025. The 2024 elections resulted in Democrats losing two trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota. Republicans neither gained nor lost trifectas in 2024. Between 1992 and 2025, 118 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
The 2025 and 2024 versions of this analysis can be found here and here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 16 trifectas Highly vulnerable: 2 Somewhat vulnerable: 2 |
Republican Party Current status: 23 trifectas Highly vulnerable: 1 Moderately vulnerable: 1 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 |
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Vulnerable trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Slight possibility: 1 Low possibility: 1 |
Toss-ups Possibility for either party: 7 |
Predicted Republican pickups Significant possibility: 1 Moderate possibility: 1 |
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Potential new trifectas
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Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its vulnerable trifectas.
Democratic Party
- Democrats could gain nine trifectas.The Democrats' best-case scenario is to gain nine trifectas, increasing the total number of Democratic trifectas to 25.
The Democrats' best-case scenario is to gain trifectas in Arizona, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Democrats—gaining nine trifectas and breaking five Republican trifectas.
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| States | 50 | 25 | 18 | 7 |
| Population | 339,408,738[2] | 194,834,934 | 92,603,603 | 51,970,201 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 57.4% | 27.3% | 15.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Republican Party
- Republicans could gain nine trifectas.The Republicans' best case scenario is to gain nine trifectas, increasing the number of Republican trifectas to 32.
The Republicans' best-case scenario is to gain trifectas in Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Republicans—gaining nine trifectas and breaking four Democratic trifectas.
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| States | 50 | 12 | 32 | 6 |
| Population | 339,408,738[3] | 132,728,858 | 191,045,484 | 15,634,396 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 39.1% | 56.3% | 4.6% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Trifecta status
The map below highlights states based on their trifecta status. Hover over or click on a state below to learn about which party controls each component of the trifecta.
The following table shows the status of state government—divided control, Democratic trifecta, or Republican trifecta—in each state. It also includes the year of the last change to each state's trifecta status.
Percentage of Americans living under trifecta government
The chart below shows the percentage of the population living under Democratic trifectas, Republican trifectas, and divided governments. Population figures are taken from the U.S. Census Bureau's July 2024 estimates.[4]
| Total U.S. population | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 339,408,738[5] | 132,728,858 | 140,863,065 | 65,816,815 | |
| 100% | 39.1% | 41.5% | 19.4% | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Methodology
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands. The sum of the three scores determines the overall rating, with higher scores representing more vulnerable trifectas. Additionally, if any single trifecta component scores a 2 in its individual assessment, the trifecta is considered highly vulnerable regardless of the overall score.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 4-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2025, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2025, vulnerability was calculated as follows:
| 2 | Highly vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, at the time of the 2025 elections, the Republican Party controlled the Virginia governorship while the Democratic Party had majority control in both Virginia legislative chambers. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change party control. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
The scores of the individual components are added together to assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2025 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2024 elections
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 31, 2025
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 31, 2025
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2024," accessed January 7, 2025
- ↑ Excludes the 702,250 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
