United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Elections in Arizona, 2022

• Primary date: Aug. 2
• Mail-in registration deadline: July 5
• Online reg. deadline: July 5
• In-person reg. deadline: July 5

• Early voting starts: July 6
• Early voting ends: July 29
• Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• Absentee/mail-in deadline: Aug. 2

---

On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local judges • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • 

2024 → ← 2020
U.S. Senate, Arizona
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 4, 2022
Primary: August 2, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 Pre-election incumbent: Mark Kelly (Democratic)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th Arizona elections, 2022 U.S. Congress elections, 2022 U.S. Senate elections, 2022 U.S. House elections, 2022 Alabama U.S. Senate raceAlaska U.S. Senate raceArizona U.S. Senate raceArkansas U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceColorado U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceGeorgia U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIdaho U.S. Senate raceIllinois U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceIowa U.S. Senate raceKansas U.S. Senate raceKentucky U.S. Senate raceLouisiana U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMissouri U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Hampshire U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Carolina U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate raceOklahoma U.S. Senate raceOregon U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceSouth Carolina U.S. Senate raceSouth Dakota U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceSubmit

Blake Masters defeated Jim Lamon, Mark Brnovich, and two other candidates in the Republican primary for United States Senate in Arizona on August 2, 2022. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) ran for re-election.

Masters, a tech entrepreneur, co-authored Zero to One: Notes on a Startup, a business book based on a class tech investor Peter Thiel taught at Stanford. Masters joined Thiel Capital in 2014 and was named president of the Thiel foundation in 2015. Masters supported increased regulation of technology companies and privatizing Social Security. Thiel, former President Donald Trump (R), and TV show host Tucker Carlson endorsed Masters.

Lamon founded DEPCOM Power, a solar energy company he sold in 2021. Lamon largely self-funded his campaign. According to Open Secrets, Lamon contributed $14M to his campaign as of August 2, 2022, or 93% of all funds donated. Lamon cited U.S.-China trade relations as a top issue, saying, "Communist China is the biggest threat to our economic security and national sovereignty." The Conservative Political Action Coalition, the National Border Patrol Council, and a number of state legislators endorsed Lamon.

Brnovich, a career prosecutor, was elected Arizona’s attorney general in 2014. Before that, Brnovich served as an assistant attorney general from 1998 to 2003 and as the director of Arizona’s Department of Gaming from 2009 to 2013. Brnovich highlighted the legal challenges his office brought against President Joe Biden's (D) tax and immigration policies, among others. TV show host Sean Hannity and radio host Mark Levin endorsed Brnovich.

All three candidates cited border security as a top issue. Brnovich highlighted his record as attorney general, saying he challenged border measures such as the 100-day pause on deportations. Masters said he would increase the size of the border patrol and use hi-tech surveillance at the border. Lamon said he would end sanctuary cities and called the border a "breeding ground for trafficking of illegal drugs, sex trafficking (including children), and even some known terrorists." All three candidates said they supported finishing the construction of a border wall.

Brnovich and Lamon criticized Masters for his relationship with Thiel. Brnovich said, "I know that the answer to Big Tech is not having someone that's financed by Big Tech and made all their money in Big Tech." Masters said that his understanding of tech companies would allow him to confront them better. "I know how it works," Masters said.

In June, Saving Arizona PAC, a political action committee affiliated with Thiel, released an ad criticizing Lamon's solar company for importing supplies from China and said the company was "associated with forced slave labor." Lamon said everyone in the energy industry used Chinese parts and added, “This ad paid for by Blake Masters’ big tech super PAC is ridiculous and comically hypocritical given Masters’ extremely recent and proactive business dealings with China.”

The 2020 presidential election was a top issue in the race as well. Trump criticized Brnovich, saying he didn't do enough as Arizona’s attorney general to investigate fraud in the election. Brnovich, who opened an ongoing civil investigation into the 2020 results in Arizona, said, "I understand [Trump’s] frustration, but as I've said previously, I will continue to follow the facts and evidence and do what the law requires."

Masters and Lamon, who signed his name on a list of alternate Arizona presidential electors ahead of the 2021 Electoral College vote count, said they wouldn’t have voted to certify the election. Masters said he believed Trump won the election..

Michael McGuire and Justin Olson also ran in the primary.

At the time of the primary, three election forecasters rated the general election a Toss-up, meaning the race was expected to be competitive.

There are no primary election runoffs in Arizona. Primary election winners are determined via plurality vote, meaning that the candidate with the highest number of votes wins even if he or she did not win an outright majority of votes cast.

Michael McGuire (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.

This page focuses on Arizona's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

• Election news (April-July 2022)
  • July 29, 2022: Rasmussen Reports released a poll of 710 respondents showing Masters at 31%, Brnovich at 16%, and Lamon at 19%, with 15% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4%.

  • July 29, 2022: OH Predictive Insights released a poll of 502 respondents showing Masters at 36%, Brnovich at 12%, and Lamon at 21%, with 22% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4.4%.

  • July 28, 2022: The Trafalgar Group released a poll of 1071 respondents showing Masters at 35%, Brnovich at 15%, and Lamon at 27%, with 10% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 2.9%.

  • July 15, 2022: Quarterly campaign finance filings were due. Lamon reported raising $15.1 million (including $14 million in loans he made to his campaign) and spending $14.7 million, Masters reported raising $5 million and spending $3.4 million, and Brnovich reported raising $3.1 million and spending $2.6 million over the election cycle.

  • July 13, 2022: Lamon, Masters, and McGuire participated in a debate hosted by Newsmax.

  • July 8, 2022: OH Predictive Insights released a poll of 515 respondents showing Masters at 25%, Brnovich at 14%, and Lamon at 18%, with 45% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4.3%.

  • June 30, 2022: Public Policy Polling released a poll of 1077 respondents showing Masters at 29%, Brnovich at 15%, and Lamon at 10%, with 41% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4%.

  • June 23, 2022: Brnovich, Lamon, Masters, McGuire and Olson participated in a debate hosted by FreedomWorks.

  • June 10, 2022: The Trafalgar Group released a poll of 1077 respondents showing Masters at 29%, Brnovich at 24%, and Lamon at 17%, with 22% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 2.9%.

  • June 2, 2022: President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Masters.

  • April 29, 2022: The Trafalgar Group released a poll of 1064 respondents showing Lamon at 25%, Brnovich at 24%, and Masters at 19%, with 21% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 2.9%.

  • April 13, 2022: OH Predictive Insights released a poll of 500 respondents showing Brnovich at 50%, Lamon at 16% and Masters at 9%, with 44% of respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of ± 4.4%.

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Blake Masters	40.2	327,198
		Jim Lamon	28.1	228,467
		Mark Brnovich	17.7	144,092
		Michael McGuire	8.7	71,100
		Justin Olson	5.2	41,985
		David Bozic (Write-in)	0.0	138
		Frank Bertone (Write-in)	0.0	88

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 813,068
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Robert Paveza (R)
• James Streeter (R)
• Keerthi Prabhala (R)
• Craig Brittain (R)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Mark Brnovich

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

• Assistant Attorney General - Arizona Attorney General's Office (1998-2003)
• Director - Arizona Department of Gaming (2009-2013)
• Attorney General of Arizona - (Assumed office: 2015)

Biography:  Brnovich received a bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Arizona and a law degree from the University of San Diego School of Law. After working as a prosecutor in Maricopa County Attorney's Office, Brnovich served as an Assistant Attorney General in the Arizona Attorney General's Office from 1998 to 2003 and later as an Assistant United States Attorney for the District of Arizona. Brnovich served as director of the Department of Gaming from 2009 to 2013 and was elected Attorney General of Arizona in 2015.

---

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

---

Brnovich's campaign website said U.S. border policy would be one of his top priorities. "Arizonans want safety and security for their families. Ensuring that is one of the responsibilities of government, but one our elected officials routinely ignore, choosing instead to politicize our safety with politically motivated calls for open borders and the defunding of police. Enough is enough. We’re going to put safety and security before politics," it said. 

---

Brnovich said that, as attorney general, he fought for election integrity. "[I established] the Election Integrity Unit, prosecuting those who violate our election laws, and defending Arizona’s laws in court. But the fight is far from over, and trust will take time to rebuild," he said.

---

Brnovich said, "I’ll fight back as your U.S. Senator. To defend the First and Second Amendment, life, property rights, churches, and personal autonomy. I also believe business owners should be able to run their businesses as they see fit without overbearing Government interference. Rebuilding trust starts and ends with protecting your freedoms every time."

---

Show sources

Sources: Brnovich for U.S. Senate, "Meet Brno," accessed June 23, 2022; Brnovich for U.S. Senate, "Meet Brno," accessed June 23, 2022; Attorney General State of Arizona, "Attorney General Mark Brnovich," accessed June 23, 2022; National Association of Attorneys General, "Attorney General Mark Brnovich," accessed June 23, 2022

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Jim Lamon

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Lamon received a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from the University of Alabama in 1979 and served six years as an Army airborne officer. He worked at Aker Kvaerner, The Shaw Group, and First Solar before founding DEPCOM Power, Inc., a solar power company, in 2013.

---

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

---

Lamon's website lists enforcing border control laws as a priority. "Many of those entering our country illegally have significant issues that put our communities at risk, including: criminal backgrounds, low level skills, diseases and Covid. The scene at the border is a breeding ground for trafficking of illegal drugs, sex trafficking (including children), and even some known terrorists who, no doubt, mean serious harm to our citizens and nation."

---

Lamon said, "I consider election integrity as the most important basis of good social order and will do everything I can to insure it is maintained. I have previously taken it upon myself to do my part to shed light and demand transparency on the 2020 Arizona elections."

---

On U.S.-China relations, Lamon said, "In the Senate, I will stand up to China. I will fight to level the international playing field for American workers and businesses by ensuring that goods coming into the U.S. are appropriately tariffed for their cheap slave labor, unfettered environmental pollution, and unsafe working conditions."

---

Show sources

Sources: Republican Jim Lamon for U.S. Senate, "The Policies," accessed June 23, 2022; Republican Jim Lamon for U.S. Senate, "Standing Up To China," accessed July 1, 2022; Linkedin, "Jim Lamon," accessed June 23, 2022; Republican Jim Lamon U.S. Senate, "About," accessed June 23, 2022

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Blake Masters

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Masters received a bachelor's degree in political science from Stanford University in 2008 and a J.D. from Stanford University Law School in 2012. In 2012, Masters co-founded Judicata, a software startup focused on legal research. In 2014, Masters joined Thiel Capital, and in 2015, he was named president of the Thiel Foundation.

---

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

---

Masters said he would fight to make Arizona safer. "As a father of three young children, I am so sick of this crime and chaos. It’s time to turn this ship around. We need to get control of our border. We need to punish criminals severely. And we need to project strength and competence abroad."

---

On immigration, Masters said he wanted to: "Finish the Wall, Triple the size of Border Patrol, Increase hi-tech surveillance at the border, Mandate E-Verify nationwide, Hire lots more USCIS agents and Magistrate judges to process deportions, and Always oppose amnesty for illegal aliens, period."

---

Masters said, "The 1st Amendment is under attack because Democrats don’t believe in free speech anymore. They threaten, intimidate, and cancel anyone they don’t like. And they have powerful allies in Big Tech and the corporate media, who do the Left’s bidding by censoring conservatives and hiding truths that don’t fit their narrative."

---

Show sources

Sources: Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, "The Masters Plan," accessed June 23, 2022; Linkedin, "Blake Masters," accessed June 23, 2022; AAE Speakers, "Blake Masters," accessed June 23, 2022; Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, "About," accessed June 23, 2022

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Michael McGuire

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I served in the United States Air Force and Air National Guard for over thirty years. As an F-16 fighter pilot, I flew combat missions during the Gulf War and Operation Northern Watch. I was an instructor pilot, and subsequently commander, of the 162nd Fighter Wing based in Tucson. In 2013, Governor Brewer appointed me to be the Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard, where I served for eight years. In 2021, I retired at the rank of Major General after 34 years of service."

---

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

---

Advance American Exceptionalism

---

Uphold the Constitution

---

Secure the border

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

Please list below 3 key messages of your campaign. What are the main points you want voters to remember about your goals for your time in office?

Michael McGuire (R)

Advance American Exceptionalism

Uphold the Constitution

Secure the border

What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?

Michael McGuire (R)

I’m concerned about the direction of our country. Democrats have abandoned their Constitutional duties in favor of radical leftist policies, and many Republicans have forgotten how to fight for our Constitution and conservative principles. We need leaders in Washington who are willing to stand up for our rights, even when it’s not politically convenient. I will not abandon our values in the face of unprecedented government overreach. No other candidate in this race has a record that reflects the experience and leadership necessary to confront our current crises. Running for Senate is not about another title for me; when I entered the Air Force, I took an oath to support and defend our Constitution, and I would continue that service to our nation and Constitution as a US Senator.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Mark Brnovich

June 10, 2021

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Jim Lamon

July 19, 2022

Jun 25, 2022

June 17, 2022

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Blake Masters

July 15, 2022

June 27, 2022

July 12, 2021

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Michael McGuire

July 5, 2022

April 19, 2022

June 8, 2021

View more ads here:

• YouTube
• Facebook

Justin Olson

Have a link to Justin Olson's campaign ads on YouTube? Email us.

• Facebook

Satellite ads

This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.

Saving Arizona PAC

As of July 30, Saving Arizona PAC spent $8,274,704 on ads and other expenditures supporting Masters. A selection of those ads are included below:

June 22, 2022

June 8, 2022

October 4, 2021

View more ads here:

• YouTube

Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

June 23 candidate forum

On June 23, 2022, Brnovich, Lamon, Masters, McGuire, and Olson participated in a candidate forum hosted by FreedomWorks.

• Click here to watch a recording of the event

Click on the link below for summaries of the event:

• CBS

July 13 debate

On July 13, 2022, Lamon, Masters, and McGuire participated in a debate hosted by Newsmax.

• Click here to watch a recording of the event

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

• Newsmax
• CBS

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican U.S. Senate primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

• Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 13 (March 10, 2022)

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

• Blake Masters
• Jim Lamon

Republican primary endorsements
Endorser	Mark Brnovich	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Michael McGuire
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R)  source			✔
U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R)  source			✔
U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R)  source			✔
U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia (R)  source		✔
U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)  source			✔
Arizona State Sen. David Livingston (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Sen. Kelly Townsend (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Walter Blackman (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Judy Burges (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Frank Carroll (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Teresa Martinez (R)  source		✔
Arizona State Rep. Beverly Pingerelli (R)  source		✔
Individuals
Frmr. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett  source		✔
Frmr. Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell  source			✔
Frmr. Acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Thomas Homan  source		✔
Frmr. U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien  source			✔
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin  source				✔
Businessman Peter Thiel  source			✔
Frmr. President Donald Trump  source			✔
Frmr. Acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker  source		✔
Frmr. Acting Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf  source		✔
Organizations
Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs  source		✔
Arizona Police Association  source		✔
Club For Growth PAC  source			✔
Conservative Political Action Coalition  source		✔
National Association of Police Organizations  source		✔
National Border Patrol Council  source		✔
Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona  source	✔
Other
TV show host Tucker Carlson  source			✔
TV show host Sean Hannity  source	✔
Radio host Mark Levin  source	✔

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals. The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times." For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.

U.S. Senate Election in Arizona, 2022: Republican Primary election polls
Poll	Date	Brnovich	Lamon	Masters	McGuire	Olson	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size	Sponsor
Rasmussen Reports	July 29 2022	16%	19%	31%	10%	3%	15%	± 4%	710 LV	Arizona Rock Products Association
OH Predictive Insights	July 29 2022	12%	21%	36%	5%	3%	22%	± 4.4%	502 LV	N/A
The Trafalgar Group	July 28 2022	15%	27%	35%	8%	6%	10%	± 2.9%	1071 LV	N/A
OH Predictive Insights	July 8 2022	14%	18%	25%	6%	2%	45%	± 4.3%	515 LV	N/A
Public Policy Polling	June 28 2022	15%	10%	29%	5%	--	41%	± 4%	595 LV	N/A
The Trafalgar Group	June 7-9 2022	24%	17%	29%	4%	4%	22%	± 2.9%	1077 LV	N/A
The Trafalgar Group	April 25-28 2022	24%	25%	19%	8%	3%	21%	± 2.9%	1064 LV	N/A
OH Predictive Insights	April 4-5 2022	21%	16%	9%	6%	3%	44%	± 4.4%	500 LV	N/A

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2022
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 8, 2022	November 1, 2022	October 25, 2022	October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election. It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees. Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report	Close of books	Filing deadline
Year-end 2021	12/31/2021	1/31/2022
April quarterly	3/31/2022	4/15/2022
July quarterly	6/30/2022	7/15/2022
October quarterly	9/30/2022	10/15/2022
Pre-general	10/19/2022	10/27/2022
Post-general	11/28/2022	12/08/2022
Year-end 2022	12/31/2022	1/31/2023

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Frank Bertone	Republican Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
David Bozic	Republican Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Mark Brnovich	Republican Party	$3,184,415	$3,179,169	$5,245	As of December 31, 2022
Jim Lamon	Republican Party	$19,564,450	$19,553,632	$10,818	As of December 31, 2022
Blake Masters	Republican Party	$15,659,649	$15,559,519	$100,130	As of December 31, 2022
Michael McGuire	Republican Party	$2,715,996	$2,714,376	$1,620	As of December 31, 2022
Justin Olson	Republican Party	$323,230	$297,090	$25,708	As of December 31, 2022
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. *** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate	By election
Mark Brnovich Jim Lamon Blake Masters Michael McGuire Justin Olson	Open Secrets U.S. - Senate Republican primary in Arizona FEC U.S. - Senate Republican primary in Arizona

Satellite spending in Arizona's Senate Republican primary, 2022
Organization	Amount	Date	Purpose
Saving Arizona PAC	$12,231,207	July 30, 2022	Ads in support of Republican Blake Masters and against Republican Jim Lamon

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

• Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
• Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
• State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
• Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Arizona and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Arizona, 2022
District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
Arizona's 1st	David Schweikert	Republican	R+2
Arizona's 2nd	Tom O'Halleran	Democratic	R+6
Arizona's 3rd	Ruben Gallego	Democratic	D+24
Arizona's 4th	Greg Stanton	Democratic	D+2
Arizona's 5th	Andy Biggs	Republican	R+11
Arizona's 6th	Open	Democratic	R+3
Arizona's 7th	Raul Grijalva	Democratic	D+15
Arizona's 8th	Debbie Lesko	Republican	R+10
Arizona's 9th	Paul Gosar	Republican	R+16

2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Arizona
District	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
Arizona's 1st	50.1%	48.6%
Arizona's 2nd	45.3%	53.2%
Arizona's 3rd	74.5%	23.9%
Arizona's 4th	54.2%	43.9%
Arizona's 5th	41.0%	57.4%
Arizona's 6th	49.3%	49.2%
Arizona's 7th	65.6%	32.9%
Arizona's 8th	42.5%	56.1%
Arizona's 9th	36.4%	62.2%

2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:

County-level voting pattern categories
Democratic
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Democratic	D	D	D
Trending Democratic	R	D	D
Battleground Democratic	D	R	D
New Democratic	R	R	D
Republican
Status	2012	2016	2020
Solid Republican	R	R	R
Trending Republican	D	R	R
Battleground Republican	R	D	R
New Republican	D	D	R

Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Arizona county-level statistics, 2020
New Democratic	1	61.8%
Solid Republican	10	20.0%
Solid Democratic	4	18.2%
Total voted Democratic	5	80.0%
Total voted Republican	10	20.0%

Historical voting trends

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

• 9 Democratic wins
• 19 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	N/A	N/A	N/A	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	D

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.

U.S. Senate election results in Arizona
Race	Winner	Runner up
2020	51.2%	48.8%
2018	50.0%	47.6%
2016	53.7%	40.8%
2012	49.2%	46.1%
2010	59.2%	34.7%
Average	52.7	43.6

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.

Gubernatorial election results in Arizona
Race	Winner	Runner up
2018	56.0%	41.8%
2014	53.4%	41.6%
2010	54.3%	42.4%
2006	62.6%	35.4%
2002	46.2%	45.2%
Average	54.5	41.3

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona, November 2022
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	5	7
Republican	0	4	4
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	9	11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Arizona, November 2022
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Doug Ducey
Secretary of State	Katie Hobbs
Attorney General	Mark Brnovich

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Arizona State Legislature as of November 2022.

Arizona State Senate

Party		As of November 2022
	Democratic Party	14
	Republican Party	16
	Vacancies	0
Total		30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party		As of November 2022
	Democratic Party	29
	Republican Party	31
	Vacancies	0
Total		60

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Arizona was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Arizona
	Arizona	United States
Population	6,392,017	308,745,538
Land area (sq mi)	113,652	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White	77.2%	72.5%
Black/African American	4.5%	12.7%
Asian	3.3%	5.5%
Native American	4.5%	0.8%
Pacific Islander	0.2%	0.2%
Other (single race)	6.5%	4.9%
Multiple	3.7%	3.3%
Hispanic/Latino	31.3%	18%
Education
High school graduation rate	87.1%	88%
College graduation rate	29.5%	32.1%
Income
Median household income	$58,945	$62,843
Persons below poverty level	15.1%	13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Arizona in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Ballot-qualified party	0.25% of qualified signers in the state	N/A	4/4/2022	Source
Arizona	U.S. Senate	Unaffiliated	3% of total registered voters who are not members of a ballot-qualified political party	N/A	4/4/2022	Source

Arizona U.S. Senate election history

2020

See also: United States Senate special election in Arizona, 2020

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)

General election

Special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona

The following candidates ran in the special general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly (D)	51.2	1,716,467
		Martha McSally (R)	48.8	1,637,661
	Submit photo	Matthew Dorchester (L) (Write-in)	0.0	379
		Nicholas Glenn (Independent Republican Party) (Write-in)	0.0	152
	Submit photo	Debbie Simmons (R) (Write-in)	0.0	98
		John Schiess (R) (Write-in)	0.0	92
	Submit photo	Christopher Beckett (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	69
		Joshua Rodriguez (Unity Party) (Write-in)	0.0	69
		Mohammad Arif (D) (Write-in)	0.0	68
		Perry Kapadia (D) (Write-in)	0.0	58
	Submit photo	Mathew Haupt (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	37
	Submit photo	Patrick Thomas (R) (Write-in)	0.0	29
		Edward Davida (R) (Write-in)	0.0	28
	Submit photo	Jim Stevens (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	23
	Submit photo	Buzz Stewart (D) (Write-in)	0.0	22
	Submit photo	William Decker (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	21
	Submit photo	Adam Chilton (D) (Write-in)	0.0	19
	Submit photo	Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	17
	Submit photo	Frank Saenz (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	8

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 3,355,317
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Mark Kelly defeated Bo Garcia in the special Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Mark Kelly	99.9	665,620
	Submit photo	Bo Garcia (Write-in)	0.1	451

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 666,071
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Mohammad Arif (D)
• Sheila Bilyeu (D)
• Juan Angel Vasquez (D)

Republican primary election

Special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Incumbent Martha McSally defeated Daniel McCarthy and Sean Lyons in the special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Martha McSally	75.2	551,119
		Daniel McCarthy	24.8	181,511
	Submit photo	Sean Lyons (Write-in)	0.0	210

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 732,840
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Josue Larose (R)
• Craig Brittain (R)
• Paul Burton (R)
• Floyd Getchell (R)
• Mark Cavener (R)

Libertarian primary election

Barry Hess and Alan White ran as write-in candidates in the race. Hess received 329 votes and White received 101 votes. Libertarian write-in candidates were required to receive at least 3,335 votes to make the general election ballot.

2018

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Martha McSally and Angela Green in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kyrsten Sinema (D)	50.0	1,191,100
		Martha McSally (R)	47.6	1,135,200
		Angela Green (G)	2.4	57,442
		Other/Write-in votes	0.0	566

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 2,384,308 (100.00% precincts reporting)
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Deedra Abboud in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kyrsten Sinema	79.3	404,170
		Deedra Abboud	20.7	105,800

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 509,970
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• David Ruben (D)
• Bob Bishop (D)
• Cheryl Fowler (D)
• Richard Sherzan (D)
• Chris Russell (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Martha McSally defeated Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Martha McSally	54.6	357,626
		Kelli Ward	27.6	180,926
		Joe Arpaio	17.8	116,555

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 655,107
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Craig Brittain (R)
• Nicholas Tutora (R)
• Christian Diegel (R)
• Michelle Griffin (R)

Green primary election

No Green candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Eve Reyes-Aguirre (G)

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Doug Marks (L)

2016

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	John McCain Incumbent	53.7%	1,359,267
	Democratic	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	1,031,245
	Green	Gary Swing	5.5%	138,634
	N/A	Write-in	0.1%	1,584
Total Votes				2,530,730
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

U.S. Senate, Arizona Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
John McCain Incumbent	51.2%	302,532
Kelli Ward	39.9%	235,988
Alex Meluskey	5.3%	31,159
Clair Van Steenwyk	3.6%	21,476
Total Votes		591,155
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

{{SEP Collapsible list |title=Click [show] to view election results dating to 2012 and earlier. |

2012

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jeff Flake	49.2%	1,104,457
	Democratic	Richard Carmona	46.2%	1,036,542
	Libertarian	Marc Victor	4.6%	102,109
	Independent	Steven Watts (Write-in)	0%	290
	Independent	Don Manspeaker (Write-in)	0%	24
Total Votes				2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

United States Senate Democratic Primary, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Richard Carmona	100%	289,881
Total Votes				289,881
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf

United States Senate Republican Primary, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jeff Flake	69.3%	357,360
	Republican	Wil Cardon	21.3%	110,150
	Republican	Clair Van Steenwyk	5.7%	29,159
	Republican	Bryan Hackbarth	3.7%	19,174
	Republican	John Lyon (write-in)	0%	126
	Republican	Luis Acle (write-in)	0%	56
Total Votes				516,025
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf

United States Senate Libertarian Primary, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Libertarian	Marc Victor (write-in)	100%	591
Total Votes				591
Source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf

See also

• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022
• United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2022
• United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2022
• United States Senate elections, 2022
• U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2022

External links

Suggest a link

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ruben Gallego (D)

Mark Kelly (D)

Representatives

District 1

David Schweikert (R)

District 2

Eli Crane (R)

District 3

Yassamin Ansari (D)

District 4

Greg Stanton (D)

District 5

Andy Biggs (R)

District 6

Juan Ciscomani (R)

District 7

Adelita Grijalva (D)

District 8

Abraham Hamadeh (R)

District 9

Paul Gosar (R)

Republican Party (6)

Democratic Party (5)

Ballotpedia

About

Overview • What people are saying • Support Ballotpedia • Contact • Contribute • Job opportunities

---

Executive: Leslie Graves, Founder and CEO • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer

Communications: Alison Graves, Director of Communications • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Frank Festa • Sarah Groat • Nathaniel Harwood • Dillon Redmond
External Relations: Geoff Pallay, Director of External Relations • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Ashley Fleming • Thomas Mardik • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski, Director of Operations • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Tech: Matt Latourelle, Director of Technology Operations • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Joseph Sanchez • Mary Susmitha

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen

---

Editorial Content

Josh Altic, Director of Content • Daniel Anderson, Associate Director of Elections & Data • Cory Eucalitto, Associate Director of Features • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor of Ballot Measures • Mandy McConnell, Managing Editor of News • Doug Kronaizl, Managing Editor of Local Expansion • Abbey Smith, Managing Editor of Elections • Janie Valentine, Managing Editor of Law • Joel Williams, Managing Editor of Events • Andrew Bahl • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Jon Dunn • Victoria Edwards • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Brianna Hosea • Molly Kehoe • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Nathan Maxwell • Jimmy McAllister • Brandon McCauley • Ellie Mikus • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Annelise Reinwald • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Emma Soukup • Alexis Thacker • Mina Vogel • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox