United States Congress elections, 2018
A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress (33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) were up for election on November 6, 2018.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 52 seat majority in the Senate. Democrats held 46 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party was on the defensive in 2018, as they were left defending 25 seats (two of which were held by independents), while only eight seats up for election in 2018 were held by Republican incumbents. The Democratic Party was further weakened by having to defend seats in a number of states which supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority of 241 seats to Democrats' 194 seats in the House. Due to the general lack of competition, it was unlikely that the Democratic Party would be able to flip control of the chamber in 2018. Democratic gains were predicted though, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election.
Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm. The party of a newly elected president has gained seats in the House in the following midterm only twice since then; Democrats gained nine seats in 1934 following Franklin D. Roosevelt's first presidential election in 1932, and Republicans gained eight seats in 2002 following George W. Bush's election to the presidency in 2000. Due to this trend, more House seats that were held by Republican incumbents were expected to be in play than in a normal congressional election.[1]
Presidential data
Senate
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.
- There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.
- There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
- There were four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:
House
The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. They can be used to predict which districts are expected to be competitive in the 2018 elections.[2]
- There were 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08
- There were 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03
- There were 20 House seats that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by Donald Trump in 2016: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-01, MN-02, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NV-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, PA-17, and WI-03
- There were eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, KS-03, NJ-07, TX-07, and TX-32
U.S. Senate
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans had 52 Senate seats while Democrats had 46 Senate seats. Two seats were held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party maintained its Senate majority in the 2016 elections when it only lost two seats.
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Republican Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
There were 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party needed to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This was unlikely as there were so few Republican seats up for election.[3]
Race ratings
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.
U.S. House
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained a total of six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.[4]
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 235 | |
| Republican Party | 235 | 200[5] | |
| Vacancies | 7 | 0 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Race ratings
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.
Media coverage
The media highlighted various events that potentially impacted the outcome of the 2018 mid-term elections. This included major policy developments, the outcome of certain interim or special elections, and noteworthy national and international events. Such stories assessed the impact of these major events on the 2018 elections for the U.S. House or U.S. Senate, and sometimes, both.
Democratic primaries
- Katrina vanden Heuvel discussed the state of the progressive insurgency in the Democratic Party in an Atlantic article (August 16, 2018):
- "How do you cover an insurgency like the one now roiling the Democratic Party? The mainstream media’s treatment would give readers a severe case of whiplash. The 2018 primaries had barely started when The New York Times announced the virtual demise of the movement sparked by Bernie Sanders. Then, when newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez eviscerated Joe Crowley, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House, in a New York primary, the Times ran a story headlined There Is a Revolution on the Left, warning that 'a new generation of confrontational progressives has put Democrats at the precipice of a sweeping transition.'
- "To date, the reform movement has made its greatest gains in the war of ideas. This shouldn’t be surprising. The reforms that the activists are championing are bold, striking, and address real needs: Medicare for all, tuition-free public college, a $15 minimum wage, universal pre-K, a federal jobs guarantee, a commitment to rebuild America, a challenge to big-money politics, police and prison reforms, and a fierce commitment to liberty and justice for all."
- "Moreover, the media too often assume that if the movement candidate has lost, a 'moderate' has won. ... The media need to focus less on the horse races and more on what’s being built and what’s being discarded. The insurgency is neither on its deathbed nor about to sweep out the old. Indeed, Democrats are still in the early stages of a huge debate on the party’s direction. Insurgent candidates are only starting to build the capacity to run serious challengers."[6]
Republican primaries
- Jonathan Bernstein discussed the significance of Trump's endorsement in Republican primaries in a Bloomberg article (August 22, 2018):
- "I’ve been impressed with Trump’s recent successes in primary endorsements. After the fiasco in the Alabama Senate special election, he’s been picking likely winners who then won, making Trump look good — and he’s restrained himself and stayed out of some contests in which the winner was difficult to determine in advance or where the Trumpiest candidate seemed unlikely to win. That streak ends in Wyoming."
- "The first tangible consequence for Trump is that he’ll most likely have a Wyoming governor who resents the president’s attempt to defeat him."
- "But the real danger here is that Republican politicians begin to believe that Trump isn’t a threat to them after all. My guess — and it’s only speculation — is that this has been true all along. While a presidential endorsement might move quite a few votes in low-interest primary elections because voters are looking for any kind of cue about who the acceptable candidate might be, it’s a lot harder for endorsements to move votes against an incumbent. Not impossible, but difficult."[7]
Bannon's challenge to establishment Republicans
Former White House chief strategist and Breitbart chair Steve Bannon pledged to work to remove establishment Republicans from Washington, D.C., through competitive primaries. "We’re going after these guys tooth and nail. We are declaring war on the Republican establishment that does not back the agenda that Donald Trump ran on. This agenda works. The American people voted for it," Bannon said during an interview on October 10, 2017.[8] Axios reported that Bannon planned to back the following possible and declared candidates:[9]
- Rep. Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee
- Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia
- Matt Rosendale in Montana
- Josh Hawley in Missouri
- Danny Tarkanian in Nevada
- Kelli Ward in Arizona
- Chris McDaniel in Mississippi
- Rick Scott in Florida
- Roy Moore in Alabama
- Erik Prince in Wyoming
- Ann LePage in Maine
Special elections
Special elections made up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there were more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.
Expected special elections
The table below displays a running list of the expected special elections to the 115th United States Congress.
The table below lists special elections to the 115th United States Congress.
Election issues
Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- United States Congress elections, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ The American Presidency Project, "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections," accessed February 6, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
- ↑ Slate, "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
- ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
- ↑ The Nation, "The Democratic Insurgency Is Winning the War of Ideas," August 26, 2018
- ↑ Bloomberg, "Trump Endorsements No Longer Look Like a Golden Touch," August 22, 2018
- ↑ Newsweek, "Steve Bannon Declares War on Republicans, Calls for Trump Critic Bob Corker to Resign," October 10, 2017
- ↑ Axios, "Steve Bannon's next victims," October 8, 2017
- ↑ While technically a general election, the April 18 election was functionally a top-two primary because no candidate received the 50 percent of the vote required to win the race outright.
- ↑ June 20, 2017, runoff election between Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff.
