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Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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Revision as of 12:35, 7 November 2018 by Kayla Harris (contribs) (Text replacement - "{{Ballotpedia Election Updates}}" to "")
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General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dwight Evans
Dwight Evans (D)
 
93.4
 
287,610
Image of Bryan Leib
Bryan Leib (R) Candidate Connection
 
6.6
 
20,387

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 307,997
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020 →
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Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 20, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+41
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 7th (special) • 15th (special) • 18th (special)
Pennsylvania elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2018.




Results of 2018 redistricting

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.

The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.

Old district[1] Prior incumbent Prior 2016 presidential result New 2016 presidential result
2nd District Dwight Evans (D) D+82.8 D+83.9

Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.

Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3

Incumbent Dwight Evans defeated Bryan Leib in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dwight Evans
Dwight Evans (D)
 
93.4
 
287,610
Image of Bryan Leib
Bryan Leib (R) Candidate Connection
 
6.6
 
20,387

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 307,997
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3

Incumbent Dwight Evans defeated Kevin Johnson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dwight Evans
Dwight Evans
 
80.8
 
73,800
Image of Kevin Johnson
Kevin Johnson
 
19.2
 
17,548

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 91,348
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3

Bryan Leib advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 3 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bryan Leib
Bryan Leib Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
3,430

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 3,430
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dwight Evans Democratic Party $1,124,861 $1,139,135 $21,481 As of December 31, 2018
Bryan Leib Republican Party $18,077 $11,021 $2,166 As of September 30, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+41, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 41 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District the third most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.72. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.72 points toward that party.[8]

District history

2016

See also: Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Kelly (R) was unopposed in the 2016 election cycle. He faced no general election challenger and was unopposed in the Republican primary as well. The primary elections took place on April 26, 2016. [9][10]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Kelly Incumbent 100% 244,893
Total Votes 244,893
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

2014

See also: Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

Mike Kelly won re-election to the United States House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Dan LaVallee in the general election.

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Kelly Incumbent 60.6% 113,859
     Democratic Dan LaVallee 39.4% 73,931
Total Votes 187,790
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Erie County, Pennsylvania 1.56% 16.03% 19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania 19.31% 4.81% 8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania 3.78% 4.71% 12.30%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018

Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Pennsylvania
 PennsylvaniaU.S.
Total population:12,791,904316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):44,7433,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:81.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11%12.6%
Asian:3.1%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,599$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[13][14]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.9% 0.7%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.7% 5.4%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.3% 10.4%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.0% Republican Party George Bush 48.5% 2.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.6% Republican Party George Bush 46.4% 4.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Patrick Toomey 48.8% Democratic Party Katie McGinty 47.3% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Bob Casey 53.7% Republican Party Tom Smith 44.6% 9.1%
2010 Republican Party Patrick Toomey 51.0% Democratic Party Joe Sestak 49.0% 2.0%
2006 Democratic Party Bob Casey 58.7% Republican Party Rick Santorum 41.3% 17.4%
2004 Republican Party Arlen Specter 52.6% Democratic Party Joseph Hoeffel 42.0% 10.6%
2000 Republican Party Rick Santorum 52.4% Democratic Party Ron Klink 45.5% 6.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.

Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Tom Wolf 54.9% Republican Party Thomas Corbett 45.1% 9.8%
2010 Republican Party Thomas Corbett 54.5% Democratic Party Dan Onorato 45.5% 9.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ed Rendell 60.4% Republican Party Lynn Swann 39.6% 20.8%
2002 Democratic Party Ed Rendell 53.4% Republican Party Mike Fisher 44.3% 9.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2014 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2012 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2010 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 8 42.1% Democratic Party 11 57.9% D+3
2004 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2002 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2000 Republican Party 11 52.4% Democratic Party 10 47.6% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D _


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
  2. ↑ The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
  3. ↑ District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
  4. ↑ District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
  5. ↑ Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
  6. ↑ Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
  10. ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
  14. ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
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