United States Congress elections, 2018
A total of 468 seats in the U.S. Congress (33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) were up for election on November 6, 2018.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 52 seat majority in the Senate. Democrats held 46 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party was on the defensive in 2018, as they were left defending 25 seats (two of which were held by independents), while only eight seats up for election in 2018 were held by Republican incumbents. The Democratic Party was further weakened by having to defend seats in a number of states which supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority of 241 seats to Democrats' 194 seats in the House. Due to the general lack of competition, it was unlikely that the Democratic Party would be able to flip control of the chamber in 2018. Democratic gains were predicted though, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election.
Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm. The party of a newly elected president has gained seats in the House in the following midterm only twice since then; Democrats gained nine seats in 1934 following Franklin D. Roosevelt's first presidential election in 1932, and Republicans gained eight seats in 2002 following George W. Bush's election to the presidency in 2000. Due to this trend, more House seats that were held by Republican incumbents were expected to be in play than in a normal congressional election.[1]
Presidential data
Senate
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.
- There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.
- There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
- There were four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016:
House
The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. They can be used to predict which districts are expected to be competitive in the 2018 elections.[2]
- There were 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: AZ-02, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-24, PA-06, PA-07, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-10, and WA-08
- There were 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016: AZ-01, IA-02, IL-17, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-18, PA-17, and WI-03
- There were 20 House seats that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by Donald Trump in 2016: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-01, MN-02, MN-08, NH-01, NJ-02, NJ-03, NV-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-18, NY-19, NY-21, PA-17, and WI-03
- There were eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: AZ-02, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, KS-03, NJ-07, TX-07, and TX-32
U.S. Senate
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans had 52 Senate seats while Democrats had 46 Senate seats. Two seats were held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party maintained its Senate majority in the 2016 elections when it only lost two seats.
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Republican Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
There were 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party needed to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This was unlikely as there were so few Republican seats up for election.[3]
Race ratings
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.
U.S. House
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained a total of six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.[4]
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 235 | |
| Republican Party | 235 | 200[5] | |
| Vacancies | 7 | 0 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Race ratings
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.
Media coverage
The historically expensive race for the 6th Congressional District and the uprising of an outsider candidate in the Alabama Senate Republican primary have frequently been examined by the media for consequences across all races in 2018. These special elections, to some political commentators and journalists, are harbingers of how midterm elections will proceed under the Trump administration. The other lens through which the media is considering the 2018 elections is questioning the amount of power congressional party leaders Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be able to maintain within internally divided parties.
Democratic primaries
- Joe Perticone, Business Insider (September 30, 2017):
- "Several months after a handful of House Democrats attempted to replace Nancy Pelosi as Minority Leader, who has been exercising her dealmaking skills with President Donald Trump as of late, the conference's most critical voices of the longtime California lawmaker remain sour on her leadership. ... The frustration with Democratic leadership from their younger voices continued when none of the special elections vacated by Trump's Cabinet picks were flipped from red to blue — especially in the expensive race in Georgia's 6th congressional district, where Jon Ossoff lost to Republican Karen Handel. Months later, those critical Democrats say nothing has changed. New York Rep. Kathleen Rice told Business Insider 'the internal workings of the caucus and the stranglehold that [Pelosi] has on top makes it very difficult for anyone to get the experience to be able to be in leadership positions.' 'And I still think that 2018 is going to be more difficult than people think for Democrats,' Rice added. 'We have to have an economic message and we have to have effective messengers.'"[6]
- Gabriel Debenedetti, Politico (September 29, 2017):
- "Democrats have long been terrified that the Sanders-Clinton slugfest of 2016 would set off a prolonged civil war in the party, forcing incumbents to fight off primary challengers from the left in Senate and gubernatorial races. It hasn’t happened. In a surprising reversal of the post-2008 dynamic — when Republicans were shut out of power, then saw a raft of tea party primary challengers take on their incumbents — Democrats have largely been spared of that predicament. ... 'What Democrats right now care about more than anything is winning,' veteran Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock said of divisive Democratic primaries. 'I don’t think the ultra-progressives have abandoned their principles — not at all — but I think they looked at the challenge and said, This is not the right place.'"[7]
- Philip Elliott, TIME (September 21, 2017):
- "Which leaves the party confronting a puzzle. The momentum may be on the left, but picking up the 24 seats required to retake the House, and the three states needed for control of the Senate, will mean luring back blue collar workers in places like Ryan's Mahoning Valley district, where the steel plants are shells of their former selves, small businesses are boarded up and payday lenders seem to be on every corner. This used to be a Democratic stronghold, but Trump won three of the five counties in Ryan's district. If Democrats don't refine their pitch to alienated white voters, Trump could win re-election with ease. "The resistance can only be part of it," Ryan says. 'We have to be on the offense too.' It's not clear who has the influence or inclination to spearhead that shift. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi are seasoned dealmakers who can raise Brink's trucks full of cash."[8]
Republican primaries
- Jessica Taylor, NPR (September 30, 2017)
- "It's not just in taking on incumbents where Bannon and his allies could give D.C. Republicans heartburn. With an incredibly favorable map featuring 10 Democratic incumbents in states Trump carried in 2016, if weak nominees come out of the primaries, those once winnable races could evaporate from the lists of possibilities. Just look back at nominees like Todd Akin of Missouri in 2014 and Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Sharron Angle in Nevada in 2010 who all lost what many thought were winnable races."[9]
- Eliza Collins, USA Today (September 29, 2017)
- "Steve Bannon and other Trump-aligned conservatives are feeling empowered by Roy Moore's Senate primary win in Alabama, upsetting the White House's favored candidate. And now they’re planning to try it again in other GOP races. Flush with victory, Bannon and his Breitbart news outlet as well as other spinoff groups— those who want to fight the "establishment GOP" — plan to dig up dirt on other GOP incumbents who they feel might betray Trump's agenda, and try to replace them in 2018 Senate races. 'Bannon is plotting a strategy to launch an all-out assault on the Republican establishment,” said Andrew Surabian, a political strategist who worked under Bannon at the White House and now is a senior adviser to a pro-Trump advocacy group. 'I think it’s fair to say that if you’re tied to (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell, any of his henchmen in the consulting class or were a Never-Trumper during the campaign, you're not safe from a primary challenge.'"[10]
- Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin, The New York Times (September 27, 2017)
- Republicans increasingly worry that their base’s contempt for Mr. McConnell is more potent than its love for Mr. Trump. Mr. McConnell could be an anchor around incumbents in the same fashion as Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, who is routinely used to undermine Democratic candidates. The loudest applause Mr. Moore received during an election-eve rally came when he declared, 'Mitch McConnell needs to be replaced.' In a memo about the Alabama election that circulated among Republican donors, Steven Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, a “super PAC” closely allied with Mr. McConnell, said primary voters were intensely angry and inclined to blame Republicans for dysfunction in Washington. 'The Republican Congress has replaced President Obama as the bogeyman for conservative G.O.P. primary voters,” Mr. Law wrote, cautioning that the president was helping to amplify that point of view: 'This narrative is driven by Trump himself, and it resonates with primary voters who believe the Republican Congress "isn’t doing enough" (as we frequently heard in focus groups) to advance the president’s agenda.'"[11]
Bannon's challenge to establishment Republicans
Former White House chief strategist and Breitbart chair Steve Bannon pledged to work to remove establishment Republicans from Washington, D.C., through competitive primaries. "We’re going after these guys tooth and nail. We are declaring war on the Republican establishment that does not back the agenda that Donald Trump ran on. This agenda works. The American people voted for it," Bannon said during an interview on October 10, 2017.[12] Axios reported that Bannon planned to back the following possible and declared candidates:[13]
- Rep. Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee
- Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia
- Matt Rosendale in Montana
- Josh Hawley in Missouri
- Danny Tarkanian in Nevada
- Kelli Ward in Arizona
- Chris McDaniel in Mississippi
- Rick Scott in Florida
- Roy Moore in Alabama
- Erik Prince in Wyoming
- Ann LePage in Maine
Special elections
Special elections made up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there were more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.
Expected special elections
The table below displays a running list of the expected special elections to the 115th United States Congress.
The table below lists special elections to the 115th United States Congress.
Election issues
Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- United States Congress elections, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ The American Presidency Project, "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections," accessed February 6, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
- ↑ Slate, "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
- ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
- ↑ Business Insider, "Democrats still seem in a mood of revolt toward Pelosi even after her deals with Trump," September 30, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Bernie backers give Dem incumbents a pass in 2018," September 29, 2017
- ↑ TIME, "Divided Democratic Party Debates Its Future as 2020 Looms," September 21, 2017
- ↑ NPR, "Bannon's 'War' With GOP Has Only Just Begun," September 30, 2017
- ↑ USA Today, "Steve Bannon's Breitbart is going to war against GOP incumbents," September 29, 2017
- ↑ The New York Times, "Roy Moore’s Alabama Victory Sets Off Talk of a G.O.P. Insurrection," September 27, 2017
- ↑ Newsweek, "Steve Bannon Declares War on Republicans, Calls for Trump Critic Bob Corker to Resign," October 10, 2017
- ↑ Axios, "Steve Bannon's next victims," October 8, 2017
- ↑ While technically a general election, the April 18 election was functionally a top-two primary because no candidate received the 50 percent of the vote required to win the race outright.
- ↑ June 20, 2017, runoff election between Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff.
