California's 41st Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
California's 41st Congressional District
	Top-two primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: December 8, 2023
	Primary: March 5, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in California
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Toss-up; DDHQ and The Hill: Toss-up; Inside Elections: Tilt Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	California's 41st Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 37th • 38th • 39th • 40th • 41st • 42nd • 43rd • 44th • 45th • 46th • 47th • 48th • 49th • 50th • 51st • 52nd ; California elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

California 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • State Senate • State Assembly • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • All other local • How to run for office

Incumbent Ken Calvert (R) defeated Will Rollins (D) in the general election for California's 41st Congressional District on November 5, 2024. Click here for detailed results.

This was a rematch of the 2022 election. Calvert was first elected to the U.S. House in 1992, and he represented various districts due to redistricting. He was first elected to California's 41st Congressional District in 2022, defeating Rollins 52.3% to 47.7%.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) funded a field office in the district to support Calvert.^[1]^[2] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) supported Rollins as part of its Red to Blue program that backed challengers to Republican incumbents.^[3]

Before the election, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for this contest, with predictions varying from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. To read more on ratings for the election, click here.

Before the election, the Los Angeles Times reported that "both sides say this year's race will likely be dominated by kitchen-table issues including the daily cost of living, crime and housing."^[4] Politico reported that "tough-on-crime policies have emerged as a central issue in the race."^[5] After the primary, the Palm Springs Police Officers Association endorsed Rollins, citing his career in law enforcement.^[6] The association endorsed Calvert in 2022.^[6] The police officer associations of Menifee, Corona, and Riverside endorsed Calvert.^[7]

Calvert was a small business owner before being elected.^[8] Calvert ran on his political experience, highlighting his membership on the House Committee on Appropriations and his role as chair of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense.^[8] Calvert said he had secured funding for "transportation, water, and clean air projects for Riverside County."^[8] Calvert said he believed illegal immigration was a crisis that fueled drug trafficking into Southern California.^[9] Calvert said he supported small businesses and opposed taxes and regulations that limited economic growth.^[10]

At the time of the election, Rollins was an attorney who previously worked as a federal prosecutor and an assistant U.S. Attorney.^[11] Rollins ran on his experience as a terrorism prosecutor, saying he had "been on the front lines in the fight against extremism."^[12] Highlighting his law enforcement background, Rollins said he supported funding law enforcement and enacting gun safety laws to promote public safety.^[13]^[14] Rollins said he supported a federal law that would codify a right to abortion access.^[15] Rollins said he supported gay rights and that "Ken Calvert can’t be trusted to support the LGBTQ community."^[16]

Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Calvert raised $7.5 million and spent $5.8 million and Rollins raised $11.5 million and spent $9.3 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[17] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[18] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 52.3%-47.7%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 49.7%-48.6%.^[19]

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

California's 41st Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 41

Incumbent Ken Calvert defeated Will Rollins in the general election for U.S. House California District 41 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Ken Calvert (R)	51.7	183,216
	Will Rollins (D)	48.3	171,229

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 354,445
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 41

Incumbent Ken Calvert and Will Rollins defeated Anna Nevenic in the primary for U.S. House California District 41 on March 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Ken Calvert (R)	53.0	85,959
✔	Will Rollins (D)	38.4	62,245
	Anna Nevenic (D)	8.6	13,862

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 162,066
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Tim Sheridan (D)
Brian Hawkins (D)
Kyle Penna (No party preference)

Voting information

See also: Voting in California

Election information in California: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 21, 2024
Online: Oct. 21, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: N/A
By mail: N/A by N/A
Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Varies to Nov. 4, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (PST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Ken Calvert

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

United States House of Representatives (Assumed office: 1993)

Biography: Calvert received a bachelor’s degree in economics from San Diego State University. He was a small business owner in the restaurant and real estate industries.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Calvert said his legislative experience showed he had a “record of effective representation in Congress.” He said he previously secured funding for transportation, water, and air quality projects in the district.

Calvert said illegal immigration was a crisis and that the United States was “a nation of immigrants, but we are a beacon of hope throughout the world because we respect and enforce the rule of law.” He authored legislation that created the E-Verify program and said he would work to make it mandatory for employers to check the immigration status of new employees.

Calvert said he supported lowering taxes and reducing regulations on small businesses to help the economy: “The federal government's job is not to stifle the prosperity of these businesses through an onerous tax and regulatory system but to stay out of the way so that the transactions of a free market may take place.”

Show sources

Sources: Congressman Ken Calvert, "Homeland Security and Illegal Immigration," accessed July 8, 2024, Congressman Ken Calvert, "Small Business," accessed July 8, 2024, Ken Calvert 2024 campaign website, "Meet Ken Calvert," accessed July 8, 2024; Congressman Ken Calvert, "Biography," accessed July 8, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 41 in 2024.

Will Rollins

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography: Rollins received a bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College and a J.D. from Columbia Law School. He clerked for two federal judges in California and worked in the National Security Division of the U.S. Attorney’s Office as an assistant U.S. Attorney.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Rollins said his time as a counterterrorism prosecutor in law enforcement gave him experience in national security and public safety. On law enforcement, he said, “Given the rise in crime, we need to make sure our local police forces have the resources they need to keep us safe.”

Rollins said he supported codifying a federal right to abortion. He said the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson that overturned Roe v. Wade put “countless women across Riverside County, our state, and our country at risk.”

Rollins said he supported gay rights and that the United States’ “economy, military and society is strongest when all of our citizens are protected from discrimination.” He said that “Ken Calvert can’t be trusted to support the LGBTQ community” based on his legislative record.

Show sources

Sources: Will Rollins 2024 campaign website, "Protecting Public Safety and Investing in Criminal Justice Reform," accessed July 8, 2024, Will Rollins 2024 campaign website, "Protecting Reproductive Freedom," accessed July 8, 2024, Will Rollins 2024 campaign website, "Securing LGBTQ Rights and Equality," accessed July 8, 2024; X, "Will Rollins on June 25, 2024," June 25, 2024; LinkedIn, "Will Rollins," accessed July 8, 2024, Raines Feldman Littrell LLP, "William M. Rollins," accessed July 8, 2024, Will Rollins 2024 campaign website, "Meet Will Rollins," accessed July 8, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 41 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

Ken Calvert

October 9, 2024

September 11, 2024

View more ads here:

Will Rollins

September 26, 2024

September 19, 2024

August 27, 2024

View more ads here:

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.^[20] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."^[21] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.

FiveThirtyEight

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[22]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[23]^[24]^[25]

Race ratings: California's 41st Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Ken Calvert

Republican Party

$8,056,905

$7,864,572

$262,136

As of December 31, 2024

Will Rollins

Democratic Party

$12,603,462

$12,610,995

$37,399

As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[26]^[27]^[28]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Ken Calvert Will Rollins	OpenSecrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.

California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	52	52	7	241	52	42	80.8%	36	80.0%
2022	52	52	5	272	52	52	100.0%	47	100.0%
2020	53	53	4	262	53	47	88.7%	32	64.0%
2018	53	53	2	244	53	41	77.4%	39	76.5%
2016	53	53	4	202	53	40	75.5%	36	73.5%
2014	53	53	6	209	53	38	71.7%	32	68.1%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.

The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.

Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.

Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.

Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.

Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.

Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made California's 41st the 205th most Republican district nationally.^[29]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in California's 41st based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
48.6%	49.7%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[30] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
46.5	53.2	R+6.7

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in California, 2020

California presidential election results (1900-2020)

15 Democratic wins
15 Republican wins
1 other win

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	R	P^[31]	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

See also: Party control of California state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	43	45
Republican	0	9	9
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	52	54

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in California, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Gavin Newsom
Lieutenant Governor	Eleni Kounalakis
Secretary of State	Shirley Weber
Attorney General	Rob Bonta

State legislature

California State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	32
	Republican Party	8
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		40

California State Assembly

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	62
	Republican Party	18
	Independent	1
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		80

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Assembly	D	D	D	S	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
California	U.S. House	All candidates	40-60	$1,740.00^[32]	12/8/2023	Source