Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Alaska elections in 2014
June 10, 2014
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Margin of victory Competitiveness |
| Other 2014 Election coverage |
State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate |
By Ballotpedia's State legislative team
Alaska underwent redistricting in 2013, so this year's elections will be the first with the new maps. As a result, many incumbents are running in districts other than the one they currently represent. In the House District 3 race, this caused two Republican incumbents to be drawn together. District 1 incumbent Doug Isaacson and District 2 incumbent Tammie Wilson will meet in the August 19 Republican primary. District 3 is currently represented by Steve M. Thompson (R), who is running for District 2 this year. A total of eleven incumbents (three in the Senate, eight in the House) will run in a new district previously held by the opposite party.
June 2 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Alaska State Senate and Alaska House of Representatives. Elections in 14 Senate districts and 40 House districts will consist of a primary election on August 19, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.
- See also: 2014's state legislative elections, Alaska State Senate elections and Alaska House of Representatives elections
Majority control
Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds a majority in both state legislative chambers. Alaska's office of governor is held by Sean Parnell (R), making the state one of 23 with a Republican state government trifecta.
The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is six seats, or 42.9 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are ten districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.[1]
| Alaska State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 7 | 6 | |
| Republican Party | 13 | 14 | |
| Total | 20 | 20 | |
The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the House is twelve seats, or 30.0 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 28 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.[2]
| Alaska House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 14 | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 26 | 23 | |
| Independent | 0 | 1 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
2015 →
← 2013
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| Other 2014 Election coverage |
Competitiveness
Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:
- Is the incumbent running for re-election?
- If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
- Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?
In Alaska's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:[3]
- There are 8 open seats (14.8%) in the two chambers.
- A total of 6 incumbents (13.0%) face a primary challenger.
- 38 districts (70.4%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.
The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.
| Comparing Alaska Competitiveness over the Years | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | % Incs retiring | % incs rank | % Incs facing primary | % Incs primary rank | % seats with 2 MPC | % seats with 2 MPC rank | Overall Index | Overall Index Rank |
| 2010 | 10.0% | 34 | 17.8% | 23 | 58.0% | 30 | 28.6 | 31 |
| 2012 | 18.6% | 25 | 32.1% | 16 | 67.8% | 22 | 39.5 | 16 |
| 2014 | 14.8% | Pending | 13.4% | Pending | 70.4% | Pending | 19.5 | Pending |
Senate
The following table details competitiveness in the Alaska State Senate.
| Alaska Senate Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 14.3% | 7.1% | 71.4% | 30.9 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 4 of the 14 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Three Democrats and one Republican are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances. Candidates from both major parties will face off in the general election in 10 of the 14 districts up for election. Redistricting occurred in 2013, causing many incumbents to change districts.
Primary challenges
One incumbent will face primary competition on August 19. Two incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 11 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition.
- District C: Incumbent Click Bishop (R) will face Mike Miller in the Republican primary. Dorothy J. Shockley (D) is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Retiring incumbents
Six incumbent senators, three Democrats and three Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 8 (57.1%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| John B. Coghill | Senate District A | |
| Charlie Huggins | Senate District E | |
| Fred Dyson | Senate District F | |
| Bill Wielechowski | Senate District G | |
| Johnny Ellis | Senate District I | |
| Lesil McGuire | Senate District K |
House
The following table details competitiveness in the Alaska House of Representatives.
| Alaska House Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 15.0% | 12.5% | 70.0% | 32.5 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 12 of the 40 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Nine Democrats and three Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances. Candidates from both major parties will face off in the general election in 28 of the 40 districts up for election. Redistricting occurred in 2013, causing many incumbents to change districts.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents will face primary competition on August 19. Five incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 31 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state representatives facing primary competition are:
- District 3: Incumbents Doug Isaacson (R) and Tammie Wilson (R) will face off in the Republican primary. Sharron J. Hunter (D) is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
- District 9: Incumbent Eric A. Feige (R) will face Jim Colver and George Rauscher in the Republican primary. Mabel H. Wimmer (D) is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
- District 20: Incumbent Les S. Gara (D) will face Robert L. Benton in the Democratic primary. No Republican candidate filed to run.
- District 40: Incumbent Benjamin P. "Bennie" Nageak (D) will face Dean Westlake in the Democratic primary. No Republican candidate filed to run.
Retiring incumbents
Five incumbent representatives, all Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 35 (87.5%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Stoltze | House District 11 | |
| Lindsey Holmes | House District 19 | |
| Mia Costello | House District 20 | |
| Peggy Wilson | House District 33 | |
| Alan Austerman | House District 35 |
See also
- Alaska elections, 2014
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Alaska State Senate elections, 2014
- Alaska House of Representatives elections, 2014
External links
Footnotes