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Presidential election in Kentucky, 2016

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Kentucky
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General election in Kentucky
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Donald Trump
Electoral votes: 8
2012 winner: Mitt Romney (R)
Democratic Primary
  Date: May 17, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Caucuses
  Date: March 5, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in Kentucky
  U.S. House
Kentucky State Senate
Kentucky House of Representatives
Kentucky judicial elections
Kentucky local judicial elections
School boards
Municipal elections
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Kentucky held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Republicans held caucuses in Kentucky on March 5, 2016. Democrats held a primary election in Kentucky on May 17, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Donald Trump won Kentucky in the general election.
  • In 2016, Kentucky had eight electoral votes, which was 1.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1900 and 2016, Kentucky cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.33 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Kentucky supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.33 to 46.67 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every election between between 2000 and 2016.
  • A Democratic primary election took place in Kentucky on May 17, 2016. Hillary Clinton won with 46.8 percent of the vote. The Republican Party held caucuses in Kentucky on March 5, 2016. Donald Trump won with 35.9 percent.

    • General election candidates and results

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the Kentucky secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in Kentucky

    ☐ Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (American Delta)
    ☐ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Independent)[1]
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☑ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, Kentucky, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 32.7% 628,854 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 62.5% 1,202,971 8
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 2.8% 53,752 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 0.7% 13,913 0
         American Delta Roque De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.1% 1,128 0
         Independent Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 1.2% 22,780 0
         - Write-in votes 0% 751 0
    Total Votes 1,924,149 8
    Election results via: Kentucky Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of Kentucky's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in Kentucky, 1900-2016

    Between 1900 and 2016:

    • Kentucky participated in 30 presidential elections.
    • Kentucky voted for the winning presidential candidate 73.33 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 72.31 percent.[3]
    • Kentucky voted Democratic 53.33 percent of the time and Republican 46.67 percent of the time.

    Presidential election voting record in Kentucky, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Kentucky, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 37.8% 679,370 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 60.5% 1,087,190 8
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 0.9% 17,063 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.4% 6,337 0
         Independent Randall Terry/Missy Smith 0.4% 6,872 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0% 380 0
    Total Votes 1,797,212 8
    Election results via: Kentucky State Board of Elections

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Kentucky, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 41.2% 751,985 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 57.4% 1,048,462 8
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.8% 15,378 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 5,989 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Robert Thornsberry 0.3% 4,694 0
    Total Votes 1,826,508 8
    Election results via: Kentucky State Board of Elections

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    Kentucky electors

    In 2016, Kentucky had eight electoral votes. Kentucky's share of electoral votes represented 1.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 3 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Democratic and Republican electors in Kentucky were selected at state and district conventions.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[5][6]

    Kentucky was one of 20 states in 2016 without a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.


    General election results

    2016

    Results will be posted the night of the November 2016 election.

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, Kentucky, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 37.8% 679,370 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Paul Ryan 60.5% 1,087,190 8
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 0.9% 17,063 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.4% 6,337 0
         Independent Randall Terry/Missy Smith 0.4% 6,872 0
         Write-in Write-in candidates 0% 380 0
    Total Votes 1,797,212 8
    Election results via: Kentucky State Board of Elections

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, Kentucky, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Barack Obama/Joe Biden 41.2% 751,985 0
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain/Sarah Palin 57.4% 1,048,462 8
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.8% 15,378 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 5,989 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Robert Thornsberry 0.3% 4,694 0
    Total Votes 1,826,508 8
    Election results via: Kentucky State Board of Elections

    Down ballot races

    See also: Kentucky elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in Kentucky covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Type: Closed Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 55
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Caucus
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 45

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the 2016 Kentucky Democratic primary.[7] Late on May 17, 2016, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes called Hillary Clinton the “unofficial winner” of the 2016 Kentucky Democratic primary while news outlets continued to report that the race was too close to call.[8][9] With more than 99 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton had won 46.8 percent of the vote compared to Sanders’ 46.3 percent.[10] Clinton carried Jefferson County, home to Louisville, 57 to 40 percent and Fayette County, home to Lexington, 53 to 45 percent. Sanders, meanwhile, dominated in the more rural eastern and western parts of the state.

    Clinton had an overwhelming victory in Kentucky's 2008 Democratic primary when she carried nearly 66 percent of the vote and defeated her primary opponent Barack Obama by more than 35 percent. Bill Clinton carried Kentucky in the 1992 and 1996 elections.[10] For more on the 2016 Kentucky primary, see How Clinton won Kentucky.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the 2016 Kentucky Republican caucus. This was the first caucus in the state's history following a format change to accommodate U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who wanted to simultaneously run for the Senate and the presidency but could not appear twice on the ballot under state law.[11] Trump carried 35.9 percent of the vote.[10]

    Ted Cruz came in second with 31.6 percent. He beat Trump in Rowan County, where county clerk Kim Davis refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples following the legalization of same-sex marriage in Obergefell v. Hodges, by one vote.[10]

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    Kentucky Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 46.8% 212,534 28
    Bernie Sanders 46.3% 210,623 27
    Martin O'Malley 1.3% 5,713 0
    Rocky De La Fuente 0.4% 1,594 0
    Other 5.3% 24,101 0
    Totals 454,565 55
    Source: The New York Times and Kentucky Secretary of State

    Republicans

    Kentucky Republican Caucus, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 35.9% 82,493 17
    Ted Cruz 31.6% 72,503 15
    Marco Rubio 16.4% 37,579 7
    John Kasich 14.4% 33,134 7
    Ben Carson 0.8% 1,951 0
    Rand Paul 0.4% 872 0
    Other 0.2% 496 0
    Jeb Bush 0.1% 305 0
    Mike Huckabee 0.1% 174 0
    Chris Christie 0% 65 0
    Carly Fiorina 0% 64 0
    Rick Santorum 0% 31 0
    Totals 229,667 46
    Source: The New York Times and Republican Party of Kentucky

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[12]

    Hillary Clinton
    Roque De La Fuente


    Martin O'Malley


    Bernie Sanders

    Polls

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (Kentucky)
    Poll Donald Trump Marco RubioTed CruzBen CarsonJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    WKU Social Science Research Center
    February 22-26, 2016    		35%22%15%7%6%15%+/-4.25532
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Delegates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    Kentucky had 60 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 55 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[13][14]

    Five party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[13][15]

    Kentucky superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from Kentucky, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Note: As of July 11, 2016, one of Kentucky's superdelegate positions was vacant.

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    Kentucky had 46 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 18 were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's six congressional districts). District delegates were allocated proportionally; a candidate had to win at least 5 percent of the statewide caucus vote in order to be eligible to receive any district delegates.[16][17]

    Of the remaining 28 delegates, 25 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated proportionally; a candidate had to win at least 5 percent of the statewide caucus vote in order to be eligible to receive any of the state's at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention. The RNC delegates were allocated in the same manner as the at-large delegates.[16][17][18]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from Kentucky, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from Kentucky, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    Kentucky presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 16 Democratic wins
    • 16 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
    Winning Party D D D D D D R R D D D D D D R R D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R

    State profile

    Demographic data for Kentucky
     KentuckyU.S.
    Total population:4,424,611316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):39,4863,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:87.6%73.6%
    Black/African American:7.9%12.6%
    Asian:1.3%5.1%
    Native American:0.2%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.1%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
    College graduation rate:22.3%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$43,740$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:22.7%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kentucky.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Kentucky

    Kentucky voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, one is located in Kentucky, accounting for 0.5 percent of the total pivot counties.[19]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Kentucky had one Retained Pivot County, 0.55 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Kentucky coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    3. ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2016. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
    4. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    5. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    6. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    7. ↑ CNN, "2016 Election Center: Kentucky," May 18, 2016
    8. ↑ CNN, “Kentucky official: Clinton apparent winner,” May 17, 2016
    9. ↑ BreakingNews.com, “2016 U.S. Election,” May 17, 2016
    10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 The New York Times, "Kentucky Results," May 17, 2016 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "NYT" defined multiple times with different content
    11. ↑ The Washington Post, "Rand Paul sells Kentucky GOP on presidential caucus," August 22, 2015
    12. ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State," accessed January 27, 2016
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    14. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    15. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    18. ↑ Republican National Committee, "Memorandum on Binding of RNC Members," January 29, 2016
    19. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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