Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

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2020
2016
Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 20, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+13
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th7th (special)15th (special)18th (special)
Pennsylvania elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2018.

Attorney Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeated former prosecutor Pearl Kim (R) in the November 6 general election for Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District.

A February Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling creating new boundaries for the state’s congressional districts pieced the new 5th District together from parts of the old 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts. These districts were represented by Rep. Bob Brady (D), Rep. Dwight Evans (D), and Rep. Patrick Meehan (R), respectively. Brady and Meehan announced they would not seek re-election in 2018, and Evans ran for another term in the new District 3. For more on Pennsylvania's new congressional district map, click here.[1]

Hillary Clinton won the newly drawn District 5 by 28 percentage points in 2016. She won the old 7th District (which the 5th District most closely resembles) by 2.3 percentage points.[2][3] Truthout said this was "the most dramatic shift of all 18 congressional districts caused by Pennsylvania's redistricting."[3]

Scanlon and Kim also ran in Pennsylvania's 7th District special election on November 6 to finish Patrick Meehan's (R) term ending January 1, 2019. Scanlon won that election. Meehan resigned in April 2018 amid sexual misconduct allegations.


Results of 2018 redistricting

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.

The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.

Old district[4] Prior incumbent Prior 2016 presidential result New 2016 presidential result
7th District Pat Meehan (R) D+2.3 D+28.2

Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.

Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5

Mary Gay Scanlon defeated Pearl Kim in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Gay Scanlon
Mary Gay Scanlon (D) Candidate Connection
 
65.2
 
198,639
Image of Pearl Kim
Pearl Kim (R)
 
34.8
 
106,075

Total votes: 304,714
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mary Gay Scanlon
Mary Gay Scanlon Candidate Connection
 
28.4
 
17,220
Image of Ashley Lunkenheimer
Ashley Lunkenheimer
 
15.3
 
9,291
Image of Richard Lazer
Richard Lazer
 
15.0
 
9,095
Image of Molly Sheehan
Molly Sheehan
 
10.2
 
6,216
Image of Gregory Vitali
Gregory Vitali
 
9.4
 
5,726
Image of Lindy Li
Lindy Li
 
7.0
 
4,236
Image of Theresa Wright
Theresa Wright
 
5.2
 
3,149
Image of Thaddeus Kirkland
Thaddeus Kirkland
 
4.0
 
2,420
Image of Margo Davidson
Margo Davidson
 
4.0
 
2,413
Larry Arata
 
1.5
 
925

Total votes: 60,691
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5

Pearl Kim advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 5 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Pearl Kim
Pearl Kim
 
100.0
 
34,352

Total votes: 34,352
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.

Campaign finances

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mary Gay Scanlon Democratic Party $1,935,937 $1,822,024 $113,913 As of December 31, 2018
Pearl Kim Republican Party $521,263 $521,263 $0 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District the 102nd most Democratic nationally.[14]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[15]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Pearl Kim Facebook

Republican Party Mary Gay Scanlon Facebook

Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[16] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[17] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[18] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[19] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[20] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Erie County, Pennsylvania 1.56% 16.03% 19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania 19.31% 4.81% 8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania 3.78% 4.71% 12.30%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[21][22]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District history

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.

See also

Footnotes

  1. Daily Times News, "Pennsylvania Supreme Court give Delco 5th Congressional District," Updated February 20, 2018
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections presents presidential election results for Pennsylvania's new congressional map," February 26, 2018
  3. 3.0 3.1 Truthout, "After Pennsylvania Redistricting, Democratic Party Leaders Try to Pick Their Own Primary Winner," March 28, 2018
  4. 4.0 4.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
  5. The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
  6. District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
  7. District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
  8. Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
  9. Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
  10. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  15. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  16. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  17. The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  18. The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  19. The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  20. The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  21. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  22. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  23. Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
  24. The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
  25. United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
  26. Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018



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