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Electoral competitiveness in New Jersey, 1912-2014

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Published in April 2015

The 2014 national election continued the decline in U.S. electoral competitiveness that has occurred since 1972. The decline of electoral competitiveness that has been seen on the national stage, has also been seen in states. For example, New Jersey saw a decrease in the number of elections won by a small margin from 1971 to 2013.

This page contains electoral competitiveness information at various levels of government in this state up to 2014. For more recent information about state legislative competitiveness nationwide, click here.

The data presented below are part of a larger project on electoral competitiveness, the full report is available in the table to the right. The images below illustrate the changes in the competitiveness of elections in New Jersey from 1912 through 2014. The data used to generate these graphs is available in the tables below those images.

Background

Since 1972, electoral competitiveness has tended to decrease across the United States. During that time, people who are members of the same political party have become more likely to live in the same area as one another than in the past. Nationally, the rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness is declining. On the national level, the percentage of state legislative elections won by 5 percent or less was nearly the lowest in the 1972 to 2014 period. In an absolute sense, the incidence of such elections was very low. Only 4.9 percent of U.S. residents in districts with elections saw their election won by 5 percent or less. Similarly, more Americans lived in areas with uncontested elections than ever before in the time period studied: 36.7 percent. State legislative primaries were often found to be won by wide margins or not contested at all. The rate at which incumbents won reelection is also close to an all-time high. However, this does not have to do with incumbents deriving more advantages from holding office than before. It is because they are more likely to be in safe districts for their party. In contrast to the high incumbency reelection rate, the rate at which incumbents run for reelection has gone down over time.

Competitiveness in elections in New Jersey

Table explanation

The columns in the tables below for both state senates and state houses are as follow:

  • Seats: number of seats in the state legislative chamber.
  • Percent Seats Up: percent of seats in the state legislative chamber that are up in a particular year for the November election.
  • Percent Won By Dem: the percent of seats in the state legislature that were won by a Democrat.
  • Percent Unusable: percent of seats for the state legislative chamber that weren’t usable to compute whether a race was marginal or not for this chamber in this year because of missing data. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent with 5% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent with 10% margin: percent of seats for a state chamber in a year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Unusable Other: percent of seats that have missing data that prevent the computation of whether an incumbent won or lost, whether an incumbent ran or not, or whether a race was uncontested. This column usually says “0.”
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of races in a chamber that are uncontested.
  • Percent Incumbent Win: percent of incumbents who ran for a state chamber in a particular year who won.
  • Percent With Incumbent: number of incumbents running for reelection for a state-chamber in one year, divided by the number of seats that are up for election for that state-chamber, multiplied by 100.

The columns for the “Up ballot” tab are as follows:

  • U.S. House Seats: number of U.S. House Seats that a state was apportioned in the year in question.
  • Percent Not Usable: percent of U.S. House Seats in the state and year that aren’t usable to compute marginality or contestation, because of something unusual about the race.
  • Percent With 5% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 5% or less.
  • Percent With 10% Margin: percent of U.S. House races in the state and year that were won by 10% or less.
  • Percent Uncontested: percent of U.S. House races that were uncontested in the state and year.
  • U.S. Senate 1 Margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • U.S. Senate 2 Margin: This is only recorded when a second election to the U.S. Senate was held because of a Senator not completing their term. For such elections, this is the difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the U.S. Senate election with the U.S. Senate candidate receiving the second most votes.
  • President margin: difference between the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the most votes in a state minus the percent of votes obtained by the presidential candidate receiving the second most votes in a state.
  • Governor margin: difference between the percent obtained by the winner of the gubernatorial election in a state with the gubernatorial candidate receiving the second most votes.

State Senate

State Senate competitiveness, New Jersey
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1971 40 100 40 0 17.5 40 0 0 86.4 55 100 87.5
1973 40 100 72.5 0 7.5 32.5 0 0 63 67.5 90.9 43.8
1977 40 100 67.5 0 7.5 15 0 0 81.5 67.5 88.2 100
1979 40 5 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
1981 40 100 55 0 17.5 22.5 0 0 85.2 67.5 76.5 100
1983 40 100 57.5 0 17.5 22.5 0 0 88.2 85 94.1 82.4
1987 40 100 60 0 5 22.5 0 12.5 97.1 87.5 100 92.9
1989 40 5 0 0 50 50 0 0 0
1991 40 100 32.5 0 10 22.5 0 2.5 82.1 70 71.4 92.9
1993 40 100 40 0 12.5 17.5 0 10 91.4 87.5 100 88
1995 40 2.5 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997 40 100 40 0 2.5 17.5 0 10 94.1 85 100 90.5
1999 40 2.5 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001 40 100 50 0 10 15 0 10 91.2 85 100 85.7
2003 40 100 55 0 2.5 10 0 7.5 97.1 85 100 94.1
2007 40 100 57.5 0 0 2.5 0 10 92 62.5 93.8 88.9
2009 40 5 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011 40 100 60 0 0 10 0 2.5 100 85 100 100
2013 40 100 60 0 7.5 12.5 0 5 100 97.5 100 100

State House

State House competitiveness, New Jersey
Year Seats % Seats up % Won by Dem % Unusable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Unusuable other % Uncontested % Incumbent win % With incumbent % of Dem inc winning % of Repub inc winning
1969 80 100 26.3 0 6.3 22.5 0 0 96.8 77.5 87.5 100
1971 80 100 50 0 22.5 45 0 0 79.1 53.8 85.7 75.9
1973 80 100 82.5 0 20 37.5 0 0 71.4 61.3 100 41.7
1975 80 100 61.3 0 21.3 35 0 0 82.6 86.3 80 100
1977 80 100 67.5 0 11.3 27.5 0 0 96.4 70 100 90.5
1979 80 100 55 0 12.5 31.3 0 1.3 84.9 91.3 78.7 100
1981 80 100 53.8 0 7.5 22.5 0 1.3 98.1 65 100 95.2
1983 80 100 55 0 5 15 0 0 96.9 81.3 100 93.3
1985 80 100 37.5 0 11.3 28.8 0 1.3 79.5 91.3 66.7 96.8
1987 80 100 47.5 0 5 17.5 0 2.5 96.8 77.5 100 94.7
1989 80 100 55 0 16.3 30 0 1.3 95.8 88.8 100 91.4
1991 80 100 27.5 0 10 21.3 0 3.8 78 73.8 58.1 100
1993 80 100 33.8 0 6.3 13.8 0 5 92.5 83.8 100 90.7
1995 80 100 37.5 0 7.5 22.5 0 5 90.5 78.8 90.9 90.2
1997 80 100 40 0 7.5 13.8 0 6.3 100 82.5 100 100
1999 80 100 43.8 0 3.8 7.5 0 5 96.2 98.8 100 93.8
2001 80 100 55 0 6.3 13.8 0 6.3 95.1 76.3 100 91.2
2003 80 100 58.8 0 10 21.3 0 3.8 92.4 82.5 97.3 89.3
2005 80 100 61.3 0 6.3 12.5 0 7.5 95.8 88.8 97.6 93.3
2007 80 100 60 0 5 8.8 0 7.5 98.1 66.3 97.1 100
2009 80 100 58.8 0 7.5 13.8 0 6.3 100 82.5 100 100
2011 80 100 60 0 5 15 0 1.3 98.4 77.5 100 96.2
2013 80 100 60 0 7.5 15 0 2.5 97.1 85 97.6 96.3

Up ballot

Up ballot competitiveness, New Jersey
Year U.S. House Seats % Not usable % With 5% margin % With 10% margin % Uncontested U.S. Senate 1 margin U.S. Senate 2 margin President margin Governor margin
1912 10.2
1916 12.1
1920 40.8
1924 38.8
1928 20.1
1932 2
1936 20.1
1937 3.1
1940 11.1 3.6 3.4
1942 7.4
1943 11.2
1944 1.6 1.4
1946 14 0 0 14.3 0 18.6 15.9
1948 14 0 21.4 35.7 0 2.8 4.6
1949 4.5
1950 14 0 14.3 28.6 0
1952 14 0 0 28.6 0 12 15
1953 8.7
1954 14 0 0 21.4 0 0.2
1956 14 0 21.4 35.7 0 30.8
1957 10.2
1958 14 0 14.3 28.6 0 4.6
1960 14 0 7.1 21.4 0 12.6 0.8
1961 1.6
1962 15 0 0 13.3 0
1964 15 0 20 26.7 0 24.8 31.9
1965 16.6
1966 15 0 13.3 26.7 0 23.7
1968 15 0 6.7 20 0 2.4
1969 21.6
1970 15 0 6.7 13.3 0 12.3
1972 15 0 6.7 20 0 28.8 25.2
1973 35.3
1974 15 0 0 13.3 0
1976 15 0 13.3 20 0 22.9 2.2
1977 14.3
1978 15 0 13.3 20 0 12.4
1980 15 0 13.3 20 0 14.8
1981 0.1
1982 14 0 0 14.3 0 3.2
1984 14 0 0 7.1 0 29.6 21
1985 40.7
1986 14 7.1 0 0 0
1988 14 0 7.1 7.1 7.1 8.5 13.8
1989 24.4
1990 14 0 14.3 14.3 14.3 3.1
1992 13 0 0 15.4 0 2.8
1993 1.1
1994 13 0 7.7 7.7 0 3.4
1996 13 0 15.4 15.4 0 10.6 19.9
1997 1.1
1998 13 0 7.7 15.4 0
2000 13 0 7.7 15.4 0 3.1 16.4
2001 15
2002 13 0 0 0 7.7 10.1
2004 13 0 0 0 7.7 6.7
2005 10.8
2006 13 0 7.7 7.7 15.4 9.2
2008 13 0 7.7 15.4 7.7 14.4 15.7
2009 3.8
2010 13 0 7.7 15.4 0
2012 12 0 0 8.3 0 19.8 18
2014 12 0 0 8.3 0 13.8

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Click on a different state below for more detailed data on electoral competitiveness.
http://ballotpedia.org/Competitiveness in STATE state legislative elections