Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Nevada elections in 2014
April 9, 2014
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Margin of victory Competitiveness |
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State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate |
By Ballotpedia's State legislative team
The Nevada State Senate features the smallest possible gap in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans, with the Democrats claiming a majority by one seat. Although most of the seats up for election in 2014 were not up in 2012, one seat, District 9, held a hotly-contested 2012 election. In 2012, Justin Jones (D) won election to the district by a margin of victory of 1 percent. This year, he will face the winner of a four-way Republican primary. Elizabeth Halseth (R) held the seat prior Jones' election. Six of the other ten seats are also up for grabs as they feature two major party candidates.
March 14 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Nevada State Senate and Nevada State Assembly. Elections in 25 Senate districts and all 100 House districts will consist of a primary election on June 10, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.
- See also: 2014's state legislative elections; Nevada State Senate elections and Nevada State Assembly elections
Majority control
Heading into the November 4 election, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both state legislative chambers. Nevada's office of Governor is held by Brian Sandoval (R), making the state one of 14 without a state government trifecta.
The Nevada State Senate is one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a battleground chamber. The Nevada Senate has a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republican of one seat, which amounts to 9 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. In 2012, a total of five districts were competitive, with a margin of victory was 5 percent or less. One of those districts, District 9, is up for election again in 2014. That district had a margin of victory of 1 percent in 2012.
| Nevada State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 11 | 10 | |
| Republican Party | 10 | 11 | |
| Total | 21 | 21 | |
The Nevada House has a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republican of eleven seats, which amounts to 26 percent of the chamber. In 2012, a total of nine districts were competitive or mildly competitive. There were five districts where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less in the 2012 elections. Another four districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.
| Nevada House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 26 | 15 | |
| Republican Party | 15 | 27 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 42 | 42 | |
2015 →
← 2013
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| Other 2014 Election coverage |
Margin of victory
House
All 42 seats in the House were up for election in 2012. Five of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Four other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of 5 to 10 percent. There were ten districts where only one major party candidate appeared on the general election ballot.[1]
The districts with elections in 2014 which held competitive or mildly competitive elections in 2012 are:
Competitive
- District 21: Incumbent Andy Eisen (D) will face Adam-John Sanacore (L) and the winner of the Republican primary between Derek Armstrong and Andrew Coates in the general election. Eisen won by a margin of victory of three points in 2012.
- District 29: Incumbent Lesley Cohen and Daniel Mathis will face off in the Democratic primary. Amy Groves faced Stephen Silberkraus in the Republican primary. Cohen's predecessor, April Mastroluca (D), won by a margin of victory of five points in 2012.
- District 31: Incumbent Skip Daly (D) will presumably face the winner of the Republican primary between Jill Dickman and Ron Schmitt. Daly won by a margin of victory of four points in 2012.
- District 35: Incumbent James Healey (D) will face off against Charles Clark, Jr. in the Democratic primary. Mike Bajorek faces Brent Jones in the Republican primary. Healey won by a margin of victory of five points in 2012.
- District 37: Incumbent Wesley Duncan (R) will presumably face Gerald Mackin (D) and Lou Pombo (L) in the general election. Duncan won by a margin of victory of two points in 2012.
Mildly Competitive
- District 5: Incumbent Marilyn Dondero Loop (D) is not seeking re-election in order to pursue a state senate run. Jerri Strasser (D) will presumably face the winner of a five-way Republican primary. Dondero Loop won by a margin of victory of six points in 2012.
- District 9: Incumbent Andrew Martin (D) is not seeking re-election in order to run for state controller. David Gardner (R) will presumably face the winner of a three-way Republican primary between Kelly Mercer, Joe Tinio and Steve Yeager. Martin, a first-term assemblyman who was the subject of a residency controversy in his previous campaign, won by a margin of victory of six points in 2012.
- District 13: Incumbent Paul Anderson (R) will presumably face Christine Kramar (D) in the general election. Anderson won by a margin of victory of eight points in 2012.
- District 41: Incumbent Paul Aizley (D) will presumably face Vicki Dooling (R) in the general election. Aizley won by a margin of victory of eight points in 2012.
Competitiveness
Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:
- Is the incumbent running for re-election?
- If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
- Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?
In Nevada's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:
- There are 15 open seats (12.0%) in the two chambers.
- A total of 10 incumbents (9.1%) face a primary challenger.
- Just 53 districts (42.4%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.
The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.
| Comparing Nevada Competitiveness over the Years | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | % Incs retiring | % incs rank | % Incs facing primary | % Incs primary rank | % seats with 2 MPC | % seats with 2 MPC rank | Overall Index | Overall Index Rank |
| 2010 | 50.9% | 2 | 19.2% | 20 | 90.6% | 8 | 53.6 | 4 |
| 2012 | 33.3% | 8 | 33.3% | 14 | 79.6% | 12 | 48.7 | 6 |
| 2014 | 18.9% | Pending | 34.9% | Pending | 62.3% | Pending | 38.7 | Pending |
Senate
The following table details competitiveness in the Nevada State Senate.
| Nevada Senate Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 9.0% | 18.0% | 63.6% | 30.2 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In four (36.36%) of the 11 senate seats up for election, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and two Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in seven (63.63%) of the 11 districts up for election.[2]
Primary challenges
A total of two incumbents will face primary competition on June 10. One incumbent is not seeking re-election in 2014 and another eight incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state senators facing primary competition include:[2] The state senators facing primary competition are:
- District 16: Incumbent Ben Kieckhefer (R) is challenged in the Republican primary by Gary Schmidt. Michael Kelley is unopposed in the Democratic primary, and John Everhart is unopposed in the American Independent Party primary.
- District 20: Incumbent Michael Roberson (R) is challenged in the Republican primary by Carl Bunce. Teresa Lowry is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Retiring incumbents
One incumbent senator, Barbara Cegavske (R) of District 8, is not seeking re-election due to term limits, while 10 (90.9%) are running for re-election.[2]
House
The following table details competitiveness in the Nevada State Assembly.
| Nevada House Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 21.4% | 31.0% | 61.9% | 38.1 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 16 (38.1%) of the 42 assembly seats up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 8 Democrats and 8 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 26 (61.9%) of the 42 districts up for election. Five of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from zero to five percent. Four other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of five to ten percent.[2]
Primary challenges
A total of 13 incumbents will face primary competition on June 10. Eight incumbents are not seeking re-election, and another 20 will advance past the primary without opposition.[2] The state assembly members facing primary competition are:
- District 6: Incumbent Harvey Munford (D) is challenged in the Democratic primary by Arrick Foster and Anthony Snowden. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
- District 26: Incumbent Randy Kirner (R) is challenged in the Republican primary by Robb Archie and Lisa Krasner. Sally Zamora is unopposed in the American Independent Party primary.
- District 29: Incumbent Lesley Cohen (D), who was appointed in December 2012 to fill the vacancy left by April Mastroluca, is challenged in the Democratic primary by Daniel Mathis. Amy Groves faces Stephen Silberkraus in the Republican primary.
Retiring incumbents
There are eight incumbent assembly members who are not running for re-election, while 34 (81.0%) are running for re-election.[2] The following table lists all incumbents, five Democrats and three Republicans, who are not running for re-election.
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Marilyn Dondero Loop |  Democratic |
Assembly District 5 |
| Andrew Martin | Democratic |
Assembly District 9 |
| Joseph Hogan | Democratic |
Assembly District 10 |
| Cresent Hardy |  Republican |
Assembly District 19 |
| Lucy Flores | Democratic |
Assembly District 28 |
| William Horne | Democratic |
Assembly District 34 |
| Thomas Grady | Republican |
Assembly District 38 |
| Pete Livermore | Republican |
Assembly District 40 |
In addition, District 3 incumbent Peggy Pierce (D) passed away in October 2013, leaving the seat vacant until the winner of the general election is sworn in.
See also
- Nevada elections, 2014
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Nevada State Senate elections, 2014
- Nevada State Assembly elections, 2014
External links
- Nevada Secretary of State, "2014 Filed Candidates"
- Clark County, 2014 candidate list
- Washoe County, 2014 candidate list
Footnotes
