Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Wisconsin elections in 2014

June 23, 2014

2014 Wisconsin Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measures • State executive officials • School boards State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

The Wisconsin State Senate is designated by Ballotpedia as a battleground chamber, where a shift in partisan control from Republican to Democrat is statistically possible, and could potentially end Wisconsin being on the list of 23 state government trifectas held by the GOP. The party currently controls both state legislative chambers and the office of Governor, held by Republican Scott Walker.

There is a three-seat difference (18-15) between Republicans and Democrats in the State Senate. There are 17 State Senate seats up for grabs in 2014. In those State Senate races, 14 will feature head-to-head matches between the two major parties in the general election.  

All 99 State Assembly seats are up for re-election. Republicans hold a 21-seat partisan lead in the Assembly. In 2014, about 12 percent of Assembly incumbents running for re-election will face competition in the primary. That rate is down from 17 percent in 2012 and 2010.

June 2 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Wisconsin State Senate and Wisconsin State Assembly. Elections in 17 Senate districts and 99 Assembly districts will consist of a primary election on August 12, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections, Wisconsin State Senate elections and Wisconsin State Assembly elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds a majority in both state legislative chambers. Wisconsin's office of Governor is held by Scott Walker (R), making the state one of 23 Republican state government trifectas.

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is 3 seats, or 17.7 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 14 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Wisconsin State Senate
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	15	14
	Republican Party	17	19
	Vacancy	1	0
Total		33	33

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the House is 21 seats, 21.2 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. In 56 of the 99 districts up for election, two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Wisconsin House of Representatives
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	38	36
	Republican Party	60	63
	Independent	1	0
Total		99	99

2015 → ← 2013
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Margin of victory

Senate

Sixteen seats in the Senate were up for election in 2012. One of those districts held competitive elections with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Another district held mildly competitive elections with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. Neither of those districts are up for election in 2014.

House

All 99 seats in the House were up for election in 2012. Eleven of those districts held competitive elections with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Another four districts held mildly competitive elections with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.

All fifteen of those districts will be up for election again in 2014. The following districts are considered to be competitive:

• District 1: The winners of the primary elections with face off in the general election. Joe Majeski will face Arnie Johnsrud in the Democratic primary. Paul Feit will face Brian Hackbarth, Joel Kitchens, Jon Kruse and Terry McNulty in the Republican primary. Incumbent Garey Bies (R) won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
• District 26: Terry Van Akkeren (D) will face off against the winner of the Republican primary in the general election. Incumbent Michael Endsley will face Job Hou-Seye and Terry Katsma in the Republican primary. Endsley won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
• District 50: Incumbent Ed Brooks (R) will face off against Christopher Miller (D) in the general election. Brooks won the general election by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
• District 51: Dick Cates (D) will face off against the winer of the Republican primary in the general election. Charles Nichols will face Todd Novak, Curt Peterson, Dennis Polivka, Ken Rynes and Tyler Schultz in the Republican primary. Incumbent Howard Marklein (R) won the general election by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
• District 68: Incumbent Kathy Bernier (R) will face off against Jeff Peck (D) in the general election. Bernier won the general election by a margin of victory of 5 percent in 2012.
• District 70: Incumbent Amy Vruwink (D) will face off against Nancy Vander Meer (R) in the general election. Vruwink won the general election by a margin of victory of 0.5 percent in 2012.
• District 72: Incumbent Scott Krug (R) will face off against the winner of the Democratic primary in the general election. Dana Duncan will face Tom Rayome in the Democratic primary. Krug won the general election by a margin of victory of 0.4 percent in 2012.
• District 75: Incumbent Stephen Smith (D) will face off against the winner of the Republican primary in the general election. Ken Mandley will face Romaine Quinn in the Republican primary. Smith won the general election by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 85: Incumbent Mandy Wright (D) will face off against Dave Heaton (R) in the general election. Wright won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
• District 88: Dan Robinson (D) will face off against John Macco (R) in the general election. Incumbent John Klenke (R) won the general election by a margin of victory of 5 percent in 2012.
• District 93: Incumbent Warren Petryk (R) will face off against Jeff Smith (D) in the general election. Petryk won the general election by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.

The following districts are considered to be mildly competitive:

• District 37: Incumbent John Jagler (R) will face off against Mary Arnold (D) in the general election. Jagler won the general election by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 49: Incumbent Travis Tranel (D) will face off against Chad Henneman (R) the general election. Tranel won the general election by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 67: Incumbent Tom Larson (R) will face Gary Stene (D) in the general election. Larson won the general election by a margin of victory of 7 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Wisconsin's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 26 open seats (22.4%) in the two chambers.
• A total of 11 incumbents (12.2%) face a primary challenger.
• 70 districts (60.3%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing Wisconsin Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	19.9%	16	17.2%	46	71.5%	19	36.2	16
2012	24.4%	20	17.0%	32	75.7%	15	39.08	19
2014	22.4%	Pending	12.2%	Pending	60.3%	Pending	31.6	Pending

Senate

The following table details competitiveness in the Wisconsin State Senate.

Wisconsin Senate Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
41.2%	11.8%	82.4%	45.1

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 3 (17.6%) of the 17 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of one Republican and two Democrats are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 14 (82.4%) of the 17 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

One incumbent will face primary competition on August 12. Seven incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another nine incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. In District 13, incumbent Scott Fitzgerald will face Terry Virgil in the Republican primary.

Retiring incumbents

Seven incumbent senators, three Democrats and four Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 9 (87.5%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Joe Leibham	Republican	Senate District 9
Neal Kedzie	Republican	Senate District 11
Tim Cullen	Democratic	Senate District 15
Dale Schultz	Republican	Senate District 17
Michael Ellis	Republican	Senate District 19
Dale Schultz	Democratic	Senate District 21
Robert Jauch	Democratic	Senate District 25

House

The following table details competitiveness in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

Wisconsin House Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
19.2%	10.1%	56.6%	28.6

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 43 (43.4%) of the 99 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 24 Republicans and 19 Democrats are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 56 (56.6%) of the 99 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of ten incumbents will face primary competition on August 12. Nineteen incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 70 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state representatives facing primary competition include:

• District 3: Incumbent Alvin R. Ott will face Joshua Young in the Republican primary.
• District 8: Incumbent JoCasta Zamarripa will face Laura Manriquez in the Democratic primary.
• District 12: Incumbent Frederick P. Kessler will face Ollie Dombrow in the Democratic primary.
• District 16: Incumbent Leon D. Young will face Tracy Dent in the Democratic primary.
• District 22: Incumbent Don Pridemore will face Janel Brandtjen, Nick Oliver and Blair Rogacki in the Republican primary.
• District 26: Incumbent Michael Endsley will face Job Hou-Seye and Terry Katsma in the Republican primary.
• District 63: Incumbent Robin Vos will face Bryn Biemeck in the Republican primary.
• District 69: Incumbent Bob Kulp will face Debra Koncel in the Republican primary.
• District 97: Incumbent Bill Kramer will face Scott Allen, Joe Banske, Kathleen Cummings, Aaron Perry, Brandon Rosner and Vince Trovato in the Republican primary.
• District 98: Incumbent Adam Neylon will face Brian Miller in the Republican primary.

Retiring incumbents

Nineteen incumbent representatives, seven Democrats and twelve Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 80 (80.8%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Garey Bies	Republican	House District 1
Chad Weininger	Republican	House District 4
Sandy Pasch	Democratic	House District 10
Jon Richards	Democratic	House District 19
Steven Kestell	Republican	House District 27
Erik Severson	Republican	House District 28
Stephen Nass	Republican	House District 33
Janis Ringhand	Democratic	House District 45
Howard Marklein	Republican	House District 51
Dean Kaufert	Republican	House District 55
Penny Bernard Schaber	Democratic	House District 57
Pat Strachota	Republican	House District 58
Daniel LeMahieu	Republican	House District 59
Duey Stroebel	Republican	House District 60
Janet Bewley	Democratic	House District 74
Brett Hulsey	Democratic	House District 78
Fred Clark	Democratic	House District 81
Mary Williams	Republican	House District 87
John Klenke	Republican	House District 88

See also

• State legislative elections, 2014
• Wisconsin elections, 2014
• Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2014
• Wisconsin State Assembly elections, 2014

External links

• Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, Candidates Registered by Office (dead link)

Footnotes

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2026

State legislative elections (2026) • State legislative special elections (2026) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2026 Session Dates

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State legislative elections (2025) • State legislative special elections (2025) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2025 Session Dates

Historical elections

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Features of state legislatures

How vacancies are filled in state legislatures • States with a full-time legislature • State legislatures with term limits • Comparison of state legislative salaries • When state legislators assume office after a general election • Population represented by state legislators • State constitutional articles governing state legislatures • State legislative sessions • Resign-to-run law • State legislature candidate requirements by state • Official names of state legislatures • State legislative chambers that use multi-member districts • Factors Affecting Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections

State senates

Length of terms of state senators • State senators • Partisan composition of state senates • State senators sorted by year first elected

State houses

Length of terms of state representatives • State representatives • Partisan composition of state houses • State representatives sorted by year first elected

Leadership positions

President of the Senate • President Pro Tempore • Senate Majority Leader • Senate Minority Leader • House Majority Leader • House Minority Leader • State Speaker of the House

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