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Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff)
- Runoff date: May 24, 2022
- Mail-in registration deadline: April 25, 2022
- Online registration deadline: N/A
- In-person registration deadline: April 25, 2022
- Early voting starts: May 16, 2022
- Early voting ends: May 20, 2022
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
- Absentee/mail-in voting deadline: May 24, 2022
Michelle Vallejo defeated Ruben Ramirez in the Democratic Party primary runoff on May 24, 2022 for Texas' 15th Congressional District. The results of a recount completed on June 17 affirmed Vallejo's victory by 35 votes.[1]
Ramirez announced he would request a recount on June 6.[2] The Texas Democratic Party approved the recount request on June 9, and the recount was expected to begin on June 15.[3] Under state law, candidates may request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 10%. To learn more about how recounts work in Texas, click here.
Ramirez worked as an attorney and is an Army veteran and former teacher who previously ran for election in the 15th District in 2012 and 2016.[4] His top campaign priorities were healthcare, national security, and education. Ramirez said he would "continue to fight for my fellow veterans and district. Like all challenges I have faced, I will not back down and I promise to uphold our values and our Constitution” if elected.[5]
Vallejo was a business owner and co-founder of two advocacy groups, New Leaders Council STX Frontera chapter and Hustle + Socialize.[6] Her platform included supporting Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, and an anti-war foreign policy.[7] “I think traditionally these races are based on who has the most purchasing power when it comes to mailers, signs, and media, and I’m so grateful that for my campaign that’s not the only thing we’re focusing on, and I love that it started with the energy of having a ground game,” Vallejo said.
Healthcare was one of the contested issues in the race. Vallejo said she supported a single-payer univeresal healthcare system because it "would extend Medicare to cover dental, hearing, prescription drugs, mental health and substance abuse treatment, long-term and disability care, and reproductive and maternity care."[8] Ramirez said he would preserve the Affordable Care Act, and said, "Rising costs are making it harder for South Texas families to make ends meet, but Michelle Vallejo supports ending the Affordable Care Act and your employer-sponsored health insurance, and raising taxes on the middle class to pay for her new program."[9]
According to The Texas Tribune, Texas' 15th Congressional District became more favorable to Republicans as a result of redistricting. Joe Biden (D) won the district by two percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump (R) would have won the new district by three percentage points.[10] The Cook Political Report and other outlets rated the 15th district Solid Democratic in 2020 but rated it Lean Republican in 2022.
Michelle Vallejo (D) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.
This page focuses on Texas' 15th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary, Republican primary, and the general election, see the following pages:
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary)
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary)
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022

Election news
This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election. The timeline is updated regularly as polling, debates, and other noteworthy events occur.
The most recent events are shown first. Click the banner below to see a full timeline.
- June 17, 2022: The Texas Democratic Party announced the results of the recount, with Vallejo defeating Ramirez by 35 votes.[1]
- June 9, 2022: The Texas Democratic Party approved the recount request, and the recount was expected to begin on June 15.[11]
- June 6, 2022: Ramirez said he would request a recount.[12]
Candidates and election results
Democratic primary runoff election
Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15
Michelle Vallejo defeated Ruben Ramirez in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15 on May 24, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michelle Vallejo ![]() | 50.1 | 6,079 |
![]() | Ruben Ramirez | 49.9 | 6,049 |
Total votes: 12,128 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff compiled a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[14]
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: Ramirez completed a bachelor's in business administration in international business and a minor in biology from the University of Texas-Pan American. He served in the Army and worked as an attorney and educator. Ramirez ran for election in Texas' 15th Congressional District in 2012 and 2016.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Texas District 15 in 2022.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "My name is Michelle Vallejo, and I am running for Congress to represent Texas district 15. I come from a big family of farm workers, immigrants, and entrepreneurs. My parents did a little bit of everything, but running Pulga Los Portales is what has profoundly defined our family values and work ethic to this day. In 2010, during my sophomore year at Columbia University in New York City, my life would change forever. After years of fighting multiple sclerosis, my mother took her last breath at just 46 years old. It was this moment that would mark a new chapter in my life, one in which I realized that the best way to honor her legacy is to fight for a better future for my family and for all of us. So I returned to the Rio Grande Valley and got to work. I stepped up to help my dad run our family-owned Pulga Los Portales. I co-founded two organizations to support community leaders and minority women in business. I’ve volunteered with immigrants’ rights organizations. And now, I was nominated to run for Congress by LUPE Votes. I want us to build stronger and healthier neighborhoods. I have a plan to make this happen, and it starts with fighting for medicare for all and raising the minimum wage to $15. We’re at a critical moment for the future of our district. I’m ready to fight our pueblo in Congress. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Texas District 15 in 2022.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
Collapse all
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Michelle Vallejo (D)
A living wage
Access to higher education

Michelle Vallejo (D)
We need to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour because $7.25 is not enough to pay rent and bills in South Texas (or anywhere in the country). Even though South Texas has one of the lowest unemployment rates, our region has one of the highest poverty rates. It’s time to raise the unlivable low wages that hurt the vast majority of us and only benefit greedy corporations.
We need free public college and trade school, and we need to forgive all student debt once and for all. Sky-rocketing tuition costs have made college and trade school inaccessible for many South Texans. For those who graduate, student debt crushes opportunities, especially for low-income, first-generation, people of color.
And we need to embrace the border as a welcoming place where people of all backgrounds and walks of life can come together and thrive. The border and the river are parts of us that we should honor because they give us our culture and way of life. Militarization, walls, and violence don’t represent who we are. We need to welcome newcomers with dignity, restore and improve our asylum system, and give a pathway to Citizenship for the 11 million undocumented people.
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Ruben Ramirez
Have a link to Ruben Ramirez's campaign ads on YouTube? Email us.
Satellite ads
This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.
Democratic Majority for Israel
Democratic Majority for Israel released an ad supporting Ramirez on May 6:[15]
Michelle Vallejo
|
View more ads here:
News and conflicts in this primary
This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Democratic U.S. House primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Democratic primary endorsements | ||
---|---|---|
Endorser | ![]() | ![]() |
Government officials | ||
Nanette Barragán (D) source | ✔ | |
Salud Carbajal (D) source | ✔ | |
U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar (D) source | ✔ | |
U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D) source | ✔ | |
Terry Canales (D) | ✔ | |
Armando Martinez (D) | ✔ | |
Individuals | ||
Eliza Alvarado | ✔ | |
Frmr. State Sen. Wendy Davis source | ✔ | |
John Villarreal Rigney | ✔ | |
Organizations | ||
Communications Workers of America-COPE Political Contributions Committee source | ✔ | |
Democratic Majority for Israel PAC | ✔ | |
Democrats Serve source | ✔ | |
Elect Democratic Women source | ✔ | |
EMILY's List source | ✔ | |
LUPE Votes source | ✔ | |
New Politics source | ✔ | |
Texas Working Families Party source | ✔ | |
United Farm Workers source | ✔ | |
United Farm Workers of America source | ✔ | |
Vote Vets source | ✔ |
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[16]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[17][18][19]
Race ratings: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Election spending
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[20] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[21] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.
U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022 | ||
---|---|---|
Report | Close of books | Filing deadline |
Year-end 2021 | 12/31/2021 | 1/31/2022 |
April quarterly | 3/31/2022 | 4/15/2022 |
July quarterly | 6/30/2022 | 7/15/2022 |
October quarterly | 9/30/2022 | 10/15/2022 |
Pre-general | 10/19/2022 | 10/27/2022 |
Post-general | 11/28/2022 | 12/08/2022 |
Year-end 2022 | 12/31/2022 | 1/31/2023 |
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ruben Ramirez | Democratic Party | $493,222 | $493,222 | $0 | As of September 30, 2022 |
Michelle Vallejo | Democratic Party | $2,346,631 | $2,334,914 | $11,717 | As of December 31, 2022 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[22][23][24]
If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.
By candidate | By election |
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Election context
District history
The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2016.
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House Texas District 15
Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. defeated Monica De La Cruz and Ross Lynn Leone in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) | 50.5 | 115,605 |
![]() | Monica De La Cruz (R) ![]() | 47.6 | 109,017 | |
Ross Lynn Leone (L) | 1.9 | 4,295 |
Total votes: 228,917 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Carlos Fabara (G)
Republican primary runoff election
Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15
Monica De La Cruz defeated Ryan Krause in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 15 on July 14, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Monica De La Cruz ![]() | 76.0 | 7,423 |
![]() | Ryan Krause ![]() | 24.0 | 2,350 |
Total votes: 9,773 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15
Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Vicente Gonzalez Jr. | 100.0 | 43,689 |
Total votes: 43,689 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15
Monica De La Cruz and Ryan Krause advanced to a runoff. They defeated Tim Westley in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Monica De La Cruz ![]() | 43.0 | 11,330 |
✔ | ![]() | Ryan Krause ![]() | 39.7 | 10,441 |
![]() | Tim Westley | 17.3 | 4,550 |
Total votes: 26,321 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Carl Spandau (R)
Libertarian convention
Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15
Ross Lynn Leone advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 21, 2020.
Candidate | ||
✔ | Ross Lynn Leone (L) |
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Texas District 15
Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. defeated Tim Westley and Anthony Cristo in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) | 59.7 | 98,333 |
![]() | Tim Westley (R) ![]() | 38.8 | 63,862 | |
![]() | Anthony Cristo (L) ![]() | 1.6 | 2,607 |
Total votes: 164,802 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15
Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Vicente Gonzalez Jr. | 100.0 | 33,549 |
Total votes: 33,549 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15
Tim Westley advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Tim Westley ![]() | 100.0 | 14,794 |
Total votes: 14,794 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Vicente Gonzalez (D) defeated Tim Westley (R), Vanessa Tijerina (G), and Ross Lynn Leone (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. A runoff for both parties was held on May 24, 2016. In the runoff primaries, Westley defeated Ruben Villarreal, and Gonzalez defeated Juan Palacios Jr. Incumbent Ruben Hinojosa did not seek re-election.[25][26]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | ![]() |
57.3% | 101,712 | |
Republican | Tim Westley | 37.7% | 66,877 | |
Green | Vanessa Tijerina | 3.1% | 5,448 | |
Libertarian | Ross Lynn Leone | 1.9% | 3,442 | |
Total Votes | 177,479 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
45% | 13,164 | ||
![]() |
32% | 9,349 | ||
Xavier Salinas | 23% | 6,734 | ||
Total Votes | 29,247 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
50.5% | 1,384 | ||
Ruben Villarreal | 49.5% | 1,355 | ||
Total Votes | 2,739 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
42.2% | 22,151 | ||
![]() |
18.9% | 9,913 | ||
Dolly Elizondo | 16.9% | 8,888 | ||
Joel Quintanilla | 11.7% | 6,152 | ||
Ruben Ramirez Hinojosa | 6% | 3,149 | ||
Rance Sweeten | 4.2% | 2,224 | ||
Total Votes | 52,477 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
65.7% | 16,071 | ||
Juan Palacios Jr. | 34.3% | 8,379 | ||
Total Votes | 24,450 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State |
Primary election competitiveness
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Texas.
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Texas in 2022. Information below was calculated on Jan. 27, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
In 2022, 223 candidates filed to run for Texas’ 38 U.S. House districts, including 143 Republicans, 79 Democrats, and one independent candidate. That’s 5.9 candidates per district, less than the 6.5 candidates per district in 2020 and 5.9 in 2018.
Texas gained two U.S. House districts following the 2020 census. Two members of the U.S. House filed to run for re-election in a different district than the one represented before redistricting: Lloyd Doggett (D) filed in the new 37th District, while Vicente Gonzalez (D) filed in the 34th District seat held by retiring Rep. Filemon Vela (D).
Six districts were open, meaning no incumbent filed to run. In addition to Gonzalez’s and Doggett’s districts, these included the newly-created 38th District and the 1st, 8th, and 30th districts. 1st District incumbent Louie Gohmert (R) filed to run for state attorney general, while incumbents Kevin Brady (R) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) did not file for re-election.
This was the same number as 2012, the previous post-redistricting cycle, and 2020. There were seven open seats in 2018.
There were 13 incumbents who filed to run in districts without any primary challengers.
Three districts were likely to be won by Republicans because no Democrats filed. There were no districts where the same is true of Democratic candidates.
Fifteen candidates each filed to run in the 15th and 30th Districts, more than any other. Six Democrats and nine Republicans filed in the 15th. Nine Democrats and six Republicans filed in the 30th. Both districts were open.
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Texas in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.
Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
Texas | U.S. House | Democratic or Republican | 2% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 500, whichever is less | $3,125.00 | 12/13/2021 | Source |
Texas | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 500, whichever is less | N/A | 6/23/2022 | Source |
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
- Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
District map
Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.
Texas District 15
before 2020 redistricting cycle
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Texas District 15
after 2020 redistricting cycle
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Effect of redistricting
The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[27] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[28]
2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Texas | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
District | 2022 district | Political predecessor district | ||
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() |
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | |
Texas' 1st | 26.5% | 72.4% | 27.2% | 71.6% |
Texas' 2nd | 37.9% | 60.7% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
Texas' 3rd | 42.0% | 56.4% | 48.7% | 49.8% |
Texas' 4th | 36.4% | 62.4% | 24.4% | 74.4% |
Texas' 5th | 38.2% | 60.6% | 37.9% | 60.9% |
Texas' 6th | 37.4% | 61.3% | 47.8% | 50.8% |
Texas' 7th | 64.2% | 34.5% | 53.6% | 45.1% |
Texas' 8th | 35.8% | 63.0% | 28.1% | 70.6% |
Texas' 9th | 76.2% | 22.8% | 75.7% | 23.3% |
Texas' 10th | 39.8% | 58.6% | 48.4% | 50.0% |
Texas' 11th | 29.1% | 69.5% | 19.7% | 79.1% |
Texas' 12th | 40.1% | 58.3% | 37.9% | 60.5% |
Texas' 13th | 26.5% | 72.0% | 19.4% | 79.2% |
Texas' 14th | 35.0% | 63.6% | 39.6% | 59.0% |
Texas' 15th | 48.1% | 51.0% | TX-15: 50.4% TX-34: 51.5% |
TX-15: 48.5% TX-34: 47.5% |
Texas' 16th | 67.0% | 31.5% | 66.4% | 32.0% |
Texas' 17th | 38.0% | 60.5% | 43.6% | 54.6% |
Texas' 18th | 73.6% | 25.1% | 75.7% | 23.0% |
Texas' 19th | 26.2% | 72.4% | 26.3% | 72.2% |
Texas' 20th | 65.8% | 32.7% | 63.7% | 34.7% |
Texas' 21st | 39.4% | 59.1% | 47.9% | 50.6% |
Texas' 22nd | 41.3% | 57.4% | 48.9% | 49.8% |
Texas' 23rd | 45.8% | 52.9% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
Texas' 24th | 43.0% | 55.4% | 51.9% | 46.5% |
Texas' 25th | 33.8% | 64.9% | 44.4% | 54.0% |
Texas' 26th | 40.0% | 58.6% | 42.1% | 56.3% |
Texas' 27th | 38.1% | 60.6% | 37.5% | 61.2% |
Texas' 28th | 52.9% | 45.9% | 51.6% | 47.2% |
Texas' 29th | 67.8% | 31.0% | 65.9% | 32.9% |
Texas' 30th | 77.8% | 21.0% | 79.8% | 18.9% |
Texas' 31st | 39.0% | 59.2% | 47.6% | 50.4% |
Texas' 32nd | 65.7% | 32.7% | 54.4% | 44.0% |
Texas' 33rd | 74.2% | 24.4% | 73.0% | 25.6% |
Texas' 34th | 57.3% | 41.8% | TX-15: 50.4% TX-34: 51.5% |
TX-15: 48.5% TX-34: 47.5% |
Texas' 35th | 71.7% | 26.5% | --- | --- |
Texas' 36th | 33.6% | 65.2% | 26.9% | 71.9% |
Texas' 37th | 75.5% | 22.7% | 67.7% | 30.5% |
Texas' 38th | 40.2% | 58.4% | --- | --- |
Competitiveness
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Texas.
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Texas in 2022. Information below was calculated on Jan. 27, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
In 2022, 223 candidates filed to run for Texas’ 38 U.S. House districts, including 143 Republicans, 79 Democrats, and one independent candidate. That’s 5.9 candidates per district, less than the 6.5 candidates per district in 2020 and 5.9 in 2018.
Texas gained two U.S. House districts following the 2020 census. Two members of the U.S. House filed to run for re-election in a different district than the one represented before redistricting: Lloyd Doggett (D) filed in the new 37th District, while Vicente Gonzalez (D) filed in the 34th District seat held by retiring Rep. Filemon Vela (D).
Six districts were open, meaning no incumbent filed to run. In addition to Gonzalez’s and Doggett’s districts, these included the newly-created 38th District and the 1st, 8th, and 30th districts. 1st District incumbent Louie Gohmert (R) filed to run for state attorney general, while incumbents Kevin Brady (R) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) did not file for re-election.
This was the same number as 2012, the previous post-redistricting cycle, and 2020. There were seven open seats in 2018.
There were 13 incumbents who filed to run in districts without any primary challengers.
Three districts were likely to be won by Republicans because no Democrats filed. There were no districts where the same is true of Democratic candidates.
Fifteen candidates each filed to run in the 15th and 30th Districts, more than any other. Six Democrats and nine Republicans filed in the 15th. Nine Democrats and six Republicans filed in the 30th. Both districts were open.
Presidential elections
Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 15th the 216th most Republican district nationally.[29]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
2020 presidential results in Texas' 15th based on 2022 district lines | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | |||
48.1% | 51.0% |
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Texas, 2020
Texas presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 16 Democratic wins
- 15 Republican wins
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Texas and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
Demographic Data for Texas | ||
---|---|---|
Texas | United States | |
Population | 25,145,561 | 308,745,538 |
Land area (sq mi) | 261,266 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White | 74% | 72.5% |
Black/African American | 12.1% | 12.7% |
Asian | 4.8% | 5.5% |
Native American | 0.5% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Other (single race) | 5.8% | 4.9% |
Multiple | 2.7% | 3.3% |
Hispanic/Latino | 39.3% | 18% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate | 83.7% | 88% |
College graduation rate | 29.9% | 32.1% |
Income | ||
Median household income | $61,874 | $62,843 |
Persons below poverty level | 14.7% | 13.4% |
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019). | ||
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
State party control
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Texas' congressional delegation as of November 2022.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Texas, November 2022 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 0 | 12 | 12 |
Republican | 2 | 24 | 26 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 2 | 36 | 38 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Texas' top four state executive offices as of November 2022.
State executive officials in Texas, November 2022 | |
---|---|
Office | Officeholder |
Governor | ![]() |
Lieutenant Governor | ![]() |
Secretary of State | ![]() |
Attorney General | ![]() |
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Texas State Legislature as of November 2022.
Texas State Senate
Party | As of November 2022 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 13 | |
Republican Party | 18 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 31 |
Texas House of Representatives
Party | As of November 2022 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 65 | |
Republican Party | 83 | |
Vacancies | 2 | |
Total | 150 |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Texas was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Texas Party Control: 1992-2022
Three years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
2022 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:
- Nebraska gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary)
- Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary)
- New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary)
- New York's 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary)
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary)
See also
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary)
- Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022
- United States House elections in Texas, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primaries)
- United States House elections in Texas, 2022 (March 1 Republican primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2022
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2022
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2022
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2022
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 CBS, "Texas Democrat Michelle Vallejo wins congressional primary after recount," June 18, 2022
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Jessica Cisneros, Ruben Ramirez demand recounts in two close-call South Texas runoff races," June 6, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek," June 9, 2022
- ↑ Ruben Ramirez for Congress, "Home," accessed February 8, 2022
- ↑ The Monitor, "Bronze Star recipient Ruben Ramirez to make congressional bid," October 25, 2021
- ↑ Michelle Vallejo for Congress, "Meet Michelle," accessed February 8, 2022
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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- ↑ Michelle Vallejo for Congress, "Platform," accessed May 12, 2022
- ↑ Ruben Ramirez for Congress, "News," accessed May 12, 2022
- ↑ The Texas Tribune, "U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez will run for a different House seat in 2022 after redistricting made his more competitive," October 26, 2021
- ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek," June 9, 2022
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Jessica Cisneros, Ruben Ramirez demand recounts in two close-call South Texas runoff races," June 6, 2022
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "With 33-vote lead, Michelle Vallejo declares victory in South Texas congressional runoff," June 1, 2022
- ↑ In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
- ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek," May 6, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
- ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016
- ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 12, 2022
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023