Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. All 435 seats were up for election. Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 117th Congress.

On this page, you will find:

This page focuses on U.S. House Republican primaries. For more in-depth information about U.S. House Republican primaries and general elections, see the following pages:

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. All 435 seats were up for election.

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party		As of November 8, 2022	After the 2022 Election
	Democratic Party	220	213
	Republican Party	212	222
	Vacancies	3	0^[1]
Total		435	435

Republican primaries

Alaska, California, Louisiana, and Washington are included in the list below even though they do not hold partisan primaries. Alaska uses a top-four primary system, and California and Washington use a top-two primary system. In both systems, all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation are listed on the same primary ballot. Louisiana uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation are listed on the same first-round ballot.

By date

2022 Republican Party primary elections
Battleground primaries
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; State executive battlegrounds
Federal primaries
	U.S. Senate primaries ; U.S. House primaries; U.S. House primaries with multiple incumbents
State primaries
	Gubernatorial primaries; Attorney General primaries; Secretary of State primaries; State legislative primaries
Primary overviews
	Democratic Party primaries, 2022; Republican Party primaries, 2022; Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2022; U.S. House battleground primaries, 2022
Primaries by state
	AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingSubmit

2022 Republican primaries by date
Date	State
March 1	Texas
May 3	Indiana Ohio
May 10	Nebraska West Virginia
May 17	Idaho Kentucky North Carolina Oregon Pennsylvania
May 24	Alabama Arkansas Georgia
June 7	California Iowa Mississippi Montana New Jersey New Mexico South Dakota
June 14	Maine Nevada North Dakota South Carolina
June 21	Virginia
June 28	Colorado Illinois Oklahoma Utah
July 19	Maryland
August 2	Arizona Kansas Michigan Missouri Washington
August 4	Tennessee
August 9	Connecticut Minnesota Vermont Wisconsin
August 13	Hawaii
August 16	Alaska Wyoming
August 23	Florida New York
September 6	Massachusetts
September 13	Delaware New Hampshire Rhode Island
November 8	Louisiana^[2]

By state

2022 Republican primaries by state
State	Date
Alabama	May 24
Alaska	August 16
Arizona	August 2
Arkansas	May 24
California	June 7
Colorado	June 28
Connecticut	August 9
Delaware	September 13
Florida	August 23
Georgia	May 24
Hawaii	August 13
Idaho	May 17
Illinois	June 28
Indiana	May 3
Iowa	June 7
Kansas	August 2
Kentucky	May 17
Louisiana	November 8
Maine	June 14
Maryland	July 19
Massachusetts	September 6
Michigan	August 2
Minnesota	August 9
Mississippi	June 7
Missouri	August 2
Montana	June 7
Nebraska	May 10
Nevada	June 14
New Hampshire	September 13
New Jersey	June 7
New Mexico	June 7
New York	August 23
North Carolina	May 17
North Dakota	June 14
Ohio	May 3
Oklahoma	June 28
Oregon	May 17
Pennsylvania	May 17
Rhode Island	September 13
South Carolina	June 14
South Dakota	June 7
Tennessee	August 4
Texas	March 1
Utah	June 28
Vermont	August 9
Virginia	June 21
Washington	August 2
West Virginia	May 10
Wisconsin	August 9
Wyoming	August 16

Battleground primaries

See also: Republican Party battleground primaries, 2022

There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022.

The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name.

Incumbents defeated

The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. House.^[3]

U.S. House incumbents defeated in 2022
Name	District	Primary or general election?	Election winner	Margin of victory
Cindy Axne	Iowa's 3rd	General	Zach Nunn	R+0.7
Carolyn Bourdeaux	Georgia's 7th	Primary	Lucy McBath	D+31.8
Madison Cawthorn	North Carolina's 11th	Primary	Chuck Edwards	R+1.5
Steve Chabot	Ohio's 1st	General	Greg Landsman	D+5.0
Liz Cheney	Wyoming At-Large	Primary	Harriet Hageman	R+37.4
Rodney Davis	Illinois' 15th	Primary	Mary Miller	R+15.2
Mayra Flores	Texas' 34th	General	Vicente Gonzalez Jr.	D+8.4
Bob Gibbs^[4]	Ohio's 7th	Primary	Max Miller	N/A
Yvette Herrell	New Mexico's 2nd	General	Gabriel Vasquez	D+0.6
Mondaire Jones	New York's 10th	Primary	Daniel Goldman	D+7.5
Alfred Lawson	Florida's 2nd	General	Neal Dunn	R+19.6
Andy Levin	Michigan's 11th	Primary	Haley Stevens	D+19.0
Elaine Luria	Virginia's 2nd	General	Jennifer Kiggans	R+4.1
Tom Malinowski	New Jersey's 7th	General	Thomas Kean Jr.	R+4.6
Carolyn Maloney	New York's 12th	Primary	Jerrold Nadler	D+32.1
Sean Maloney	New York's 17th	General	Michael Lawler	R+1.2
David McKinley	West Virginia's 2nd	Primary	Alexander Mooney	R+18.6
Peter Meijer	Michigan's 3rd	Primary	Hillary Scholten John Gibbs^[5]	R+3.4^[6]
Marie Newman	Illinois' 6th	Primary	Sean Casten	D+39.3
Tom O'Halleran	Arizona's 2nd	General	Eli Crane	R+8
Steven Palazzo	Mississippi's 4th	Primary	Mike Ezell	R+7.2
Tom Rice	South Carolina's 7th	Primary	Russell Fry	R+26.5
Kurt Schrader	Oregon's 5th	Primary	Lori Chavez-DeRemer Jamie McLeod-Skinner^[7]	D+14.2^[8]
Van Taylor^[9]	Texas' 3rd	Primary	Keith Self	N/A
Jaime Herrera Beutler	Washington's 3rd	Primary	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Joe Kent^[10]	R+0.5^[11]

Historical comparison

The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party.

Defeated U.S. House incumbents by party, 2000-2022
Year	Democratic incumbents lost	Republican incumbents lost	Total
2022	12	13	25
2020	16	5	21
2018	2	32	34
2016	3	9	12
2014	12	6	18
2012	10	17	27
2010	54	4	58
2008	6	17	23
2006	0	22	22
2004	5	2	7
2002	12	5	17
2000	4	5	9

U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022

The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections.

U.S. House incumbents who announced candidacies in the same district for the 2022 elections
U.S. House incumbent (party)	District	U.S. House incumbent (party)	District	2022 District	Election winner
Neal Dunn	Florida's 2nd	Al Lawson	Florida's 5th	Florida's 2nd^[12]	Dunn
Carolyn Bourdeaux	Georgia's 7th	Lucy McBath	Georgia's 6th	Georgia's 7th^[13]	McBath
Sean Casten	Illinois' 6th	Marie Newman	Illinois' 3rd	Illinois' 6th^[14]	Casten
Rodney Davis	Illinois' 13th	Mary Miller	Illinois' 15th	Illinois' 15th^[15]	Miller
Andy Levin	Michigan's 9th	Haley Stevens	Michigan's 11th	Michigan's 11th^[16]	Stevens
Carolyn Maloney	New York's 12th	Jerry Nadler	New York's 10th	New York's 12th^[17]	Nadler
Mayra Flores	Texas' 34th	Vicente Gonzalez Jr.	Texas' 15th	Texas' 34th^[18]	Gonzalez
David McKinley	West Virginia's 1st	Alex Mooney	West Virginia's 2nd	West Virginia's 2nd^[19]	Mooney

Links to redistricting coverage

For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see:

News and conflicts in the 2022 Republican House primaries

The following were reprinted from Ballotpedia's The Heart of the Primaries newsletter, which captured stories related to conflicts within each major party.

September 15, 2022

Breaking down Trump's primary endorsements and outcomes

Perhaps the most persistent storyline throughout the 2022 GOP primaries was former President Donald Trump's (R) involvement, mainly via endorsements. We tallied 244 primaries and conventions in which Trump endorsed, 241 of which had taken place as of September 15, 2022 (the other three were in Louisiana). See our endorsements page for a full list.

Unopposed

Of the primaries completed at the time, 60 candidates (25%) Trump endorsed ran unopposed. (We counted candidates who only had write-in opposition as unopposed.)

Contested

Of the 176 contested primaries that had taken place in which Trump endorsed (excluding five races in which candidates didn't make the ballot), 159 Trump endorsees won and 17 lost. That's a success rate of 90%.

Endorsed GOP incumbent challengers

Some of the most noteworthy GOP primaries of the year were those where Trump endorsed a challenger to a Republican incumbent. There were 17 such primaries, and six endorsed challengers defeated incumbents. All are listed in the table below.

Note that we didn't include the two primaries in which GOP incumbents ran against each other due to redistricting. In West Virginia's 2nd, Trump backed Rep. Alex Mooney against Rep. David McKinley, and Mooney won. And in Illinois' 15th, Trump-endorsed Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis. (More on these races below.)

Over the year, we covered a number of stories on battleground races in which Trump's influence was a major theme. Here are just a few stories capturing key moments:

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska (July)
Trump endorses Vance in Ohio U.S. Senate primary (April)
Trump endorses Oz in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary (April)
RGA releases second pro-Kemp ad, Trump campaigns for Perdue in Georgia (March)
Arrington challenges Mace in SC-01 with Trump endorsement (February)

Potential 2024 presidential contenders emerge as counter-force

We also saw a thread of counter-forces throughout the primaries. Sometimes it was contrasting endorsements, and other times, overt criticism of Trump's involvement.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) made five gubernatorial primary endorsements in 2022, three of which contrasted with Trump's endorsements. Pence backed Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona, incumbent Brian Kemp in Georgia, and Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin.

In one of our first Heart of the Primaries issues of the 2022 cycle, we wrote that Maryland's term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Kelly Schultz in the gubernatorial primary the day after Trump endorsed Dan Cox. Cox won the primary in July, and Hogan said he wouldn't support Cox in the general election.

Hogan said Trump's endorsements against incumbent Republicans hurt the party. Hogan branched out from his home state, fundraising for incumbents Trump opposed including Kemp and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03).

Arizona's term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, chairman of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), endorsed Taylor Robson in Arizona's gubernatorial primary along with Beau Lane for secretary of state, countering Trump's endorsement of Mark Finchem in the latter primary.

We also wrote about the RGA spending $850,000 on pro-Kemp ads during Georgia's primary. The Hill's Max Greenwood said that "the spot for Kemp marks the first time that the group is financing a TV ad in a primary to support an incumbent facing a Republican challenger."

Trump, Pence, Hogan, and Ducey were all on our list of potential 2024 presidential candidates as of September 2022.

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

According to a Washington Post analysis, Democratic groups and individuals spent around $53 million in Republican primaries this year, 65% of which occurred in Illinois' gubernatorial primary. The rest occurred in 12 primaries across eight states.

The Post's Annie Linskey wrote, "Some Democrats explain their actions by saying they are simply getting a jump on attacking Republican candidates for the general election, while others openly acknowledge trying to secure weaker competition in the fall. But there is little dispute about the effect of altering the Republican primaries in ways that could affect the November matchups."

We wrote about Democratic groups spending in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary and the 2nd Congressional District last week. Previous issues included stories on Democratic spending in Maryland's gubernatorial election and Illinois' gubernatorial primary.

After the $35 million Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the Democratic Governors Association spent on ads the Post said were meant to boost Darren Bailey, who won the GOP primary, the Post found the next-highest spending levels in Colorado's U.S. Senate primary ($4 million), Nevada's gubernatorial primary ($3.9 million), and New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary ($3.2 million).

The Post described candidates the Democratic groups apparently intended to support as far right. Four of those candidates won primaries and seven lost.

Linskey's piece also discussed the debate among Democrats over Democratic spending in GOP primaries. Read more here.

Cross-party primary spending has happened before. For example, in 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ran ads designed to boost Todd Akin in Missouri's GOP Senate primary, whom McCaskill went on to defeat in the general election. In 2020, a Republican group spent on ads and activities supporting Erica Smith (D) in North Carolina's Democratic Senate primary. Cal Cunningham defeated Smith in the primary.

Redistricting and the primaries: By the numbers

The 2022 primaries were the first using new district boundaries enacted after the 2020 census. Forty-four states adopted new congressional district maps. Six states had only one congressional district.

Forty-nine states adopted new legislative district boundaries, except for Montana. The state's Legislature only meets in odd-numbered years and adjourned before the U.S. Census Bureau delivered data to the states on Aug. 12, 2021.

Seven new congressional districts

There were seven new congressional districts as a result of six states gaining U.S. House districts during apportionment: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas (which gained two seats).

Seven states—California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—lost one district each.

Six member vs. member elections

As a result of redistricting, six U.S. House districts had two incumbents running against each other in their party's primaries (winner is in bold):

Georgia's 7th: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) vs. Lucy McBath (D)
Illinois' 6th: Sean Casten (D) vs. Marie Newman (D)
Illinois' 15th: Rodney Davis (R) vs. Mary Miller (R)
Michigan's 11th: Andy Levin (D) vs. Haley Stevens (D)
New York's 12th: Carolyn Maloney (D) vs. Jerry Nadler (D)
West Virginia's 2nd: David McKinley (R) vs. Alex Mooney (R)

In the 2012 House elections following the most recent round of redistricting, 11 primaries featured two incumbents: seven Democratic, three Republican, and one all-party primary in Louisiana with two Republican incumbents.

Two House general elections in 2022 were set to feature two incumbents in November: Neal Dunn (R) against Al Lawson (D) in Florida's 2nd and Mayra Flores (R) against Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) in Texas' 34th.

Click here for more on these multi-member matchups.

In 2022, there were 48 incumbent vs. incumbent state legislative primaries: 16 for Democrats and 32 for Republicans.

Two rescheduled primaries

Two states held contests for different types of offices on two different dates because of court decisions regarding redistricting.

New York held statewide and state Assembly primaries as originally scheduled on June 28 and congressional and state Senate primaries on Aug. 23. The New York Court of Appeals, the state's highest court, overturned the state's congressional and state Senate maps on April 27, ruling that both violated the state's constitutional redistricting process.

Ohio held congressional and statewide primary elections on May 3 and legislative primaries on Aug. 2. The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's adopted legislative district boundaries on April 14, after previously overturning three other sets of legislative maps that the legislature or state redistricting commission had approved. The state ultimately used maps the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted.

U.S. House incumbent primary losses exceed last two redistricting cycles

Overall, 15 House incumbents lost in 2022 primaries—nine Republicans and six Democrats. (Those figures include Republican Bob Gibbs (OH-07), who unofficially withdrew but whose name still appeared on the ballot.) Six incumbent losses were inevitable in 2022 due to primaries featuring two incumbents. Still, the number exceeded the previous two post-redistricting elections in 2012 and 2002. In 2012, 13 House incumbents lost primaries. And in 2002, eight incumbents lost.

Here is 2022's list of defeated U.S. House incumbents:

Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Georgia's 7th
Mondaire Jones (D) - New York's 10th
Andy Levin (D) - Michigan's 11th
Carolyn Maloney (D) - New York's 12th
Marie Newman (D) - Illinois' 6th
Kurt Schrader (D) - Oregon's 5th
Madison Cawthorn (R) - North Carolina's 11th
Liz Cheney (R) - Wyoming's At-Large District
Rodney Davis (R) - Illinois' 15th
Bob Gibbs (R) - Ohio's 7th
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Washington's 3rd
David McKinley (R) - West Virginia's 2nd
Peter Meijer (R) - Michigan's 3rd
Steven Palazzo (R) - Mississippi's 4th
Tom Rice (R) - South Carolina's 7th

Four of the nine Republican losses this year were among incumbents who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Ten Republicans total voted yes on impeachment, and six of them ran for re-election.

September 8, 2022

Satellite spending and polling roundup in NH battleground races

Here's a roundup of the latest satellite spending and polling ahead of New Hampshire's congressional primaries on Sept. 13.

In the Senate primary, two satellite groups placed ad buys totaling more than $10 million combined in recent weeks.

White Mountain PAC is spending more than $4 million on ads supporting state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has trailed Don Bolduc in polls. The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is spending $6 million on ads opposing Morse. The Washington Post's Azi Paybarah said the PAC is trying to boost Bolduc and that its involvement is "the latest example of Democrats spending money to boost far-right candidates in Republican primaries in the belief they will be easier to defeat in November."

A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll showed Bolduc leading Morse 43% to 22%, with 20% undecided. The poll's margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is running for re-election. Hassan defeated Kelly Ayotte (R) 48.0% to 47.9% in 2016.

The 1st Congressional District primary has seen more than $2 million in satellite spending. The Congressional Leadership Fund spent more than $800,000 supporting 2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers. The group Defending Main Street spent more than $500,000 opposing Karoline Leavitt. American Dream Federal Action spent $300,000 supporting Mowers, and Truth & Courage PAC spent $200,000 supporting Leavitt.

In UNH's 1st District poll, Mowers and Leavitt were essentially tied 26% to 24%. Gail Huff Brown was next with 16%, and 26% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Incumbent Chris Pappas is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

In the 2nd District, American Liberty Action PAC is spending almost $500,000 supporting Keene Mayor George Hansel. The PAC Democrats Serve spent $100,000 on an ad saying Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns "follows the Trump playbook on immigration, the border and guns."

Politico's Ally Mutnick said the Democratic group is trying to "elevat[e] a far-right candidate over a moderate backed by GOP Gov. Chris Sununu." Sununu endorsed Hansel. One of the major issues in the race is abortion. Burns calls himself pro-life, while Hansel says he's pro-choice.

In UNH's 2nd District poll, Burns had 32% to Hansel's 18%. Lily Tang Williams had 10%, and 37% were undecided. The MOE was +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Incumbent Annie Kuster is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Race ratings and electoral history suggest competitive Senate and House general elections in New Hampshire this year.

September 1, 2022

Peltola wins special U.S. House election (and other Alaska updates)

On Aug. 16, Alaska held top-four primaries and a special U.S. House election, the latter of which used ranked-choice voting. Certification is expected by tomorrow, and most battleground races have been called.

U.S House special general: Mary Peltola (D) won the election. On the final round of unofficial ranked-choice voting tabulation, Peltola had 51.5% of the vote to Sarah Palin's (R) 48.5%. This election fills the term ending Jan. 3, 2023.

Before tabulation began, Peltola had 40% of first-choice votes, followed by Palin with 31% and Nick Begich III (R) with 28%. Write-in candidates received a combined 1.6% of the vote.

Write-in candidates were eliminated first as a batch. Then Begich was eliminated. The votes of those who chose eliminated candidates as first choices were redistributed to the voters' second-choice candidates if they chose such. Watch a livestream of the tabulation from the Alaska Division of Elections here.

Peltola will be Alaska's first Democratic U.S. representative since Nick Begich Sr.—Nick Begich III's grandfather. Begich Sr.'s plane went missing while he was in office in 1972. Don Young (R) won a special election to succeed Begich. Young served until his death in March of this year.

Peltola, Palin, and Begich will meet again in the regularly scheduled general election for U.S. House in November. General elections for all offices below will be held Nov. 8 and will use ranked-choice voting as well.

U.S. House regular primary: As of Wednesday, The New York Times had called three of the four general election spots for Peltola, Palin, and Begich III. Peltola led with 37% of the vote, followed by Palin with 30%, Begich with 26%, and Tara Sweeney (R) with 4%.

Sweeney said she'll withdraw from the race, meaning the fourth spot would go to the fifth-place finisher. As of Wednesday, that was Libertarian Chris Bye, who had 0.6% of the vote. Sept. 2 is the target election certification date, and Sept. 6 is the ballot certification date.

Alaska governor: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), Bill Walker (Independent), Les Gara (D), and Charlie Pierce (R) advanced to the general election. Dunleavy had 41% of the vote, followed by Walker and Gara with 23% each and Pierce with 7%.

Dunleavy was elected governor in 2018. He succeeded Walker, who initially ran for re-election that year and withdrew weeks ahead of the general election. Gara served in the state House of Representatives from 2003 to 2019. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

U.S. Senate: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), Patricia Chesbro (D), and Buzz Kelley (R) advanced to the general election. Murkowski had 45% of the vote, followed by Tshibaka with 39%, Chesbro with 7%, and Kelley with 2%.

Murkowski first took office in 2002. Tshibaka is a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration. Chesbro is a retired teacher. Kelley is a retired mechanic.

Murkowski is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year who voted guilty during former President Donald Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. Murkowski's endorsers include U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Trump and the Alaska Republican Party endorsed Tshibaka.

August 25, 2022

Primary results roundup

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching two battleground Republican primaries in those states. Here’s how those races unfolded:

New York’s 23rd Congressional District: Nicolas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino 51%-47%.

Langworthy is a former chairman of the New York Republican Party who was also a member of the executive committee for Donald Trump’s (R) presidential transition in 2016. Paladino was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in New York.

Both candidates won endorsements from national Republicans. Langworthy’s endorsers included U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R), and Paladino’s included U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The 23rd District is currently vacant following Tom Reed’s (R) resignation in May amidst an allegation of sexual misconduct.

Election forecasters rate the general election Solid/Safe Republican.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special runoff: Markwayne Mullin defeated T.W. Shannon 65%-35%.

Mullin is a member of the U.S. House who was first elected in 2012. Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank and a former state representative.

Mullin and Shannon were the top two finishers from a 13-candidate field running for the Republican nomination for the four remaining years in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R) term. Inhofe will retire in January.

Mullin’s endorsers include former President Donald Trump (R), and Shannon’s included former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Media coverage

Politico wrote about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) endorsements:

“

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis’ biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary. … For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. It’s part of his broader agenda to reshape Florida’s education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis’ formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.^[20]

”

The Tampa Bay Times wrote about incumbents’ performance in Florida’s primaries:

“

If the Democratic establishment had a good night, the Republican Party institution had a great one.

Senate President Wilton Simpson comfortably defeated primary challenger James W. Shaw in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner. Several incumbent U.S. representatives — Vern Buchanan, for example — crushed primary opponents challenging them from the right.

Then there were the candidates who lost.

During his two terms in office, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, R-Howey-in-the-Hills, made enemies around the Florida Legislature. He repeatedly clashed with his own party’s leadership, calling Chris Sprowls, the top Republican in the Florida House, a RINO: Republican In Name Only. As Sabatini geared up for the 7th Congressional District GOP primary, it was apparent that top state Republicans were rooting for him to lose.

He did, by more than 10,000 votes, to veteran Cory Mills, whose campaign netted more than a dozen endorsements from GOP U.S. representatives. After the race was called, Sabatini blamed the result on “the Swamp.”

In The Villages-area 11th Congressional District primary, a similar story played out in far-right activist Laura Loomer’s challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Loomer, who has called Islam a “cancer on society,” lost the primary by about 5,000 votes. (She refused to concede Tuesday, citing “big tech election interference.”)^[20]

”

St. Anselm poll finds most voters undecided, Mowers and Leavitt about even in NH-01

A recent St. Anselm College poll shows that most Republican voters in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District are undecided about who they will vote for, with Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt leading.

The poll, conducted between Aug. 9-11, found Leavitt and Mowers about even with 25% and 21% support, respectively. The only other candidates to register more than 5% support were Gail Huff Brown at 9% and Tim Baxter at 8%.

Another 33% of respondents said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.

Mowers was the 1st District nominee in 2020 and earlier served as an aide to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). Mowers won 59% of the vote in the 2020 primary, defeating four other candidates, before losing to Chris Pappas (D), 51% to 46%, in the general election.

Leavitt worked as a presidential writer and assistant press secretary in President Donald Trump’s (R) administration. After Trump left office, Leavitt was communications director for U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik.

Leavitt launched her first TV ad on Aug. 16, describing herself as a conservative outsider and New Hampshire native.

National Republicans are supporting both Mowers and Leavitt. Mowers' endorsers include former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Leavitt's include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), and U.S. Reps. Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.).

As of June 30, Mowers had raised $1.57 million to Leavitt's $1.27 million.

Primaries in New Hampshire are semi-closed, meaning a voter must either be a member of the party or not be a member of any party in order to participate.

The winner will face two-term incumbent Pappas. Two election forecasters rate the general election a toss-up, and a third says it tilts towards Democrats.

Click here to see stories from previous editions.

August 18, 2022

Primary results roundup

Wyoming's U.S. House District: Harriet Hageman defeated Rep. Liz Cheney 66%-29%. Hageman had backing from former President Donald Trump (R), dozens of incumbent House Republicans, and Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). Cheney's supporters included Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), and former President George W. Bush (R).

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and has worked as an attorney. In 2014, Hageman worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign. Hageman said she challenged Cheney this year because of Cheney’s focus on the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. Cheney is vice chairwoman of the committee.

Cheney has represented Wyoming in the House since 2017. She was the third-highest-ranking Republican when she chaired the House Republican Conference from 2018 to May 2021, when House Republicans voted to remove Cheney from the position after she criticized Trump and voted to impeach him.

Cheney is the 12th House incumbent and eighth Republican to lose a primary this year. Five defeated incumbents faced fellow incumbents in primaries due to redistricting.

Before we get into Alaska's results, here’s a refresher: Alaska held top-four primaries for several offices and a ranked-choice special general election for U.S. House on Tuesday. This year's are the first elections under the system voters approved in 2020.

Alaska's special U.S. House election: This race won't be callable until at least Aug. 31, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive for the special election. After all eligible ballots are in, election officials will begin ranked-choice voting tabulation. As of Wednesday, Mary Peltola (D) had 38% of first-choice votes, followed by Sarah Palin (R) with 32% and Nicholas Begich III (R) with 29%. Write-in candidates received votes as well.

In initial rounds of tabulation, last-place finishers will be eliminated, and the votes from people who voted for those candidates will be redistributed to those voters' second-choice candidates (if they ranked someone second). The process continues until one candidate receives a majority of votes.

Al Gross (I) had also advanced from the special top-four primary, but he withdrew from the race in June.

Rep. Don Young (R) died in March. The special election will fill the remainder of Young's term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. The winner will be sworn in after results are certified. Certification is currently scheduled for Sept. 2.

Alaska's top-four U.S. House primary: Peltola, Begich, and Palin are leading the 22-candidate field with 35%, 31%, and 27%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Tara Sweeney (R) was fourth with 4% and Chris Bye (L) fifth with 1%. This is for the regular two-year term from January 2023-2025.

Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Kelly Tshibaka (R) led with 44% and 40%, respectively, as of Wednesday. Patricia Chesbro (D) had 6%, Buzz Kelley (R) had 2%, and five candidates had 1% each.

Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. Tshibaka is a former state Department of Administration commissioner. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) endorsed Murkowski. Tshibaka has Trump's and the state GOP's endorsements.

Alaska Governor top-four primary: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) had 42%, and Les Gara (D) and Bill Walker (I) had 22% each as of Wednesday. Charlie Pierce (R) had 7% and Christopher Kurka (R), 4%. Five other candidates ran.

Walker was governor from 2014 to 2018 when Dunleavy was elected. Walker initially ran for re-election in 2018 but withdrew from the race. Gara is a former state House member, and Kurka currently serves in the chamber. Pierce worked as a manager at ENSTAR Natural Gas Company.

Media analysis

Politico Huddle wrote about Cheney's loss in the context of other Republicans who voted for impeachment:

“

Of the 10 House Republicans who bucked their party and standard bearer of the new GOP to vote to impeach the-President [sic] Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection, just two are left with a chance to return to Congress next year.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the leading critic of Trump within the Republican party, was toppled last night by primary challenger Harriet Hageman, who embraced Trump and won his endorsement. Cheney is the fourth impeachment Republican to lose a primary this cycle. Four others chose retirement over a bruising reelection effort. … The last men standing are Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who succeeded in primaries but still must survive a general election.

"I have said since Jan. 6 that I will do whatever it takes to ensure that Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office, and I mean it," Cheney said at the close of her concession speech in Jackson, Wyoming, last night.

"This primary election is over, but now the real work begins," she said.

What that "real work" is, still isn’t clear. In the near term, Cheney will return to Capitol Hill for more Jan. 6 select committee hearings. She could mount a bid for the White House, though either a GOP primary or independent run would be long shots.

Our friends at Playbook scooped that Cheney will launch a new organization in the coming weeks "to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president," Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler told Playbook.^[20]

”

Anchorage Daily News wrote about the challenges Alaska's top three U.S. House candidates have faced and their prospects both in the current elections and in the regular general election:

“

Palin has a devoted following but is also resented by many longtime Alaskans who recall her decision to resign the governorship and become a reality television star. Begich is running with the support of the Alaska Republican Party establishment, but is battling an association with his Democratic uncle, former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Either Begich or Palin would have to rely on second-place votes in order to overtake Peltola in the ranked choice tabulation.
…
Matt Shuckerow, a political consultant who has previously worked for Young, said the results put Palin “in the driver’s seat.” If she remains in second position, he said she will likely get a sufficient number of Begich voters’ second-place votes to propel her ahead of Peltola.
…
After results came in Tuesday night, Begich said in a phone call that he remains “really optimistic” about his November run. Peltola’s campaign manager Anton McParland also said they were already looking ahead to November.

Shuckerow said the November election results could be different from the special election results. Turnout is typically significantly higher in November compared to the August primary, which can change both campaign strategies and the makeup of the voters.
…
John-Henry Heckendorn, a political consultant who runs Ship Creek Group, which has advised Peltola’s campaign, said the results are particularly encouraging for the Democrat’s campaign. Rural Alaskans and progressives — two groups that are likely to favor Peltola — have higher turnout in the November election. And Peltola has had less money to spend on getting her name out there, meaning that there are still many voters who aren’t familiar with her, polling suggests, he said.

“Mary has the biggest ceiling of any of the candidates,” Heckendorn said.^[20]

”

More than $3 million in satellite spending in OK-02 primary runoff

The Frontier reported that two super PACs have spent more than $3 million combined in Oklahoma’s 2nd Congressional District between the June 28 GOP primary and next week's primary runoff.

Avery Carl Frix and Josh Brecheen advanced from the 14-candidate primary field with 14.7% and 13.8%, respectively. Brecheen served in the state Senate from 2010 to 2018. Frix has served in the state House since 2016.

School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate, is supporting Brecheen and has spent $1.8 million in the runoff. A recent ad features Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) saying Brecheen "opposed every tax increase in the legislature. He fought for parents' rights in education. And he defended the Second Amendment."

The Frontier wrote,

“

The group’s attacks on Frix have been trying to paint him as a pro-tax legislator, claiming in mailers he voted for $2.7 billion in tax hikes during his time in the Oklahoma House of Representatives. "They’re missing the fact that we were able to balance the budget," Frix said.^[20]

”

The Fund for a Working Congress has spent $1.3 million. According to The Frontier,

“

In mailers, Fund for a Working Congress accused Brecheen of wanting to end the electoral college, saying that if he "had his way Hillary Clinton would be President." "A half-truth is a whole lie," Brecheen said. "They’re taking a vote out of context."^[20]

”

Brecheen voted for a National Popular Vote bill in the state Senate in 2014 and said he regretted the vote.

Oklahoma's 2nd District is open as incumbent Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R) is running in the special U.S. Senate election. This is a safe Republican district. The primary runoff is Aug. 23.

Florida’s 13th Congressional District primary leads the state in satellite spending

Satellite groups have spent millions in Florida’s 13th Congressional District ahead of next week’s GOP primary, including more than $1.7 million in recent weeks both supporting and opposing two candidates: Kevin Hayslett and Anna Paulina Luna.

Florida Politics’ Kelly Hayes wrote that political committees have spent $900,000 on pro-Hayslett/anti-Luna ads and $800,000 on pro-Luna/anti-Hayslett ads. According to Open Secrets, satellite groups have spent more in this race than in any other Florida primary for federal office this year.

The highest spenders in the primary are Stand for Florida, supporting Hayslett, and Club for Growth Action, supporting Luna. Stand for Florida, a single-candidate super PAC, has spent $630,000 supporting Hayslett and $1.4 million opposing Luna. Club for Growth Action has spent $1.3 million opposing Hayslett and $620,000 supporting Luna.

Hayslett and Luna both completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. Click their names to read their full responses.

Hayslett, a private practice lawyer and former Florida assistant state attorney, said he was “running for Congress to lower taxes and protect our hard earned money.” He said, “We must combat our current affordability crisis, lower gas prices, and work to lower inflation that is crushing Florida families.” Hayslett said, “I am law enforcement's choice for Congress, and will always support policies that protect our communities and support law enforcement.”

Luna, a U.S. Air Force veteran and conservative commentator who has worked for Turning Point USA and Prager U., said she wanted to “[b]ring America Back to Energy INDEPENDENCE aka American Oil from American Soil,” “[d]efund China and bring back American manufacturing,” and “[e]mpower people over government to include in our education system (parent's rights), medical decisions (I am against mandates), and against big tech!”

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Luna in September 2021.

Five candidates are running in the Aug. 23 primary. The winner will face Democrat Eric Lynn in the general election, which independent forecasters view as Likely Republican after redistricting. Incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor.

August 11, 2022

Primary results roundup

Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin held primaries on Tuesday. Here are some highlights.

Wisconsin Governor: Tim Michels won with 47% of the vote to Rebecca Kleefisch's 42% as of Wednesday morning. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Michels. Former Gov. Scott Walker and former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed Kleefisch. Michels faces Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the Toss-up general election.

Wisconsin State Assembly District 63: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos defeated Adam Steen 51% to 49%. Vos has been in office since 2005, and his peers chose him as speaker in 2013. Trump endorsed Steen the week before the primary.

Vermont U.S. House: Liam Madden won the primary with 41% of the vote as of Wednesday afternoon. Ericka Redic had 32% and Anya Tynio, 27%. Madden describes himself as an independent and said as of Wednesday he was deciding whether to accept the GOP nomination or run as an independent. In his Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey, Madden said, "The two party system prevents us from solving our problems. It doesn't represent us, doesn't work, drives us apart, and is controlled by elites."

Also, some updates from Aug. 2 primaries:

Washington's 3rd District and Washington's 4th District: Each of these top-two primaries featured a Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. In the 4th District, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) and Doug White (D) advanced. The 3rd District race isn't called yet. As of Wednesday, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) had 31%, Trump-backed Joe Kent (R) had 23%, and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) was third with 22%. Herrera Beutler conceded on Tuesday. If Herrera Beutler loses, she'll be the 11th U.S. representative who ran for re-election and lost in a primary this year.

Arizona Governor: Kari Lake won with 48% to Karrin Taylor Robson's 43%. This was another race where Trump and Pence backed different candidates, with Trump endorsing Lake and Pence endorsing Taylor Robson.

Media analysis

Courthouse News Service wrote about Michels' and Kleefisch's campaign messages and the possible effects a Republican governor would have on Wisconsin law:

“

Kleefisch’s campaign connected her to the Walker administration’s highest profile moves, including most prominently the passage of Act 10, a 2011 law that gutted the collective bargaining power of most public sector unions and sparked massive protests from what Kleefisch has called “the liberal mob.”

Michels, who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in 2004, ran a campaign based on his business acumen and disregard for the political culture in the state Capitol in Madison. The 60-year-old spent nearly $12 million of his own money on his campaign and cast himself as a disruptive candidate similar to Donald Trump, who endorsed Michels and stumped for him in Waukesha on Aug. 5.

Kleefisch, 47, was backed by Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, Wisconsin’s most influential business and commerce lobbies, and important figures in the state Republican Party like Vos. …

With the Wisconsin Legislature firmly in the control of Republicans for now — and very likely for the near future — either candidate as governor would have been likely to sign into law sweeping changes or maintain current conservative legislation on abortion, education and, maybe most importantly, elections.^[20]

”

Fox6 wrote about the conflict over the 2020 presidential election between Vos and Steen:

“

Vos has had a hand in every major Republican initiative over the last decade.

Vos, and the Republican agenda, has been largely blocked by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers the past two years. Vos fell out of favor with Trump after he refused to push to decertify Biden’s win in Wisconsin. Vos, citing legal experts, said decertification was unconstitutional.

Steen, a landlord who has never served in public office, ran on the platform of decertifying the election. Days before the primary, he touted his support for banning all birth control.^[20]

”

The Cook Political Report said of Republican representatives who voted for impeachment:

“

Herrera Beutler's loss, combined with Rep. Liz Cheney's likely defeat in Wyoming next week and California Rep. David Valadao's vulnerability in November, means it's possible only one of ten pro-impeachment Republicans — Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04) will remain in Congress come January 2023. In the 4th CD, Newhouse only squeaked past extremely weak, Trump-endorsed small town sheriff Loren Culp 25%-21% to advance to the fall.^[20]

”

Republican Main Street Partnership releases policy agenda

The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) released its agenda on energy, jobs, the supply chain, public safety and policing, and "standing for freedom." Proposals include resuming Keystone Pipeline construction, decreasing the reduction of Social Security benefits for retirees who return to work, and instituting "strict guidelines to hold district attorneys and prosecutors accountable for the safety of their communities."

Five U.S. senators and 62 U.S. representatives are members of RMSP. Roll Call's Kate Ackley wrote:

“

The effort is designed to give candidates a message to sell on the campaign trail. It also aims to build public support for what to expect and to avoid what [RMSP member] Rep. Mike Bost , R-Ill., said were problems that developed after Republicans took the House majority during Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration.

"I’m a conservative, but I watched, I watched last time people pursuing 'No,'" Bost said, referring to colleagues whose goal was to block Obama’s agenda and even to thwart their own House speaker, such as John A. Boehner of Ohio. "We can’t pursue 'No.' We’ve got to govern."^[20]

”

RMSP's website says it is "dedicated to working across the aisle to enact common-sense legislation on issues such as healthcare, family issues, workforce development, the environment (including clean water), and transportation/infrastructure."

The group's PAC endorsed 17 U.S. House candidates this year, 14 of whom won contested primaries. One endorsee lost, and two have outstanding primaries. Allan Fung is running unopposed in Rhode Island's 2nd District and Amanda Makki is running in Florida's Aug. 23 13th District primary.

Makki is in a rematch with Anna Paulina Luna, who has Trump's endorsement. Luna defeated Makki and three others in 2020 with 36% of the vote to Makki’s 28%. Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for governor this year, defeated Luna in the general election 53-47%. Five candidates are running in this year's GOP primary.

After redistricting, the 13th District went from Even to R+6 in Cook's Partisan Voting Index (PVI), indicating a shift in favor of Republicans. The PVI compares each congressional district's results from the last two presidential elections to the country's results as a whole.

Rep. Jackie Walorski dies, special election will be called for IN-02

U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) died in a car accident on Aug. 3. Walorski had represented Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District since 2013. Before that, Walorski served in the state House of Representatives and worked as a television reporter and nonprofit director. Walorski's funeral will be held on Aug. 11 in Granger.

According to state law, Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) must call a special election to fill the remainder of Walorski's term ending Jan. 3, 2023, because the seat became vacant more than 74 days before the general election. Holcomb had not announced a date for the election as of Wednesday.

Democratic and Republican party officials will choose candidates for the special election. Since Walorski was running for re-election, Republicans will also select a candidate for the regular election ballot.

The special election will use the current district lines, while the regular election will use lines drawn after redistricting. Cook's PVI for the district changed little after redistricting—from R+13 to R+14.

Seventeen special elections have been or will be called during the 117th Congress. That's tied with the 115th Congress for the most special elections over the past three decades.

August 4, 2022

Primary results roundup

Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington held statewide primaries on Tuesday. Ohio held state legislative primaries. As of Wednesday afternoon, several of Arizona's races were still undecided. Here are highlights from Tuesday's battlegrounds.

Big stories of the night: MI-03, Michigan gubernatorial, and Missouri U.S. Senate primaries

Michigan's 3rd District: John Gibbs defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer. As of Wednesday morning, Gibbs had 52% to Meijer's 48%. Meijer was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021. Trump endorsed Gibbs in the primary. Gibbs previously served as acting assistant secretary for community planning and development in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Trump appointed him to that position in 2020.

Meijer is one of 10 House incumbents, and one of six Republicans, who ran for re-election and lost in primaries this year. In 2020, eight incumbents lost in primaries or conventions, including five Republicans.

Three race forecasters viewed the general election for Michigan's 3rd as a Toss-up before the primary.

Michigan governor: Tudor Dixon won. As of Wednesday morning, Dixon had 41% of the vote. Kevin Rinke was second with 22%, and Garrett Soldano third with 18%. Trump endorsed Dixon days before the primary. Dixon was a news anchor for America's Voice News.

Race forecasters view the general election as either Lean or Tilt Democratic. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seeking re-election.

U.S. Senate in Missouri: Eric Schmitt won against 20 other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Schmitt had 46% of the vote. Vicky Hartzler had 22%, and Eric Greitens had 19%.

Schmitt has been the state's attorney general since 2019. Hartzler has represented Missouri's 4th Congressional District since 2011. Greitens was governor from 2017 until June 1, 2018, when he resigned following investigations into allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information.

On August 1, Trump released a statement endorsing "Eric" in the race but did not say whether he was endorsing Greitens or Schmitt.

Incumbent Roy Blunt (R), who was first elected in 2010, didn't run for re-election. Before the primary, independent forecasters viewed the general election as Likely or Solid Republican.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate in Arizona: Blake Masters defeated four other candidates. Masters had 39% of the vote with 78% of results reported. Jim Lamon was second with 29% and Mark Brnovich third with 18%. Masters will face incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in what election forecasters view as a Toss-up race in November.

Arizona's 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert won with 43%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. Elijah Norton had 33%, and Josh Barnett 23%. Schweikert currently represents Arizona's 6th Congressional District and ran in the 1st due to redistricting. According to Daily Kos data, 75% of the redrawn 1st District, which covers parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, came from areas Schweikert represents in the old 6th District. Race forecasters view the 1st District general election as Lean Republican.

Arizona's 2nd District: Eli Crane defeated six other candidates with 34% of the vote. Walter Blackman finished second with 24%. Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), who represents the old 1st District, is running in the 2nd. Forecasters view the general election as Likely or Lean Republican.

Kansas attorney general: Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach won with 42% to state Sen. Kellie Warren's 38%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. The race is open as incumbent Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) is running for governor.

Other primaries we've followed closely and that hadn't been called as of Wednesday afternoon were for Arizona governor and superintendent of public instruction. Click the links to follow up on those races.

Media analysis

The Washington Times' Seth McLaughlin wrote about Meijer's defeat and the primary results for other GOP representatives who voted for impeachment:

“

Rep. Peter Meijer lost his primary race Tuesday in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, handing former President Donald Trump another victory in his quest to rid the House of Republicans who voted to impeach him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Another pair of pro-impeachment Republicans — Reps. Dan Newhouse and Jaime Herrera Beulter, both of Washington state — were awaiting their fate Wednesday morning.

But they were well-positioned to advance to the general election in Washington’s top-two primary system, while Mr. Trump’s preferred picks appeared to have fallen short.

Mr. Meijer’s loss came more than 18 months after he joined nine of his GOP colleagues in voting to impeach Mr. Trump.

The former president vowed revenge and has gotten it. Four pro-impeachment Republicans did not seek reelection, and two others have now lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

The attention will now turn to Rep. Liz Cheney’s Aug. 16 primary in Wyoming.^[20]

”

Politico wrote that Tuesday's results were favorable to what it called "the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party:"

“

Republicans dodged two bullets on Tuesday. In Missouri, Eric Greitens, the disgraced former governor, finished far behind in his Senate primary bid. And in Michigan, Tudor Dixon emerged from a gubernatorial primary full of more hard-line contenders many Republicans feared would be a drag on the party in November.

That’s good news for the GOP. And it’s a departure from where the party appeared to be heading in many of its early primaries — picking candidates who seem dangerously prone to getting in the way of the good political environment for Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, physician Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for Senate, has been polling so poorly Republicans are discussing alternative paths to the Senate majority. Republicans all but conceded the gubernatorial race in heavily-Democratic Maryland after nominating Dan Cox, the Trump-endorsed state lawmaker who organized buses to Washington for the rally preceding the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

It’s possible the early results on Tuesday will turn out to be a blip. In Arizona, Mark Finchem, an election denier running for secretary of state with Trump’s endorsement, was running ahead. And overall in this year’s primaries, said Jason Roe, the former executive director of the state Republican Party in Michigan, "I think in a lot of cases we have nominated our weakest general election candidates, so the primaries have not served us well."

But for the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party, the early indications on Tuesday were mostly positive. An exception: Kari Lake, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor who still insists, falsely, that Trump won the 2020 election, pulled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson, the establishment-backed candidate, as vote-counting continued through Wednesday morning.^[20]

”

Reuters' James Oliphant discussed Dixon's win in Michigan in the context of abortion policy and Dixon's prospects against Whitmer in November:

“

In the Michigan governor's race, there will be no middle ground when it comes to abortion rights. … Whitmer has made the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of constitutional protection for abortion a centerpiece in her re-election campaign. Dixon supports a near-total ban on abortion, including for child victims of rape and incest, with the only exception for cases when the life of the mother is at risk.

A legal battle is being waged in the state over enforcement of a 1931 abortion ban. At the same time, supporters of abortion rights are seeking to place a measure on the November ballot that would legalize abortion in the state.

With just three months until the election, longtime Republican pollster Steve Mitchell said Dixon has enough time to mount a competitive challenge to Whitmer and should see a strong flow of campaign funds from outside the state.

Dixon is a former businesswoman in the steel industry who has billed herself as a "conservative mom" of four who opposed COVID-19 lockdowns at schools. Mitchell said she could appeal to like-minded parents and make a strong foil to Whitmer, who often talks about her own role as a mother of daughters and also faced criticism for her coronavirus lockdown orders.

"It’s going to be a fascinating race," Mitchell said. "In my opinion, none of the men (in the Republican field) could have beaten Whitmer."^[20]

”

July 21, 2022

Chambers of Commerce endorse Rep. Peter Meijer in MI-03

The U.S., Michigan, and Grand Rapids Chambers of Commerce all recently endorsed U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer for re-election in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. In addition, Roll Call reported that "GOP super PAC Defending Main Street launched a six-figure mail blitz supporting Meijer."

Meijer was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6. Trump endorsed his primary challenger, John Gibbs. Gibbs said Meijer "chose to be fawned over by the media & the DC establishment instead of doing what's right & representing those who voted for him."

Meijer said, "I take the oath I swore to the Constitution, an oath I took under God, seriously and voted accordingly."

Meijer was elected in 2020 and served in the Army Reserve. Trump appointed Gibbs acting assistant secretary for community planning and development in 2020 after Gibbs served as a senior advisor at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The primary is Aug. 2. The winner will face Hillary Scholten (D) in the general election. Meijer defeated Scholten 53%-47% in 2020. Redistricting made the 3rd District more Democratic-leaning. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

Cheney trails Hageman in first Wyoming U.S. House primary poll

A recent Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the Casper Star-Tribune showed Harriet Hageman leading incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney 52% to 30% in Wyoming's GOP House primary. Eleven percent were undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Cheney was first elected in 2016. She won the 2020 GOP primary with 74% of the vote.

Hageman founded the Wyoming Conservation Alliance and worked for Cheney’s unsuccessful 2014 U.S. Senate campaign. Hageman said she is challenging Cheney because "when she embraced Nancy Pelosi and voted for the partisan impeachment of President Donald Trump, she betrayed our nation, she betrayed Wyoming, and she betrayed me." Earlier this month, we wrote about the candidates' divergence on the 2020 presidential election results and the Jan. 6 investigative committee.

Cheney raised $13.1 million to Hageman’s $3.9 million through June 30.

Wyoming's primary is on Aug. 16.

July 7, 2022

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Former President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday for GOP candidates in three battleground elections: Gov. Mike Dunleavy, At-Large House candidate Sarah Palin, and U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka.

Top-four primaries will be held Aug. 16, the same day as a ranked-choice voting special general election for U.S. House. Candidates of all affiliations will appear on the same ballot in each race.

Dunleavy faces four Republicans, one Democrat, two independents, and two minor-party candidates. That includes former Gov. Bill Walker (I), who withdrew from the 2018 gubernatorial race that Dunleavy ultimately won; former state Rep. Les Gara (D); Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce (R); and state Rep. Christopher Kurka (R).

Nineteen candidates are running for U.S. Senate, including incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R). Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the state Department of Administration, is one of seven Republicans challenging Murkowski. Three Democrats, three minor-party candidates, and five independent or nonpartisan candidates are also running. Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three have seats up for election this year. North Carolina's Richard Burr and Pennsylvania's Pat Toomey aren't seeking re-election.

Palin, a former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, is running in both the special general election and the regular top-four primary for U.S. House on Aug. 16. Palin advanced from the 48-candidate special primary field with 27% of the vote. She joins investor Nick Begich III (R) and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the special general election. Al Gross (I) also advanced from the June 11 primary but withdrew from the race on June 20. Former incumbent Don Young (R) died in March. Twenty-two candidates are running in the top-four regular primary, including Begich, Palin, and Peltola.

The Alaska Republican Party has endorsed both Dunleavy and Pierce in the gubernatorial election, Tshibaka in the Senate election, and Begich in the House election.

Alaska voters approved the new top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system in 2020. Click here for more information.

Cheney, Hageman diverge on 2020 election, Jan. 6 committee at first U.S. House debate

The first debate of Wyoming's GOP congressional primary featured division over the 2020 presidential election results and the January 6 investigative committee. Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney is vice chair of the committee.

Cheney said the Republican Party is "embracing a cult of personality and I won’t be part of that." Cheney said Trump lied about the 2020 election results and that candidate Harriet Hageman, whom Trump endorsed, is also lying about the election because she is beholden to Trump.

Hageman criticized Cheney's role on the House investigative committee and said, "We have serious questions about the 2020 election." Hageman said there are "two different systems of justice in this country," saying people like Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and rioters in Portland, Oregon, aren't held accountable but that conservatives are punished for exercising free speech. During the debate, Hageman also referenced money Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg donated to nonprofits that provided funding to election offices in 2020.

The January 6 committee held six hearings last month. Cheney is one of two Republicans on the nine-member committee, along with Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), who is not seeking re-election. Cheney and Kinzinger were among the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection in 2021.

Wyoming's primary is on Aug. 16.

June 30, 2022

Primary results roundup

Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah held statewide primaries on Tuesday. New York held primaries for statewide offices and state House districts, and Mississippi and South Carolina held primary runoffs. The results below were current as of Wednesday morning.

Big stories of the night

Illinois' 15th District: Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis 58% to 42%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

Davis has represented Illinois' 13th Congressional District since 2013, and Miller has represented the 15th since 2021. According to data from Daily Kos, 28% of the new 15th District's population comes from the old 13th District (which Davis represents), and 31% comes from the old 15th District (which Miller represents).

Davis is one of eight House members who sought re-election and lost this year. Another, Marie Newman (D), lost in Illinois' 6th on Tuesday in another incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. Four primaries featuring multiple incumbents have taken place so far, and two are upcoming.

Illinois Governor: Darren Bailey defeated five other candidates with 57% of the vote. Jesse Sullivan was second with 16%. Richard Irvin finished third with 15%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) is running for re-election.

Bailey is a farmer and was elected to the Illinois Senate in 2020. Sullivan is a venture capitalist who has not previously held political office. Irvin is an attorney and mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city. Bailey received $9 million in contributions from businessman Richard Uihlein. Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin donated $50 million to Irvin.

Colorado U.S. Senate: Joe O'Dea defeated Ron Hanks 55.5% to 45.5%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election.

Key issues in the race included abortion and the 2020 election. O’Dea said he did not support overturning Roe v. Wade or total abortion bans, while Hanks supported a total abortion ban. O’Dea said he did not believe the 2020 election was stolen and that Republicans should focus on issues, while Hanks said he believed former President Donald Trump (R) won the 2020 election.

See below to read about Democratic involvement in this and the Illinois gubernatorial race.

Mississippi's 4th District primary runoff: Mike Ezell defeated incumbent Steven Palazzo 54%-46%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

All five candidates who lost in the June 7 primary endorsed Ezell, who was elected Jackson County sheriff in 2014. Palazzo was first elected to the U.S. House in 2010.

Palazzo is under a House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that he converted campaign funds to pay personal expenses. Palazzo has denied wrongdoing.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special primary: Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon advanced to an Aug. 23 runoff. Mullin received 44% of the vote and Shannon received 18%. Ten candidates ran in the primary. The special election will fill the remainder of retiring incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R) term.

U.S. House

Colorado's 8th District: Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated three other candidates with 41% of the vote. Jan Kulmann finished second with 23%. Colorado gained an eighth congressional district after the 2020 census. Three forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up.

Mississippi's 3rd District primary runoff: Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Michael Cassidy 66% to 34%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Colorado Secretary of State: Pam Anderson won with 44% of the vote. Mike O'Donnell finished second with 29% and Tina Peters third with 27%. Anderson views the 2020 presidential election results as legitimate, while Peters and O'Donnell deny their legitimacy. Peters was indicted on charges stemming from an election tampering investigation, where she has denied wrongdoing. Republicans won each election for this office from 1962 to 2018, when Sec. of State Jean Griswold (D) defeated Wayne Williams (R).

Oklahoma Attorney General: Gentner Drummond defeated incumbent John O'Connor 51% to 49%. No Democratic candidates filed to run. Drummond faces Lynda Steele (L) in the general election.

Media analysis

The Associated Press discussed O'Dea's Senate primary win in context of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization:

“

The abortion debate consumed the nation this week, but there was no race where it mattered more than Colorado's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where businessman Joe O'Dea became one of the only abortion-rights-supporting Republican in the nation to win a statewide primary this year.

O'Dea beat back a stiff challenge from state Rep. Ron Hanks, a Trump loyalist who opposed abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother.

O'Dea will face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in November, and if he wins, he would become just the third Senate Republican — and the only male — to support abortion rights.

He said he backs a ban on late-term abortions and government funding of abortions but that the decision to terminate a pregnancy in the initial months is "between a person and their God.

Democrats had spent at least $2.5 million on ads designed to boost O'Dea's opponent by promoting, among other things, that he was "too conservative for backing a complete abortion ban.^[20]

”

The Hill wrote about results in Illinois' and Colorado's primaries where Democrats sought to influence outcomes:

“

Ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, Democrats made clear what kind of Republicans they hoped to run against in November, pouring money into ads boosting far-right candidates with shaky general election prospects.

That strategy ultimately paid off in the GOP primary for Illinois governor, where Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Sen. Darren Bailey, notched a win over a more moderate Republican, former Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin.

Still, it wasn’t an across-the-board success for Democrats.

In Colorado, Republican Heidi Ganahl beat out Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary despite Democratic-aligned groups spending big to tout Lopez’s conservative credentials.

The same is true in the Colorado GOP Senate primary, where Democrats were hoping to boost conservative state Rep. Ron Hanks over businessman Joe O’Dea, a more moderate Republican. O’Dea ultimately clinched the nomination to take on Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

Democrats still have the incumbent advantage in both the Colorado Senate and gubernatorial race. But the failed efforts to lift up hard-line conservatives in the primaries show the limits of money in politics.^[20]

”

The Washington Examiner wrote that Trump-endorsed candidates' victories in Illinois worsens Republicans' general election prospects in the state:

“

Illinois Republicans are under the thumb of insular, combative populists after state Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller won primaries for governor and Congress, respectively, over appealing conservative pragmatists who would have improved their party’s midterm election prospects in this deep blue state.

Bailey was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Miller, who captured the nomination in Illinois’s newly configured 15th Congressional District, was endorsed by the former president and the Club for Growth, an influential conservative advocacy group based in Washington. So neither qualifies as anti-establishment outsiders.

But Bailey’s victory over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who is black, in the race for the gubernatorial nod and Miller’s defeat of incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis in a House primary forced by redistricting marked the coronation of the Trump-aligned, “MAGA” wing of the party atop the Illinois GOP.^[20]

”

The Chicago Sun-Times' Mark Brown said some factors could benefit Bailey:

“

Now to win a second term, Pritzker must defeat Bailey, a downstate farmer who gained notoriety as a first term state senator by challenging the governor’s COVID-19 restrictions.

Conventional wisdom says Pritzker will do so, marking him as a heavy favorite for November in a Democrat-dominated state that for decades has been hospitable to only moderate Republicans in statewide races.

Bailey is a conservative’s conservative who looks like a candidate from the 1950s with the political beliefs to match and boasts the support of former President Donald Trump, who lost this state by 17 percentage points twice — 944,714 votes in 2016 and 1,025,024 in 2020. Bailey’s path to victory is not readily apparent.

But that’s why elections probably should come with the same disclaimer as the stock market: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Working in Bailey’s favor is the expectation this will be a big Republican year nationally with the usual mid-term presidential backlash compounded by high inflation and gas prices and a worrisome war in Ukraine.

Throw in the fact Democratic voters often don’t turn out in off-year elections and you start to see why Illinois Democrats better not take anything for granted against Bailey.^[20]

”

Cheney campaign tells voters how they can change their party affiliation ahead of primary

According to The New York Times, U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney sent mailers to Democrats telling voters how they can change their party affiliation ahead of Wyoming's primaries. Cheney also includes that information on her campaign website. Voters must be registered Republicans to vote in the state's GOP primary, and they may change their affiliation on primary day or ahead of time.

Cheney is one of two Republicans on the nine-member select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach and has been a vocal critic of Trump, who endorsed challenger Harriet Hageman in the At-Large Congressional District primary.

Hageman's campaign manager, Carly Miller, said, "Liz Cheney promised she wouldn’t encourage Democrats to raid the Republican primary, but then again, she also swore to faithfully represent Wyoming and she broke that promise too."

Cheney said in February she would not organize an effort to ask Democrats to change their affiliation.

Cheney said last week, "I encourage everyone with principles who loves our country to exercise their right to vote. And, damn right, I will continue to give every voter in Wyoming a list of all the key rules for casting ballots in our state."

According to The New York Times' Reid J. Epstein, "It is fairly typical for moderate Wyoming Republicans to recruit Democrats to switch parties ahead of primaries — it was key to Gov. Mark Gordon’s victory over a primary field that included Ms. Hageman in 2018."

University of Wyoming political science professor Jim King wrote that independents, not Democrats, would play a key role in the GOP primary: "In [a] UW 2020 election survey, majorities of Wyoming independents rated Trump’s presidential performance negatively, did not vote for Trump in the presidential election and were confident that the votes in the presidential election were counted accurately. These people are much more likely to support Cheney than Hageman in the Republican primary."

Wyoming's primaries are Aug. 16.

June 16, 2022

Primary results roundup

Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held primaries on June 14. Alaska also held its top-four special House primary on June 11. Here's what went down in this week's marquee races.

South Carolina's 7th: Russell Fry defeated incumbent Rep. Tom Rice and five other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Fry had 51% of the vote to Rice's 25%.

Rice is the fifth incumbent House member to lose a re-election bid this year and the third Republican. Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) lost primaries against fellow incumbents.

South Carolina's 1st: Incumbent Nancy Mace defeated Katie Arrington. Mace led Arrington 53%-45% as of Wednesday morning.

Arrington, a former state representative, won the district's Republican primary in 2018, defeating incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford (R) before losing the general election to Joe Cunningham (D). Mace defeated Cunningham in 2020.

Mace said she was best equipped to win in November and that the district wants an independent voice. Arrington said Mace was not conservative enough and that she wasn't sufficiently supportive of Trump.

Three election forecasters rate the November election Solid or Safe Republican.

U.S. Senate in Nevada: Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt defeated Sam Brown and six other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Laxalt led Brown 56%-34%.

Laxalt had endorsements from Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). The Nevada Republican Party endorsed Brown, who received 80% of delegates' support compared to Laxalt's 50% (a candidate needed more than 50% for the endorsement). Laxalt faces incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in this Toss-up general election.

Alaska's U.S. House special: Saturday's special primary election for Alaska's At-Large Congressional District remains uncalled. The four candidates with the most votes will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election, which will use ranked-choice voting. As of election night, Sarah Palin (R) had 29.8% of the vote, Nicholas Begich III (R) had 19.3%, Al Gross (I) had 12.5%, Mary Peltola (D) had 7.5%, and Tara Sweeney (R) had 5.3%. The 43 other candidates each had less than 5%. The final ballot count is scheduled for June 21. The primary was conducted mainly through mail-in ballots, which had to be postmarked by June 11. Click here for the most up-to-date results.

Media analysis

Politico Playbook wrote that the Republican primary candidates with whom Trump is angry who have won primaries had embraced Trump in their campaigns, while Rice did not:

“

Republicans can survive crossing Trump, but rarely can they survive being anti-Trump …

Trump went one for two in key South Carolina primaries last night. … What explains the difference? On last week’s "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast, we talked to South Dakota Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON about the lessons he learned winning a Republican primary after voting against Trump. (In his case, the vote was about creating an independent January 6 commission.)

"There are going to be times those votes cause you political discomfort," Johnson said. "Don’t run away from them, but don’t run away from the electorate either."

So far this year, the Trump-targeted Republicans who have survived his wrath have run campaigns that embrace Trump even as he spurns them. Whether it’s Idaho Gov. BRAD LITTLE, Johnson in South Dakota or Mace in South Carolina, these victors were all careful not to run against Trump.

In South Carolina, Rep. Rice actually told voters what he thought. Trump, he said in a recent interview with Ally Mutnick, was "spiteful and petty and vengeful" and a "narcissist" who "craves attention." Rice lost. He ran away from the South Carolina GOP electorate.^[20]

”

National Review's Alexandra DeSanctis wrote about other differences between South Carolina's 1st and 7th District primaries that may have influenced outcomes for Mace and Rice:

“

What are we to make of the discrepancy? One way of looking at it is the degree of separation from the former president: Both Rice and Mace had angered him enough to get him to back a primary challenger, but only Rice had voted to impeach him over the events of January 6. Mace condemned the president in a speech and voted to certify the election results, but she didn’t join the ten GOP representatives who voted for impeachment.

Another possible explanation is Mace’s opponent. Arrington has played the role of a right-wing, Trump-supported challenger before, when she unseated former Republican representative Mark Sanford over his criticism of the former president. But Arrington went on to lose to the Democrat candidate in the general election, and perhaps voters were wary of a similar problem this November, though the climate this election year is, of course, quite different. The New York Times adds this bit of insight:

"Ms. Mace raised more money than Ms. Arrington by a 2-to-1 margin and outspent her by more than $300,000 on the airwaves, according to the political spending tracker AdImpact. She courted the district’s most influential political and business leaders and, in the race’s final days, campaigned alongside a number of high-profile figures on the right, including a former Trump White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and former Gov. Nikki Haley."^[20]

”

June 9, 2022

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mississippi incumbents may head to runoffs, Nunn wins IA-03

Two U.S. House incumbents in Mississippi could be headed for runoffs as neither cleared 50% of the vote in their primaries as of Wednesday morning.

Mississippi's 3rd: Rep. Michael Guest had 47% of the vote to Michael Cassidy's 48%. Guest first took office in 2019.

Mississippi's 4th: Rep. Steven Palazzo had 32% to Mike Ezell's 25% and Clay Wagner's 22%. Palazzo was first elected in 2010. The Associated Press wrote, "A 2021 report by the office of Congressional Ethics found 'substantial reason to believe' Palazzo had abused his office by misspending campaign funds, doing favors for his brother, and enlisting staff for political and personal errands. Palazzo declined to fully participate in the investigation, but his spokeswoman at the time, Colleen Kennedy, said the it was based on 'false allegations' made by an opponent in a previous primary."

Runoffs in Mississippi are June 28.

Iowa's 3rd: Zach Nunn defeated Nicole Hasso and Gary Leffler. As of Wednesday morning, Nunn had 66% of the vote to Hasso's 19% and Leffler's 15%. Nunn is a state senator and Air Force veteran.

After the primary, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball changed their general election ratings from Toss-up to Lean Republican.

Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne was first elected in 2018, defeating incumbent David Young (R) 49%-47%. In a 2020 rematch, Axne defeated Young 49% to 48%.

Other marquee primary results

California's 27th: Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) and Christy Smith (D) advanced from a seven-candidate, top-two primary. Garcia had 50% of the vote and Smith had 35% as of Wednesday morning.

In 2020, Garcia defeated Smith in the general election by 333 votes, making it the third-closest U.S. House race that year. Brianna Lee of LAist said the 2022 race should be more competitive because redistricting "jettisoned the district’s most conservative outpost in Simi Valley, giving Democratic voters even more of an edge." Election forecasters consider the race a Toss-up.

California's 40th: We wrote last week that Rep. Young Kim (R) was spending big on ads opposing Greg Raths (R). As of Wednesday morning, Democrat Asif Mahmood had 40%, Kim had 34%, and Raths had 25%. Forecasters call the district Lean or Likely Republican.

California Attorney General: Incumbent Rob Bonta (D) is likely to advance from the top-two primary. Who will join him in the general election is TBD. Bonta had 55% of the vote as of Wednesday morning. Republican Nathan Hochman and Eric Early had 19% and 17%, respectively, and independent Anne Marie Schubert had 8%.

Media analysis

The Washington Post's Aaron Blake discussed two U.S. House primary results in the context of Jan. 6 commission votes and the difficulty of determining how those votes have factored in GOP primaries so far:

“

Later this week, the House Jan. 6 committee will begin holding public hearings on the Capitol insurrection. And on Tuesday, lawmakers’ previous votes on a 9/11-style bipartisan Jan. 6 commission suddenly became a flash point.

Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), who was one of 35 House Republicans to vote for the commission, found himself unexpectedly fighting for his political life. He trailed Michael Cassidy with 88 percent of the vote in, in a result few saw coming. Either candidate would need 50 percent plus one to avoid a runoff.

Another House Republican who voted for the commission was Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.). He wound up surviving his primary against state Rep. Taffy Howard but was taking only about 59 percent of the vote — less than other statewide South Dakota GOP officials facing primaries. Howard has attacked Johnson for being too bipartisan, including by declining to sign on to then-President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

As the Johnson example shows, it’s difficult to say how much of these dynamics stemmed from that particular vote. Unlike votes to impeach Trump, votes for the Jan. 6 commission (which failed in the Senate before the House launched a less bipartisan select committee) have yet to register as a major issue. But that’s in part because there is overlap between that issue and others in which members crossed partisan lines (such as the impeachment votes).

Another of the commission’s supporters in the House GOP, Rep. David B. McKinley (R-W.Va.), lost his primary last month. But that was against a fellow incumbent, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) who also targeted McKinley for the latter’s vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill.^[20]

”

Iowa Starting Line's Amie Rivers wrote that challengers Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) supported against state House incumbents performed well on Tuesday:

“

[A]fter her much-touted school voucher bill failed to gain traction in the Iowa Legislature this year, Gov. Kim Reynolds took her ire out at several fellow Republicans in the Iowa House who called out the bill as not being supportive of public schools and ensured it wouldn’t pass.

With the unofficial election results coming in tonight, it looks like Reynolds got her way in many of the Republican primary contests.

Her bill, Senate File 2369, would have diverted $55 million from public school budgets for up to 10,000 scholarships to pay for students to attend private schools. Legislators, particularly in rural areas with no private schools, were hesitant on the bill, including up to 15 Republicans by some reports. … Reynolds publicly began endorsing primary challengers to some of those legislators up for election this year, while out-of-state organizations that support vouchers have been pumping five-figure donations into their campaign coffers.

It’s unprecedented, Iowa political watchers say. … Republicans who did not support Reynolds’ bill also received some funding from the Iowa State Educational Association, which is against the bill. But they received far less than their primary opponents …^[20]

”

Paul Ryan and Donald Trump clash over SC-07 primary

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) endorsed Rep. Tom Rice in South Carolina's 7th Congressional District. This is Ryan's first 2022 endorsement.

Rice was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021, after which the state GOP censured Rice. He faces six primary challengers, including state Rep. Russell Fry, who Trump endorsed. Fry calls Rice a Republican in name only (RINO).

Rice says his impeachment vote defended the constitution. Myrtle Beach Sun News' Dale Shoemaker wrote, "Rice has argued that Republicans ought to stick with Trump’s policy ideas but abandon the man himself. He’s argued that he voted for Trump’s policy priorities 94% of the time and was a key player in shaping the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, along with Ryan."

Ryan said, "There were a lot of people who wanted to vote like Tom but who just didn’t have the guts to do it. … This is just such a crystal clear case where you have a hard working, effective, senior member of Congress who deserves reelection vs. people who are just trying to be celebrities who may be trying to help Trump with his vengeance."

Following Ryan's endorsement, Trump said, "Did anyone notice that Fox News went lame (bad!) when weak RINO Paul Ryan, who is despised in the Great State of Wisconsin for being 'a pathetic loser,' went on the Fox Board." Ryan joined the Fox Corp. board in 2019.

Ryan, Mitt Romney's vice presidential running mate in 2012, served in the House from 1998 to 2019 and as speaker from 2015 until his retirement. Ryan was critical of Trump throughout the 2016 presidential election.

In a 2019 interview, Ryan said about Trump's win, "I felt a major onset of responsibility to help the institutions survive. … So, from the next day on, my mantra was: 'Only one person can be speaker of the House. … Our job from now on is to build up the country’s antibodies ... to have the guardrails up, to drive the car down the middle of the road, and don’t let the car go off into the ditch.'"

Last week, Ryan said the GOP is undergoing growing pains and that "if you become a majority party you have to be a big tent party that can accommodate all different kinds of conservatives."

South Carolina's primaries are June 14.

The first-ever top-four congressional primary is on Saturday

Alaska will conduct the first top-four congressional primary in U.S. history on June 11—a special U.S. House primary election held in the wake of former Rep. Don Young's (R) death.

The special general election will be on Aug. 16, the same day as the regular primary election. The special election winner will serve until Jan. 2023, when the regular election winner—if someone different—will take office for a full two-year term.

Forty-eight candidates are on the special election ballot. The regular primary features 31 candidates, including 24 who are also running in the special election. All primary candidates for each election run on the same ballot with their affiliation listed next to their names. On the special primary ballot are:

22 candidates running as nonpartisan or undeclared
16 Republicans
6 Democrats
2 Libertarians
1 American Independent Party member
1 Alaskan Independence Party member

Here's the sample ballot from the Alaska Division of Elections:

As we wrote last month, an Alaska Survey Research poll found former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) in the top three spots. A cluster of independents, Democrats, and Republicans were tied within the margin of error for fourth.

The New York Times' Emily Cochrane wrote, "Most observers here believe that Mr. Young’s seat is likely to remain in Republican hands given the state’s conservative slant, but the new ranked-choice system, which tends to advantage candidates in the center, could upend the conventional wisdom."

Young was first elected Alaska's U.S. representative in 1973, when he defeated Emil Notti (D) in a special election. Notti is running in the 2022 special primary election. Young also ran for the House in 1972, when Nick Begich Sr. (D) defeated him. Begich Sr. is Begich III's grandfather.

Alaska voters approved the top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system via ballot measure in 2020. Maine is the only other state that uses ranked-choice voting for federal and state-level elections, though several other states have jurisdictions that use the voting system. Learn more here.

Gun policy an issue in IL-15 incumbent matchup

On June 7, U.S. Rep. Mary Miller began airing an ad criticizing U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis over a bill he cosponsored in 2019. Miller and Davis are running in Illinois’ 15th Congressional District, one of six incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries taking place this year due to redistricting.

The ad says, "Rodney Davis sided with Joe Biden, voting for red flag gun confiscation that allows the government to seize your guns. … That’s why President Trump endorsed Mary Miller for Congress. Mary is ‘A’ rated by the NRA, unlike Rodney Davis."

The NRA gave Miller an "A" rating and Davis an "A-" this year. The group has not endorsed in the primary.

The bill in question did not advance. The bill summary said it would have "authorize[d] grants for states to implement extreme risk protection order laws (also known as red flag laws). An extreme risk protection order law permits a state court to issue an order that prohibits an individual from purchasing, possessing, or receiving a firearm." The bill text said that a court could issue such an order "upon finding by a preponderance of evidence that the respondent poses an imminent, particularized, and substantial risk of unlawfully using a firearm to cause death or serious physical injury to himself or herself or to another person."

Davis’ campaign responded to the ad, in part: "Rodney is a proud gun owner, Concealed Carry License holder, NRA member, and strong supporter of the Second Amendment. He has fought Democrat gun control attempts in the past and will oppose their gun control legislation this week. Rodney has been endorsed by the NRA in every previous election. … Rodney was shot at by a crazed liberal gunman in 2017. He more than anyone in this race knows how important the Second Amendment is." Davis was at the 2017 congressional baseball practice in Alexandria, Virginia, where a gunman shot five people.

In related news, Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-N.Y.) announced his retirement last week after voicing support for stronger gun regulations.

On May 27, Jacobs said, "If an assault weapons ban bill came to the floor that would ban something like an AR-15, I would vote for it." According to The Buffalo News, Jacobs "also said he would back raising the age on some gun purchases to 21, limiting the capacity of magazines and banning the sale of military-style body armor to civilians." Jacobs currently represents New York’s 27th Congressional District, which includes the Buffalo suburbs. Jacobs knew one of the victims of the recent mass shooting at Tops supermarket.

Jacobs ended his re-election campaign on June 3, saying Republican officeholders and party officials withdrew their support after his statements. Jacobs said, “We have a problem in our country in terms of both our major parties. If you stray from a party position, you are annihilated. … For the Republicans, it became pretty apparent to me over the last week that that issue is gun control. Any gun control."

June 2, 2022

Rep. Young Kim spends $1 million on ads ahead of top-two primary

Rep. Young Kim has spent $1.3 million on ads ahead of the June 7 top-two primary in California's 40th Congressional District. Kim's ads describe challenger Greg Raths (R), a member of the Mission Viejo City Council, as being liberal. The Congressional Leadership Fund also spent $650,000 on ads opposing Raths and supporting Kim.

In California, all candidates run in the same primary regardless of affiliation, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. Democrat Asif Mahmood and Republican Nicholas Taurus are also running in the primary.

After redistricting, Kim represents 21% of the new 40th's population. The Los Angeles Times wrote that "Kim’s tilt further to the right reflects redistricting’s influence on politicians. With a shift in district boundaries, Kim’s campaign style has shifted too — vying for a constituency that is more conservative and less diverse than the residents she now represents."

Raths has criticized Kim for her support for censuring former President Donald Trump after the Capitol breach on Jan. 6, 2021, and says he'd support Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for House speaker over Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

Kim has reported raising more than $5 million. Raths has reported $136,000, including $90,000 he loaned his campaign. The Los Angeles Times wrote that Raths "said his campaign has visited 70,000 houses in the district since February. … He would also campaign while working as an Uber driver, pitching his candidacy to passengers."

Associated Press analysis: High number of 2020 Democratic primary voters participated in 2022 GOP primaries

An Associated Press analysis of early voting data published Tuesday showed that 37,144 people who voted in Georgia's May 24 Republican primaries voted in Democratic primaries in 2020. AP called this "an unusually high number of so-called crossover voters."

Georgia holds open primaries, meaning voters may vote in whichever primary they choose, regardless of their registration (voters may only participate in one party's primary in each election year).

The analysis said these voters supported incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom won primaries over challengers former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed. Kemp received 74% of the vote, avoiding a runoff by more than 280,000 votes. Raffensperger avoided a runoff by around 27,000 votes.

The Associated Press wrote that Country First, a political action committee that Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) created, conducted a mailer and text campaign encouraging Georgia Democrats to support Raffensperger.

Kinzinger, who is not seeking re-election this year, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump's 2021 impeachment. The Republican National Committee censured Kinzinger in February for his participation in the House select committee investigating the U.S. Capitol breach.

Raffensperger's campaign said that "there are people who stopped voting in Republican primaries after 2016 who are now reengaged."

AP said that "at least a portion of Georgia’s 37,000 party switchers in 2022 had been in the Republican camp before Trump took office. Roughly between 9,000 to 13,000 voted Republican in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 primaries, according to the L2 data."

Country First also weighed in on North Carolina's 11th Congressional District primary, where Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) lost re-nomination by fewer than 1,500 votes. AP wrote that of the 38,000 early and absentee votes in that primary, more than 14% (5,400) were from voters who had participated in the 2020 Democratic primary.

AP found that fewer 2020 Democratic voters participated in the GOP primary in Pennsylvania this year, attributing the gap to the competitive Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and to the state's closed primary system.

Primary rules vary by state and, in some cases, by political party. Twenty-one states have open primaries.

Another 15 states have at least one political party that runs semi-closed primaries, meaning that members of that party and registered voters who are not members of any party may participate. In 11 states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia, parties run closed primaries, meaning only registered party members may participate.

May 19, 2022

Primary results roundup

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Pennsylvania Senate: As of Thursday morning, the race remained too close to call. Mehmet Oz led with 31.2% of the vote, while David McCormick received 31.1% and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Seven candidates ran in the primary. Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Under state law, any election with a vote margin within 0.5% is subject to an automatic recount. If applicable, the secretary of state must order the recount by May 26. It must start by June 1 and be completed by June 7.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz in April. Former candidate Sean Parnell, whom Trump initially endorsed before Parnell withdrew, endorsed McCormick. On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette, who rose in recent polls. Three independent race forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

North Carolina's 11th: State Sen. Chuck Edwards defeated incumbent Madison Cawthorn and six others in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Eight candidates were on the ballot. Edwards received 33.4% of the vote to Cawthorn's 31.9%. Cawthorn is the second U.S. representative to seek re-election and lose a primary this year. Rep. David McKinley (R) lost to Rep. Alexander Mooney (R) in West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District. The two ran in the same district following redistricting. In addition, Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) remained on the ballot in Ohio's 7th District after he unofficially withdrew. Max Miller won that primary. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregon's 5th is trailing challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner as of Thursday morning and may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn on March 31. Following Cawthorn's claims in late March 2022 that Washington lawmakers hold orgies and use cocaine, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed Edwards.

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Safe or Solid Republican.

Pennsylvania Governor: State Sen. Doug Mastriano won against eight candidates. Mastriano received 44% of the vote. Former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta was second with 20%.== Mastriano campaigned on his opposition to COVID-19 measures and said he would defend election integrity. Mastriano said voting fraud was prevalent in the 2020 election. On Feb. 15, the U.S. House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach subpoenaed Mastriano, citing a November 2020 tweet and his presence outside the Capitol on the day of the breach. Trump endorsed Mastriano on May 14.

The 2022 primary featured the largest number of candidates in a Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial primary since at least 1978. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited. Forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt or Lean Democratic.

Idaho Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little defeated seven other candidates. Little received 53% of the vote to Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin's 32%.

According to the Idaho Press's Betsy Russell, a lieutenant governor hadn't challenged an incumbent governor in a primary in Idaho since 1938. Idaho is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor instead of on the same ticket.

Trump endorsed McGeachin in the primary. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund and the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Little.

Twice in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to COVID-19 measures while Little was out of state. The first banned mask mandates. The second expanded a prohibition against state entities requiring vaccination or testing. Little rescinded both orders when he returned to Idaho.

Independent forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

We've been tracking Trump's 2022 endorsements. The May 17 primary results (so far) bring Trump's primary endorsement record to 73 wins (96%) and 3 losses. Aside from McGeachin and Cawthorn, Nebraska gubernatorial endorsee Charles Herbster lost last week.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

North Carolina Senate: Ted Budd defeated 13 other candidates with 59% of the vote. Pat McCrory was second with 25%. Trump endorsed Budd, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed McCrory. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) did not run for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election as Lean Republican.

U.S. House

North Carolina's 13th: Bo Hines defeated seven other candidates with 32% of the vote. DeVan Barbour IV finished second with 23%. The current incumbent, Rep. Ted Budd, ran for the GOP Senate nomination. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

Media analysis

The Washington Examiner's Kate Scanlon wrote about Mastriano's perceived gubernatorial general election prospects:

“

Trump offered his endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday after it became clear he was the front-runner in the race. The move was seen as a hedge, as Trump’s selection for the Senate, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, was in a tight three-way race with businessman David McCormick and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who surged in polling in the final days of the race. Barnette and Mastriano ran campaigns in tandem, endorsing one another.

Some state Republicans were concerned Mastriano would hurt Republicans’ chances of winning not just the governor’s mansion but the Senate race and some congressional contests. They attempted to coalesce the field around former Rep. Lou Barletta, arguing he was better positioned to defeat Shapiro in November.^[20]

”

Politico's David Siders said Mastriano's prospects may be better than some observers think, referencing Trump's performance in the state:

“

Everything about Pennsylvania’s swing state electorate suggests Mastriano is a dead man walking.

Except for this: Lots of Republicans and Democrats alike felt exactly the same way about Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential primary, back when establishment Republicans were praying for anyone other than Trump to win the nomination and some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers were salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. The climate for Democrats in this midterm election year is no better than it was then. In fact, it’s worse. And Pennsylvania is a swing state for a reason. Trump only lost Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020. He won the state four years earlier.^[20]

”

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser described what he saw as both the strength and limitation of Trump's influence in Tuesday's primaries:

“

The [Senate primary in Pennsylvania] is proving another test of Trump's immense sway over the GOP. Sixteen months removed from the White House, the former president remains the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party as he plays a kingmaker’s role in this year’s primaries and repeatedly flirts with another presidential run in 2024.

Trump was a winner in Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial primary, as state Sen. Doug Mastriano bested a crowded field of contenders. Mastriano was already the polling front-runner when the former president endorsed him on Saturday. …

Trump was also a big winner in North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary – in another crucial race in a general election battleground where the GOP’s defending an open seat. …

Trump’s clout couldn’t pull controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorne over the top in the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, however. Even with Trump's backing in the final days heading into the primary, Cawthorne – who’s made plenty of enemies in the GOP in his short year and a half on Capitol Hill – came up short to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who enjoyed the backing of many of the party’s establishment.

In Idaho, far-right Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin handily lost her bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little. Trump endorsed McGeachin last autumn, but did little to actively support her.^[20]

”

First poll released for special U.S. House top-four primary in Alaska

Alaska Survey Research published the first poll we've seen of Alaska's top-four U.S. House special primary. The poll included 12 of the 48 candidates by name.

Affiliation was not included in the poll, but we've added each candidate's affiliation below.

Palin (R) 19%
Begich (R) 16%
Gross (I) 13%
Claus (I) 6%
Peltola (D) 5%
Constant (D) 5%
Sweeney (R) 4%
Revak (R) 4%
Lowenfels (I) 3%
Wool (D) 2%
Halcro (I) 2%
Coghill (R) 2%
Other 4%
Undecided 16%

The poll's margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

Former Governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich III (R), and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate Al Gross (I) top the results. A cluster of candidates are within the margin of error for fourth place, including North Pole City Councilmember Santa Claus (I), former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D), Anchorage Assemblymember Christopher Constant (D), former Assistant Secretary of the Interior Tara Sweeney (R), and state Sen. Josh Revak (R).

Sweeney and Revak co-chaired former Rep. Don Young's (R) statewide re-election campaign. Young died in March.

The special primary is June 11, and the special general election is Aug. 16. The regularly scheduled primary will also be held Aug. 16.

In addition to top-four primaries, Alaska will use ranked-choice voting for both general elections.

Alaska Survey Research tested four general election scenarios. Each included Begich, Gross, and Palin, with someone different in the fourth spot. In each RCV simulation, Begich and Gross were left standing in the 3rd round, with Begich taking a majority.

May 12, 2022

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mooney defeats McKinley, Pillen defeats Herbster

West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Alex Mooney defeated Rep. David McKinley and three others. Based on unofficial returns, Mooney received 54% of the vote and McKinley received 36%.

The incumbents ran against one another because the state lost a congressional district following the 2020 census. McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District and Mooney represents 34%.

Mooney's backers included former President Donald Trump (R) and the House Freedom Fund. Gov. Jim Justice (R) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) were among McKinley's supporters. Throughout the primary, Mooney criticized McKinley's vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. McKinley criticized Mooney for previously holding office in Maryland and running unsuccessful campaigns in both Maryland and New Hampshire.

Three independent race forecasters consider the general as Solid or Safe Republican.

Nebraska Governor: University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen defeated Charles Herbster, state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, and six others. Pillen received 34% of the vote to Herbster's 30% and Lindstrom's 26%.

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) endorsed Pillen, while Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) backed Herbster. Herbster also had an endorsement from Trump. The Nebraska Farm Bureau endorsed Pillen.

Herbster chaired Trump's Agriculture and Rural Advisory Committee. As we wrote previously, the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford reported last month that eight women, including state Sen. Julie Slama (R), had accused Herbster of sexual misconduct occurring between 2017 and 2022. Herbster denied the allegations and said they were "part of a greater scheme calculated to try and defeat [his] candidacy." At a May 1 rally, Trump said Herbster was "innocent of these despicable charges."

Pillen said he had a record of resisting critical race theory, while Herbster said Pillen didn't do enough to oppose it. The Nebraska Examiner wrote that "Herbster pointed to Pillen’s 2018 vote, as a University of Nebraska regent, in support of hiring a leader to create a new Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. … Pillen’s campaign said that he was the first elected university regent in the U.S. to stand up against critical race theory and that he is a recognized leader in higher ed on the issue."

Ricketts is term-limited. Major independent observers rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican. Republicans have had trifecta control of Nebraska state government since 1999.

Nebraska State Board of Education District 7: Elizabeth Tegtmeier and incumbent Robin Stevens advanced from the top-two primary. Tegtmeier received 62% of the vote to Stevens' 20%. The third candidate, Pat Moore, received 17%. The race has featured conflict around proposed health education standards the board considered and then voted to pause in 2021. The election is nonpartisan, though the candidates are affiliated with the Republican Party.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. House:

McKinley is the first U.S. House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle. In Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) resigned on March 31 after being found guilty in a federal campaign finance investigation, but his name remained on the ballot. State Sen. Mike Flood (R) won that race.

State executives:

Nebraska held several primaries for state executive offices. District 4 Public Service Commissioner Rod Johnson (R) lost to Eric Kamler (R).

There are three races featuring incumbents that remain too close to call. In one of those races, the Republican incumbent is trailing a challenger as of Thursday morning: Challenger Kevin Stocker (R) has a 3-percentage-point lead over Public Service Commissioner Mary Ridder (R) in District 5.

State legislature:

All eight Republican incumbents seeking re-election to the Nebraska Senate (the state's only legislative chamber) will advance to the general election.

Since 2010, only one incumbent Nebraska state senator has lost in a contested primary: Sen. Nicole Fox (R) in 2016. Ricketts appointed Fox to the seat in 2015 after the Democratic incumbent resigned.

In West Virginia, one incumbent is confirmed to have lost: Incumbent George Miller (R) defeated incumbent Ken Reed (R) in the state House. There are 17 Republican primaries featuring incumbents—16 in the House and one in the Senate—that remain too close to call.

In 2020, 10 GOP state legislators in West Virginia lost primaries. Four lost in 2018.

The following table shows data from 15 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from four states—Indiana, Nebraska, Texas, and West Virginia—where state legislative primaries have taken place.

Media analysis

The Wall Street Journal's Joshua Jamerson said the incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary in West Virginia's 2nd tested Republicans' sentiment on compromise:

“

The West Virginia race offers a glimpse at GOP sentiment toward the infrastructure law and the broader idea of compromising with Democrats. An aide to McKinley, before the results came in, said Mr. Mooney’s criticisms have made traction with voters, causing Mr. McKinley to explain his vote and tout the money being steered toward West Virginia.^[20]

”

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich said that Herbster's loss doesn't indicate a decrease in Trump's influence:

“

[Nebraska's Republican gubernatorial primary] had been seen as a proxy war between Trump and the establishment and moderate wings of the GOP. And thanks to Pillen’s win, the next governor of Nebraska will likely[1] be someone with deep ties to the state’s political and economic establishment who has accepted President Biden’s election, rather than someone who believes that China orchestrated the coronavirus pandemic and spent Jan. 6, 2021, in the Trump war room. …

But at the same time, this loss isn’t evidence that Trump’s influence with the Republican base is slipping. Herbster was far from a perfect candidate … Ultimately, Trump’s endorsement wasn’t powerful enough to drag Herbster to victory, but his endorsement remains an asset in any Republican primary. Just ask Rep. Alex Mooney, who decisively won his primary last night in West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.^[20]

”

May 5, 2022

May 3 primary results roundup

Ohio and Indiana held primary elections on Tuesday. Indiana's ballot included state legislative elections, while Ohio's did not, as redistricting is still underway. Below, you'll find results from marquee GOP primaries, takeaways, and info on incumbents who lost primaries.

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio

Ohio U.S. Senate: J.D. Vance won Ohio's U.S. Senate primary with 32% of the vote. Josh Mandel was second with 24%, and Matt Dolan finished third with 23%. Four other candidates ran.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance in mid-April. Independent polling available before that, from late February and early March, showed Mandel and Mike Gibbons leading. Four of the five candidates with the most votes—except Dolan—campaigned on connections to and support for Trump.

Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Indiana's 9th: In the state's only open House district, Erin Houchin defeated eight other candidates with 37% of the vote. Mike Sodrel was second with 26%. Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) didn't seek re-election. Three forecasters rate the district Safe or Solid Republican.
Ohio's 9th: J.R. Majewski won with 36% of the vote. Craig Riedel was second with 31%. Incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) was first elected in 1982 and is seeking re-election. This is a Toss-up district in race ratings.
Ohio's 13th: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert defeated six other candidates with 29% of the vote. Gregory Wheeler was second with 23%. Gilbert worked on Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is running for U.S. Senate. This is a Toss-up or Tilt Republican district in ratings.

State executive

Ohio Governor: Incumbent Mike DeWine won with 48%. Jim Renacci was second with 28%. DeWine's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an issue in the race. Renacci said DeWine overreacted with restrictions, while DeWine said he acted in the best interest of Ohioans.
Ohio Secretary of State: Incumbent Frank LaRose defeated John Adams 65% to 35%.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07) was the only Republican congressional incumbent to (technically) lose in Tuesday's primaries. Gibbs announced on April 6 that he wasn't running for re-election. But because Gibbs already qualified, he remained on the primary ballot.

In Indiana, six GOP state legislators—five representatives and one senator—lost primaries.

Three Republican incumbents—one in the Indiana Senate and two in the Indiana House—were defeated in incumbent-on-incumbent primaries resulting from redistricting.
Three Republican incumbents in the state House lost to non-incumbent challengers.

In 2020, one Indiana GOP legislator—a state representative—lost in a primary. In 2018, two GOP incumbents—a state senator and a representative—lost primaries.

The following shows data from 14 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from two states—Texas and Indiana—where state legislative elections have taken place.

Media analysis

Media analysis following the May 3 GOP primaries has largely focused on Trump's influence in Ohio. We present a few perspectives on that below, in addition to a takeaway from Indiana's state legislative races.

Politico's David Siders and Adam Wren said Vance's victory was a victory for Trump and that Dolan's performance did not suggest good prospects for non-Trump-aligned candidates in 2024:

“

People in Trump’s orbit are preparing for his dominion over the GOP to take a hit in primaries scheduled for later this month. The candidates he’s supporting for governor in Georgia and Idaho are both running far behind more establishment-minded incumbents, and several other Trump-endorsed candidates are in toss-up races. Trump isn’t likely to win them all.

But J.D. Vance’s victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Trump. Unlike in the Texas primaries, where the former president backed a raft of successful Republicans — but mostly made safe choices — Trump took a risk on Vance. … With Vance, Mandel, Timken and Gibbons clobbering each other over who was the Trumpiest, Dolan, who distanced himself from Trump, appeared to have space open to him with a non-MAGA hardliner crowd. … But he didn’t win. Or even come close. …

Dolan isn’t a pure test of the anti-Trump Republican. He was a supporter of Trump, after all, voting twice for the former president. But it’s the closest thing we’ve seen this election cycle to a different prototype for 2024 — and it ended poorly for the candidate tied least tightly to Trump.^[20]

”

CNN said that Ohio's Senate primary result attests to Trump's endorsement power in open primaries:

“

Vance's victory underscored the former President's role as the kingmaker in the Republican Party. Though it's not clear whether Trump will succeed in his effort to oust incumbent Republicans he believes have wronged him, Ohio's results demonstrated that in open-seat races, his endorsement might be the most important factor.^[20]

”

ABC News' Brittany Shepherd said DeWine's win was slightly unfavorable for Trump:

“

Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who rose in popularity after imposing more aggressive coronavirus restrictions in his state, won the Republican bid for reelection and defeated Trump-affiliated candidate Jim Renacci (who was endorsed by Trump in 2018, when Renacci ran and lost a Senate bid.) DeWine's win means a slight loss for the former president, who suggested DeWine needed to be primaried for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Even though Trump steered clear of a formal endorsement, his apparent disdain for the incumbent governor is no secret and his opponents differed little from Trump in campaign talking points, which calls into question the lasting power of Trump's influence.^[20]

”

The Associated Press' Tom Davies and Casey Smith said Indiana state legislative candidates frustrated over COVID-19 restrictions and other issues performed poorly on Tuesday:

“

Frustrated Indiana conservatives fell short in most primary races Tuesday in their drive to push the Republican-controlled state Legislature further to the right, and two of the movement’s leaders lost their reelection bids.

The roughly two dozen so-called liberty candidates saw only a few victories in Republican legislative races across the state, with one defeating a 10-term incumbent in northern Indiana and two others winning nominations for GOP-leaning open seats.

A few races remained uncalled late Tuesday, but more than 10 incumbent lawmakers overcame challenges from candidates who argued that the Legislature hasn’t been aggressive enough in attempting to ban abortion, enhancing gun rights and overturning COVID-19 restrictions that were ordered by Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.^[20]

”

McKinley ad features Manchin support in WV-02

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) appeared in an ad defending Rep. David McKinley (R) against criticisms from Rep. Alex Mooney (R). McKinley and Mooney are running in the GOP primary for the state's redrawn 2nd Congressional District.

Manchin said, "For Alex Mooney and his out-of-state supporters to suggest David McKinley supported Build Back Better is an outright lie. David McKinley has always opposed reckless spending because it doesn't make sense for West Virginia."

Mooney said Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act "paved the way for Democrats to pass President Biden's socialist Build Back Better plan." McKinley was one of 13 Republican House members who voted for the infrastructure bill.

Manchin said in December that he would not support the Build Back Better Act.

West Virginia lost a congressional district after the 2020 census. According to Daily Kos data, McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District's population and Mooney currently represents 34%.

Along with Manchin, McKinley's supporters include Gov. Jim Justice (R), former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R), and the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce. Mooney's endorsers include former President Trump, the House Freedom Fund, and Club for Growth PAC.

(In Ohio's U.S. Senate primary, Trump and the Club for Growth backed different candidates—the Club endorsed Mandel, whereas Trump backed Vance.)

West Virginia's primaries are on May 10.

April 28, 2022

Rep. Joe Wilson endorses Katie Arrington in SC-01 Republican primary

On April 21, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) endorsed Katie Arrington in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary. Arrington and Lynz Piper-Loomis are challenging incumbent Nancy Mace for the Republican nomination.

Wilson said, "As murderers and enemies of freedom grow emboldened by the feeble leadership of the Biden Administration, Washington needs more people who understand the significant implications of a weak America on the world stage." Mace’s campaign said, "Joe Wilson is the reason we need term limits in Congress. Conservative groups rate him the most liberal Republican Congressman from South Carolina. Of course he endorses the most liberal Republican in the primary, who voted for the largest tax increase in SC history."

According to The Hill, the campaign was referring to "a bill the state House passed in 2017, when Arrington was a state lawmaker, that proposed a motor fuel user fee."

Arrington defeated incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford 50.6%-46.5% in the 1st District’s 2018 Republican primary. Arrington lost the general election to Joe Cunningham (D) 50.6%-49.2%. Mace defeated Cunningham in 2020 50.6%-49.3%.

Arrington has criticized Mace for critical comments she made about former President Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach and for her position on marijuana (Mace has sponsored legislation to federally decriminalize marijuana). Mace said of Arrington’s 2018 election loss: "If you want to lose this seat once again in the midterm election cycle to Democrats, then my opponent is more than qualified to do just that."

Trump endorsed Arrington in February. Mace received endorsements from former Trump administration officials Nikki Haley (R), a former South Carolina governor, and Mick Mulvaney (R), a former U.S. representative from the state.

The primary is on June 14. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held June 28.

No candidates receive GOP endorsement in MN-01 primary

After seven rounds of voting on April 23 and 24th, none of the candidates running in the Republican primary in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District received enough delegate votes to win the 1st District GOP’s endorsement.

The Post Bulletin’s Matthew Stolle wrote that winning the endorsement for the regular election "would have given the winner bragging rights and prominence as the special election approaches."

A candidate needed to receive support from at least 60% of the delegates in order to receive the endorsement. State Rep. Jeremy Munson came the closest with 55% after leading the field in all seven rounds. Brad Finstad, a former state representative and U.S. Department of Agriculture official in the Trump Administration, came in second with 35%.

During the convention, Munson also announced an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Paul joins other members of Congress, including Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Freedom Caucus chairman Scott Perry (R-Pa.), in supporting Munson.

Finstad has endorsements from members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation, including Reps. Michelle Fischbach (R) and Pete Stauber (R). Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), the Republican leader of the House Committee on Agriculture, also endorsed Finstad.

Other candidates running in the primary with past or present experience in politics include former Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s (R) wife and former state GOP chairwoman, Jennifer Carnahan, and state Rep. Nels Pierson.

The 1st District also has an upcoming special Republican primary using the old district lines to fill the remainder of Rep. Jim Hagedorn's (R) term. Hagedorn died on Feb. 17. Ten candidates are running in the special Republican primary on May 24. The special general election is on Aug. 9.

The regular primary election is also on Aug. 9. The filing deadline for the regular election is May 31.

April 21, 2022

April endorsements and spending in WV-02

In West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Reps. David McKinley and Alexander Mooney are running in the May 10 Republican primary as a result of redistricting. Here's a rundown of endorsements and satellite spending from this month:

On April 11, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce endorsed McKinley. On April 20, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) endorsed McKinley.
The American Conservative Union, which organizes the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), endorsed Mooney on April 12 and Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) endorsed Mooney on April 13.
On April 12, Club for Growth announced that Club for Growth Action and School Freedom Fund spent $1.1 million on three ads supporting Mooney.
Two other satellite groups purchased ads in the district earlier this month. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce placed a $160,000 ad buy telling voters to call and thank McKinley for his plan to lower gas prices, while Defending Main Street bought $250,000 in ads opposing Mooney.

McKinley’s other endorsers include Gov. Jim Justice (R) and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang (who is now an independent). Trump endorsed Mooney in November.

Newly available finance reports from Jan. 1, 2021, through March 31, 2022, show that Mooney had spent $4.5 million and McKinley had spent $1.3 million.

According to the Parkersburg News and Sentinel, the new 2nd District is a combination of parts of the old 1st and 2nd districts. The new district contains eight counties Mooney represents and 19 of 20 counties McKinley represents. The first map below shows the old 2nd District and the second map shows the new 2nd.

West Virginia Congressional Districts
until January 2, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.

West Virginia Congressional Districts
starting January 3, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.

McKinley was elected in 2010, and Mooney was elected in 2014. Race forecasting outlets view West Virginia's new 2nd District as Safe Republican. This is one of five districts with incumbents challenging one another in primaries this year.

Update: Tennessee GOP removes three candidates from TN-05 ballot

The Tennessee Republican Party voted to remove Baxter Lee, Morgan Ortagus, and Robby Starbuck from the ballot in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District. The party disqualified the candidates for not meeting requirements in its bylaws, which include having voted in three of the last four statewide GOP primaries and participating in state or local Republican parties. As we wrote last week, the state executive committee voted April 9 to remove the candidates, and candidates were able to challenge the vote.

April 14, 2022

Executive committee removes four candidates from TN-05 primary

The Tennessee Star reported that the Tennessee Republican Party State Executive Committee voted on April 9 to remove Baxter Lee, Morgan Ortagus, Stewart Parks, and Robby Starbuck from the 5th Congressional District ballot. The candidates may challenge the committee's ruling and request a restoration vote no later than April 21.

The Tennessee Star said that the party’s bylaws allow the committee to remove candidates if they "were not considered active members in the TNGOP, local party, or recognized affiliate, did not vote in three of the last four statewide Republican primaries, or in races where there is a Republican incumbent, did not submit a filing fee."

The Associated Press reported that challenges against Ortagus, Lee, and Starbuck concerned their voting records. Ortagus said in a statement, "I respect the rules and the process outlined by TNGOP, and I’m a bona fide Republican by their standards."

Former President Trump endorsed Ortagus in January. Ortagus moved from Washington, D.C., to Nashville in 2021.

The primary is set for Aug. 4. At least seven candidates made the ballot so far, including former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles.

This vote was separate from the legislation and challenge we wrote about last week. SB2616 requires primary candidates for Congress to meet residency requirements for state legislators contained in the state constitution. The bill became law on April 13 without the governor's signature. Because it didn't become law before the April 7 filing deadline, its requirements don't apply to this year's congressional primaries. Three residents filed a lawsuit challenging the residency requirement.

April 7, 2022

48 candidates file for special U.S. House election in Alaska

Forty-eight candidates filed for the special election for Alaska's at-large congressional district. The primary includes 16 Republicans, six Democrats, two Libertarians, and 24 nonpartisan, undeclared, or otherwise affiliated candidates.

Among the candidates are former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R), who former President Donald Trump endorsed; Emil Notti (D), who ran against former incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) in the 1973 special election that Young won; Young's former re-election campaign co-chair Tara Sweeney (R); state Sen. Josh Revak (R); state Rep. Adam Wool (D); and North Pole, Alaska, City Council member Santa Claus (formerly Thomas O'Connor), who is undeclared and describes himself as a Democratic socialist.

All will appear on the June 11 primary ballot, with the top four finishers advancing to the Aug. 16 general election. This will be the first congressional election using the state's new voting system with top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections.

Young died last month. The special election winner will serve the rest of Young's term until Jan. 3, 2023. Candidates may file for both the special and regular elections. The filing deadline for the regular election is June 1. The regular top-four primary will be held Aug. 16, the same day as the ranked-choice voting special general election.

Upton retiring, leaving one incumbent in MI-04

Rep. Fred Upton (R) announced Tuesday he won't seek re-election. This leaves Rep. Bill Huizenga as the only incumbent running in Michigan's 4th Congressional District GOP primary. As we wrote recently, Trump endorsed Huizenga. Upton was one of 10 Republican U.S. House members who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

Trump to rally for Cawthorn, while Tillis and others endorse challenger

Former President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in North Carolina on Saturday featuring 11th Congressional District incumbent Rep. Madison Cawthorn and other GOP candidates. Republicans Sen. Thom Tillis, state House Speaker Tim Moore, and state Senate leader Phil Berger recently backed state Sen. Chuck Edwards in the 11th District GOP primary.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn in May 2021. Tillis said last Thursday, "Unfortunately, Madison Cawthorn has fallen well short of the most basic standards western North Carolina expects from their representatives, and voters now have several well-qualified candidates to choose from who would be a significant improvement. I believe Chuck Edwards is the best choice."

Last Wednesday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) met with Cawthorn to discuss a recent podcast interview in which Cawthorn said he'd been invited to an orgy in Washington and observed people doing cocaine. McCarthy said he told Cawthorn that "he's lost my trust, and he's going to have to earn it back. ... He's got a lot of members upset. You can't just make statements out there."

Cawthorn said in a statement last Friday,

“

Western North Carolina, you sent me to Washington to change the culture. If you want Washington to operate without accountability, send someone else. If you want someone who will throw the entire DC swamp into a meltdown because I call out corruption — send me back.

The left and the media want to use my words to divide the GOP. They are terrified of Republicans taking back the House and seeing Leader McCarthy become Speaker McCarthy. Their efforts to divide us will fail.^[20]

”

Cawthorn faces seven challengers in the May 17 primary. Cawthorn was first elected in 2020.

Tennessee bill that would prevent Trump-endorsed candidate from running faces court challenge

The Tennessee General Assembly passed a bill last week that would disqualify a Trump-endorsed U.S. House candidate from running in the Republican primary. The bill has been challenged in U.S. district court.

According to the Nashville Tennessean's Melissa Brown, SB2616 "implicitly targeted the candidacy of [former U.S. Department of State spokeswoman] Morgan Ortagus" for Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District. Trump endorsed Ortagus in January.

The bill says primary candidates for Congress would have to meet residency requirements for state legislators contained in the state constitution. That means a candidate would need to have been a Tennessee resident for at least three years and a resident of the relevant district for at least one year before the election. Ortagus moved to Nashville from Washington, D.C., in 2021.

State Sen. Frank Niceley (R), who sponsored the bill in the Senate, said that people who don't meet the residency requirements could still run as independent or minor party candidates.

Ortagus said, "No one questioned my residency when I served our country in the intelligence community, the Trump Administration, nor in the U.S. Navy Reserves, and President Trump certainly didn't question my residency when he endorsed me for this seat."

According to University of Iowa College of Law professor Derek Muller, "[W]hile there’s a partisan valence to this specific situation, the position has attracted wide bipartisan support in Tennessee. There is nearly unanimous support to stop 'carpetbaggers' from getting elected to Congress."

The Senate passed the bill 31-1 on Feb. 28. Brown said of the voter against the bill, "[Sen. Todd Gardenhire (R)] didn't object to the details of the bill but said he wouldn't support the effort in the middle of an ongoing campaign season." The House passed the bill 70-18 on March 28, with 12 Republicans and six Democrats voting against it.

The bill was sent to Gov. Bill Lee (R) on April 1. As of the morning of April 7, he hadn't taken action on it. The filing deadline for the primary is April 7. We'll follow up in a future issue on the outcome.

On March 31, three 5th District residents who say they plan to vote in the Republican primary filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee, asking the court to declare the bill unconstitutional and to ensure Ortagus remains on the ballot.

The plaintiffs' attorney said, "The legislature’s last minute attempt to restrict President Trump’s endorsed candidate from running for Congress clearly violates the US Constitution and Supreme Court precedent."

Tennessee's primaries are set for Aug. 4.

March 31, 2022

VIEWPAC endorses Jennifer Strahan against Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14

Value in Electing Women (VIEW) PAC endorsed Jennifer Strahan in Georgia's 14th Congressional District. Strahan faces Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and five others in the Republican primary. Roll Call reported that this is the first time the PAC has endorsed a primary challenger to an incumbent member of Congress.

VIEWPAC's website says it was founded in 1997 "to help elect qualified, viable Republican women to Congress."

Strahan is CEO of a healthcare advisory firm. She said in a campaign ad, "Out-of-control inflation, a crisis at the border, and 13 flag-draped caskets are a harsh reminder that this is not the time for unserious politicians who just want to hear themselves talk."

Greene, who used to own a CrossFit gym, was first elected in 2020. She said in a September campaign ad, "In 2022, I'm going to blow away the Democrats' socialist agenda," saying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) tried to fund the Green New Deal in the Build Back Better budget. The ad depicts Greene blowing up a car with the word "Socialism" on it with a 50-caliber rifle.

VIEWPAC hasn't reported any independent expenditures in Georgia's 14th to the Federal Election Commission. Of the $56,000 in independent expenditures published on the FEC website as of Tuesday, $36,000 opposed and $20,000 supported Greene.

Right Women PAC is one of the groups supporting Greene. The group's website says there is "a desperate need in the US House of Representatives for bold, unflinching conservative women. … No other PAC focuses exclusively on electing solidly conservative women."

Redistricting placed a portion of Cobb County in the 14th District. The Associated Press wrote that the county is "a core part of the metropolitan area and a onetime GOP stronghold that shifted steadily to the left during the Trump era."

The primary is scheduled for May 24.

More than 100 House Republicans participate in fundraiser for challenger to Liz Cheney

On Wednesday, more than 100 Republican U.S. House members participated in a fundraiser for Harriet Hageman, who is challenging Rep. Liz Cheney (R) in the August 16 primary for Wyoming's At-large Congressional District.

House Republicans last May removed Cheney as Republican Conference chairwoman with a voice vote following her vote to impeach President Donald Trump in January 2021 and her public criticisms of Trump's statements on the 2020 election.

Fundraiser participants included Rep. Elise Stefanik, who replaced Cheney as Republican Conference chair, and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Cheney’s representative Jeremy Adler said, "A leader with honor would be rejecting – not protecting – the pro-Putin, anti-Semitic, white nationalist members of the party, instead of fighting against Liz Cheney for telling the truth."

McCarthy told CNN that his endorsement of Hageman was a special case and that he supported the re-election campaigns of other Republicans who voted to impeach Trump.

Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach. Of the seven who are running or may run for re-election, Trump has endorsed challengers to six.

U.S. Rep. Fortenberry resigns, exiting primary and triggering special election

On Saturday, U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) announced his resignation from the House, effective today. Last week, a jury found Fortenberry guilty of one count of scheming to falsify and conceal material facts and two counts of making false statements to federal investigators.

Fortenberry said he would appeal the verdict. He said in a letter to supporters, "Due to the difficulties of my current circumstances, I can no longer effectively serve."

Fortenberry’s resignation leaves four candidates running in the Republican primary for Nebraska's 1st Congressional District: Mike Flood, Curtis Huffman, John Glen Weaver, and Thireena Yuki Connely. Fortenberry's name will still appear on the ballot since the deadline to withdraw has passed. The primary is May 10.

Aside from Fortenberry, Flood has received the most media attention. Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) endorsed Flood.

A special election must be held within 90 days of Fortenberry leaving office, according to state law. Ricketts has yet to announce a date for the special election. Each major party's executive committee will pick its nominee for the special election, meaning there won't be a special primary. The special election winner will serve the remainder of Fortenberry's term, ending Jan. 3.

March 24, 2022

Special primary to finish Don Young's term will be the first congressional top-four primary

Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), the longest-serving Republican representative in U.S. history, died on March 18.

The special primary on June 11 to complete the remainder of Young's term will be the first congressional primary using the state's new top-four primary system. Every candidate will appear on the same primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation. The top four candidates will advance to the general election, in which voters can rank their preferences rather than voting for a single candidate.

Voters approved the new system via ballot measure in 2020. Click here for more details.

The special primary election will be held by mail. The special general election will take place alongside the regular primary election on Aug. 16.

April 1 is the filing deadline for the special primary. At least two candidates have said they'll run in the special election: Nick Begich (R) and Christopher Constant (D). Both are also running in the regularly scheduled election.

We've tracked five Republicans, one Democrat, and one independent running in the regular primary so far.

Trump endorses Huizenga in MI-04, Carra drops out

On March 11, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Rep. Bill Huizenga in the Republican primary for Michigan's 4th Congressional District. Huizenga, who has represented Michigan's 2nd Congressional District since 2011, announced he would run for re-election in the 4th District following redistricting.

The Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission adopted a new congressional map in December that placed Huizenga in the 4th District alongside Rep. Fred Upton (R). Upton has represented Michigan's 6th Congressional District since 1993 and has not announced whether he'll seek re-election.

On March 15, state Rep. Steve Carra (R) ended his candidacy in the 4th District primary. Carra said, "Now that Bill Huizenga has President Trump’s and my support in the newly formed 4th Congressional district, he has a clear path to victory." Carra initially planned to challenge Upton in the 6th District, saying Upton "is seen as a moderate. … He is anti-Second Amendment; he voted for amnesty, he voted to impeach (former President Donald) Trump." In September, Trump endorsed Carra in the 6th. Carra announced earlier this year he'd run in the 4th District.

Upton was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump (Huizenga did not).

Upton released an ad in February in which he said, "I'm not afraid to take on anyone when they're wrong and work with anyone when they're right. … If you want a rubber stamp as your congressman, I'm the wrong guy." In a statement, Upton said, "Some believe the heart, soul and values of the Republican Party are defined by Donald Trump, but I believe our values are better defined by those espoused by Ronald Reagan. … Peace through strength, fiscal responsibility, dignity and honor."

Huizenga said he'd worked with Trump on law enforcement, energy, and border issues and that he is "honored to have President Trump’s support in this fight."

The filing deadline is set for April 19 and the primary for Aug. 2.

March 17, 2022

U.S. Rep. Tom Rice criticizes former President Trump after Trump hosts rally for primary opponent

U.S. Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.) criticized former President Donald Trump (R) on March 12 after Trump hosted a rally supporting Russell Fry. Fry is one of 11 challengers to Rice in South Carolina's 7th Congressional District Republican primary.

Rice was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the U.S. Capitol breach on January 6, 2021. Of the seven who are running or may run for re-election, Trump has endorsed challengers to six.

Rice said, "Trump is here because, like no one else I've ever met, he is consumed by spite. I took one vote he didn’t like and now he’s chosen to support a yes man candidate who has and will bow to anything he says, no matter what. … If you want a Congressman who cowers to no man, who votes for what is right, even when it's hard, and who has fought like hell for the Grand Strand and Pee Dee, then I hope to earn your vote."

At the rally, Trump said, "Right here in the 7th Congressional District, Tom Rice, a disaster. He's respected by no one, he's laughed at in Washington, he was never thought highly of in Washington. And he was just censured by your great South Carolina GOP. Tom Rice joined the Democrats' deranged impeachment witch hunt … it's all turned out to be a hoax."

Fry thanked Trump in a tweet and said, "Conservatives are ready to replace Tom Rice and send a committed conservative to Washington. June 14 comes soon! It’s time to #FrytheRice"

Rice was first elected in 2012. Fry is a member of the South Carolina House of Representatives and was first elected in a 2015 special election.

Primary candidates endorse in TX-28 runoff

Cassy Garcia picked up endorsements from four of the five unsuccessful candidates in the Texas 28th Congressional District primary. Garcia faces Sandra Whitten in the May 24 runoff.

Garcia received 23.5% of the primary vote to Whitten's 18%.

Garcia was a deputy state director for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Whitten is a preschool director and was the district's Republican nominee in 2020, running unopposed in that year's primary. Whitten lost to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) 39% to 58%.

Cruz spent $137,000 from his campaign fund in independent expenditures supporting Garcia ahead of the March 1 primary.

Cuellar and 2020 Democratic challenger Jessica Cisneros are also in a primary runoff on May 24. The Cook Political Report and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the general election from Lean Democratic to Toss-up following the primary.

Former Minnesota Party chair announces campaign for late husband's district

On Monday, former Minnesota Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan announced her GOP primary bid for the special election in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. The previous incumbent and Carnahan's husband, Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R), died of cancer on Feb. 17. Carnahan served as Minnesota Republican Party chair from 2017 to 2021. Carnahan resigned in August after an associate and GOP donor, Anton Lazzaro, was indicted on federal sex trafficking charges. Four former state party executive directors also said Carnahan fostered a toxic work environment.

Carnahan said, "Strong leaders frequently end up with enemies. You could pick almost any Member out of the Congressional register and come up with similar attacks." Carnahan said she condemned Lazzaro after the accusations were made public and that Lazzaro also donated to other Republicans. "This is clearly a double standard. It's time to move on."

Former Minnesota Republican Party Deputy Chair Michael Brodkorb said, "I think [Carnahan] has a lot of unresolved political baggage that will put the congressional district in play for the Democrats."

The primary field includes at least nine other candidates.

Among them is Brad Finstad, a former state representative who served as director for USDA Rural Development in Minnesota during the Trump administration. U.S. Rep. GT Thompson (R-Pa.) endorsed Finstad. Thompson is the Republican leader on the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, on which Hagedorn previously served.

Also running is state Rep. Jeremy Munson, co-founder of the New House Republican Caucus, a group of four state House members who split from the Republican caucus in 2019 after disagreements with party leadership. All four caucus members called on Carnahan to resign as party chair in August. U.S. Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), the House Freedom Caucus chair, endorsed Munson.

Recent elections in the district have been close. Current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who represented the district from 2007 to 2019, defeated Hagedorn in 2016 50.3% to 49.6%. In 2018, Hagedorn defeated Democrat Dan Feehan 50.1% to 49.7%. Hagedorn defeated Feehan again 48.6% to 45.5% in 2020.

The special primary is scheduled for May 24. The special general election will be Aug. 9. A regular election for the district takes place Nov. 8.

Trump-endorsed primary voting bill dies in Wyoming House

A bill Trump endorsed that would have changed when voters could switch their party affiliation before a primary died in the Wyoming House of Representatives last week.

Politico’s Meridith McGraw wrote that "Trump and his allies [had] been privately lobbying Wyoming lawmakers to change the state’s election laws as part of an effort to unseat Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)." Trump publicly endorsed the bill, saying, "This critically important bill ensures that the voters in each party will separately choose their nominees for the General Election, which is how it should be!"

Currently, Wyoming primary voters can switch their party affiliation on the same day as the state's primary elections. SF0097 would have changed the deadline to before the start of the candidate filing period, which falls in May this year. The primary is scheduled for Aug. 16.

The Hill's Reid Wilson reported, "Supporters of the bill said making the change would prevent Democrats or independent voters from casting a ballot in the Republican primary — presumably, voters who would be more likely to favor Cheney, who voted to impeach Trump and who sits on the House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol."

Trump endorsed Harriet Hageman in the primary in September, calling Cheney a "warmonger and disloyal Republican” and “the Democrats [sic] number one provider of sound bites."

The Wyoming Senate passed the bill 18-12 on Feb. 25. On March 7, the House Appropriations Committee recommended that the bill not pass. According to the Casper Star-Tribune’s Victoria Eavis, the House adjourned without considering the bill by the March 8 deadline. Wyoming’s 2022 legislative session ended on March 11. The GOP has a 28-2 majority in the state Senate and a 51-7 majority in the House.

According to the Associated Press’ Mead Gruver, "Similar measures have failed in the Wyoming Legislature in recent years amid concern that narrowing the dates in the law could dampen turnout."

March 3, 2022

Texas results roundup

Texas held the nation's first midterm primaries on Tuesday. Races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote are headed to May 24 runoffs. Here's a roundup of results from marquee Republican primaries, current as of Thursday morning.

The big stories: Taylor suspends campaign, Paxton and Bush go to runoff

Texas' 3rd Congressional District: Incumbent Van Taylor and Keith Self advanced to a runoff with 48.7% and 26.5%, respectively. Taylor suspended his campaign on Wednesday, saying, "About a year ago, I made a horrible mistake that has caused deep hurt and pain among those I love most in this world. … I had an affair, it was wrong, and it was the greatest failure of my life."

The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek said that "no other race in Texas this year seems to more reflect the debate within the GOP over the fallout from Jan. 6." Taylor was one of two House Republicans from Texas—and 35 House Republicans nationwide—who voted last May to establish a commission to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol breach. Self, a former Collin County judge, criticized Taylor's vote. Five candidates ran in the primary.

Attorney General: Incumbent Ken Paxton and state Land Commissioner George P. Bush advanced to a runoff with 42.7% and 22.8%, respectively. Former state supreme court Justice Eva Guzman received 17.5% and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, 17%.

Svitek and the Tribune's James Barragán wrote during the primary, "Gohmert and Paxton are … vying for the same conservative voters who are further right than the establishment GOP. Bush and Guzman appear to be fighting over traditional, pro-business Republicans."

A grand jury indicted Paxton on securities fraud charges in 2015, and former aides have accused him of bribery and abuse of office. Paxton has denied wrongdoing in both cases.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Texas' 1st: Nathaniel Moran won with 62.9%. Joe McDaniel was second with 24.3%. Four candidates ran. The district is open—incumbent Rep. Louie Gohmert (R) ran for attorney general.
Texas' 8th: This race was too close to call as of Thursday morning. Morgan Luttrell led with 52.2%. Christian Collins was in second with 22.3%. Eleven candidates ran. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Brady (R) didn't seek re-election.
Texas' 15th: Monica De La Cruz Hernandez won with 56.5%. Mauro Garza was second with 15.3%. Nine candidates ran. The district is open—incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) is running for re-election in the 34th District after redistricting.
Texas' 38th: Wesley Hunt won with 55.3%. Mark Ramsey had 30.2%. This is a newly created district following redistricting.

State executive

Governor: Incumbent Greg Abbott won with 66.4%. Next were Allen West and Don Huffines with 12.3% and 12.0%, respectively. Eight candidates ran in the GOP primary.
Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Sid Miller won with 58.5%. James White was second with 31.1%. Three candidates ran.

State legislature

State legislative: There were 62 Republican state legislative primaries. Nine were for the state Senate and 53 were for the state House. Two incumbent senators and 30 incumbent representatives faced primaries. No incumbent Republicans lost primaries on Tuesday.
- Both incumbent senators in contested primaries won on Tuesday. No Republican state senator has lost in a primary or runoff since 2014.
- Four of five state Senate candidates Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) endorsed won primaries. The fifth is headed to a runoff.
- There are three runoffs in the House with GOP incumbents—in districts 12, 60, and 85. Two GOP House incumbents were in primaries that haven't been called yet (districts 64 and 91). In 2020, no GOP House incumbents lost in primaries, and two lost in runoffs.

Media analysis

The Texas Tribune's Joshua Fechter said the following about primary results in terms of incumbents and challengers:

“

Texas’ top Republicans mostly fended off challengers in the GOP primary Tuesday. Meanwhile, a slate of progressives made inroads in Democratic primaries for Congress — but fell short of their goal of an immediate sweep that would reshape the Texas’ U.S. House delegation. …

Meanwhile, the status quo was largely preserved in the Texas Legislature. No state Senate incumbents lost their seats Tuesday night. In the House, one sitting Democrat lost and no incumbent Republicans were knocked out, though a few were forced into runoffs. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dade Phelan both saw the vast majority of their favored candidates win primaries in the chambers they preside over.^[20]

”

FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley said the following about the relation between the primary results and House incumbents' votes on certifying the 2020 election results:

“

I mentioned earlier tonight the strong hold that Trump continues to have on the GOP in Texas (many Republicans in the state have a popular view of the former president), and indeed, there were many strong performances by Republican incumbents who voted against certifying the 2020 election in the U.S. House — every one handily won renomination or looked to be on their way in a couple of uncalled races.

But in an example of how our politics are often full of contradictions, most Republicans who voted to certify the election did well, too — except Rep. Van Taylor … Taylor faced a number of attacks for his vote to certify the 2020 election results and for his support of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.^[20]

”

Incumbent candidates in IL-15 primary comment on Ukraine

U.S. Reps. Rodney Davis and Mary Miller are running in Illinois’ 15th Congressional District GOP primary. Both commented on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson said Miller's response "was in stark contrast to the reactions from the rest of the delegation, including the four other Illinois Republicans in the House" who denounced Putin. Several also called for sanctions.

Miller said on Feb. 24 that "Americans miss the 'Peace Through Strength' and energy independence that were achieved during the Trump Administration." Miller criticized Biden on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, immigration policy, and energy policy, saying, "None of this would be happening if President Trump was still in the White House." Trump endorsed Miller in the primary.

Davis tweeted on Feb. 24 that he "join[s] the free world in strongly condemning Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. [...] Thugs like Putin only respond to strength. Now is the time for severe economic consequences." He called for sanctions through passing the Putin Accountability Act and for increased military spending in the upcoming defense budget.

A Davis press release from January said the Putin Accountability Act would "bypass the Biden Administration’s soft-on-Russia approach."

Miller was first elected in 2020 to represent Illinois’ 15th. Davis was first elected in 2012 to represent the 13th. According to data from Daily Kos, 28% of the newly drawn 15th District’s population comes from Illinois’ old 13th District (which Davis represents) and 31% comes from the old 15th District (which Miller represents). Three independent race forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican.

Illinois’ primaries are scheduled for June 28.

February 24, 2022

Gov. Justice endorses Rep. McKinley against Rep. Mooney in WV-02

Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney are running against one another in the West Virginia 2nd Congressional District GOP primary due to redistricting. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsed McKinley. Mooney has former President Donald Trump's endorsement.

McKinley was one of 35 Republican House members to support a bill to create a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol breach last May. McKinley is also one of 13 House Republicans to vote in favor of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. Justice said, "Frankly, I do not agree with [McKinley's] vote to authorize a January 6th investigative committee. … However, it did take a lot of courage for him to vote for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and I know without question that vote was done out of his love for the great people of West Virginia."

Mooney has criticized McKinley's votes. One Mooney ad released in November 2021 said, "(President Joe) Biden’s trillion-dollar spending spree was dead until McKinley resurrected it, joining 12 RINO Republicans to spend trillions on (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi’s socialist agenda, contributing to record inflation for American workers, businesses, and families."

McKinley's campaign manager said, "It’s clear [Mooney] wants to distract the voters from the fact that McKinley has a better voting record with Trump than he does and a proven record of conservative wins for our miners, veterans, and the people of West Virginia."

McKinley and Mooney also voted differently on accepting 2020 presidential electors from Pennsylvania and Nevada. McKinley voted to accept all electors, saying "it is clear Congress has no role to object to the states’ election results once they are certified." Mooney said, "Congress should not accept electors from states where laws were violated, state constitutions were ignored and the legislature was subverted." Justice was first elected governor in 2016 as a Democrat. In 2017, Justice announced at a rally with Trump that he was joining the Republican Party.

West Virginia will have two congressional seats after this election cycle, down from three due to post-2020 census reapportionment.

Special election set to replace Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.)

On Feb. 21, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon (D) announced details for a special election to fill the state's vacant 1st Congressional District. Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) died of cancer on Feb. 17.

Simon scheduled a special primary for May 24 and the general election for Aug. 9. Candidates will have between March 1 and March 15 to file. Gov. Tim Walz (D) issued the Writ of Special Election on Feb. 22, making the election official.

The winner of the special election will fill the remainder of Hagedorn’s term. The regular election for the next full term will be held in November.

In 2018, Hagedorn defeated Dan Feehan (D) 50.1% to 49.7%. Walz represented the district before Hagedorn. At the time, Minnesota's 1st was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. In 2020, Hagedorn defeated Freehan (D) 48.6% to 45.5%.

Simon said the special election "will take place within the current congressional district boundaries, not the new 2022 redistricting maps."

February 17, 2022

Arrington challenges Mace in SC-01 with Trump endorsement

On Feb. 8, Katie Arrington announced she would challenge incumbent Nancy Mace (R) in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. The next day, Trump endorsed Arrington.

Arrington was the GOP nominee in the 1st District in 2018 after defeating incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford in the Republican primary. Joe Cunningham (D) defeated Arrington in the general election 50.6% to 49.2%. In 2020, Mace defeated Cunningham 50.6% to 49.3%.

Arrington said Mace "sold out the Lowcountry. She sold out President Trump. She is more interested in becoming a mainstream media celebrity than fighting for the people she’s supposed to represent."

Trump said, "Arrington is running against an absolutely terrible candidate, Congresswoman Nancy Mace, whose remarks and attitude have been devastating for her community, and not at all representative of the Republican Party to which she has been very disloyal. Katie Arrington, on the other hand, is liked and respected and a true Republican."

Mace criticized Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol breach, though she voted against impeachment later that month.

On Feb. 10, Mace said, "I remember in 2015 when President Trump announced his run, I was one of his earliest supporters . ... I supported him again in 2020 because of policies I believed in." Mace said of Arrington's bid, "I won this seat back for Republicans in 2020. … If you want to lose this seat once again in the midterm election cycle to Democrats, then my opponent is more than qualified to do just that."

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) endorsed Mace on Feb. 7. Haley, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump administration, called Mace "the conservative voice the Lowcountry needs in Washington."

The primary is scheduled for June 14.

Trump endorses Loren Culp in challenge to pro-impeachment House Republican

On Feb. 9, Trump endorsed Loren Culp in the primary for Washington's 4th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in January 2021.

Newhouse was first elected in 2014 and hasn't announced yet whether he'll seek re-election. Culp, a former police chief for the town of Republic, ran for governor of Washington in 2020, losing to incumbent Jay Inslee (D) 57% to 43%.

Trump has endorsed more than 40 candidates running for the U.S. House this year, including five challengers running against incumbents who voted to impeach him in January 2021. Of the 10 House Republicans who voted in favor of impeachment, three (Anthony Gonzalez, John Katko, and Adam Kinzinger) aren't running for re-election.

Washington holds top-two primaries for Congress, meaning that every candidate for a particular office appears on the same primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of their partisan affiliation, advance to the general election. Five Republicans and one Democrat are running in the primary so far.

The primary is set for Aug. 2.

February 10, 2022

Trump, other Republican officials and influencers divided over Tennessee U.S. House endorsement

Though the filing deadline for U.S. House candidates in Tennessee is almost two months away, prominent Republican officials and influencers have already issued competing endorsements in the 5th District primary. Located in the Nashville area, the 5th District had heavily favored Democrats under the 2010 district maps but is expected to strongly favor Republicans under the new district maps.

Former President Donald Trump endorsed former U.S. Department of State spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus on Jan. 25. Ortagus announced her bid this week. Several other elected Republicans and commentators have backed filmmaker Robby Starbuck.

Trump said Ortagus "understands the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and others, and will be tough, not just roll over like the Democrats and RINOs. She serves in the U.S. Navy Reserves and will fight for our Military. She won’t bow to the Woke Mob or the Leftist LameStream Media."

U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) reiterated his endorsement of Starbuck following Trump's Ortagus endorsement. U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) and former Trump administration official Sebastian Gorka endorsed Starbuck shortly after Trump's endorsement. Political commentator Candace Owens tweeted, "Nope. Trump has this completely wrong. @robbystarbuck is the correct pick for Tennessee’s 5th district and Tennesseans have his back."

Ortagus and Starbuck are among five candidates running in the GOP primary so far. The filing deadline is April 7 and the primary, Aug. 4.

Incumbent Jim Cooper (D), first elected in 2002, is not running for re-election.

Checking in on U.S. House incumbent-vs.-incumbent primaries

There are five primaries with incumbents running against one another so far. Two are Republican primaries.

With congressional redistricting unsettled in several states, there could be more incumbent-vs.-incumbent races on the horizon. That could happen if incumbents' home addresses or political bases of support are redrawn into the same district, or if multiple incumbents determine that the characteristics of a particular district are more favorable to their re-election.

Today, we're looking at how much money competing incumbents raised in 2021. The following data is from the Federal Election Commission.

Illinois' 15th (June 28 primary)

Rodney Davis: $1.8 million
Mary Miller: $777,000

West Virginia's 2nd (May 10 primary)

David McKinley: $1.5 million
Alexander Mooney: $3.1 million
Carly Braun (non-incumbent): $18,000

There were 11 incumbent-versus-incumbent U.S. House primaries in 2012—five Democratic, three Republican, and three in which candidates of all affiliations competed together. In the three districts where it was possible for candidates of the same party to advance to the general election (two using California's top-two primary system and one using Louisiana's majority-vote system), incumbents of the same party also competed in generals. Two additional races featured a general election contest between incumbents of different parties.

As of Feb. 9, 10 states hadn't adopted congressional redistricting plans yet and two states had adopted maps that courts then blocked. Thirty-one states had adopted congressional district maps. One state approved boundaries that hadn't yet taken effect. Six states have a single U.S. House district each, so no congressional redistricting is required.

January 27, 2022

Primary field in Florida’s 13th Congressional District grows

On Jan. 19, attorney Kevin Hayslett entered the Republican primary in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor, a position he held from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican.

Hayslett has endorsements from Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri (R) and Gualtieri's predecessor, Jim Coats (R). Five other candidates are running for the Republican nomination, including Anna Paulina Luna, the Republican Party's 2020 nominee in the district, and Amanda Makki, another returning candidate. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Luna last September and Makki has promoted her endorsements from 12 area mayors.

Luna defeated Makki and three others in the 2020 Republican primary, winning 36% of the vote to Makki’s 28%. Crist defeated Luna in the general election 53-47%.

Florida is in the process of redistricting. Currently, the 13th District has a slight Republican lean of R+1. Most plans would give the Tampa-area district a more Republican tilt ranging from R+2 in the state House's plan to R+14 in a plan Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) proposed.

The primary will take place on Aug. 23.

January 20, 2022

VA-07 to hold GOP primary instead of convention

Earlier this month, the 7th District Congressional Republican Committee voted to hold a primary election instead of a convention to select the party's nominee for the general election. Seventh District Republicans used nominating conventions in recent elections. FiveThirtyEight says the redrawn 7th leans Democratic (D+2), a change from a Republican lean (R+5) before redistricting.

Abigail Spanberger (D) represents the 7th and is running for re-election in the new 7th. Spanberger defeated incumbent David Brat (R) in 2018. Brat upset House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the last Republican primary the district held in 2014.

At least 11 candidates are running in the GOP primary so far, including state Del. John McGuire, state Sen. Bryce Reeves, and Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega.

January 13, 2022

State Sen. Coram challenges U.S. Rep. Boebert in Colorado

State Sen. Don Coram announced last week he is challenging Rep. Lauren Boebert in the Republican primary for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Coram said, "I’m looking at our state and our nation and I’m very concerned that the 10% on the right and the 10% on the left are making all the noise and getting all the attention, and the 80% in the middle are totally ignored."

Boebert was first elected in 2020 after defeating five-term incumbent Scott Tipton (R), who had Donald Trump's backing, in the Republican primary 55% to 45%. Trump endorsed Boebert for re-election last month. Boebert called Coram a "self-serving, super-woke social liberal who would have a far better chance of winning the Democrat nomination."

The primary is scheduled for June 28. Marina Zimmerman, who has worked as a crane operator and businesswoman, is also running.

Coram was appointed in 2017 to fill a vacancy in the state Senate and was elected in 2018. Due to redistricting, Coram cannot run for re-election in the 6th Senate District because he was drawn into a district with a state senator whose term doesn’t end until 2025.

January 6, 2022

Hogan seeks to counter Trump influence in GOP primaries

We wrote last month that Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed different candidates in Maryland's gubernatorial GOP primary, which Hogan can't run in due to term limits. The endorsement conflict doesn't stop in Hogan's current office. Hogan is campaigning for Republican incumbents around the country who have been critical of Trump and, in some cases, who face primary challengers Trump endorsed.

Hogan has so far fundraised for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.). Politico reported that Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Idaho Gov. Brad Little may also receive Hogan's support.

Hogan said, "It’s crazy. We’ve got the former president going after all these really good elected Republicans, and so I’m trying to support people who I think deserve to be in office. … We’re trying to help people wherever we can, and I’m sure we’re going to be doing a lot more of it."

Hogan held a fundraiser with Herrera Beutler in December. She was one of 10 House Republicans to vote for impeaching Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. Hogan has also hosted fundraisers for Kemp. Kemp and Trump clashed on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia. Trump backed challengers to both Herrera Beutler and Kemp.

Media outlets have discussed Hogan as a potential 2024 presidential contender, and Hogan hasn't confirmed or denied that he'll run. Politico's Alex Isenstadt wrote, "A Hogan 2024 bid would be decidedly uphill given Trump’s ongoing, vise-like hold over the GOP. But the governor has argued there is an opening in the party for a Trump critic."

Incumbents Miller, Davis face each other in redistricted IL-15

U.S. Rep. Mary Miller announced she'll run for re-election in Illinois' redrawn 15th Congressional District. Miller faces Rep. Rodney Davis, who represents the current 13th District, in the Republican primary. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Miller. Thirty-two of 35 county GOP chairs in the new 15th endorsed Davis.

Davis was first elected in 2012. Miller won her first term in 2020. Part of the current 15th District, which Miller represents, lies within the new 15th District. Miller's home is in the new 12th District. Davis lives within the new 15th District. Illinois lost one congressional district following the 2020 census.

According to CNN, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) encouraged Trump to endorse Miller, while House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) asked Trump not to get involved.

The Hill's Tal Axelrod wrote that Davis "has supported Trump in recent years but broke from him at times, including crossing the former president and House GOP leadership in voting to create a panel to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol." Davis criticized Trump in 2016 before the presidential election and went on to co-chair Trump's 2020 re-election campaign in Illinois.

Davis campaign spokesman Aaron DeGroot called Miller a carpetbagger and said Davis has "been hard at work highlighting his conservative accomplishments and work with President Trump during his time in office. … Rodney is an effective conservative member of Congress and Mary is not."

Miller said, "My life is spent in the real world, on my small family farm with my husband Chris, where we were blessed to raise our seven children and welcome our seventeen grandchildren. I bring those values to Washington, not the other way around." Miller is a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

The primary is scheduled for June 28.

House GOP leadership backs Chris Smith for re-election after Trump calls for primary challenger

Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) is running for a 22nd term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District with endorsements from the highest-ranking Republicans in the House—Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).

Smith was one of 13 House Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, which President Joe Biden (D) signed into law in November. Trump encouraged people to launch primary challenges against Smith and several other Republicans who backed the infrastructure bill.

So far, the primary field includes Mike Blasi, an Army veteran and retired law enforcement officer, and Mike Crispi, a talk show host. Save Jersey’s Matt Rooney reported that former Trump advisor Roger Stone would direct Crispi’s campaign.

We wrote in a previous issue about Stone’s endorsement of Martin Hyde in Florida’s 16th Congressional District primary, where Hyde is challenging eight-term incumbent Vern Buchanan.

New Jersey's new congressional district map places Smith’s hometown in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District. Smith said he’ll move to a new house in the 4th Congressional District.

The filing deadline is scheduled for April 4 and the primary, for June 7.

December 16, 2021

Rep. Miller might challenge either Rep. Davis or Rep. Bost after Illinois redistricting

U.S. Rep. Mary Miller (R-Ill.) told Politico that she is planning to run for re-election but hasn't decided which House district she'll run in. According to Politico, "Illinois' new congressional map splits her downstate district in two, leaving her in the undesirable spot of choosing between challenging GOP Reps. Mike Bost or Rodney Davis, two well-funded and popular incumbents who have both declared 2022 bids." Miller, first elected in 2020, represents Illinois' 15th Congressional District.

First elected in 2014, Bost represents Illinois' 12th Congressional District and is running for re-election. Bost said of his chances after redistricting, "If you look at the largest cities…the first five largest cities are in my old district."

Davis, who was first elected to the House in 2012, currently represents Illinois' 13th Congressional District and will run in the new 15th District. Davis said, "We didn't ask for the gerrymandered mess that is the Illinois map. … But I'm going to run in the district that I live in, which is always where I will run. And my job is to make sure that we hold that seat for Republicans."

CNN's Melanie Zanona and Manu Raju reported that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has encouraged Trump to endorse Miller and that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has asked Trump not to get involved. Zanona and Raju wrote, "A Trump endorsement would turbocharge the intraparty battle and potentially make things even stickier, something GOP leaders are eager to avoid."

Illinois lost one U.S. House district following the 2020 census—down to 17 from 18. The state enacted its new congressional map on Nov. 24. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, "The new map drawn by state Democrats includes three very safe GOP districts, down from five." The filing deadline is scheduled for March, and primaries are scheduled for June 28.

Texas primary update after Dec. 13 filing deadline

The filing period for Texas' U.S. House and state legislative races ended on Dec. 13. Texas has next year’s first primaries on March 1. We reviewed the list of candidates that filed with the secretary of state's office to identify the number of contested primaries. The numbers below were current the morning of Dec. 15. Note that the state may not have processed all candidates at that time.

U.S. House of Representatives

91 Republican candidates have filed.
20 Republican incumbents filed for re-election. Republicans currently represent three U.S. House districts where no incumbent is running.
Nine Republican incumbents currently face a contested primary.
21 U.S. House districts have multiple Republican candidates.

The current partisan composition of Texas' U.S. House districts is 13 Democrats and 23 Republicans. The state gained two additional districts after the 2020 census.

State Senate

34 Republican candidates have filed.
14 Republican incumbents have filed for re-election. Four Republican incumbents are not running for re-election.
1 Republican incumbent currently faces a contested primary.
6 Senate districts have multiple Republican candidates.

The current partisan composition of the Texas Senate is 18 Republicans and 13 Democrats.

State House of Representatives

201 Republican candidates have filed.
69 Republican incumbents have filed for re-election. Fifteen Republican incumbents are not running for re-election. In addition, State Rep. Trent Ashby (HD-57) is running in Texas’ 9th House District.
24 Republican incumbents currently face a contested primary.
47 House districts have multiple Republican candidates.

The current partisan composition of the Texas House is 85 Republicans and 65 Democrats.

December 2, 2021

An early look at two New Hampshire battleground primaries

One of 2022's other competitive Senate elections is expected to take place in New Hampshire. The state is also home to a swing congressional district (NH-01).

The big news in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate election is who isn't running. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced he'd seek a fourth term rather than challenging incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who Hassan defeated by 0.1 percentage points in 2016, is also not running. Former Sen. Scott Brown (R) is out as well.

Who is running?

So far, Republicans Don Bolduc and Tejasinha Sivalingam. Bolduc ran in and lost the 2020 GOP Senate primary. Sivalingam is a landlord and previously ran for state representative as a Republican and as a Democrat.

Other potential Republican candidates include:

Bryant "Corky" Messner, who defeated Bolduc in the 2020 GOP primary and lost to incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) 41% to 57% in the general
New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse, first elected to the chamber in 2010 and as president in 2020
Former U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta, who represented the state's 1st Congressional District from 2011 to 2013 and 2015 to 2017. Guinta ran against Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in four consecutive elections (winning twice and losing twice)
Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut
2010 Senate candidate/businessman Bill Binnie
Attorney Phil Taub

In the 1st Congressional District, Chris Pappas (D) has held office since the end of the Guinta/Shea-Porter back-and-forth in 2019. Six Republicans have filed so far, including:

2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers, who lost to Pappas 51% to 46%. Mowers served in the state department in Trump's administration.
State Rep. Tim Baxter
Former Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt
Broadcast journalist Gail Huff Brown (former Sen. Brown's wife)
Marine veteran Julian Acciard
Sales associate Gilead Towne

Three candidates received high-profile endorsements last month. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley endorsed Mowers. U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who chairs the House Republican Conference, endorsed Leavitt. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) backed Huff Brown.

New Hampshire's primaries are scheduled for Sept. 13. We'll be keeping a close eye on how Republican candidates approach the primaries in this competitive state.

November 18, 2021

Where Trump has endorsed challengers to GOP incumbents so far

Former President Donald Trump has made more than 50 endorsements in the 2022 elections so far, including several candidates challenging GOP incumbents. The table above includes incumbents who are running for re-election or have not announced their intentions.

Three of the four House incumbents with Trump-endorsed challengers voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection following the Jan. 6 Capitol breach: Liz Cheney, Jaime Herrera Beutler, and Fred Upton. Two of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach—Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16) and Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)—are not running for re-election.

Three incumbent Republican senators with seats up for election in 2022 voted "guilty" on Trump's 2021 impeachment: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Richard Burr (N.C.), and Pat Toomey (Penn.). Murkowski is the only one seeking re-election. Trump endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in the primary (which will be a top-four primary featuring candidates of all affiliations— click here for more information). Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the group will be supporting all incumbent senators.

Trump has criticized Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker on crime, policing, and other issues. Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued over the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in the state. We cover conflicts in the Idaho gubernatorial race below.

We'll be watching how impeachment votes and 2020 election claims unfold in these and other Republican primaries, along with policy differences between the candidates.

Flynn, Stone endorse challenger of 8-term incumbent in FL-16

Former Trump advisors Roger Stone and Michael Flynn endorsed Martin Hyde in Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Hyde is challenging eight-term incumbent Vern Buchanan in the Republican primary, scheduled for Aug. 23.

The Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Zac Anderson said Hyde is challenging Buchanan "from the right and [trying to] rally the MAGA faithful to his side." Hyde published a letter in the Herald-Tribune during Trump’s 2016 campaign in which he called Trump "wretched" and criticized Trump supporters for what he called "bigotry and bullying." In May 2021, Hyde said his opinion of Trump had evolved over time and that "[t]he fatal flaw in his character is probably also the most valuable quality that he has, where he’s not one of them. … That’s the light bulb or the thing that I saw over subsequent time, that Trump possessed something that the others didn’t."

At an event with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the district recently, Buchanan said he was "passionate about we [sic] need to find a way to build the wall," referencing Trump’s 2016 campaign theme of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Buchanan voted against impeaching Trump in January 2021 and voted against objecting to the presidential election results from Arizona and Pennsylvania on Jan. 6. According to FiveThirtyEight, Buchanan voted with Trump’s position 84% of the time in the 116th Congress and 97% of the time in the 115th Congress.

External links

Footnotes

↑ Rep. Donald McEachin (D) died on November 28, 2022, after winning re-election. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) won a special election on Feb. 21 to fill McEachin's seat and was sworn in on March 7.
↑ Louisiana is included here even though the state uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation are listed on the same first-round ballot.
↑ This does not include former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.), who resigned before the primary election but whose name remained on the official ballot.
↑ Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. His name still appeared on the primary ballot.
↑ Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election.
↑ Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary.
↑ McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election.
↑ McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary.
↑ Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. He withdrew before the runoff.
↑ Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election.
↑ Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary.
↑ Florida Politics, "Al Lawson to challenge Neal Dunn in new North Florida district," June 9, 2022
↑ The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Bourdeaux in matchup against McBath says she has incumbent’s edge," November 23, 2021
↑ Chicago Tribune, "U.S. Rep. Marie Newman announces she’ll challenge fellow Democrat Sean Casten following remap," October 29, 2021
↑ St. Louis Public Radio, "Miller and Davis will square off in race for Illinois’ 15th Congressional District," January 1, 2022
↑ The Detroit News, "Democratic Michigan Reps. Stevens, Levin appear set for a primary race," December 28, 2021
↑ The New York Times, "Judge Approves N.Y. House Map, Cementing Chaos for Democrats," May 21, 2022
↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Mayra Flores sworn in after flipping House seat in special election," June 21, 2022
↑ Roll Call, "Mooney, McKinley put in same district by new West Virginia map," October 14, 2021
↑ ^20.00 ^20.01 ^20.02 ^20.03 ^20.04 ^20.05 ^20.06 ^20.07 ^20.08 ^20.09 ^20.10 ^20.11 ^20.12 ^20.13 ^20.14 ^20.15 ^20.16 ^20.17 ^20.18 ^20.19 ^20.20 ^20.21 ^20.22 ^20.23 ^20.24 ^20.25 ^20.26 ^20.27 ^20.28 ^20.29 ^20.30 ^20.31 ^20.32 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.

[1] Rep. Donald McEachin (D) died on November 28, 2022, after winning re-election. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) won a special election on Feb. 21 to fill McEachin's seat and was sworn in on March 7.

[LADisclaimer-2] Louisiana is included here even though the state uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates regardless of partisan affiliation are listed on the same first-round ballot.

[3] This does not include former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.), who resigned before the primary election but whose name remained on the official ballot.

[4] Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. His name still appeared on the primary ballot.

[5] Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election.

[6] Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary.

[7] McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election.

[8] McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary.

[9] Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. He withdrew before the runoff.

[10] Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election.

[11] Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary.

[12] Florida Politics, "Al Lawson to challenge Neal Dunn in new North Florida district," June 9, 2022

[13] The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Bourdeaux in matchup against McBath says she has incumbent’s edge," November 23, 2021

[14] Chicago Tribune, "U.S. Rep. Marie Newman announces she’ll challenge fellow Democrat Sean Casten following remap," October 29, 2021

[15] St. Louis Public Radio, "Miller and Davis will square off in race for Illinois’ 15th Congressional District," January 1, 2022

[16] The Detroit News, "Democratic Michigan Reps. Stevens, Levin appear set for a primary race," December 28, 2021

[17] The New York Times, "Judge Approves N.Y. House Map, Cementing Chaos for Democrats," May 21, 2022

[18] The Hill, "GOP Rep. Mayra Flores sworn in after flipping House seat in special election," June 21, 2022

[19] Roll Call, "Mooney, McKinley put in same district by new West Virginia map," October 14, 2021

[quotedisclaimer-20] 20.00 ^20.01 ^20.02 ^20.03 ^20.04 ^20.05 ^20.06 ^20.07 ^20.08 ^20.09 ^20.10 ^20.11 ^20.12 ^20.13 ^20.14 ^20.15 ^20.16 ^20.17 ^20.18 ^20.19 ^20.20 ^20.21 ^20.22 ^20.23 ^20.24 ^20.25 ^20.26 ^20.27 ^20.28 ^20.29 ^20.30 ^20.31 ^20.32 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.

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[2]

[3]

[4]

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United States House Republican Party primaries, 2022

Partisan breakdown

Republican primaries

By date

By state

Battleground primaries

Incumbents defeated

Historical comparison

U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022

Links to redistricting coverage

News and conflicts in the 2022 Republican House primaries

Breaking down Trump's primary endorsements and outcomes

Potential 2024 presidential contenders emerge as counter-force

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

Redistricting and the primaries: By the numbers

U.S. House incumbent primary losses exceed last two redistricting cycles

Satellite spending and polling roundup in NH battleground races

Peltola wins special U.S. House election (and other Alaska updates)

Primary results roundup

Media coverage

St. Anselm poll finds most voters undecided, Mowers and Leavitt about even in NH-01

Primary results roundup

Media analysis

More than $3 million in satellite spending in OK-02 primary runoff

Florida’s 13th Congressional District primary leads the state in satellite spending

Primary results roundup

Media analysis

Republican Main Street Partnership releases policy agenda

Rep. Jackie Walorski dies, special election will be called for IN-02

Primary results roundup

Big stories of the night: MI-03, Michigan gubernatorial, and Missouri U.S. Senate primaries

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Chambers of Commerce endorse Rep. Peter Meijer in MI-03

Cheney trails Hageman in first Wyoming U.S. House primary poll

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Cheney, Hageman diverge on 2020 election, Jan. 6 committee at first U.S. House debate

Primary results roundup

Big stories of the night

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Cheney campaign tells voters how they can change their party affiliation ahead of primary

Primary results roundup

Media analysis

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mississippi incumbents may head to runoffs, Nunn wins IA-03

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

Paul Ryan and Donald Trump clash over SC-07 primary

The first-ever top-four congressional primary is on Saturday

Gun policy an issue in IL-15 incumbent matchup

Rep. Young Kim spends $1 million on ads ahead of top-two primary

Associated Press analysis: High number of 2020 Democratic primary voters participated in 2022 GOP primaries

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Other marquee primary results

Media analysis

First poll released for special U.S. House top-four primary in Alaska

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mooney defeats McKinley, Pillen defeats Herbster

Defeated incumbents

Media analysis

May 3 primary results roundup

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio

Other marquee primary results

Defeated incumbents

Media analysis

McKinley ad features Manchin support in WV-02

Rep. Joe Wilson endorses Katie Arrington in SC-01 Republican primary

No candidates receive GOP endorsement in MN-01 primary

April endorsements and spending in WV-02

West Virginia Congressional Districtsuntil January 2, 2023

West Virginia Congressional Districtsstarting January 3, 2023

Update: Tennessee GOP removes three candidates from TN-05 ballot

Executive committee removes four candidates from TN-05 primary

48 candidates file for special U.S. House election in Alaska

Upton retiring, leaving one incumbent in MI-04

Trump to rally for Cawthorn, while Tillis and others endorse challenger

Tennessee bill that would prevent Trump-endorsed candidate from running faces court challenge

VIEWPAC endorses Jennifer Strahan against Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14

West Virginia Congressional Districts
until January 2, 2023

West Virginia Congressional Districts
starting January 3, 2023