Republican Party gubernatorial primaries, 2022

2022 Republican Party primary elections
Battleground primaries
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; State executive battlegrounds
Federal primaries
	U.S. Senate primaries ; U.S. House primaries; U.S. House primaries with multiple incumbents
State primaries
	Gubernatorial primaries; Attorney General primaries; Secretary of State primaries; State legislative primaries
Primary overviews
	Democratic Party primaries, 2022; Republican Party primaries, 2022; Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2022; U.S. House battleground primaries, 2022
Primaries by state
	AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingSubmit

Out of all top state executive offices, only the governor and attorney general exist in all 50 states, and only the governor is elected in all 50 states. As the chief executive officer, the governor is among the most powerful figures in state government. There were 36 gubernatorial offices on the ballot in 2022.

Of those 36 governor's offices, 20 were held by Republicans and 16 were held by Democrats before the November 2022 elections.

On this page, you will find:

Election dates and results
List of seats up for election and pre-election incumbents
List of Republican primary candidates by state
News and conflicts in these primaries

Click here for more on the Democratic gubernatorial primaries in 2022.
Click here for more on the gubernatorial general elections in 2022.

Election dates and results

The following table details 2022 gubernatorial filing deadlines and primary dates in each state. The signature filing deadline was the date by which candidates had to file nominating signatures with election officials in order to have their name placed on the ballot.

2022 Election Dates
State	Filing deadline	Primary election	Primary winner
Alabama	January 28	May 24	Kay Ivey
Alaska	June 1	August 16	Mike Dunleavy (R), Les Gara (D), Charlie Pierce (R), and Bill Walker (I)^[1]
Arizona	April 4	August 2	Kari Lake
Arkansas	March 1	May 24	Sarah Huckabee Sanders
California	March 11	June 7	Brian Dahle
Colorado	March 15	June 28	Heidi Ganahl
Connecticut	June 7	August 9	Bob Stefanowski
Florida	June 17	August 23	Ron DeSantis
Georgia	March 11	May 24	Brian Kemp
Hawaii	June 7	August 13	Duke Aiona
Idaho	March 11	May 17	Brad Little
Illinois	March 14	June 28	Darren Bailey
Iowa	March 18	June 7	Kim Reynolds
Kansas	June 1	August 2	Derek Schmidt
Maine	March 15	June 14	Paul LePage
Maryland	April 15	July 19	Dan Cox
Massachusetts	June 7	September 6	Geoff Diehl
Michigan	April 19	August 2	Tudor Dixon
Minnesota	May 31	August 9	Scott Jensen
Nebraska	February 15 (incumbent) March 1 (non-incumbent)	May 10	Jim Pillen
Nevada	March 18	June 14	Joe Lombardo
New Hampshire	June 10	September 13	Chris Sununu
New Mexico	March 24	June 7	Mark Ronchetti
New York	April 7	June 28	Lee Zeldin
Ohio	February 2	May 3	Richard Michael DeWine
Oklahoma	April 15	June 28	Kevin Stitt
Oregon	March 8	May 17	Christine Drazan
Pennsylvania	March 15	May 17	Doug Mastriano
Rhode Island	July 15	September 13	Ashley Kalus
South Carolina	March 30	June 14	Henry McMaster
South Dakota	March 29	June 7	Kristi L. Noem
Tennessee	April 7	August 4	Bill Lee
Texas	December 13	March 1	Greg Abbott
Vermont	May 26	August 9	Phil Scott
Wisconsin	June 1	August 9	Tim Michels
Wyoming	May 27	August 16	Mark Gordon

Seats up for election

There are 20 Republican and 16 Republican seats up for election in 2022. The table and map below show which states held gubernatorial elections in 2022.

2022 Gubernatorial Races
State	Current Incumbent	Term-limited (Y/N)
Alabama	Kay Ivey	No
Alaska	Mike Dunleavy	No
Arizona	Doug Ducey	Yes
Arkansas	Asa Hutchinson	Yes
California	Gavin Newsom	No
Colorado	Jared Polis	No
Connecticut	Ned Lamont	No
Florida	Ron DeSantis	No
Georgia	Brian Kemp	No
Guam	Lou Leon Guerrero	No
Hawaii	David Ige	Yes
Idaho	Brad Little	No
Illinois	J.B. Pritzker	No
Iowa	Kim Reynolds	No
Kansas	Laura Kelly	No
Maine	Janet T. Mills	No
Maryland	Larry Hogan	Yes
Massachusetts	Charles D. Baker	No
Michigan	Gretchen Whitmer	No
Minnesota	Tim Walz	No
Nebraska	Pete Ricketts	Yes
Nevada	Steve Sisolak	No
New Hampshire	Chris Sununu	No
New Mexico	Michelle Lujan Grisham	No
New York	Kathy Hochul	No
Northern Mariana Islands	Ralph Torres	Yes
Ohio	Mike DeWine	No
Oklahoma	Kevin Stitt	No
Oregon	Kate Brown	Yes
Pennsylvania	Tom Wolf	Yes
Rhode Island	Daniel McKee	No
South Carolina	Henry McMaster	No
South Dakota	Kristi Noem	No
Tennessee	Bill Lee	No
Texas	Greg Abbott	No
Vermont	Phil Scott	No
U.S. Virgin Islands	Albert Bryan	No
Wisconsin	Tony Evers	No
Wyoming	Mark Gordon	No

By state

Alabama

See also: Alabama gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Jim Zeigler

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Alaska

See also: Alaska gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 16 top-four primary)

Primary candidates

Mike Dunleavy (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
Les Gara (Democratic Party) ✔
David Haeg (Republican Party)
John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party)
Christopher Kurka (Republican Party)
William Nemec II (Independent)
Charlie Pierce (Republican Party) ✔
William Toien (Libertarian Party)
Bruce Walden (Republican Party)
Bill Walker (Independent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

Jim Cottrell

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Arizona

See also: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Arkansas

See also: Arkansas gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

California

See also: California gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 7 top-two primary)

Primary candidates

Gavin Newsom (Incumbent) (Democratic Party) ✔
Ronald Anderson (Republican Party)
Heather Collins (Green Party)
Shawn Collins (Republican Party)
Brian Dahle (Republican Party) ✔
Anthony Fanara (Democratic Party)
Serge Fiankan (Independent)
James Hanink (Independent)
Ron Jones (Republican Party)
Jenny Rae Le Roux (Republican Party)
David Lozano (Republican Party)
Daniel Mercuri (Republican Party)
Cristian Morales (Republican Party)
Robert Newman (Republican Party)
Armando Perez-Serrato (Democratic Party)
Luis Rodriguez (Green Party)
Woodrow Sanders III (Independent)
Frederic Schultz (Independent)
Reinette Senum (Independent)
Michael Shellenberger (Independent)
Lonnie Sortor (Republican Party)
Anthony Trimino (Republican Party)
Joel Ventresca (Democratic Party)
Major Williams (Republican Party)
Leo Zacky (Republican Party)
Bradley Zink (Independent)
Gurinder Bhangoo (Republican Party) (Write-in)
Jeff Scott (American Independent Party of California) (Write-in)

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Colorado

See also: Colorado gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Heidi Ganahl ✔
Greg Lopez

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Connecticut

See also: Connecticut gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Bob Stefanowski ✔

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Florida

See also: Florida gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Ron DeSantis (Incumbent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

John Joseph Mercadante

Georgia

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Vernon Jones

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Hawaii

See also: Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 13 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Idaho

See also: Idaho gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Illinois

See also: Illinois gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Iowa

See also: Iowa gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Kim Reynolds (Incumbent) ✔

Kansas

See also: Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Arlyn Briggs
Derek Schmidt ✔

Did not make the ballot:

Maine

See also: Maine gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Paul LePage ✔

Maryland

See also: Maryland gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (July 19 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Massachusetts

See also: Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2022 (September 6 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Geoff Diehl ✔
Chris Doughty

Michigan

See also: Michigan gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Minnesota

See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Nebraska

See also: Nebraska gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Nevada

See also: Nevada gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Michele Fiore

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

New Hampshire

See also: New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2022 (September 13 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

New Mexico

See also: New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

New York

See also: New York gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Ohio

See also: Ohio gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Niel Petersen

Oklahoma

See also: Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Ervin Yen

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Oregon

See also: Oregon gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Pennsylvania

See also: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Rhode Island

See also: Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2022 (September 13 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

South Carolina

See also: South Carolina gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Henry McMaster (Incumbent) ✔
Harrison Musselwhite

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

South Dakota

See also: South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Kristi L. Noem (Incumbent) ✔
Steven Haugaard

Tennessee

See also: Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 4 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Bill Lee (Incumbent) ✔

Did not make the ballot:

Texas

See also: Texas gubernatorial election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Vermont

See also: Vermont gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Wisconsin

See also: Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey

Wyoming

See also: Wyoming gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary)

Republican primary candidates

Did not make the ballot:

Aaron Nab

News and conflicts in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial primaries

The following were reprinted from Ballotpedia's The Heart of the Primaries newsletter, which captured stories related to conflicts within each major party.

September 15, 2022

Breaking down Trump's primary endorsements and outcomes

Perhaps the most persistent storyline throughout the 2022 GOP primaries was former President Donald Trump's (R) involvement, mainly via endorsements. We tallied 244 primaries and conventions in which Trump endorsed, 241 of which had taken place as of September 15, 2022 (the other three were in Louisiana). See our endorsements page for a full list.

Unopposed

Of the primaries completed at the time, 60 candidates (25%) Trump endorsed ran unopposed. (We counted candidates who only had write-in opposition as unopposed.)

Contested

Of the 176 contested primaries that had taken place in which Trump endorsed (excluding five races in which candidates didn't make the ballot), 159 Trump endorsees won and 17 lost. That's a success rate of 90%.

Endorsed GOP incumbent challengers

Some of the most noteworthy GOP primaries of the year were those where Trump endorsed a challenger to a Republican incumbent. There were 17 such primaries, and six endorsed challengers defeated incumbents. All are listed in the table below.

Note that we didn't include the two primaries in which GOP incumbents ran against each other due to redistricting. In West Virginia's 2nd, Trump backed Rep. Alex Mooney against Rep. David McKinley, and Mooney won. And in Illinois' 15th, Trump-endorsed Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis. (More on these races below.)

Over the year, we covered a number of stories on battleground races in which Trump's influence was a major theme. Here are just a few stories capturing key moments:

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska (July)
Trump endorses Vance in Ohio U.S. Senate primary (April)
Trump endorses Oz in Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary (April)
RGA releases second pro-Kemp ad, Trump campaigns for Perdue in Georgia (March)
Arrington challenges Mace in SC-01 with Trump endorsement (February)

Potential 2024 presidential contenders emerge as counter-force

We also saw a thread of counter-forces throughout the primaries. Sometimes it was contrasting endorsements, and other times, overt criticism of Trump's involvement.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) made five gubernatorial primary endorsements in 2022, three of which contrasted with Trump's endorsements. Pence backed Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona, incumbent Brian Kemp in Georgia, and Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin.

In one of our first Heart of the Primaries issues of the 2022 cycle, we wrote that Maryland's term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Kelly Schultz in the gubernatorial primary the day after Trump endorsed Dan Cox. Cox won the primary in July, and Hogan said he wouldn't support Cox in the general election.

Hogan said Trump's endorsements against incumbent Republicans hurt the party. Hogan branched out from his home state, fundraising for incumbents Trump opposed including Kemp and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03).

Arizona's term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, chairman of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), endorsed Taylor Robson in Arizona's gubernatorial primary along with Beau Lane for secretary of state, countering Trump's endorsement of Mark Finchem in the latter primary.

We also wrote about the RGA spending $850,000 on pro-Kemp ads during Georgia's primary. The Hill's Max Greenwood said that "the spot for Kemp marks the first time that the group is financing a TV ad in a primary to support an incumbent facing a Republican challenger."

Trump, Pence, Hogan, and Ducey were all on our list of potential 2024 presidential candidates as of September 2022.

Democrats spent millions in GOP primaries

According to a Washington Post analysis, Democratic groups and individuals spent around $53 million in Republican primaries this year, 65% of which occurred in Illinois' gubernatorial primary. The rest occurred in 12 primaries across eight states.

The Post's Annie Linskey wrote, "Some Democrats explain their actions by saying they are simply getting a jump on attacking Republican candidates for the general election, while others openly acknowledge trying to secure weaker competition in the fall. But there is little dispute about the effect of altering the Republican primaries in ways that could affect the November matchups."

We wrote about Democratic groups spending in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary and the 2nd Congressional District last week. Previous issues included stories on Democratic spending in Maryland's gubernatorial election and Illinois' gubernatorial primary.

After the $35 million Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the Democratic Governors Association spent on ads the Post said were meant to boost Darren Bailey, who won the GOP primary, the Post found the next-highest spending levels in Colorado's U.S. Senate primary ($4 million), Nevada's gubernatorial primary ($3.9 million), and New Hampshire's U.S. Senate primary ($3.2 million).

The Post described candidates the Democratic groups apparently intended to support as far right. Four of those candidates won primaries and seven lost.

Linskey's piece also discussed the debate among Democrats over Democratic spending in GOP primaries. Read more here.

Cross-party primary spending has happened before. For example, in 2012, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ran ads designed to boost Todd Akin in Missouri's GOP Senate primary, whom McCaskill went on to defeat in the general election. In 2020, a Republican group spent on ads and activities supporting Erica Smith (D) in North Carolina's Democratic Senate primary. Cal Cunningham defeated Smith in the primary.

September 8, 2022

Massachusetts primary highlight

Governor: Geoff Diehl defeated Chris Doughty on Tuesday. As of Wednesday morning, Diehl led 56%-44%. Diehl was a state representative from 2011 to 2019.

Politico Massachusetts Playbook's Lisa Kashinsky wrote:

“

It’s Maura Healey versus Geoff Diehl in a governor’s race that will be a referendum on former President Donald Trump's legacy and rhetoric in a historically anti-Trump state.

Trump-backed Diehl clinched the Republican nomination over more moderate political newcomer Chris Doughty, setting up a November clash between the conservative former state representative and the two-term attorney general who burnished her profile by repeatedly suing the Trump administration.

Republicans will “bring Trumpism to Massachusetts,” Healey declared in her victory speech, delivered before the GOP primary was called. She painted her Republican rival as someone who will “oppose abortion rights” — Diehl says he’s “pro-life” — and is generally “out of touch with the values we stand for.”

Diehl, in turn, cast Healey as “the people’s worst nightmare” in his speech. “We are going to be redefining politics as usual here in Massachusetts. For the first time in our state’s history, we are going to run a campaign focused specifically on we the people, our freedoms, our rights and our prosperity.”^[2]

”

Trump endorses in 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial primary

As the 2022 primary season wraps up, we're beginning to look ahead to 2023's races. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron for governor last month.

Cameron is one of seven declared GOP candidates, alongside former Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, David Cooper, Eric Deters, Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts Mike Harmon, state Rep. Savannah Maddox, and Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles. Former Gov. Matt Bevin (R) has not ruled out running. When the Courier Journal asked Bevin ahead of the Kentucky Farm Bureau's annual breakfast if he was planning to run, Bevin replied, "I am planning to eat ham."

The date of the Republican primary isn't set yet. The 2019 primary took place on May 21.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is running for re-election. Beshear defeated Bevin in 2019 49.2% to 48.8%. Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

Click here to see stories from previous editions.

September 1, 2022

Globe backs Doughty in Massachusetts gubernatorial primary

The Boston Globe editorial board wrote that "reasonable conservatives need to mobilize for Chris Doughty" in the GOP gubernatorial primary and "reset the Massachusetts state Republican Party by pulling it from the grip of Donald Trump."

Doughty faces former state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R), who Trump endorsed before Republican Gov. Charlie Baker announced he wouldn't seek re-election. Trump and Baker have criticized one another. Baker hasn't endorsed in the primary.

Before the Globe published its endorsement, Diehl said he refused to meet for an endorsement interview and called the paper's editorial page "essentially just a bulletin board for left-wing progressive talking points and utopian daydreams."

Doughty said at a July debate, "Geoff cannot win running as an Alabama Republican in the state of Massachusetts." Doughty has emphasized his business background and says he is equipped to address the high cost of living in the state.

Diehl highlighted that he won 71% of the state party convention endorsement vote and criticized Doughty for voting for Hillary Clinton (D) for president in 2016. Diehl says his record includes keeping gas taxes low and has emphasized his opposition to mask mandates.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has campaigned for Doughty, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) has campaigned for Diehl.

As of 2021, 10% of the state's registered voters were Republican, compared to 57% unenrolled and 32% Democratic (unenrolled voters can vote in party primaries in Massachusetts).

The primary is Sept. 6.

Louisiana Lt. Gov. Nungesser says he'll run for governor next year

Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) said that he plans to run for governor of Louisiana in 2023. The Associated Press also listed U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, U.S. Rep. Garret Graves, state Treasurer John Schroder, and Attorney General Jeff Landry as possible Republican contenders.

AP wrote, "Louisiana is the rare conservative state to have a Democratic governor. The moderate [Gov. John Bel] Edwards won hard-fought races in 2015 and 2019, but he is unable to seek a third consecutive term due to term limits. That means 2023 is a huge opportunity for Republicans to take control of the state that voted for Donald Trump by wide margins in the past two presidential contests."

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State office, 40% of registered voters are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% have a different affiliation. FiveThirtyEight gives the state a partisan lean—a measure of how the state votes compared to the country as a whole—of R+20.5.

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in a preliminary election. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they win the election outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a second election.

Nungesser defeated Willie Jones (D) outright in 2019's preliminary election for lieutenant governor.

Edwards and Eddie Rispone (R) advanced from the preliminary gubernatorial election that year with 47% and 27%, respectively. Edwards won the final election 51.3%-48.7%.

Of the 17 states that elect governors and lieutenant governors separately, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Vermont have governors and lieutenant governors of different parties.

August 11, 2022

Primary results roundup

Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin held primaries on Tuesday. Here are some highlights.

Wisconsin Governor: Tim Michels won with 47% of the vote to Rebecca Kleefisch's 42% as of Wednesday morning. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Michels. Former Gov. Scott Walker and former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed Kleefisch. Michels faces Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the Toss-up general election.

Wisconsin State Assembly District 63: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos defeated Adam Steen 51% to 49%. Vos has been in office since 2005, and his peers chose him as speaker in 2013. Trump endorsed Steen the week before the primary.

Vermont U.S. House: Liam Madden won the primary with 41% of the vote as of Wednesday afternoon. Ericka Redic had 32% and Anya Tynio, 27%. Madden describes himself as an independent and said as of Wednesday he was deciding whether to accept the GOP nomination or run as an independent. In his Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey, Madden said, "The two party system prevents us from solving our problems. It doesn't represent us, doesn't work, drives us apart, and is controlled by elites."

Also, some updates from Aug. 2 primaries:

Washington's 3rd District and Washington's 4th District: Each of these top-two primaries featured a Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. In the 4th District, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) and Doug White (D) advanced. The 3rd District race isn't called yet. As of Wednesday, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) had 31%, Trump-backed Joe Kent (R) had 23%, and Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) was third with 22%. Herrera Beutler conceded on Tuesday. If Herrera Beutler loses, she'll be the 11th U.S. representative who ran for re-election and lost in a primary this year.

Arizona Governor: Kari Lake won with 48% to Karrin Taylor Robson's 43%. This was another race where Trump and Pence backed different candidates, with Trump endorsing Lake and Pence endorsing Taylor Robson.

Media analysis

Courthouse News Service wrote about Michels' and Kleefisch's campaign messages and the possible effects a Republican governor would have on Wisconsin law:

“

Kleefisch’s campaign connected her to the Walker administration’s highest profile moves, including most prominently the passage of Act 10, a 2011 law that gutted the collective bargaining power of most public sector unions and sparked massive protests from what Kleefisch has called “the liberal mob.”

Michels, who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in 2004, ran a campaign based on his business acumen and disregard for the political culture in the state Capitol in Madison. The 60-year-old spent nearly $12 million of his own money on his campaign and cast himself as a disruptive candidate similar to Donald Trump, who endorsed Michels and stumped for him in Waukesha on Aug. 5.

Kleefisch, 47, was backed by Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, Wisconsin’s most influential business and commerce lobbies, and important figures in the state Republican Party like Vos. …

With the Wisconsin Legislature firmly in the control of Republicans for now — and very likely for the near future — either candidate as governor would have been likely to sign into law sweeping changes or maintain current conservative legislation on abortion, education and, maybe most importantly, elections.^[2]

”

Fox6 wrote about the conflict over the 2020 presidential election between Vos and Steen:

“

Vos has had a hand in every major Republican initiative over the last decade.

Vos, and the Republican agenda, has been largely blocked by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers the past two years. Vos fell out of favor with Trump after he refused to push to decertify Biden’s win in Wisconsin. Vos, citing legal experts, said decertification was unconstitutional.

Steen, a landlord who has never served in public office, ran on the platform of decertifying the election. Days before the primary, he touted his support for banning all birth control.^[2]

”

The Cook Political Report said of Republican representatives who voted for impeachment:

“

Herrera Beutler's loss, combined with Rep. Liz Cheney's likely defeat in Wyoming next week and California Rep. David Valadao's vulnerability in November, means it's possible only one of ten pro-impeachment Republicans — Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04) will remain in Congress come January 2023. In the 4th CD, Newhouse only squeaked past extremely weak, Trump-endorsed small town sheriff Loren Culp 25%-21% to advance to the fall.^[2]

”

August 4, 2022

Primary results roundup

Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington held statewide primaries on Tuesday. Ohio held state legislative primaries. As of Wednesday afternoon, several of Arizona's races were still undecided. Here are highlights from Tuesday's battlegrounds.

Big stories of the night: MI-03, Michigan gubernatorial, and Missouri U.S. Senate primaries

Michigan's 3rd District: John Gibbs defeated incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer. As of Wednesday morning, Gibbs had 52% to Meijer's 48%. Meijer was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021. Trump endorsed Gibbs in the primary. Gibbs previously served as acting assistant secretary for community planning and development in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Trump appointed him to that position in 2020.

Meijer is one of 10 House incumbents, and one of six Republicans, who ran for re-election and lost in primaries this year. In 2020, eight incumbents lost in primaries or conventions, including five Republicans.

Three race forecasters viewed the general election for Michigan's 3rd as a Toss-up before the primary.

Michigan governor: Tudor Dixon won. As of Wednesday morning, Dixon had 41% of the vote. Kevin Rinke was second with 22%, and Garrett Soldano third with 18%. Trump endorsed Dixon days before the primary. Dixon was a news anchor for America's Voice News.

Race forecasters view the general election as either Lean or Tilt Democratic. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seeking re-election.

U.S. Senate in Missouri: Eric Schmitt won against 20 other candidates. As of Wednesday morning, Schmitt had 46% of the vote. Vicky Hartzler had 22%, and Eric Greitens had 19%.

Schmitt has been the state's attorney general since 2019. Hartzler has represented Missouri's 4th Congressional District since 2011. Greitens was governor from 2017 until June 1, 2018, when he resigned following investigations into allegations of sexual misconduct and misuse of campaign information.

On August 1, Trump released a statement endorsing "Eric" in the race but did not say whether he was endorsing Greitens or Schmitt.

Incumbent Roy Blunt (R), who was first elected in 2010, didn't run for re-election. Before the primary, independent forecasters viewed the general election as Likely or Solid Republican.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate in Arizona: Blake Masters defeated four other candidates. Masters had 39% of the vote with 78% of results reported. Jim Lamon was second with 29% and Mark Brnovich third with 18%. Masters will face incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in what election forecasters view as a Toss-up race in November.

Arizona's 1st District: Rep. David Schweikert won with 43%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. Elijah Norton had 33%, and Josh Barnett 23%. Schweikert currently represents Arizona's 6th Congressional District and ran in the 1st due to redistricting. According to Daily Kos data, 75% of the redrawn 1st District, which covers parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, came from areas Schweikert represents in the old 6th District. Race forecasters view the 1st District general election as Lean Republican.

Arizona's 2nd District: Eli Crane defeated six other candidates with 34% of the vote. Walter Blackman finished second with 24%. Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), who represents the old 1st District, is running in the 2nd. Forecasters view the general election as Likely or Lean Republican.

Kansas attorney general: Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach won with 42% to state Sen. Kellie Warren's 38%, according to results available Wednesday afternoon. The race is open as incumbent Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) is running for governor.

Other primaries we've followed closely and that hadn't been called as of Wednesday afternoon were for Arizona governor and superintendent of public instruction. Click the links to follow up on those races.

Media analysis

The Washington Times' Seth McLaughlin wrote about Meijer's defeat and the primary results for other GOP representatives who voted for impeachment:

“

Rep. Peter Meijer lost his primary race Tuesday in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, handing former President Donald Trump another victory in his quest to rid the House of Republicans who voted to impeach him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Another pair of pro-impeachment Republicans — Reps. Dan Newhouse and Jaime Herrera Beulter, both of Washington state — were awaiting their fate Wednesday morning.

But they were well-positioned to advance to the general election in Washington’s top-two primary system, while Mr. Trump’s preferred picks appeared to have fallen short.

Mr. Meijer’s loss came more than 18 months after he joined nine of his GOP colleagues in voting to impeach Mr. Trump.

The former president vowed revenge and has gotten it. Four pro-impeachment Republicans did not seek reelection, and two others have now lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

The attention will now turn to Rep. Liz Cheney’s Aug. 16 primary in Wyoming.^[2]

”

Politico wrote that Tuesday's results were favorable to what it called "the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party:"

“

Republicans dodged two bullets on Tuesday. In Missouri, Eric Greitens, the disgraced former governor, finished far behind in his Senate primary bid. And in Michigan, Tudor Dixon emerged from a gubernatorial primary full of more hard-line contenders many Republicans feared would be a drag on the party in November.

That’s good news for the GOP. And it’s a departure from where the party appeared to be heading in many of its early primaries — picking candidates who seem dangerously prone to getting in the way of the good political environment for Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, physician Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for Senate, has been polling so poorly Republicans are discussing alternative paths to the Senate majority. Republicans all but conceded the gubernatorial race in heavily-Democratic Maryland after nominating Dan Cox, the Trump-endorsed state lawmaker who organized buses to Washington for the rally preceding the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

It’s possible the early results on Tuesday will turn out to be a blip. In Arizona, Mark Finchem, an election denier running for secretary of state with Trump’s endorsement, was running ahead. And overall in this year’s primaries, said Jason Roe, the former executive director of the state Republican Party in Michigan, "I think in a lot of cases we have nominated our weakest general election candidates, so the primaries have not served us well."

But for the traditionalist wing of the Republican Party, the early indications on Tuesday were mostly positive. An exception: Kari Lake, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor who still insists, falsely, that Trump won the 2020 election, pulled ahead of Karrin Taylor Robson, the establishment-backed candidate, as vote-counting continued through Wednesday morning.^[2]

”

Reuters' James Oliphant discussed Dixon's win in Michigan in the context of abortion policy and Dixon's prospects against Whitmer in November:

“

In the Michigan governor's race, there will be no middle ground when it comes to abortion rights. … Whitmer has made the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of constitutional protection for abortion a centerpiece in her re-election campaign. Dixon supports a near-total ban on abortion, including for child victims of rape and incest, with the only exception for cases when the life of the mother is at risk.

A legal battle is being waged in the state over enforcement of a 1931 abortion ban. At the same time, supporters of abortion rights are seeking to place a measure on the November ballot that would legalize abortion in the state.

With just three months until the election, longtime Republican pollster Steve Mitchell said Dixon has enough time to mount a competitive challenge to Whitmer and should see a strong flow of campaign funds from outside the state.

Dixon is a former businesswoman in the steel industry who has billed herself as a "conservative mom" of four who opposed COVID-19 lockdowns at schools. Mitchell said she could appeal to like-minded parents and make a strong foil to Whitmer, who often talks about her own role as a mother of daughters and also faced criticism for her coronavirus lockdown orders.

"It’s going to be a fascinating race," Mitchell said. "In my opinion, none of the men (in the Republican field) could have beaten Whitmer."^[2]

”

Hogan comments on direction of GOP after Cox primary win

As we wrote last month, Dan Cox won Maryland's gubernatorial primary with Trump's backing. Among the candidates Cox defeated was Kelly Schulz, whom incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed. Hogan said this did not deter him in his efforts to influence the party's direction.

Hogan told CNN's Jake Tapper, "I think in November we're going to have a different story when a lot of these fringe candidates lose, and then we're going to have to start thinking about, between November's election and the election two years later, what kind of a party are we going to be, and can we get back to a more Reaganesque, big-tent party that appeals to more people, or are we going to double down on failure?"

According to The Washington Post, Hogan "has been weighing a presidential bid after he leaves office in January."

Trump said the night of the gubernatorial primary, "RINO Larry Hogan’s Endorsement doesn’t seem to be working out so well for his heavily favored candidate. Next, I’d love to see Larry run for President!"

Cox faces Wes Moore (D), David Lashar (L), and Kyle Sefcik (I) in the general election. Three election forecasters view the race as Likely or Solid Democratic.

Pence endorses different candidate than Trump endorsed for Wisconsin governor

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) endorsed Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary. Trump will be in Waukesha on Friday to rally with the candidate he endorsed, Tim Michels.

This was Pence's fifth gubernatorial endorsement of 2022 and the third time he and Trump backed different candidates. They endorsed different candidates in Arizona's and Georgia's gubernatorial primaries.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) also recently endorsed Kleefisch.

Meanwhile, Club for Growth Action spent $1.1 million on ads opposing Kleefisch. Freedom Wisconsin PAC has spent $2.3 million opposing Michels.

Kleefisch served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Scott Walker (R) from 2011 to 2019. Michels co-owns a construction company and served in the Army for 12 years.

The primary is on Aug. 9.

July 21, 2022

Dan Cox wins Maryland gubernatorial primary

Dan Cox won the Republican primary for Maryland governor, defeating Robin Ficker, Kelly Schulz, and Joe Werner. With 80% of the expected vote in, Cox led Schulz 56% to 40%. (Mail ballot counting didn't begin until Thursday morning, but outlets didn't believe there were enough of those ballots to affect the outcome.)

Cox is an attorney who has served in the state House of Delegates since 2018. Schulz, who has worked in the defense and cybersecurity industries, served as Maryland’s secretary of commerce from 2019 through January of this year.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Cox, while outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Schulz. Media observers referred to the primary as a proxy battle between Trump and Hogan. Hogan said in 2020 he wrote in Ronald Reagan for president rather than voting to re-elect Trump. Hogan said Wednesday he would not support Cox in the general election.

The Cook Political Report shifted its general election race rating from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic on Wednesday.

Media analysis

Politico and The Wall Street Journal wrote about factional conflict in the gubernatorial primary and the Democratic Governors Association ads about Cox.

Politico wrote:

“

The win for Cox … who has full-throatedly embraced Trump’s repeated falsehoods about fraud in the 2020 election, scored the former president a victory in his fight with Hogan over the direction of the party both in the state and nationally.

Hogan had backed Kelly Schulz, a former state lawmaker who served in his Cabinet until earlier this year. The Hogan political machine mobilized for Schulz, with prominent advisers to the governor lending a hand to Schulz’ campaign.

"Get rid of Shutdown RINO Larry Hogan who is trying to get another RINO into office, Kelly Schulz," Trump said in a statement on Monday.

The closing weeks of the race were dominated by the Democratic Governors Association, which dropped a multi-million ad campaign "attacking" Cox as too loyal to Trump. The DGA has insisted it was merely getting a head start on the general election, casting Cox as the frontrunner — despite public polling in the run-up to Tuesday showing Cox and Schulz deadlocked. But the campaign was widely seen as an attempt to boost the more extreme candidate in the Republican primary, in hopes that Cox would be easier to beat in the general election.^[2]

”

The Wall Street Journal wrote:

“

The primary election outcome sets up what political analysts predict will be an uphill battle for Mr. Cox in the November general election, given that registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 in Maryland and that President Biden defeated Mr. Trump 65% to 32% in 2020.

Maryland, whose incumbent is outgoing moderate Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, is one of the few largely Democratic states where the GOP currently holds the governor’s office. … Mr. Cox pledged to cut taxes, stop what he calls gender indoctrination of schoolchildren and "end the blood running in our streets with high crime and drug deaths." He has said he thinks the 2020 presidential election was stolen and would order a "forensic audit" of that year’s election.

… Ms. Schulz had hoped to follow Mr. Hogan’s playbook by assembling a coalition of Republicans, independents and Democratic voters in the general election had she won the primary.

Political analysts say Mr. Cox likely benefited from the roughly $1.2 million in advertising that the Democratic Governors Association was projected to air in the primary. The DGA ran an ad highlighting Mr. Cox’s antiabortion and gun-rights stances, his false claim that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent, and Mr. Trump’s endorsement. It also labeled him as too conservative for Maryland.^[2]

”

Pence, Ducey endorse for Arizona governor and secretary of state, countering Trump

In the last couple of weeks, former Vice President Mike Pence and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey have added to their lists of endorsements countering those of former President Trump.

Pence endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson for Arizona governor. This is Pence's fourth gubernatorial endorsement of 2022 and the second in which he has clashed with Trump. Trump backed Kari Lake for Arizona governor. Earlier this year, Pence endorsed Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Trump-endorsed David Perdue in the primary.

AZCentral reported that Pence is scheduled to attend events for Taylor Robson in Phoenix and elsewhere on Friday, while Trump is holding a rally for Lake that day in Prescott Valley.

As we wrote last week, Ducey also endorsed Taylor Robson. Ducey is term-limited.

Ducey recently endorsed Beau Lane for secretary of state. Lane faces Mark Finchem, whom Trump endorsed, and two others in the GOP primary.

Ducey said, "The 2022 elections haven’t even been held yet, and already we’re seeing speculation doubting the results — especially if certain candidates lose. … It’s one of the most irresponsible things I can imagine."

AZCentral reported,

“

Late last month, at a campaign stop in Chandler, Finchem said he would not concede his race if there was any suggestion of wrongdoing.

"There ain’t gonna be no concession speech coming from this guy," Finchem said. "I’m going to demand 100% hand count (of ballots) if there’s the slightest hint of any impropriety. And I would urge the next governor to do the same thing."^[2]

”

Arizona's secretary of state, Katie Hobbs (D), is running for re-election.

President Joe Biden defeated Trump 49.4% to 49.1% in Arizona in 2020. Three forecasting outlets rate the gubernatorial general election a Toss-up.

The primaries are Aug. 2.

July 14, 2022

Ducey backs Taylor Robson for Arizona governor, countering Trump

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson in the gubernatorial primary. In his endorsement video, Ducey said, "Karrin is the real deal: pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-wall – and she'll stand up to Joe Biden and the radical left." Ducey is term-limited.

A recent OH Predictive Insights poll of likely voters shows Taylor Robson with 35% to Kari Lake's 40%. Twenty-one percent of respondents were undecided. The margin of error was +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake. We wrote last week about the candidates' differing views on the 2020 presidential election.

12 News wrote, "Ducey has more at stake in the governor's race than simply clearing the way for a preferred successor. As chair of the Republican Governors' Association, Ducey has worked across the country to elect governors who aren't cut from the Trump mold."

The primary is Aug. 2.

Nicholson exits Wisconsin gubernatorial primary

The Republican primary for Wisconsin governor is now a four-person contest.

On July 5, Kevin Nicholson suspended his campaign. Nicholson’s name will still appear on the primary ballot.

Nicholson, a Marine Corps veteran, had positioned himself as the political outsider in the race. Nicholson said, "It has become clear to me and my team the only path forward for our campaign is attacking the other candidates in the race on the airwaves and running a very negative campaign … [T]hat is not something I want to do." Nicholson said he would not make an endorsement.

On July 8, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) endorsed Tim Michels, an army veteran and construction company owner. Thompson served as governor from 1987 to 2001. Trump endorsed Michels in June.

Also on July 8, former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch announced that 58 Republican state legislators endorsed her. On July 11, Kleefisch released a new ad featuring former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), who endorsed Kleefisch in February.

The primary is on Aug. 9.

July 7, 2022

Trump to rally for Dunleavy, Palin, Tshibaka in Alaska

Former President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday for GOP candidates in three battleground elections: Gov. Mike Dunleavy, At-Large House candidate Sarah Palin, and U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka.

Top-four primaries will be held Aug. 16, the same day as a ranked-choice voting special general election for U.S. House. Candidates of all affiliations will appear on the same ballot in each race.

Dunleavy faces four Republicans, one Democrat, two independents, and two minor party candidates. That includes former Gov. Bill Walker (I), who withdrew from the 2018 gubernatorial race that Dunleavy ultimately won; former state Rep. Les Gara (D); Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce (R); and state Rep. Christopher Kurka (R).

Nineteen candidates are running for U.S. Senate, including incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R). Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the state Department of Administration, is one of seven Republicans challenging Murkowski. Three Democrats, three minor party candidates, and five independent or nonpartisan candidates are also running. Murkowski is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year who voted guilty during Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three have seats up for election this year. North Carolina's Richard Burr and Pennsylvania's Pat Toomey aren't seeking re-election.

Palin, a former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, is running in both the special general election and the regular top-four primary for U.S. House on Aug. 16. Palin advanced from the 48-candidate special primary field with 27% of the vote. She joins investor Nick Begich III (R) and former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in the special general election. Al Gross (I) also advanced from the June 11 primary but withdrew from the race on June 20. Former incumbent Don Young (R) died in March. Twenty-two candidates are running in the top-four regular primary, including Begich, Palin, and Peltola.

The Alaska Republican Party has endorsed both Dunleavy and Pierce in the gubernatorial election, Tshibaka in the Senate election, and Begich in the House election.

Alaska voters approved the new top-four primary/ranked-choice voting general election system in 2020. Click here for more information.

Schulz criticizes Democratic Governors Association ad in Maryland

Maryland gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schulz criticized a Democratic Governors Association (DGA) ad, saying the group intended it to help Dan Cox, her Republican primary opponent.

The DGA ad said, "Cox worked with Trump trying to prove the last election was a fraud. 100% pro life. He's fighting to end abortion in Maryland, and Cox will protect the Second Amendment at all costs, refusing to support any federal restrictions on guns. Even pushing to put armed guards in every school."

Schulz said, "Two weeks ago, our campaign predicted that national Democrats would spend millions of dollars to prop up fringe candidate Dan Cox so they would not … have to face me in the general election. … They’re afraid of losing four out of the last six governor’s races here in Maryland. And because of this, they’re willing to support a lying conspiracy theorist like Dan Cox[.]"

Cox said, "I am being attacked now by both moderate ‘do-nothing’ Kelly Shulz’s failing campaign and by the Democratic Governors Association who views me as the frontrunner they intend to tear down in the eyes of Maryland’s voters."

DGA spokesman Sam Newton said, "As Maryland’s MAGA primary for governor is heating up and recent polls show Kelly Schulz is failing to gain any momentum against Trump-endorsed Dan Cox, it’s telling that her campaign is already looking for excuses."

Politico wrote, "The committee reserved at least $1.2 million worth of airtime, according to data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact — more than what Cox and Schulz have spent on advertising combined."

Cox was elected to the Maryland House of Delegates in 2018. Former President Trump endorsed him. Schulz was Maryland’s secretary of commerce from 2019 to January 2022. Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is term-limited, endorsed her.

The primary is July 19. Race forecasters view the general election as Lean or Likely Democratic. This is one of six governorships Republicans are defending in states President Biden won in 2020. Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 33 percentage points in the state.

Salmon exits Arizona governor’s race, candidates participate in debate

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdrew from the gubernatorial primary in Arizona. Salmon said that "the path to a first-place victory is no longer a realistic possibility. Republican primary voters deserve more than having their votes split[.]"

Salmon endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson the next day. Salmon’s name will still appear on the ballot due to the timing of his withdrawal.

Salmon was trailing Kari Lake, a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, and Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, in recent polls.

Club for Growth and FreedomWorks had endorsed Salmon, along with U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.). As of July 5, none of those organizations or individuals had endorsed another candidate in the race.

On June 29, Lake, Taylor Robson, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani Zen participated in a televised debate hosted by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission.

Arizona Republic’s Stacey Barchenger said the debate was an "hourlong throw down between the contenders."

Lake said she would not have certified the 2020 presidential election results: "We had a corrupt election. I'd actually like to ask everybody on this stage if they would agree we had a corrupt stolen election? Raise your hand."

Neely and Tulliani Zen raised their hands, while Taylor Robson didn't. Taylor Robson said the election wasn't fair because new policies were implemented shortly before the election and tech companies suppressed conservative voices. Robson also referenced donations from Zuckerberg to nonprofits that provided funding to election offices in 2020. Taylor Robson said, "But I am focused on 2022 because the left is 10 steps ahead of us."

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. Three race forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up. This is another one of the six governorships Republicans are defending in states Biden won in 2020. Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 0.3 percentage points.

The primary is Aug. 2.

June 30, 2022

Primary results roundup

Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Utah held statewide primaries on Tuesday. New York held primaries for statewide offices and state House districts, and Mississippi and South Carolina held primary runoffs. The results below were current as of Wednesday morning.

Big stories of the night

Illinois' 15th District: Rep. Mary Miller defeated Rep. Rodney Davis 58% to 42%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

Davis has represented Illinois' 13th Congressional District since 2013, and Miller has represented the 15th since 2021. According to data from Daily Kos, 28% of the new 15th District's population comes from the old 13th District (which Davis represents), and 31% comes from the old 15th District (which Miller represents).

Davis is one of eight House members who sought re-election and lost this year. Another, Marie Newman (D), lost in Illinois' 6th on Tuesday in another incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary. Four primaries featuring multiple incumbents have taken place so far, and two are upcoming.

Illinois Governor: Darren Bailey defeated five other candidates with 57% of the vote. Jesse Sullivan was second with 16%. Richard Irvin finished third with 15%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) is running for re-election.

Bailey is a farmer and was elected to the Illinois Senate in 2020. Sullivan is a venture capitalist who has not previously held political office. Irvin is an attorney and mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city. Bailey received $9 million in contributions from businessman Richard Uihlein. Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin donated $50 million to Irvin.

Colorado U.S. Senate: Joe O'Dea defeated Ron Hanks 55.5% to 45.5%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Likely or Solid Democratic. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is running for re-election.

Key issues in the race included abortion and the 2020 election. O’Dea said he did not support overturning Roe v. Wade or total abortion bans, while Hanks supported a total abortion ban. O’Dea said he did not believe the 2020 election was stolen and that Republicans should focus on issues, while Hanks said he believed former President Donald Trump (R) won the 2020 election.

See below to read about Democratic involvement in this and the Illinois gubernatorial race.

Mississippi's 4th District primary runoff: Mike Ezell defeated incumbent Steven Palazzo 54%-46%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

All five candidates who lost in the June 7 primary endorsed Ezell, who was elected Jackson County sheriff in 2014. Palazzo was first elected to the U.S. House in 2010.

Palazzo is under a House Ethics Committee investigation over allegations that he converted campaign funds to pay personal expenses. Palazzo has denied wrongdoing.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special primary: Markwayne Mullin and T.W. Shannon advanced to an Aug. 23 runoff. Mullin received 44% of the vote and Shannon received 18%. Ten candidates ran in the primary. The special election will fill the remainder of retiring incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R) term.

U.S. House

Colorado's 8th District: Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated three other candidates with 41% of the vote. Jan Kulmann finished second with 23%. Colorado gained an eighth congressional district after the 2020 census. Three forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up.

Mississippi's 3rd District primary runoff: Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Michael Cassidy 66% to 34%. Three forecasters rate the general election as Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Colorado Secretary of State: Pam Anderson won with 44% of the vote. Mike O'Donnell finished second with 29% and Tina Peters third with 27%. Anderson views the 2020 presidential election results as legitimate, while Peters and O'Donnell deny their legitimacy. Peters was indicted on charges stemming from an election tampering investigation, where she has denied wrongdoing. Republicans won each election for this office from 1962 to 2018, when Sec. of State Jean Griswold (D) defeated Wayne Williams (R).

Oklahoma Attorney General: Gentner Drummond defeated incumbent John O'Connor 51% to 49%. No Democratic candidates filed to run. Drummond faces Lynda Steele (L) in the general election.

Media analysis

The Associated Press discussed O'Dea's Senate primary win in context of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization:

“

The abortion debate consumed the nation this week, but there was no race where it mattered more than Colorado's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where businessman Joe O'Dea became one of the only abortion-rights-supporting Republican in the nation to win a statewide primary this year.

O'Dea beat back a stiff challenge from state Rep. Ron Hanks, a Trump loyalist who opposed abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother.

O'Dea will face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in November, and if he wins, he would become just the third Senate Republican — and the only male — to support abortion rights.

He said he backs a ban on late-term abortions and government funding of abortions but that the decision to terminate a pregnancy in the initial months is "between a person and their God.

Democrats had spent at least $2.5 million on ads designed to boost O'Dea's opponent by promoting, among other things, that he was "too conservative for backing a complete abortion ban.^[2]

”

The Hill wrote about results in Illinois' and Colorado's primaries where Democrats sought to influence outcomes:

“

Ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, Democrats made clear what kind of Republicans they hoped to run against in November, pouring money into ads boosting far-right candidates with shaky general election prospects.

That strategy ultimately paid off in the GOP primary for Illinois governor, where Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Sen. Darren Bailey, notched a win over a more moderate Republican, former Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin.

Still, it wasn’t an across-the-board success for Democrats.

In Colorado, Republican Heidi Ganahl beat out Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary despite Democratic-aligned groups spending big to tout Lopez’s conservative credentials.

The same is true in the Colorado GOP Senate primary, where Democrats were hoping to boost conservative state Rep. Ron Hanks over businessman Joe O’Dea, a more moderate Republican. O’Dea ultimately clinched the nomination to take on Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

Democrats still have the incumbent advantage in both the Colorado Senate and gubernatorial race. But the failed efforts to lift up hard-line conservatives in the primaries show the limits of money in politics.^[2]

”

The Washington Examiner wrote that Trump-endorsed candidates' victories in Illinois worsens Republicans' general election prospects in the state:

“

Illinois Republicans are under the thumb of insular, combative populists after state Sen. Darren Bailey and Rep. Mary Miller won primaries for governor and Congress, respectively, over appealing conservative pragmatists who would have improved their party’s midterm election prospects in this deep blue state.

Bailey was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Miller, who captured the nomination in Illinois’s newly configured 15th Congressional District, was endorsed by the former president and the Club for Growth, an influential conservative advocacy group based in Washington. So neither qualifies as anti-establishment outsiders.

But Bailey’s victory over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who is black, in the race for the gubernatorial nod and Miller’s defeat of incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis in a House primary forced by redistricting marked the coronation of the Trump-aligned, “MAGA” wing of the party atop the Illinois GOP.^[2]

”

The Chicago Sun-Times' Mark Brown said some factors could benefit Bailey:

“

Now to win a second term, Pritzker must defeat Bailey, a downstate farmer who gained notoriety as a first term state senator by challenging the governor’s COVID-19 restrictions.

Conventional wisdom says Pritzker will do so, marking him as a heavy favorite for November in a Democrat-dominated state that for decades has been hospitable to only moderate Republicans in statewide races.

Bailey is a conservative’s conservative who looks like a candidate from the 1950s with the political beliefs to match and boasts the support of former President Donald Trump, who lost this state by 17 percentage points twice — 944,714 votes in 2016 and 1,025,024 in 2020. Bailey’s path to victory is not readily apparent.

But that’s why elections probably should come with the same disclaimer as the stock market: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Working in Bailey’s favor is the expectation this will be a big Republican year nationally with the usual mid-term presidential backlash compounded by high inflation and gas prices and a worrisome war in Ukraine.

Throw in the fact Democratic voters often don’t turn out in off-year elections and you start to see why Illinois Democrats better not take anything for granted against Bailey.^[2]

”

June 23, 2022

First Michigan gubernatorial poll post-Kelley arrest shows plurality undecided, Kelley among leading candidates

As we wrote last week, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested on June 9 on misdemeanor charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach. A poll the Detroit Free Press commissioned from June 10-13 showed 45% undecided, Kelley with 17%, Garrett Soldano with 13%, Kevin Rinke with 12%, and two others with 5% or less. The margin of error was +/- 4.9 percentage points.

A Target Insyght and Michigan Information and Research Service poll from late May showed 49% undecided. Kelley had 19%, Rinke 15%, Tudor Dixon 9%, and Soldano 6%. The margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points.

The primary is on Aug. 2.

June 16, 2022

Irvin pulls ads from downstate, trails Bailey in recent Illinois gubernatorial poll

Politico reported that Richard Irvin’s campaign pulled a majority of its advertising from outside the Chicago metropolitan area. In addition to its focus on Chicago, the campaign is running ads statewide on Fox News. Spokeswoman Eleni Demertzis said that the campaign was reassessing its ad strategy and was not pulling ads due to a lack of money.

A recent Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ poll showed state Sen. Darren Bailey with a 32%-17% lead over Irvin. Jesse Sullivan was in third with 11%. Twenty-seven percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The poll showed Bailey leading in both the southern part of the state, where he's from, and in the Chicago suburbs. Irvin is the mayor of Aurora, the state’s second-largest city and a suburb of Chicago. In Chicago itself, Irvin and Bailey were roughly tied for second (16% and 13%, respectively) behind Sullivan.

Chicago Sun-Times' Tina Sfondeles wrote that a Bailey victory "would represent a brutal repudiation by Illinois’ Republican voters of Irvin, his array of mainstream party endorsements and, most pointedly, his $50 million benefactor, Chicago hedge fund tycoon Ken Griffin."

In response to the poll, Irvin said, "J.B. Pritzker is spending tens of millions of dollars meddling in the Republican primary to prop up a Republican that he knows he can beat. … A vote for Darren Bailey is a vote for J.B. Pritzker. Period."

Irvin’s campaign has spent $26 million on ads so far this cycle. The Democratic Governors Association has run around $20 million in ads both supporting Bailey and attacking Irvin. People Who Play By The Rules PAC, which radio host Dan Proft created and GOP donor Richard Uihlein financially supports, has also spent $3 million on ads attacking Irvin.

FBI arrests Michigan gubernatorial candidate on Jan. 6 misdemeanor charges

On June 9, federal agents arrested Ryan Kelley, one of five candidates seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Michigan, on charges related to the U.S. Capitol breach during the electoral vote count on Jan. 6, 2021. Kelley was released on a personal recognizance bond, or a promise to appear in court when required, the same day.

The New York Times' Azi Paybarah said Kelley "is the first person running for election in a major state or federal race to be charged in connection with the attack."

The government’s complaint charged Kelley with four misdemeanors: "Knowingly Entering or Remaining in any Restricted Building or Grounds Without Lawful Authority," "Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds," "Knowingly [Engaging] in any Act of Physical Violence Against Person or Property in any Restricted Building or Grounds," and "Willfully [injuring] or [committing] any Depredation Against any Property of the United States."

On June 13, Kelley told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, "There was no crime committed, Tucker, no. … [I] never entered the Capitol building. … I think a lot of Americans see right through this … They understand what the Democrats are up to, and it's not a big deal to them."

The other primary candidates commented on the arrest:

Tudor Dixon: "The timing of this looks a lot like another example of political prosecution by a Democrat Party notorious for weaponizing government."
Ralph Rebandt: "I publicly condemn this outrageous grandstanding, and I am praying that God will expose every evil attempt to silence the voice of American patriots."
Kevin Rinke: "I respect Ryan Kelley and have met him out on the trail. My hope is that the FBI is acting appropriately, because the timing here raises serious questions."
Garrett Soldano: "Biden’s FBI is busy targeting parents and intimidating Republicans while crime runs rampant across the nation."

A few other updates since we last wrote about the disqualification of five candidates over fraudulent signatures on nominating petitions: On June 3, the Michigan Supreme Court denied appeals in lawsuits from James Craig, Perry Johnson, and Michael Markey. Craig said he will run a write-in campaign for the Republican primary. Johnson filed a federal lawsuit seeking to get his name back on the ballot. U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith denied his request.

The primary is on Aug. 2.

June 2, 2022

Michigan gubernatorial candidates file lawsuits in effort to appear on the August primary ballot

Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and Perry Johnson, whom The Detroit News described as top candidates for Michigan’s Republican gubernatorial nomination, sued state election officials last week to get back on the Aug. 2 primary ballot. The state Bureau of Elections said that Craig, Johnson, and three others didn't file enough valid signatures to qualify. On Tuesday, the Michigan Court of Appeals ruled against Johnson, who said he might appeal to the state supreme court.

No decisions had been made in Craig's or Markey’s lawsuits as of Wednesday afternoon.

The bureau found that 36 petition circulators had forged an estimated 68,000 signatures across multiple campaigns’ petitions. The bureau said this was an “unprecedented number of fraudulent petition sheets.”

During the signature review process, election officials identified the circulators’ sheets and checked a sample of roughly 7,000 signatures against the state’s Qualified Voter File. Every signature from that sample was deemed invalid. Following that review, the bureau decided to exclude all signatures those circulators gathered.

Craig, Johnson, and Michael Markey Jr., who also filed a lawsuit, want the state to check every signature on identified circulators' sheets against the voter file rather than excluding all signatures without a full review. Donna Brandenburg, a fourth candidate, also indicated she would pursue legal action but had not made any filings as of May 31.

The state must know by June 3 who is on the primary ballot so it can prepare absentee ballots for military and overseas voters. Five candidates are currently on the primary ballot.

Michigan law requires major party gubernatorial candidates to submit at least 15,000, but no more than 30,000, valid signatures to make the ballot. Candidates must collect at least 100 valid signatures in each of at least half of the state’s congressional districts. The filing deadline was April 19.

Associated Press analysis: High number of 2020 Democratic primary voters participated in 2022 GOP primaries

An Associated Press analysis of early voting data published Tuesday showed that 37,144 people who voted in Georgia's May 24 Republican primaries voted in Democratic primaries in 2020. AP called this "an unusually high number of so-called crossover voters."

Georgia holds open primaries, meaning voters may vote in whichever primary they choose, regardless of their registration (voters may only participate in one party's primary in each election year).

The analysis said these voters supported incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom won primaries over challengers former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed. Kemp received 74% of the vote, avoiding a runoff by more than 280,000 votes. Raffensperger avoided a runoff by around 27,000 votes.

The Associated Press wrote that Country First, a political action committee that Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) created, conducted a mailer and text campaign encouraging Georgia Democrats to support Raffensperger.

Kinzinger, who is not seeking re-election this year, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted for Trump's 2021 impeachment. The Republican National Committee censured Kinzinger in February for his participation in the House select committee investigating the U.S. Capitol breach.

Raffensperger's campaign said that "there are people who stopped voting in Republican primaries after 2016 who are now reengaged."

AP said that "at least a portion of Georgia’s 37,000 party switchers in 2022 had been in the Republican camp before Trump took office. Roughly between 9,000 to 13,000 voted Republican in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 primaries, according to the L2 data."

Country First also weighed in on North Carolina's 11th Congressional District primary, where Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) lost re-nomination by fewer than 1,500 votes. AP wrote that of the 38,000 early and absentee votes in that primary, more than 14% (5,400) were from voters who had participated in the 2020 Democratic primary.

AP found that fewer 2020 Democratic voters participated in the GOP primary in Pennsylvania this year, attributing the gap to the competitive Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and to the state's closed primary system.

Primary rules vary by state and, in some cases, by political party. Twenty-one states have open primaries.

Another 15 states have at least one political party that runs semi-closed primaries, meaning that members of that party and registered voters who are not members of any party may participate. In 11 states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia, parties run closed primaries, meaning only registered party members may participate.

May 26, 2022

Primary results roundup

Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia held their primaries on Tuesday. Texas also held primary runoffs for races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote on March 1.

The big stories of the night: Kemp and Raffensperger win in Georgia, Britt and Brooks advance in Alabama

Georgia Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp defeated former U.S. Sen. David Perdue and three others. Kemp received 74% of the vote to Perdue's 22%. There will be no runoff since Kemp received more than 50% of the vote.

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) were among Kemp's endorsers. Perdue's endorsers included former President Donald Trump (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

The 2020 presidential election results were a subject of debate in the primary, as we've discussed in several issues of The Heart of the Primaries. Perdue said Kemp had not done enough as governor to investigate the results, while Kemp said he took all appropriate actions within his constitutional authority.

Kemp was first elected governor in 2018, defeating Stacey Abrams (D) 50% to 48%. Kemp served as Georgia's secretary of state from 2010 to 2018. Perdue served in the Senate from 2015 to 2021, when Jon Ossoff (D) defeated him in a runoff 50% to 49%.

Kemp will face Abrams again in the Nov. 8 general election. Forecasters rate the general election either as a Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

Georgia Secretary of State: Incumbent Brad Raffensperger defeated three other candidates. Raffensperger received 52% of the vote, and Jody Hice received 33%. Since Raffensperger won more than 50%, there won't be a runoff.

Reuters' Joseph Ax wrote that Raffensperger "has been one of Trump's most frequent targets ever since he refused, emphatically and publicly, to capitulate to the demands of the former president, his fellow Republican, to 'find' enough votes to overturn the results in Georgia's 2020 presidential vote." Trump endorsed Hice.

In January, Raffensperger said, "Congressman Hice, he's been in Congress for several years. He's never done a single piece of election reform legislation. Then he certified his own race with those same machines, the same ballots, and yet for President Trump, he said you couldn't trust that."

At a debate earlier this month, Hice said, "The 'big lie' in all of this is that there were no problems with this past election. This past election was an absolute disaster under the leadership of Brad Raffensperger." Hice objected to the counting of Georgia's electoral votes during the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.

Raffensperger was elected secretary of state in 2018. Hice was elected to the U.S. House in 2014.

Alabama U.S. Senate: Katie Britt and Mo Brooks advanced from a field of six candidates with 45% and 29% of the vote, respectively. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, Britt and Brooks will compete in a June 21 runoff. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby (R), first elected in 1986, did not seek re-election.

Britt was Shelby's chief of staff and the president and CEO of the Alabama Business Council. Britt's campaign website said she was an "advocate for smaller government, modern job growth, constitutional liberties and greater opportunity." Sen. Shelby, Maggie's List, and the Value In Electing Women PAC endorsed Britt.

Brooks has represented Alabama's 5th Congressional District since 2011. Brooks' campaign ads have highlighted his speech at Trump's rally on Jan. 6, 2021, which preceded the U.S. Capitol breach. Brooks' endorsers included Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Trump endorsed Brooks in April 2021 and withdrew that endorsement two months ago. Trump said, "Mo Brooks of Alabama made a horrible mistake recently when he went 'woke' and stated, referring to the 2020 Presidential Election Scam, 'Put that behind you, put that behind you.'"

In response, Brooks said, "I am the only proven America First candidate in this Senate race . . . I am the only candidate who fought voter fraud and election theft when it counted, between November 3 and January 6."

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

Arkansas U.S. Senate: Incumbent John Boozman defeated three other candidates with 58% of the vote. Jake Bequette finished second with 21%. Boozman was first elected to the Senate in 2010. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
Georgia U.S. Senate: Herschel Walker defeated five other candidates with 68% of the vote. Gary Black finished second with 13%. Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) is running for re-election. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Walker. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

U.S. House

Alabama's 5th: Dale Strong and Casey Wardynski advanced from a field of six candidates. Strong received 45% of the vote and Wardynski received 23%. The runoff is on June 21. Incumbent Mo Brooks ran for U.S. Senate rather than for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.

State executives

Alabama Governor: Incumbent Kay Ivey defeated eight other candidates with 55% of the vote. Lynda Blanchard finished second with 19%. Ivey took office in 2017 following Gov. Robert Bentley's (R) resignation. Three forecasters rate the general election Safe or Solid Republican.
Alabama Secretary of State: Jim Zeigler and Wes Allen advanced to a June 21 runoff with 42% and 40% of the vote, respectively. Incumbent John Merrill (R) did not seek re-election.
Arkansas Secretary of State: Incumbent John Thurston defeated Eddie Joe Williams 72%-28%. Thurston was first elected to the position in 2018.
Texas Attorney General runoff: Incumbent Ken Paxton defeated George P. Bush 68%-32%. Paxton was first elected to the position in 2014.
Texas Railroad Commissioner runoff: Incumbent Wayne Christian defeated Sarah Stogner with 65% of the vote. Stogner received 35%. Christian was first elected in 2016.

Media analysis

As of Thursday morning, the results of Tuesday's primaries brought Trump's 2022 primary endorsement record to 94-7 (93%). Media commentary and analysis following the primaries focused on Trump's involvement.

RealClearPolitics' Susan Crabtree wrote that Trump's endorsement record differs for gubernatorial and other types of endorsements:

“

Millions of words were written and much airtime expended handicapping whether Georgia would show that Trump had molded the Republican Party in his own likeness. It didn’t happen Tuesday night, at least not in Georgia. Kemp maintained his early lead in the polls while earning the endorsement of former Vice President Mike Pence along the way and cruising to an easy victory – as did Raffensperger. Pence, largely written off by the media, looked more prescient, if not instantly relevant. In an appearance with Kemp on the eve of the election, Pence called a vote for Kemp a "deafening message" that the Republican Party is "the party of the future," stirring new headlines that he is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2024. … But Georgia is only one state. Trump has racked up a mixed record in contested primaries so far this year while wading into various contests to settle old scores or establish himself as a kingmaker. J.D. Vance, the Yale law school graduate and venture capitalist turned author, undoubtedly has Trump to thank for his win in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary. Likewise, Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor backed by Trump in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate race, leads by just under 1,000 votes in a race against hedge fund executive David McCormick, which appears headed for a recount.

Trump has exercised less influence in gubernatorial races – with recent losses from candidates he endorsed in Nebraska and Idaho. He secured one solid win Tuesday night with his strong backing of Herschel Walker, the former University of Georgia football star and pro football running back who easily won his Republican Senate primary in the same state. … … Other Tuesday primaries also produced mixed results for Trump. Two-term Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who spearheaded a lawsuit that sought to overturn the 2020 election, got a boost from a Trump endorsement. On Tuesday, Paxton easily defeated Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, in a GOP primary runoff.

The lopsided win signaled the triumph of Trumpism over the Bush dynasty. It was particularly notable considering that Paxton, who addressed the pro-Trump crowd in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, is under indictment for alleged securities fraud.

In Alabama, a candidate with Trump’s support before he rescinded it advanced in a Republican runoff to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. Trump supported Rep. Mo Brooks, a staunch conservative congressman, but rescinded his support after Brooks suggested Republicans should look forward to 2022 and 2024 rather than focusing on Trump’s continued 2020 complaints that the election was stolen. Other prominent Republicans, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have continued to back him.^[2]

”

The Hill's Max Greenwood framed Tuesday's results as a win for what he called the GOP establishment:

“

Tuesday was a good night for the non-Trump, establishment wing of the GOP.

The establishment saw its major victory in Kemp’s gubernatorial primary win. Figures like former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) all campaigned for the Georgia governor, pitting themselves up against Trump’s endorsement of Perdue.

Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Sen. John Boozman (R) fended off a number of right-wing challengers including former NFL player Jake Bequette. Boozman’s opponents hit him over his vote to affirm the 2020 election results and remarks that Trump had “some responsibility” for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. However, Boozman had the support of Trump and former Trump officials like Huckabee Sanders.^[2]

”

Washington Examiner's Sarah Westwood said on Fox Business that the candidates who won in Georgia on Tuesday campaigned on Trump's populist stances and that voters did not reject the former president's ideas. Washington Examiner reported on Westwood's interview:

“

While incumbents Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R-GA) did not have former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Westwood told Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo Wednesday that their Republican primary victories are not rejections of "Trumpism."

"I don’t think that’s exactly what we’re seeing because the candidates that did [win], including Gov. Brian Kemp, still ran on the kinds of populist ideas that fueled Trump’s popularity, but what he didn’t do is focus on the 2020 election, and neither did Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who also avoided a runoff," Westwood said.

Westwood noted that Republican voters appear ready to move forward.

"They want to talk about plans for the economy, plans for keeping schools safe, and keeping leftist ideology out of the classrooms," she said. "Those are the sorts of things that, I think, are compelling Republican candidates to the forefront, and we saw that voters were not interested in talking about the past."^[2]

”

Wisconsin Republican Party does not endorse in gubernatorial primary

For the first time since the Wisconsin Republican Party began issuing endorsements in 2009, the party did not endorse a gubernatorial candidate at its annual convention on May 21.

According to the Associated Press’s Scott Bauer, "The party’s endorsement in the governor’s race is important because it unlocks funding from the state party, which can then spend as much as it wants on the winner. Being united is all the more important when facing an incumbent like [Tony Evers (D)] in a race that’s a top priority for Democrats nationally."

At Saturday’s convention, delegates voted to allow a "no endorsement" option for statewide races. To receive the party’s endorsement, a candidate needed at least 60% of delegates' vote. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch received 55% of the vote, and "no endorsement" received 43%. According to Wisconsin Public Radio’s Shawn Johnson, "State Rep. Tim Ramthun received roughly 2.6 percent of the vote. Republicans Kevin Nicholson and Tim Michels came in third and fourth in an earlier round of voting, eliminating them from the final ballot."

Bauer wrote, "[W]ith many Republicans running as outsiders, there [was] more pressure on the party — mostly from [gubernatorial candidate Kevin Nicholson] — to back away from its typical endorsement process. … Nicholson, who is running as an outsider candidate, argued that endorsing a candidate ahead of the primary would create divisions unnecessarily."

Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Paul Farrow said the vote "signaled the grassroots' desire to allow all voices to be heard ahead of the August primary, and we look forward to hearing from the candidates as they continue to make their case in the coming months."

After the vote, Kleefisch said, "Did you see the numbers? There's a clear frontrunner."

Nicholson said, "I very clearly told everybody to vote for 'no endorsement.' ... 'No endorsement' carried the day. We won."

The primary is Aug. 9. Six candidates are currently running. The filing deadline is June 1.

The state party also did not endorse candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, or secretary of state. It did endorse U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for re-election and Orlando Owens (R) for state treasurer.

May 19, 2022

Primary results roundup

Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Oregon held primaries on May 17.

The big stories of the night: Expected Pennsylvania recount, Cawthorn defeated, and more

Pennsylvania Senate: As of Thursday morning, the race remained too close to call. Mehmet Oz led with 31.2% of the vote, while David McCormick received 31.1% and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Seven candidates ran in the primary. Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Under state law, any election with a vote margin within 0.5% is subject to an automatic recount. If applicable, the secretary of state must order the recount by May 26. It must start by June 1 and be completed by June 7.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz in April. Former candidate Sean Parnell, whom Trump initially endorsed before Parnell withdrew, endorsed McCormick. On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette, who rose in recent polls. Three independent race forecasters rate the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

North Carolina's 11th: State Sen. Chuck Edwards defeated incumbent Madison Cawthorn and six others in the Republican primary for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Eight candidates were on the ballot. Edwards received 33.4% of the vote to Cawthorn's 31.9%. Cawthorn is the second U.S. representative to seek re-election and lose a primary this year. Rep. David McKinley (R) lost to Rep. Alexander Mooney (R) in West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District. The two ran in the same district following redistricting. In addition, Rep. Bob Gibbs (R) remained on the ballot in Ohio's 7th District after he unofficially withdrew. Max Miller won that primary. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregon's 5th is trailing challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner as of Thursday morning and may become the third House member to lose a re-election bid.

Trump endorsed Cawthorn on March 31. Following Cawthorn's claims in late March 2022 that Washington lawmakers hold orgies and use cocaine, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) endorsed Edwards.

Three independent forecasters rate the general election either Safe or Solid Republican.

Pennsylvania Governor: State Sen. Doug Mastriano won against eight candidates. Mastriano received 44% of the vote. Former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta was second with 20%.== Mastriano campaigned on his opposition to COVID-19 measures and said he would defend election integrity. Mastriano said voting fraud was prevalent in the 2020 election. On Feb. 15, the U.S. House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach subpoenaed Mastriano, citing a November 2020 tweet and his presence outside the Capitol on the day of the breach. Trump endorsed Mastriano on May 14.

The 2022 primary featured the largest number of candidates in a Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial primary since at least 1978. Incumbent Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited. Forecasters view the general election as a Toss-up or Tilt or Lean Democratic.

Idaho Governor: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little defeated seven other candidates. Little received 53% of the vote to Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin's 32%.

According to the Idaho Press's Betsy Russell, a lieutenant governor hadn't challenged an incumbent governor in a primary in Idaho since 1938. Idaho is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor instead of on the same ticket.

Trump endorsed McGeachin in the primary. The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund and the Idaho Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Little.

Twice in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to COVID-19 measures while Little was out of state. The first banned mask mandates. The second expanded a prohibition against state entities requiring vaccination or testing. Little rescinded both orders when he returned to Idaho.

Independent forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

We've been tracking Trump's 2022 endorsements. The May 17 primary results (so far) bring Trump's primary endorsement record to 73 wins (96%) and 3 losses. Aside from McGeachin and Cawthorn, Nebraska gubernatorial endorsee Charles Herbster lost last week.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. Senate

North Carolina Senate: Ted Budd defeated 13 other candidates with 59% of the vote. Pat McCrory was second with 25%. Trump endorsed Budd, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed McCrory. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) did not run for re-election. Three forecasters rate the general election as Lean Republican.

U.S. House

North Carolina's 13th: Bo Hines defeated seven other candidates with 32% of the vote. DeVan Barbour IV finished second with 23%. The current incumbent, Rep. Ted Budd, ran for the GOP Senate nomination. Three forecasters rate the general election a Toss-up.

Media analysis

The Washington Examiner's Kate Scanlon wrote about Mastriano's perceived gubernatorial general election prospects:

“

Trump offered his endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday after it became clear he was the front-runner in the race. The move was seen as a hedge, as Trump’s selection for the Senate, television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, was in a tight three-way race with businessman David McCormick and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who surged in polling in the final days of the race. Barnette and Mastriano ran campaigns in tandem, endorsing one another.

Some state Republicans were concerned Mastriano would hurt Republicans’ chances of winning not just the governor’s mansion but the Senate race and some congressional contests. They attempted to coalesce the field around former Rep. Lou Barletta, arguing he was better positioned to defeat Shapiro in November.^[2]

”

Politico's David Siders said Mastriano's prospects may be better than some observers think, referencing Trump's performance in the state:

“

Everything about Pennsylvania’s swing state electorate suggests Mastriano is a dead man walking.

Except for this: Lots of Republicans and Democrats alike felt exactly the same way about Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential primary, back when establishment Republicans were praying for anyone other than Trump to win the nomination and some of Hillary Clinton’s advisers were salivating over the prospect of running against Trump. The climate for Democrats in this midterm election year is no better than it was then. In fact, it’s worse. And Pennsylvania is a swing state for a reason. Trump only lost Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020. He won the state four years earlier.^[2]

”

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser described what he saw as both the strength and limitation of Trump's influence in Tuesday's primaries:

“

The [Senate primary in Pennsylvania] is proving another test of Trump's immense sway over the GOP. Sixteen months removed from the White House, the former president remains the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party as he plays a kingmaker’s role in this year’s primaries and repeatedly flirts with another presidential run in 2024.

Trump was a winner in Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial primary, as state Sen. Doug Mastriano bested a crowded field of contenders. Mastriano was already the polling front-runner when the former president endorsed him on Saturday. …

Trump was also a big winner in North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary – in another crucial race in a general election battleground where the GOP’s defending an open seat. …

Trump’s clout couldn’t pull controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorne over the top in the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, however. Even with Trump's backing in the final days heading into the primary, Cawthorne – who’s made plenty of enemies in the GOP in his short year and a half on Capitol Hill – came up short to state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who enjoyed the backing of many of the party’s establishment.

In Idaho, far-right Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin handily lost her bid to oust incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little. Trump endorsed McGeachin last autumn, but did little to actively support her.^[2]

”

Minnesota GOP endorses Scott Jensen for governor

On Saturday, the Minnesota Republican Party endorsed Scott Jensen for governor. According to the Star Tribune, it was "a heated endorsement fight that started with a crowded field of contenders and featured multiple rounds of balloting." Kendall Qualls, who finished second in the voting, announced after the GOP convention that he was dropping out of the race.

Jensen, a physician who served in the state Senate from 2017 to 2021, has campaigned on his opposition to vaccine and mask requirements.

Gov. Tim Walz (D) is seeking re-election. The primaries are Aug. 9.

Former Vice President Mike Pence to campaign for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R) announced he'll be campaigning for Gov. Brian Kemp (R) at a rally on May 23. Pence said Kemp is "one of the most successful conservative governors in America."

Kemp faces former U.S. Sen. David Perdue (R) and three others in the May 24 primary. Trump endorsed Perdue in December, saying, "Kemp has been a very weak Governor—the liberals and RINOs have run all over him on Election Integrity, and more."

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein said Pence's upcoming rally appearance "illustrates a growing proxy fight in Georgia between establishment forces backing Kemp and the Trump loyalists who want to remake the state Republican Party in the former president’s mold." Bluestein said Pence’s endorsement "deepen[ed] a split with Donald Trump as each maneuvers for a possible 2024 White House run."

Pence’s announcement followed news that Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R), Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), and former President George W. Bush (R) would campaign for Kemp. Ricketts and Ducey are co-chairmen of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), and Christie is a former RGA chairman.

May 12, 2022

Primary results roundup

The big stories of the night: Mooney defeats McKinley, Pillen defeats Herbster

West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Alex Mooney defeated Rep. David McKinley and three others. Based on unofficial returns, Mooney received 54% of the vote and McKinley received 36%.

The incumbents ran against one another because the state lost a congressional district following the 2020 census. McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District and Mooney represents 34%.

Mooney's backers included former President Donald Trump (R) and the House Freedom Fund. Gov. Jim Justice (R) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) were among McKinley's supporters. Throughout the primary, Mooney criticized McKinley's vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. McKinley criticized Mooney for previously holding office in Maryland and running unsuccessful campaigns in both Maryland and New Hampshire.

Three independent race forecasters consider the general as Solid or Safe Republican.

Nebraska Governor: University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen defeated Charles Herbster, state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, and six others. Pillen received 34% of the vote to Herbster's 30% and Lindstrom's 26%.

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) endorsed Pillen, while Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) backed Herbster. Herbster also had an endorsement from Trump. The Nebraska Farm Bureau endorsed Pillen.

Herbster chaired Trump's Agriculture and Rural Advisory Committee. As we wrote previously, the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford reported last month that eight women, including state Sen. Julie Slama (R), had accused Herbster of sexual misconduct occurring between 2017 and 2022. Herbster denied the allegations and said they were "part of a greater scheme calculated to try and defeat [his] candidacy." At a May 1 rally, Trump said Herbster was "innocent of these despicable charges."

Pillen said he had a record of resisting critical race theory, while Herbster said Pillen didn't do enough to oppose it. The Nebraska Examiner wrote that "Herbster pointed to Pillen’s 2018 vote, as a University of Nebraska regent, in support of hiring a leader to create a new Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. … Pillen’s campaign said that he was the first elected university regent in the U.S. to stand up against critical race theory and that he is a recognized leader in higher ed on the issue."

Ricketts is term-limited. Major independent observers rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican. Republicans have had trifecta control of Nebraska state government since 1999.

Nebraska State Board of Education District 7: Elizabeth Tegtmeier and incumbent Robin Stevens advanced from the top-two primary. Tegtmeier received 62% of the vote to Stevens' 20%. The third candidate, Pat Moore, received 17%. The race has featured conflict around proposed health education standards the board considered and then voted to pause in 2021. The election is nonpartisan, though the candidates are affiliated with the Republican Party.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. House:

McKinley is the first U.S. House incumbent to lose a primary this cycle. In Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) resigned on March 31 after being found guilty in a federal campaign finance investigation, but his name remained on the ballot. State Sen. Mike Flood (R) won that race.

State executives:

Nebraska held several primaries for state executive offices. District 4 Public Service Commissioner Rod Johnson (R) lost to Eric Kamler (R).

There are three races featuring incumbents that remain too close to call. In one of those races, the Republican incumbent is trailing a challenger as of Thursday morning: Challenger Kevin Stocker (R) has a 3-percentage-point lead over Public Service Commissioner Mary Ridder (R) in District 5.

State legislature:

All eight Republican incumbents seeking re-election to the Nebraska Senate (the state's only legislative chamber) will advance to the general election.

Since 2010, only one incumbent Nebraska state senator has lost in a contested primary: Sen. Nicole Fox (R) in 2016. Ricketts appointed Fox to the seat in 2015 after the Democratic incumbent resigned.

In West Virginia, one incumbent is confirmed to have lost: Incumbent George Miller (R) defeated incumbent Ken Reed (R) in the state House. There are 17 Republican primaries featuring incumbents—16 in the House and one in the Senate—that remain too close to call.

In 2020, 10 GOP state legislators in West Virginia lost primaries. Four lost in 2018.

The following table shows data from 15 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from four states—Indiana, Nebraska, Texas, and West Virginia—where state legislative primaries have taken place.

Media analysis

The Wall Street Journal's Joshua Jamerson said the incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary in West Virginia's 2nd tested Republicans' sentiment on compromise:

“

The West Virginia race offers a glimpse at GOP sentiment toward the infrastructure law and the broader idea of compromising with Democrats. An aide to McKinley, before the results came in, said Mr. Mooney’s criticisms have made traction with voters, causing Mr. McKinley to explain his vote and tout the money being steered toward West Virginia.^[2]

”

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich said that Herbster's loss doesn't indicate a decrease in Trump's influence:

“

[Nebraska's Republican gubernatorial primary] had been seen as a proxy war between Trump and the establishment and moderate wings of the GOP. And thanks to Pillen’s win, the next governor of Nebraska will likely[1] be someone with deep ties to the state’s political and economic establishment who has accepted President Biden’s election, rather than someone who believes that China orchestrated the coronavirus pandemic and spent Jan. 6, 2021, in the Trump war room. …

But at the same time, this loss isn’t evidence that Trump’s influence with the Republican base is slipping. Herbster was far from a perfect candidate … Ultimately, Trump’s endorsement wasn’t powerful enough to drag Herbster to victory, but his endorsement remains an asset in any Republican primary. Just ask Rep. Alex Mooney, who decisively won his primary last night in West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.^[2]

”

May 5, 2022

May 3 primary results roundup

Ohio and Indiana held primary elections on Tuesday. Indiana's ballot included state legislative elections, while Ohio's did not, as redistricting is still underway. Below, you'll find results from marquee GOP primaries, takeaways, and info on incumbents who lost primaries.

The big story of the night: Vance wins U.S. Senate primary in Ohio

Ohio U.S. Senate: J.D. Vance won Ohio's U.S. Senate primary with 32% of the vote. Josh Mandel was second with 24%, and Matt Dolan finished third with 23%. Four other candidates ran.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance in mid-April. Independent polling available before that, from late February and early March, showed Mandel and Mike Gibbons leading. Four of the five candidates with the most votes—except Dolan—campaigned on connections to and support for Trump.

Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Indiana's 9th: In the state's only open House district, Erin Houchin defeated eight other candidates with 37% of the vote. Mike Sodrel was second with 26%. Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) didn't seek re-election. Three forecasters rate the district Safe or Solid Republican.
Ohio's 9th: J.R. Majewski won with 36% of the vote. Craig Riedel was second with 31%. Incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) was first elected in 1982 and is seeking re-election. This is a Toss-up district in race ratings.
Ohio's 13th: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert defeated six other candidates with 29% of the vote. Gregory Wheeler was second with 23%. Gilbert worked on Trump's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Incumbent Tim Ryan (D) is running for U.S. Senate. This is a Toss-up or Tilt Republican district in ratings.

State executive

Ohio Governor: Incumbent Mike DeWine won with 48%. Jim Renacci was second with 28%. DeWine's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an issue in the race. Renacci said DeWine overreacted with restrictions, while DeWine said he acted in the best interest of Ohioans.
Ohio Secretary of State: Incumbent Frank LaRose defeated John Adams 65% to 35%.

Defeated incumbents

U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07) was the only Republican congressional incumbent to (technically) lose in Tuesday's primaries. Gibbs announced on April 6 that he wasn't running for re-election. But because Gibbs already qualified, he remained on the primary ballot.

In Indiana, six GOP state legislators—five representatives and one senator—lost primaries.

Three Republican incumbents—one in the Indiana Senate and two in the Indiana House—were defeated in incumbent-on-incumbent primaries resulting from redistricting.
Three Republican incumbents in the state House lost to non-incumbent challengers.

In 2020, one Indiana GOP legislator—a state representative—lost in a primary. In 2018, two GOP incumbents—a state senator and a representative—lost primaries.

The following shows data from 14 states for which we have post-filing deadline information and from two states—Texas and Indiana—where state legislative elections have taken place.

Media analysis

Media analysis following the May 3 GOP primaries has largely focused on Trump's influence in Ohio. We present a few perspectives on that below, in addition to a takeaway from Indiana's state legislative races.

Politico's David Siders and Adam Wren said Vance's victory was a victory for Trump and that Dolan's performance did not suggest good prospects for non-Trump-aligned candidates in 2024:

“

People in Trump’s orbit are preparing for his dominion over the GOP to take a hit in primaries scheduled for later this month. The candidates he’s supporting for governor in Georgia and Idaho are both running far behind more establishment-minded incumbents, and several other Trump-endorsed candidates are in toss-up races. Trump isn’t likely to win them all.

But J.D. Vance’s victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Trump. Unlike in the Texas primaries, where the former president backed a raft of successful Republicans — but mostly made safe choices — Trump took a risk on Vance. … With Vance, Mandel, Timken and Gibbons clobbering each other over who was the Trumpiest, Dolan, who distanced himself from Trump, appeared to have space open to him with a non-MAGA hardliner crowd. … But he didn’t win. Or even come close. …

Dolan isn’t a pure test of the anti-Trump Republican. He was a supporter of Trump, after all, voting twice for the former president. But it’s the closest thing we’ve seen this election cycle to a different prototype for 2024 — and it ended poorly for the candidate tied least tightly to Trump.^[2]

”

CNN said that Ohio's Senate primary result attests to Trump's endorsement power in open primaries:

“

Vance's victory underscored the former President's role as the kingmaker in the Republican Party. Though it's not clear whether Trump will succeed in his effort to oust incumbent Republicans he believes have wronged him, Ohio's results demonstrated that in open-seat races, his endorsement might be the most important factor.^[2]

”

ABC News' Brittany Shepherd said DeWine's win was slightly unfavorable for Trump:

“

Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who rose in popularity after imposing more aggressive coronavirus restrictions in his state, won the Republican bid for reelection and defeated Trump-affiliated candidate Jim Renacci (who was endorsed by Trump in 2018, when Renacci ran and lost a Senate bid.) DeWine's win means a slight loss for the former president, who suggested DeWine needed to be primaried for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Even though Trump steered clear of a formal endorsement, his apparent disdain for the incumbent governor is no secret and his opponents differed little from Trump in campaign talking points, which calls into question the lasting power of Trump's influence.^[2]

”

The Associated Press' Tom Davies and Casey Smith said Indiana state legislative candidates frustrated over COVID-19 restrictions and other issues performed poorly on Tuesday:

“

Frustrated Indiana conservatives fell short in most primary races Tuesday in their drive to push the Republican-controlled state Legislature further to the right, and two of the movement’s leaders lost their reelection bids.

The roughly two dozen so-called liberty candidates saw only a few victories in Republican legislative races across the state, with one defeating a 10-term incumbent in northern Indiana and two others winning nominations for GOP-leaning open seats.

A few races remained uncalled late Tuesday, but more than 10 incumbent lawmakers overcame challenges from candidates who argued that the Legislature hasn’t been aggressive enough in attempting to ban abortion, enhancing gun rights and overturning COVID-19 restrictions that were ordered by Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.^[2]

”

Michigan GOP committee member resigns over state party endorsements

Tony Daunt resigned as a state GOP committee member days after the party's endorsement convention.

Daunt said in his resignation letter that the "feckless, cowardly party 'leaders' have made the election here in Michigan a test of who is the most cravenly loyal to Donald Trump and relitigating the results of the 2020 cycle."

The party endorsed Kristina Karamo for secretary of state and Matt DePerno for attorney general. Both candidates have questioned the results of the 2020 election and have endorsements from Trump. In the second round of voting at the convention, DePerno got 54% to former state House Speaker Tom Leonard's 46%. Karamo got 67% in the first round, followed by state Rep. Beau LaFave's 19% and Chesterfield Township Clerk Cindy Berry's 13%.

Daunt serves on the Michigan Board of State Canvassers. He previously served as logistics director for the state party and as executive director of the Michigan Freedom Fund, a nonprofit with funding from the DeVos family.

After the convention, state party chairman Ron Weiser said, "We’re coming out united and ready to move forward and win in the fall."

Michigan is a Democratic triplex, meaning its governor, secretary of state, and attorney general are all Democrats.

The primaries are Aug. 2.

Trump defends Nebraska gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster against accusations of sexual assault

We wrote a couple of weeks ago that Nebraska state Sen. Julie Slama (R) and seven other women accused gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster of sexual assault. The Nebraska Examiner first published the allegations on April 14.

Former President Trump, who endorsed Herbster in October 2021, spoke at a rally for Herbster in Greenwood, Nebraska, on May 1. Trump said, "Charles is a fine man and he is innocent of these despicable charges, by the way Charles welcome to politics. ... These are malicious charges to derail him long enough that the election can go by before the proper defense can be put forward."

Herbster filed a defamation lawsuit against Slama on April 22. Herbster said, "As set forth in my lawsuit, the false accusations and attacks on my character are part of a greater scheme calculated to try and defeat my candidacy."

Slama countersued Herbster for sexual battery on April 25. Slama’s attorney said, "We will not permit Charles Herbster to file a frivolous, bad faith lawsuit that purports to cast doubt on Senator Slama’s account of her sexual assault, use his national media megaphone to herald the existence of that lawsuit for his own gain, but then take no steps to actually serve it and subject himself to the legal accountability such service would trigger."

On April 26, the Herbster campaign released an ad that said, "Clarence Thomas. Then Brett Kavanaugh. Lies stacked up to ruin them. Now [gubernatorial candidate Jim Pillen] and [incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts] are doing it to Charles W. Herbster. The facts? Herbster's accuser was employed by Ricketts. Her husband and sister? Ricketts gave them jobs too. And even after the supposed incident, she kept contacting Herbster. Texts, calls, meetings, even invited Herbster to her destination wedding. Jim Pillen's attack on Herbster: built on lies."

Slama's attorney said the ad "promotes a far-ranging conspiracy theory that other people are behind well-corroborated reports of sexual assault and harassment of 8 women and at least 3 on-the-record witness accounts."

Days before Herbster released the ad, Ricketts said, "It is ridiculous to suggest that I or anyone else conspired to talk eight women and even more witnesses to make up stories about Charles Herbster. ... It’s just not plausible." In January, Ricketts endorsed Pillen in the May 10 gubernatorial primary.

April 28, 2022

2020 election conflict in spotlight at first Georgia gubernatorial debate

Gubernatorial candidate David Perdue opened the first GOP primary debate on April 24 with, "First off folks, let me be very clear tonight. The election of 2020 was rigged and stolen."

In the exchanges that followed, Perdue detailed his criticisms of incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp's handling of the state's 2020 election results. Kemp defended his actions, saying Perdue was blaming others for his own election loss in the January 2021 U.S. Senate runoff.

Kemp affirmed Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's (R) certification of the 2020 election results after two statewide recounts.

Perdue said Kemp didn't investigate claims of voter fraud, didn't call a special session of the legislature to investigate the election, and didn't stop a consent decree. Perdue said the consent decree "invalidated all voter ID law … and allowed fraudulent ballots to be accepted into the race."

The consent decree referred to a settlement that Raffensperger, the Georgia Democratic Party, and others not including Kemp signed in March 2020. The decree details a procedure for reviewing absentee ballot envelope signatures and states that election officials must give voters notice of and opportunity to cure rejected ballots either within three business days or by the next business day if the ballot is "rejected on or after the second Friday prior to Election Day."

Kemp said that he "followed the law and the constitution," that his office referred fraud allegations it thought had merit to authorities that have subpoena powers, and that he didn't have anything to do with the consent decree. Kemp also said, "I didn’t say there wasn’t problems in this election. Look, I was as frustrated as anybody else. … But the point is a special session would have done nothing to solve this problem."

Perdue and Kemp are among five candidates in the May 24 GOP primary. They were the only two to meet WSB-TV's debate inclusion threshold of receiving at least 10% support in the average of seven independent polls.

Donations, opposition ads increase in Illinois gubernatorial primary

State Sen. Darren Bailey's Illinois gubernatorial campaign got a big donation last week, and recent opposition ads against him and challenger Richard Irvin highlight past statements from each candidate.

Republican donor Richard Uihlein gave Bailey's campaign $2.5 million on April 20. Uihlein also gave $1 million to Bailey’s campaign in February and $1 million to the People Who Play by the Rules PAC in March. The PAC recently aired an ad opposing Irvin, mayor of Aurora.

The Chicago Tribune’s Rick Pearson reported that Uihlein’s first donation to Bailey’s campaign came shortly after Citadel founder Ken Griffin donated $20 million to Irvin.

According to The Hill’s Reid Wilson, the 2018 Illinois gubernatorial election was the "most expensive gubernatorial campaign in American history," with current incumbent J.B. Pritzker (D) spending $175 million and then-incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) spending $79 million.

On April 18, the People Who Play by the Rules PAC released an ad quoting Irvin saying in March 2021, "I support Black Lives Matter strongly and passionately." The ad's narrator says, "Black Lives Matter promotes looting our cities, defunding the police, and deconstructing the nuclear family."

Irvin’s campaign website says he "defeated the local ‘Defund the Police’ movement" while mayor of Aurora and "opposed the criminals and looters who damaged property and harmed cities during the riots in 2020. … And he made sure the law-breakers were arrested." In his January campaign launch video, Irvin said, "I believe that all lives matter. Every family should be safe."

On April 20, Irvin’s campaign began airing an ad that shows Bailey saying in March 2022 that he "might have voted for Biden." The ad's narrator says, "True conservatives don't vote for Biden. Darren Bailey did."

In an April 7 video, Bailey said, "In 2008, conservative Rush Limbaugh, myself, and thousands of other Republicans helped bring chaos to the Democratic primary to help Republicans in November. ... I’m a lifelong Republican who has never supported a Democrat." Bailey has also said he voted in the Democratic presidential primary in 2008 "to make sure that Obama and Hillary didn’t get elected."

The primary is on June 28.

April 21, 2022

Nebraska gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster is accused of sexual assault and denies allegations

On April 14, the Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford reported that eight women, including state Sen. Julie Slama (R), say gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster sexually assaulted them between 2017 and 2022.

According to Sanderford, "Slama confirmed that as she walked by Herbster, he reached up her skirt, without her consent, and touched her inappropriately. ... [Six women] said Herbster groped them on their buttocks, outside of their clothes, during political events or beauty pageants. ... A seventh woman said Herbster once cornered her privately and kissed her forcibly."

Sanderford said the Examiner corroborated each account with either at least one witness or at least one individual who was told about the alleged incident on the same day it was said to have occurred. As of April 19, three people in addition to Slama had spoken on the record.

Herbster responded, "These libelous accusations are 100% false. For over thirty years, I’ve employed hundreds of people. I've respected and empowered women to run my company, my farm and now my campaign. Not once has my integrity EVER been challenged in this manner. It's only after I've threatened the stranglehold the establishment has on this state do they stoop to lies this large. This story is a ridiculous, unfounded dirty political trick being carried out by Pete Ricketts and Jim Pillen."

In an April 15 Facebook post, Herbster wrote, "I will not back down. I am a fighter just like Justice Kavanaugh and President Donald J. Trump. I will fight for my character and reputation."

Trump endorsed Herbster, who served as the chairman of Trump's Agriculture and Rural Advisory Committee, in October. On April 19, Trump announced he would hold a rally for Herbster in Greenwood, Nebraska, on April 29.

Other gubernatorial primary candidates responded to the allegations.

University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen said, "Sexually assaulting women should be disqualifying for anyone seeking to serve as a leader."

State Sen. Brett Lindstrom said, "I was disgusted reading the stories of my colleague, Senator Slama, and the other brave women who came forward today. ... We need to listen to and stand with the victims."

Former state Sen. Theresa Thibodeau said, "The allegations outlined against Charles Herbster are morally repugnant and in stark contrast to the principles of basic human decency. ... I unequivocally support Senator Julie Slama and the seven brave young women who shared their stories."

On April 15, Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Dan Welch said, "Without casting judgement in this matter, the NEGOP condemns all forms of sexual assault and believes any allegation must be investigated appropriately. … Per the NEGOP Constitution, the party remains neutral in the Governor’s primary. … The NEGOP will support our nominees for the general election."

The primary is scheduled for May 10.

Recent polling and PAC spending in Georgia

Former President Donald Trump's leadership PAC donated to a super PAC opposing incumbent Brian Kemp in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial primary. Recent polling shows Kemp leading the race.

Save America PAC, which Trump formed shortly after the 2020 general elections, gave $500,000 to the super PAC Get Georgia Right. The latter group ran a TV ad saying Kemp "dismissed concerns about voter fraud in the 2020 election."

Politico's Alex Isenstadt said this was Save America PAC's first major midterm spending: "While Trump has cut small checks to favored candidates and spent money to stage rallies, he had yet to direct a sizable sum toward bolstering a particular contender."

A recent Landmark Communications poll showed Kemp leading David Perdue 52% to 28%, with 10% undecided. The poll was conducted April 14 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Trump has been critical of both Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) for certifying the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia. Trump endorsed Perdue in the gubernatorial race and Jody Hice in the secretary of state race.

In the secretary of state GOP primary, the Landmark poll showed Jody Hice leading Raffensperger 35% to 18%, with 33% of respondents undecided.

An Emerson College poll from early April showed Kemp leading Perdue 43% to 32% and Raffensperger leading Hice 29% to 26%. The poll had a credibility interval (similar to a margin of error) of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

In Georgia, if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in an election, a runoff is held between the top two vote-getters. The primaries are set for May 24.

March 31, 2022

RGA releases second pro-Kemp ad, Trump campaigns for Perdue in Georgia

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) released its second ad supporting Gov. Brian Kemp, and former President Trump held a rally supporting primary challenger David Perdue.

RGA Georgia 2022 PAC, a Republican Governors Association (RGA) affiliate, released its second ad in the primary. As we wrote in February, this is the first time the RGA is airing ads supporting an incumbent facing a primary challenger. The second ad buy, at $350,000, brings the group's spending in the primary so far to $850,000.

The ad criticizes Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams, saying, "While some traveled the world seeking fame, promoting their businesses, putting themselves first, Georgia had a leader here at home working hard, solving problems, getting results: Governor Brian Kemp." Kemp defeated Abrams 50.2% to 48.8% in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

Kemp faces Perdue and three others in the primary. Perdue served in the U.S. Senate from 2015 to 2021, when he lost his re-election bid to Jon Ossoff 49.4% to 50.6% in a runoff election. In the 2020 general election, Perdue received 49.7%—less than the majority needed to win outright—to Ossoff's 47.9%.

Trump held a "Save America Rally" in Commerce, Georgia, on March 26, featuring Perdue and other candidates, including Senate candidate Herschel Walker and Georgia's 14th Congressional District Rep. Greene, as speakers.

Trump said at the rally, "Before we can defeat the Democrat socialists and communists ... we first have to defeat the RINO sellouts and the losers in the primaries this spring."

Perdue said at the rally that "our elections in 2020 were absolutely stolen." Kemp certified the presidential election results after two statewide recounts.

The primary is scheduled for May 24.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) officially endorses in GOP gubernatorial primary

Term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R) made his endorsement of gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schulz (R) official on March 22.

Schulz served as director of the state Department of Commerce under Hogan. Hogan said, "There’s only one candidate who has the experience, the ability, and the desire to keep moving Maryland forward, to keep changing Maryland for the better, who can get the job done and can continue the legacy."

In November, we wrote about Hogan’s support for Schulz and Trump's endorsement of state Del. Dan Cox in the primary. Trump said on Nov. 22 that Cox was "MAGA all the way—unlike his opponent, Kelly Schulz, who was handpicked by her 'boss,' RINO Larry Hogan, who has been terrible for our Country and is against the America First Movement."

Cox currently serves as one of three District 4 representatives in the state House of Delegates. Schulz previously held one of the three District 4 seats.

Hogan has endorsed Republicans around the country who have been critical of Trump and, in some cases, who face primary challengers Trump endorsed.

The Associated Press reported that Hogan planned to host events for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)—one of seven GOP senators who voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial—and Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.)—one of the 10 House GOP members who voted to impeach. Hogan has also fundraised for Brian Kemp in Georgia.

Maryland's primary is scheduled for July 19.

March 24, 2022

Ricketts, Foley split on gubernatorial endorsements in Nebraska

On March 15, Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) endorsed rancher Charles Herbster in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Foley said, "Charles is a job creator who has invested in this state. He is rooted in our conservative values and will rely on those values when leading our great state." Trump endorsed Herbster in October.

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R), who is term-limited, endorsed University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen in January. Following Foley’s endorsement of Herbster, Ricketts said, "I was very disappointed with the lieutenant governor’s choice. … I think it’s incredibly poor judgment on his part." Ricketts said Herbster had put jobs in a different state and paid property taxes late and that Herbster would have difficulty recruiting businesses to the state.

Herbster’s campaign said that he "leads in the polls and leads the charge to be the next Governor of Nebraska. Like many of us, he wishes the current Governor, Pete Ricketts, would spend his remaining time in the office helping the state and staying out of politics."

Pillen said, "It's disappointing, but not surprising, that Mike Foley is endorsing Charles Herbster. He was pretty unhappy when I turned down his request to be my lieutenant governor. Herbster has always thrown his money around to buy political influence and favor. Nebraskans know what they want in a governor, and it is not backroom politics."

Foley said, "The Pillen campaign and other campaigns have reached out to me and that’s fine. I’m flattered by that. And we’ve had conversations with other candidates and I’ve just decided Charles Herbster is the best choice and anything beyond that would be a mischaracterization of that arrangement."

Herbster and Pillen recently clashed on Pillen's record as a regent. Herbster said, "Because of his liberal ideology and weak leadership, Pillen is the reason the university is indoctrinating our students. … Jim Pillen's lack of action and courage on critical race theory when Nebraska students needed him the most is shocking."

Pillen's campaign manager Kenny Zoeller said, "Jim Pillen was the first elected regent in America to take a stand against critical race theory. … Jim has been a nationally recognized leader in the fight against CRT in higher education and in our schools."

Nine candidates are running in the May 10 primary.

Ricketts and Foley also endorsed different candidates in the Republican primary for Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District: Ricketts is backing Mike Flood, while Foley supports incumbent Jeff Fortenberry.

March 10, 2022

Jeanne Ives endorses Darren Bailey for Illinois governor

Former state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) endorsed Darren Bailey in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Politico wrote that Ives' backing gives Bailey "an edge that could only be upped if Donald Trump were to endorse" and "a boost in conservative credibility." Ives challenged then-Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in the 2018 GOP primary, losing 49%-52%.

In her endorsement, Ives mentioned candidate Richard Irvin and his running mate, Avery Bourne: "Republican voters need to be warned. The same people who ran Rauner’s campaign backed by a billion-dollar checkbook are now running the Irvin-Bourne race backed by the same billion-dollar checkbook."

Hedge fund founder Ken Griffin gave $20 million to Irvin's campaign in February. According to the State Journal-Register, Griffin donated $36 million to Rauner's campaigns.

Bailey, a state senator, is emphasizing economic policy, saying he'll lower taxes and spending. Bailey calls Irvin a Democrat, saying Irvin won't say what his position is on abortion and accusing him of "imposing Draconian mandates in Aurora" amid the pandemic. Bailey filed a lawsuit challenging Gov. J.B. Pritzker's (D) stay-at-home order.

Irvin, the mayor of Aurora and a former prosecutor, is emphasizing crime policy, saying he "defeated the local ‘Defund the Police’ movement" as Aurora mayor. He also says he prevented tax increases in the city and balanced its budgets.

The primary is scheduled for June 28.

Gov. Brian Kemp places $4.2 million ad buy in Georgia

Gov. Brian Kemp placed a $4.2 million initial TV ad buy as he faces former Sen. David Perdue and at least two others in the GOP primary.

The Hill's Max Greenwood reported, "The ad buy is enormous. Put in context, Kemp’s campaign is spending more than four times the amount that Perdue’s campaign had on hand at the end of January."

The first spots will run statewide on March 30.

Ads have been a big storyline in the primary so far. As we wrote last month, the Republican Governors Association released a pro-Kemp ad—the group's first-ever TV ad supporting an incumbent who's facing a primary challenger. Perdue's first ad featured former President Donald Trump (R). Trump endorsed Perdue in the race after clashing with Kemp on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia.

The primary is scheduled for May 24.

Gov. Kristi Noem calls for Steve Haugaard censure, S.D. GOP condemns his comments about woman with drug addiction

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem called for state Rep. Steve Haugaard's censure over comments Haugaard made during a March 3 floor debate on a marijuana bill. Haugaard, who is challenging Noem in the gubernatorial primary, said he knew a woman who used marijuana and went on to use meth. Haugaard referred to the woman as "kind of a wrung-out wh*re, because she has prostituted herself for drugs over and over again."

Haugaard said after, "I really do apologize to those that I offended by using that word, but anybody here in the Capitol that knows me knows I do not use foul language."

Noem said, "I am disappointed and appalled by the inappropriate and offensive language used today on the House floor by Rep. Haugaard. … I'm calling on the Speaker and the House to take a stand against this irresponsible and abusive behavior by formally reprimanding and censuring Mr. Haugaard."

On March 4, the South Dakota GOP's executive board condemned Haugaard's comments, saying, "The language used by Rep. Haugaard to depict a Native American woman and the results of her drug addiction do not reflect the values of the Republican Party." State Rep. Tamara St. John (R) said Haugaard told her the remark was about a Native American woman.

Noem and Haugaard recently clashed over policy on medication sometimes used to perform abortions. On Feb. 28, Haugaard's proposed ban on medication used for the purposes of abortion stalled in the state Senate Health and Human Services Committee. The committee passed Noem's legislation stating that the second drug used in medication abortions may only be dispensed in person. The state legislature passed Noem's bill.

The primary is scheduled for June 7.

March 3, 2022

Texas results roundup

Texas held the nation's first midterm primaries on Tuesday. Races in which no candidate received a majority of the vote are headed to May 24 runoffs. Here's a roundup of results from marquee Republican primaries, current as of Thursday morning.

The big stories: Taylor suspends campaign, Paxton and Bush go to runoff

Texas' 3rd Congressional District: Incumbent Van Taylor and Keith Self advanced to a runoff with 48.7% and 26.5%, respectively. Taylor suspended his campaign on Wednesday, saying, "About a year ago, I made a horrible mistake that has caused deep hurt and pain among those I love most in this world. … I had an affair, it was wrong, and it was the greatest failure of my life."

The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek said that "no other race in Texas this year seems to more reflect the debate within the GOP over the fallout from Jan. 6." Taylor was one of two House Republicans from Texas—and 35 House Republicans nationwide—who voted last May to establish a commission to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol breach. Self, a former Collin County judge, criticized Taylor's vote. Five candidates ran in the primary.

Attorney General: Incumbent Ken Paxton and state Land Commissioner George P. Bush advanced to a runoff with 42.7% and 22.8%, respectively. Former state supreme court Justice Eva Guzman received 17.5% and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, 17%.

Svitek and the Tribune's James Barragán wrote during the primary, "Gohmert and Paxton are … vying for the same conservative voters who are further right than the establishment GOP. Bush and Guzman appear to be fighting over traditional, pro-business Republicans."

A grand jury indicted Paxton on securities fraud charges in 2015, and former aides have accused him of bribery and abuse of office. Paxton has denied wrongdoing in both cases.

Other marquee primary results

U.S. House

Texas' 1st: Nathaniel Moran won with 62.9%. Joe McDaniel was second with 24.3%. Four candidates ran. The district is open—incumbent Rep. Louie Gohmert (R) ran for attorney general.
Texas' 8th: This race was too close to call as of Thursday morning. Morgan Luttrell led with 52.2%. Christian Collins was in second with 22.3%. Eleven candidates ran. Incumbent Rep. Kevin Brady (R) didn't seek re-election.
Texas' 15th: Monica De La Cruz Hernandez won with 56.5%. Mauro Garza was second with 15.3%. Nine candidates ran. The district is open—incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) is running for re-election in the 34th District after redistricting.
Texas' 38th: Wesley Hunt won with 55.3%. Mark Ramsey had 30.2%. This is a newly created district following redistricting.

State executive

Governor: Incumbent Greg Abbott won with 66.4%. Next were Allen West and Don Huffines with 12.3% and 12.0%, respectively. Eight candidates ran in the GOP primary.
Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Sid Miller won with 58.5%. James White was second with 31.1%. Three candidates ran.

State legislature

State legislative: There were 62 Republican state legislative primaries. Nine were for the state Senate and 53 were for the state House. Two incumbent senators and 30 incumbent representatives faced primaries. No incumbent Republicans lost primaries on Tuesday.
- Both incumbent senators in contested primaries won on Tuesday. No Republican state senator has lost in a primary or runoff since 2014.
- Four of five state Senate candidates Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) endorsed won primaries. The fifth is headed to a runoff.
- There are three runoffs in the House with GOP incumbents—in districts 12, 60, and 85. Two GOP House incumbents were in primaries that haven't been called yet (districts 64 and 91). In 2020, no GOP House incumbents lost in primaries, and two lost in runoffs.

Media analysis

The Texas Tribune's Joshua Fechter said the following about primary results in terms of incumbents and challengers:

“

Texas’ top Republicans mostly fended off challengers in the GOP primary Tuesday. Meanwhile, a slate of progressives made inroads in Democratic primaries for Congress — but fell short of their goal of an immediate sweep that would reshape the Texas’ U.S. House delegation. …

Meanwhile, the status quo was largely preserved in the Texas Legislature. No state Senate incumbents lost their seats Tuesday night. In the House, one sitting Democrat lost and no incumbent Republicans were knocked out, though a few were forced into runoffs. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dade Phelan both saw the vast majority of their favored candidates win primaries in the chambers they preside over.^[2]

”

FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley said the following about the relation between the primary results and House incumbents' votes on certifying the 2020 election results:

“

I mentioned earlier tonight the strong hold that Trump continues to have on the GOP in Texas (many Republicans in the state have a popular view of the former president), and indeed, there were many strong performances by Republican incumbents who voted against certifying the 2020 election in the U.S. House — every one handily won renomination or looked to be on their way in a couple of uncalled races.

But in an example of how our politics are often full of contradictions, most Republicans who voted to certify the election did well, too — except Rep. Van Taylor … Taylor faced a number of attacks for his vote to certify the 2020 election results and for his support of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.^[2]

”

February 17, 2022

Republican Governors Association releases pro-Kemp ad in Georgia

RGA Georgia 2022 PAC, an affiliate of the Republican Governors Association (RGA), spent $500,000 on an ad supporting Gov. Brian Kemp. The Hill's Max Greenwood wrote, "While the RGA typically backs incumbent GOP governors, the spot for Kemp marks the first time that the group is financing a TV ad in a primary to support an incumbent facing a Republican challenger."

Kemp faces former Sen. David Perdue and at least two other candidates in the May 24 GOP primary. Perdue has former President Donald Trump's endorsement and released an ad featuring Trump last week. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein wrote that the RGA ad "underscores a growing proxy war between mainstream GOP groups and Trump’s allies."

The RGA ad criticizes President Joe Biden on spending, inflation, and illegal immigration and says, "Georgia has a proven conservative leader fighting back. … Kemp cut taxes, creating one of America’s fastest-growing economies and good-paying jobs. And Governor Kemp sent the National Guard to the border to help stop the illegal drugs flooding into our communities."

In Perdue's ad, Trump says on camera, "The Democrats walked all over Brian Kemp. He was afraid of Stacey 'The Hoax' Abrams. Brian Kemp let us down."

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser wrote that Trump appeared to refer to legislation the GOP-controlled legislature passed and Kemp signed in 2019: "Some of the provisions, which were backed by Democrats, addressed concerns raised during Kemp’s 2018 victory over Abrams regarding how nonwhite voters were treated." Steinhauser said the law changed the process for rejecting absentee ballots and removing people from voter rolls and "also strengthened election security by adding Georgia to a 25-state electronic registration information center that is used for the purpose of tracking voters who move in and out of state to keep the voting rolls clear."

Trump and Kemp clashed over the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia, which Kemp certified.

Perdue lost his Senate re-election bid to Jon Ossoff 49.4% to 50.6% in a January 2021 runoff election.

Abrams is running in the Democratic primary for governor. Kemp defeated Abrams 50.2% to 48.8% in the 2018 gubernatorial election.

Texas roundup: Polling and endorsements two weeks out

The first midterm primaries are on March 1. Runoffs in Texas are scheduled for May 24 for races in which no candidate receives more than 50% of the primary vote. The Dallas Morning News and the Houston Chronicle editorial boards recently issued endorsements, and the University of Texas released a poll on Feb. 14. Here's a roundup of polling and endorsements in marquee state executive and legislative races.

Polling

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll surveyed 375 likely GOP primary voters between Jan. 28 and Feb. 7. The poll's margin of error was +/- 5 percentage points.

Gubernatorial primary: Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads with 60%. Former state GOP Chair Allen West and former state Sen. Don Huffines were about tied with 15% and 14%. No other candidate received 10%.
Attorney General primary: Incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 47%. Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush had 21%, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman had 16%, and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert had 15%.

Endorsements

Gubernatorial primary: The Houston Chronicle and The Dallas Morning News endorsed Abbott.
- Other noteworthy endorsements in this primary include Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for Abbott, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for Huffines, and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn for Allen West.

Attorney General primary: The Houston Chronicle and The Dallas Morning News endorsed Guzman in the GOP attorney general primary, mentioning Paxton's 2015 indictment on counts related to securities fraud violations and claims that Paxton used the office to benefit a political donor, which led to an FBI investigation. Paxton has denied wrongdoing in both cases.
- Trump endorsed Paxton. U.S. Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) endorsed Bush.

Senate District 11 primary: The Houston Chronicle endorsed Bob Mitchell in the state Senate District 11 GOP primary. Mitchell is one of four candidates in the open race, including Mayes Middleton, who, according to Transparency USA data, raised more than any other Texas state legislative candidate during the reporting period from July 1 to Dec. 31. Middleton has raised $1.9 million to Mitchell's $55,000 (in addition to $50,000 in loans). The Dallas Morning News didn't endorse in this race.
- Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) and Trump endorsed Middleton.

February 10, 2022

Beyond endorsements, Trump works to shape candidate fields

Last week, Bernie Moreno dropped out of Ohio's GOP primary for Senate citing a conversation with Trump. This week, Vernon Jones switched from Georgia's gubernatorial race to a U.S. House bid after a meeting with Trump.

Moreno said, "After talking to President Trump we both agreed this race has too many Trump candidates and could cost the MAGA movement a conservative seat." Trump has not endorsed in the May 3 primary, which includes businessman Mike Gibbons, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former state party chair Jane Timken, and author J.D. Vance.

Upon exiting Georgia's gubernatorial primary, Jones endorsed David Perdue. Trump had already endorsed Perdue against incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp. CNN reported that Trump met with Jones and offered "his endorsement in a congressional contest if Jones agrees to exit the GOP primary for governor to instead run for Congress, according to two people familiar with the matter." This week, Trump endorsed Jones' bid for the 10th Congressional District. Georgia's primary is set for May 24.

Last week, we wrote that former Rep. Mark Walker announced he'd stay in the Senate race in North Carolina after his campaign said Trump offered to endorse him if he switched to a House bid. Trump endorsed Ted Budd in the May 17 Senate primary.

Pennsylvania State Committee votes not to endorse any statewide candidate at winter meeting

The Pennsylvania Republican State Committee did not endorse any candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, or U.S. Senate at its winter meeting on Feb. 5. Thirteen candidates have announced GOP gubernatorial primary bids and 13 have declared for the Senate primary. Both elections are open—Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited and Sen. Pat Toomey (R) isn't running for re-election.

Pennlive.com's Jan Murphy wrote that the last time the Republican Party did not endorse a gubernatorial candidate was "in 1978 when the party had a pool of strong candidates for an open governor’s seat. Voters ended up electing Dick Thornburgh as the party nominee in the primary and he went on to win the governorship that November."

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jonathan Tamari wrote, "Several Pennsylvania Republicans grumbled privately that the failure to wrangle a recommendation to voters, in such a critical year for the GOP and with so many candidates battling for the nominations, reflected the diminishing power of the state party and its leadership."

Vince Matteo, chairman of the Lycoming County Republican Party, said, "I think we have some really good candidates. I haven’t made up my mind personally in any one of the three races. Why should the party anoint one, if you will?"

As we wrote in last week's Democratic issue of The Heart of the Primaries, the state Democratic Party did not endorse in the Senate race as no candidate reached the required two-thirds vote threshold at the party meeting. The party endorsed Josh Shapiro in the gubernatorial primary.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Senate and gubernatorial elections Toss-ups.

The filing deadline for major party candidates in Pennsylvania is March 8, and primary elections are scheduled for May 17.

Farm Bureau backs Pillen, Noem backs Herbster in Nebraska governor’s race

The Nebraska Farm Bureau and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) both endorsed candidates in Nebraska’s gubernatorial primary last week. The Bureau endorsed Jim Pillen on Feb.1, and Noem endorsed Charles Herbster on Feb 2. Nebraska Farm Bureau President Mark McHargue said that a poll of Farm Bureau members "resoundingly said Jim Pillen's the guy," and that Pillen "understands we have a broken tax system and that there is overreliance on property taxes (and) he understands that if agriculture does well, our state does well."

According to Omaha news outlet 3 News Now, the group hadn't endorsed in a competitive GOP gubernatorial primary since 2006, when its endorsed candidate, Dave Heineman, defeated Tom Osborne. McHargue said, "We really made a difference in that race. … And we think we can do it again in this one."

Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) also endorsed Pillen. Ricketts is term-limited.

Noem said Herbster "is a strong conservative, and with decades of experience as a farmer, rancher, and successful businessman, I know that he will fight to advance the America First agenda in Nebraska."

Trump endorsed Herbster in Nebraska and Noem's re-election bid in South Dakota.

Six candidates are running in the May 10 Republican primary so far.

February 3, 2022

Doughty, self-described moderate, challenges Trump-backed Diehl in Massachusetts

Chris Doughty, the president of a gear manufacturing company, announced he is running in the Republican gubernatorial primary and putting $500,000 of his own money into his campaign.

Doughty said, "When I saw that Governor Baker wasn’t getting back in and I didn’t see any other moderate Republicans, my wife said, 'Hey, quit complaining about it. Take a courage pill and step out on the stage.'" Doughty said he voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election and for Donald Trump in 2020.

Doughty discussed affordability and jobs in his campaign announcement video, saying, "The lynchpin in all of this is our education system. … We need to continue to invest from early childhood education all the way through college and trade schools."

Candidate Geoff Diehl also discussed affordability and jobs in a recent video. Diehl said the state needs to re-evaluate "how we can deliver the best possible education product to the most students affordably" and that parents need to be involved in what children are taught in schools. Trump endorsed Diehl in October, before Gov. Charlie Baker (R) announced he wouldn't seek re-election. Diehl has criticized Baker over state employee vaccine mandates, school mask mandates, and business closures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We wrote about the conflict between Baker and state Republican Party chair Jim Lyons in our first issue of this cycle's The Heart of the Primaries.

The primary is set for Sept. 20. To make the primary ballot, candidates need to receive at least 15% support from delegates at the state Republican Party convention in May. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the general election Lean Democratic.

Expensive primary expected after Kevin Nicholson announces Wisconsin gubernatorial campaign

Former Marine and 2018 U.S. Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson announced on Jan. 27 that he is running in Wisconsin's GOP gubernatorial primary. Nicholson said, "We can’t take Wisconsin to new heights if we elect a Governor from the same, tired political class that lacks the vision, ability, and will to fight for the future of our state."

The Associated Press’ Scott Bauer wrote that Nicholson is "running as an anti-establishment outsider in a bid to capture conservatives who have not gotten behind [former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch]’s candidacy." The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck wrote that Nicholson "[announced] his campaign days after dressing down the chairman of the state Republican Party at a county party event and often [criticized] the ‘political class’ in the state."

Before Nicholson’s announcement, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) said, "I think if [Nicholson] runs, it hurts our chances to defeat Gov. Evers. … I certainly think that having a messy primary where people go after, in a negative way, each other — which is usually what happens in an expensive primary — that just doesn't help us." Vos said Kleefisch is "certainly, in [his] mind, the best candidate."

On Jan. 24, conservative donor Richard Uihlein promised that Nicholson would "have [his] full support and commitment to win the primary and general elections" if he ran. Uihlein gave $11 million to PACs supporting Nicholson's 2018 Senate primary campaign, which Nicholson lost to former state Sen. Leah Vukmir 43% to 49%. According to Bauer, Uihlein’s wife, Elizabeth, donated $20,000 to Kleefisch’s 2022 campaign and $200,000 to a super PAC supporting Kleefisch.

Wisconsin Public Radio’s Shawn Johnson reported that the Uihleins were the fourth-largest donors in the country in the 2020 election cycle, having donated $68 million in support of federal candidates.

Kleefisch’s campaign raised $3.3 million from September to December.

Incumbent Tony Evers (D), who is running for re-election, defeated former Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49.5% to 48.4% in 2018. The primary is scheduled for Aug. 9. At least five candidates are running.

January 27, 2022

Kenai Mayor Charlie Pierce (R) joins top-four Alaska gubernatorial primary

Last week, Kenai Mayor Charlie Pierce (R) announced he is running in Alaska's gubernatorial primary. Pierce is the second Republican officeholder to challenge incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R). Pierce's announcement comes as Alaska prepares to hold its first gubernatorial election using a new election system voters approved in 2020 involving top-four all-party primary elections and ranked-choice voting general elections.

Pierce, who was elected mayor in 2017, said he was running due to frustration with Dunleavy and former Gov. Bill Walker (I). Walker is also running this year. The Anchorage Daily News described Pierce's differences with Dunleavy as "more based on style than substance or policy."

Dunleavy's other elected Republican challenger, state Rep. Chris Kurka (R), has criticized the governor's response to the coronavirus pandemic, saying that Alaska was "awash in Big Pharma-manipulated federal blood money" spent to promote vaccination.

Also last week, the Alaska GOP announced it was endorsing Dunleavy for re-election. Former President Trump endorsed Dunleavy late last year (on the condition that Dunleavy not endorse U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) for re-election).

In other related news, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld the election system voters approved in 2020. The court's ruling means that the system will go into effect for this year's elections, including the Aug. 16 gubernatorial primary. Under the system, every candidate will appear on the same primary ballot, regardless of their partisan affiliation. The top four candidates will advance to the general election, in which voters can rank their preferences rather than voting for a single candidate. Click here for details on how ranked-choice voting works.

Alaska is the first state to adopt top-four primaries and the second to adopt ranked-choice voting for statewide elections, after Maine.

Maryland gubernatorial candidate fundraising data

Former Maryland Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz has raised $1.5 million toward her gubernatorial campaign. Former state Del. Robin Ficker loaned his campaign $1.1 million. Del. Daniel Cox raised $344,000.

Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited and endorsed Schulz. Former President Trump endorsed Cox. We wrote about the dueling endorsements in our second issue.

Democratic primary candidates have raised more than GOP candidates. Wes Moore led Democrats with $4.8 million. Former Secretary of Labor Tom Perez raised $2.7 million and former U.S. Secretary of Education John King Jr., $2.5 million. Several other candidates have announced Democratic primary bids.

Former Lt. Gov. and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele recently announced he would not enter the GOP primary.

The primaries are scheduled for July 19.

Ricketts endorses Pillen for governor

On Jan. 18, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) endorsed Jim Pillen in the Republican gubernatorial primary. In October, former President Trump endorsed Charles Herbster in the primary. Ricketts is term-limited.

Pillen has served on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents since 2013. Ricketts said, "Whether creating Nebraska jobs, fighting Critical Race Theory at the University system, or supporting his fellow ag producers, Jim has consistently shown he’s a leader of principle and integrity."

Herbster owns a manufacturing company and the cattle ranch Herbster Angus Farms. Trump said Herbster "has been a tremendous supporter of America First and Make America Great Again, right from the beginning."

Ricketts said, "While I agree with President Trump on many things, I strongly disagree that Charles Herbster is qualified to be our next governor — from his choice to headquarter his business in Missouri to his support of tax policy that would tax medical services, prescriptions, and food, as well as more than doubling our sale tax."

Herbster said, "It is disappointing to me that Governor Ricketts is supporting a candidate who has a weak record on illegal immigration, who failed to stop Critical Race Theory from seeping into public universities and then voted to fund it with taxpayer dollars, and who has admitted to polluting our most precious resource, water."

Several other candidates have filed for the primary so far.

Ricketts also endorsed state Sen. Mike Flood in his Republican primary bid against incumbent Rep. Jeff Fortenberry in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District. Ricketts said, "Mike will be able to focus his entire energy on representing the first district here in Nebraska and stopping this radical agenda coming out of DC." Fortenberry said Ricketts' and former Gov. Dave Heineman's endorsements of Flood were "particularly disappointing."

In October, a federal grand jury indicted Fortenberry on one count of scheming to falsify and conceal material facts and two counts of making false statements to federal investigators. Fortenberry pleaded not guilty.

Nebraska’s primary is scheduled for May 10.

January 20, 2022

Aurora mayor joins Illinois gubernatorial primary

Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin announced he's running in the June 28 Republican gubernatorial primary. The Chicago Sun-Times reported that a network of consultants with connections to former Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) and former U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R) recruited Irvin to run. Incumbent Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) defeated Rauner 55% to 39% in 2018.

Lynn Sweet wrote, "Irvin’s viability hinges on getting the support of billionaire Ken Griffin, and Irvin’s team has signaled that may be in the works." Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, gave $54 million to defeat a graduated income tax ballot measure in 2020 that Pritzker supported with $58 million.

Aurora is the second-largest city in Illinois, with an estimated population of 180,542 as of 2020 according to the Census Bureau.

Also running in the Republican primary so far are state Sen. Darren Bailey, Cheryl Erickson, Gary Rabine, Christopher Roper, former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, Max Solomon, and Jesse Sullivan.

Highlights from PA's gubernatorial primary debate

Eight candidates running for the Pennsylvania GOP's gubernatorial nomination met for a debate sponsored by the Lawrence County GOP on Jan. 12, the second to take place so far this year. The candidates' priorities for their first weeks in office were among the topics of discussion.

Guy Ciarrocchi, the chairman of the Chester County Chamber of Commerce, said he would remove mandates and lockdowns if any were in effect and ask the legislature to "give us a bill to help our kids. There are so many kids trapped in failing schools. … If there's a school in Pennsylvania where no one on the school board would send their child, that school oughta close."

Charlie Gerow, the vice-chairman of the Conservative Political Action Conference and CEO of Quantum Communications, said he would repeal Act 77, a law Gov. Tom Wolf (D) signed in 2019 that changed several election procedures. Gerow said, "I fought for election integrity, I did it immediately after the 2020 election, and I've continued to do it."

Melissa Hart, a former U.S. representative, said she would "place out there an agenda of making sure number one that our students will be in school, no more instability."

Bill McSwain, a former U.S. attorney, would repeal Act 77 and said, "I support public education, but school choice means we’re going to support students, and families, and teachers. And we are not going to support the teacher’s unions."

Jason Richey, a partner at K&L Gates LLP, said, "If we bring ourselves down to zero percent income tax, unleash our manufacturing and energy capabilities, we will make Pennsylvania an economic juggernaut, where our kids and grandkids will stay."

John Ventre, a former UPS executive, said he would focus on economic growth: "We are rated number 42 in business growth, number 48th in population, the way you fix that is with a very large business tax cut."

David White, the founder of DWD Mechanical Contractors, said he would remove the state from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and, "We have to get back to a program that if you are on unemployment you need to look for a job, you need to be actively seeking a job. We have to stop subsidizing people not to work."

Dr. Nche Zama, a surgeon and immigrant from Cameroon, said he would "establish a pandemic management and interceptive medicine council like no other state has" within 24 hours of taking office.

The eight candidates who appeared at the Jan. 12 debate are among at least 13 Republicans who have said they're running for governor. Among the declared candidates who did not attend the debate were former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, state Senate President pro tem Jake Corman, and state Sen. Scott Martin.

The primary is scheduled for May 17.

January 13, 2022

Mastriano enters Penn. governor's race, Kellyanne Conway joins Corman's staff

On Jan. 8, state Sen. Doug Mastriano announced his Republican primary bid for governor of Pennsylvania. A supporter of Trump's challenges to the 2020 election results, Mastriano has sparred with fellow Senate Republicans over how to run the investigation he launched in July 2021 into Pennsylvania’s election results. Mastriano wanted to subpoena three counties to provide access to their voting machines as part of the investigation and said that Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman undermined his efforts.

Corman is also running in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Pennsylvania State Capital Bureau's Candy Woodall wrote, "Corman, who is typically regarded as the most powerful Republican in Harrisburg, in August replaced Mastriano on the committee leading the election review and also removed his staff — actions that are rare from chamber leadership." Corman said Mastriano "was only ever interested in politics and showmanship and not actually getting things done."

After the committee voted to subpoena personal information on all Pennsylvania voters in September, Mastriano said that "the subpoenas do not go nearly far enough to begin a full forensic audit of the 2020 election."

On Jan. 7, Corman announced former Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway would join his campaign as a pollster and special advisor. Last month, Corman's campaign announced it would employ Poolhouse, the agency that oversaw ad production for Glenn Youngkin’s (R) successful campaign for governor of Virginia.

In addition to Mastriano and Corman, at least 13 other Republicans are running in the primary, including former U.S. Reps. Lou Barletta and Melissa Hart, state Sen. Scott Martin, and former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania William McSwain. The primary is scheduled for May 17.

Three candidates for Alabama governor have more than $1 million on hand

Three of the seven Republicans running for Alabama governor—incumbent Kay Ivey, Lynda Blanchard, and Tim James—had at least $1 million on hand as of Dec. 31, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Alabama Secretary of State.

Blanchard reported ending 2021 with $3.5 million in her campaign account after loaning her campaign $5 million in December. Ivey ended 2021 with $2.6 million. James had $1 million, including a $500,000 loan.

In December, Blanchard spent $1.5 million, Ivey spent $466,000, and James spent $10,000.

All three candidates have since filed supplementary reports, required for individual contributions of $20,000 or more. Blanchard increased her cash-on-hand lead with a further $2.8 million loan, while Ivey reported raising an additional $170,000 and James, an additional $600,000.

None of the other four primary candidates had more than $50,000 cash on hand as of Dec. 31.

Ivey became governor following Robert Bentley's (R) resignation in 2017 and was elected to a full term in 2018. Ivey says her record includes boosting the state's economy, signing legislation that increases restrictions on abortion and the teaching of critical race theory, and resisting the Biden administration. Blanchard, who served as U.S. ambassador to Slovenia from 2019 to 2021 during the Trump administration, says she is running to bring conservative leadership to state government and that she is a political outsider. James, a real estate developer who ran for governor in 2010, has criticized Ivey for supporting an increase in the state gas tax in 2019 and says he would work to outlaw same-sex marriage.

Seven Republicans have filed to run in the May 24 gubernatorial primary. The filing deadline is Jan. 28. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the primary vote, a runoff will take place June 21.

January 6, 2022

Hogan seeks to counter Trump influence in GOP primaries

We wrote last month that Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed different candidates in Maryland's gubernatorial GOP primary, which Hogan can't run in due to term limits. The endorsement conflict doesn't stop in Hogan's current office. Hogan is campaigning for Republican incumbents around the country who have been critical of Trump and, in some cases, who face primary challengers Trump endorsed.

Hogan has so far fundraised for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.). Politico reported that Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Idaho Gov. Brad Little may also receive Hogan's support.

Hogan said, "It’s crazy. We’ve got the former president going after all these really good elected Republicans, and so I’m trying to support people who I think deserve to be in office. … We’re trying to help people wherever we can, and I’m sure we’re going to be doing a lot more of it."

Hogan held a fundraiser with Herrera Beutler in December. She was one of 10 House Republicans to vote for impeaching Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. Hogan has also hosted fundraisers for Kemp. Kemp and Trump clashed on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia. Trump backed challengers to both Herrera Beutler and Kemp.

Media outlets have discussed Hogan as a potential 2024 presidential contender, and Hogan hasn't confirmed or denied that he'll run. Politico's Alex Isenstadt wrote, "A Hogan 2024 bid would be decidedly uphill given Trump’s ongoing, vise-like hold over the GOP. But the governor has argued there is an opening in the party for a Trump critic."

Gun policy becomes early issue in Georgia gubernatorial primary

Gun policy is in the spotlight in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial primary, with incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp and former Sen. David Perdue both issuing statements in recent weeks.

Perdue said in a statement last month, "As governor, I’ll work with the state Legislature to finally enact constitutional carry. Georgia needs a bold leader who will make waves to get things done – not a career politician who hasn’t delivered."

Constitutional carry is one term (along with permitless carry) for a policy allowing people to carry a firearm without a permit.

On Jan. 5, Kemp joined state lawmakers and the National Rifle Association to announce support for related legislation in the next legislative session. Kemp wrote in a press release, "As I said on the campaign trail in 2018, I believe the U.S. Constitution grants our citizens the right to carry a firearm without the approval of government. For law-abiding Georgians, the 2nd Amendment is their carry permit, and I look forward to working with members of the General Assembly to get Constitutional Carry across the finish line this legislative session."

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "Georgians are currently required to have a Weapons Carry License to carry a concealed weapon. The process requires a valid Georgia ID, fingerprinting, a background check, and that the owner be at least 21 (with some exceptions)." The AJC also wrote that Kemp "endorsed constitutional carry during his first run for governor, but it’s stalled in the Legislature."

The primary is set for May 24.

Trump endorses Dunleavy in Alaska—with a condition

Former President Trump offered a conditional endorsement of Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Trump wrote that his endorsement "is subject to [Dunleavy's] non-endorsement of Senator Lisa Murkowski who has been very bad for Alaska, including losing ANWAR, perhaps the most important drilling site in the world, and much else. In other words, if Mike endorses her, which is his prerogative, my endorsement of him is null and void, and of no further force or effect!"

After the House voted to impeach Trump in 2021, Murkowski was one of seven Senate Republicans to vote that Trump was guilty of inciting an insurrection.

A spokesman for Dunleavy confirmed Dunleavy accepted Trump's endorsement. Dunleavy wrote to a Trump assistant, "Please tell the President thank you for the endorsement. With regard to the other issue, please tell the President he has nothing to worry about."

In other endorsement news, on Jan. 3, Trump endorsed Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) in the state's gubernatorial election.

December 16, 2021

Former Sen. David Perdue challenging Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

Former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) announced on Dec. 6 he is running for governor of Georgia, setting up a primary challenge to incumbent Brian Kemp. The primary is scheduled for May 24.

In a video announcing his candidacy, Perdue said, "Unfortunately, today, we are divided, and Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger are to blame. Look, I like Brian. This isn't personal. It's simple. He has failed all of us and cannot win in November." Kemp and Raffensperger—Georgia's Republican secretary of state—clashed with Trump over the legitimacy of Georgia's 2020 presidential election results. Trump and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) endorsed Perdue, each saying Kemp's conflict with Trump meant he could not win the general election.

On Dec. 10, Perdue filed a lawsuit in state court asking for an inspection of the 2020 election's absentee ballots in Fulton County.

Kemp spokesman Cody Hall said, "Perdue is best known for ducking debates, padding his stock portfolio during a pandemic, and losing winnable races." The political action committee Georgians First Leadership Committee released six ads between Dec. 6 and Dec. 14 criticizing Perdue for stock trades at the start of the pandemic, losing his Senate re-election bid, and his business record. The group also launched an opposition website.

Perdue was first elected to the Senate in 2014 and lost to Jon Ossoff (D) 49.4% to 50.6% in the January 2021 Senate runoff. Kemp defeated Stacey Abrams (D) 50.2% to 48.8% in the 2018 gubernatorial election. Abrams is running again in 2022. Before serving as governor, Kemp was secretary of state from 2010 to 2018.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey draws several primary challengers

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is seeking re-election. Since Ivey announced her bid in June, several other Republicans have launched primary campaigns.

Ivey assumed office in 2017 after serving as the state’s lieutenant governor. Ivey is running on what she says is a record of job creation, signing pro-life and anti-critical race theory legislation, and pushing back against the Biden administration.

Among Ivey's challengers is Lynda Blanchard, who served as Trump's ambassador to Slovenia from 2019 to 2021. Blanchard originally declared her candidacy for the Alabama U.S. Senate race before entering the gubernatorial race. Blanchard said she is running because "people made it unmistakably clear to me that they wanted a conservative outsider, not just in (Washington) D.C. but ... here in Montgomery, a leader who will run our state boldly."

Another challenger is correctional officer Stacy George. George has criticized Ivey’s COVID-19 emergency orders and supports a state lottery to fund mental health services.

Candidate Tim James is a toll road developer and the son of former Alabama Gov. Fob James. James has criticized Ivey for supporting a 2019 increase in the gas tax. His platform includes working to ban same-sex marriage.

Dean Odle, a pastor, said he is running because he thinks Ivey mishandled the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. He has also criticized Ivey's handling of the state's prisons and support for the gas tax increase.

Candidate Jim Zeigler is the current Alabama auditor. Zeigler said, "Governor Ivey is not running the Governor’s office. We have a Joe Biden situation in Montgomery. So Joe Biden is not running the President’s office. In Alabama, our former congressman, Jo Bonner, is the chief of staff, and he is running things. He is the acting governor of Alabama."

The primary is scheduled for May 24.

December 2, 2021

Hogan, Trump endorse in Maryland gubernatorial primary

On Nov. 23, term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan (R) endorsed Maryland Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz in the gubernatorial primary. Hogan said Schulz "has done an incredible job for us for the past seven years" and referred to state Del. Dan Cox (R), also running in the primary, as "a QAnon whack job who was in favor of I think calling Mike Pence, my friend Mike Pence, a traitor when they were talking about hanging him."

The day before, Former President Donald Trump endorsed Cox, saying Cox was "MAGA all the way—unlike his opponent, Kelly Schulz, who was handpicked by her 'boss,' RINO Larry Hogan, who has been terrible for our Country and is against the America First Movement."

Hogan said Trump's involvement in the 2022 primaries was a topic of discussion at the Republican Governors Association meeting in November. Hogan said, "I think the president is attacking six or seven sitting governors and 30-something members of Congress. I think it's really bad for the party. I think it's bad for Donald Trump. And you know, we're going to continue to push back."

In Maryland, 55% of voters are registered Democrats, 24% are Republicans, and 20% are unaffiliated.

The primary is scheduled for July 19.

Former South Dakota House Speaker challenging Gov. Noem

State Rep. Steve Haugaard, a former speaker of the South Dakota House, announced on Nov. 17 that he would challenge incumbent Gov. Kristi Noem in next year's Republican primary.

In his campaign kickoff speech, Haugaard said Noem failed to stand with South Dakota conservatives when she opposed bans on private businesses mandating that their employees receive a COVID vaccine.

Haugaard also criticized Noem for sending a bill back to the legislature in March. The bill would have required athletes to compete in sports events based on their "biological sex, as ascertained at or before birth in accordance with the student's genetics and reproductive biology." Noem said she was concerned about the potential response from the National Collegiate Athletic Association and asked the legislature to exclude college athletics from the bill's provisions.

Noem and Haugaard have clashed in the past, including on their stances toward Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg (R). Noem called for Ravnsborg to resign after he fatally struck a pedestrian in September 2020, while Haugaard voted against the state House opening an investigation.

Haugaard was first elected to the state House in 2014 and was House speaker for the 2019-2020 term. Noem was first elected governor in 2018 after serving four terms in the U.S. House. She defeated then-Attorney General Marty Jackley 56% to 44% in the Republican primary.

According to the SoDak Governors blog, "no elected governor seeking a second term has ever been defeated in a primary election."

So far, Noem and Hubbard are the only two candidates running. The filing deadline is March 29. The primary is scheduled for June 7 with an Aug. 16 runoff if no candidate receives 50% of the vote.

Massachusetts update: Baker not seeking re-election

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) announced on Dec. 1 that he won't seek a third term. We covered the conflict between Baker and the state party chair in our last edition.

November 18, 2021

Where Trump has endorsed challengers to GOP incumbents so far

Former President Donald Trump has made more than 50 endorsements in the 2022 elections so far, including several candidates challenging GOP incumbents. The table above includes incumbents who are running for re-election or have not announced their intentions.

Three of the four House incumbents with Trump-endorsed challengers voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection following the Jan. 6 Capitol breach: Liz Cheney, Jaime Herrera Beutler, and Fred Upton. Two of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach—Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16) and Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)—are not running for re-election.

Three incumbent Republican senators with seats up for election in 2022 voted "guilty" on Trump's 2021 impeachment: Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Richard Burr (N.C.), and Pat Toomey (Penn.). Murkowski is the only one seeking re-election. Trump endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in the primary (which will be a top-four primary featuring candidates of all affiliations— click here for more information). Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the group will be supporting all incumbent senators.

Trump has criticized Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker on crime, policing, and other issues. Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued over the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results in the state. We cover conflicts in the Idaho gubernatorial race below.

We'll be watching how impeachment votes and 2020 election claims unfold in these and other Republican primaries, along with policy differences between the candidates.

Trump endorsement follows conflict between Little and McGeachin in Idaho

Trump endorsed Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin in the Republican primary for Idaho governor, calling McGeachin a "true supporter of MAGA since the very beginning." The endorsement came days after Idaho Gov. Brad Little (R) attended the America First Policy Institute Gala in Florida, where Trump called Little "a terrific gentleman." Little has not yet announced whether he'll seek re-election.

Little and McGeachin have come into conflict in recent months, with McGeachin using her power as acting governor to issue executive orders while Little was out of state. Little rescinded the orders once he returned.

In May, McGeachin issued an executive order banning mask mandates while Little was at a Republican Governors Association meeting. In October, McGeachin issued an executive order prohibiting state agencies from requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or testing while Little was at the U.S.-Mexico border. Little had issued a similar order, but his did not include K-12 schools and universities.

The primary is scheduled for May 17.

Massachusetts Republican Party conflict manifests in governor's race

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is considering whether to seek re-election. If he does, the Republican primary could be the center of a debate over the direction of the party in the state. In Massachusetts, 10% of voters are registered Republicans, 32% are Democrats, and 57% are unenrolled (independent).

Baker recently called himself a "Bill Weld Republican," referring to the former Republican governor who ran for president in 2016 as a Libertarian and again in 2020 as a Republican.

Last month, Baker called on state GOP Chair Jim Lyons to step down after Lyons didn't revoke his endorsement of a city council candidate who referred to mayoral candidate Michelle Wu's Asian heritage in a tweet. Lyons said that Baker should reconsider his party affiliation, saying he was "abandoning the principles of the Republican Party."

The Boston Globe's Emma Platoff wrote that Baker "takes a bipartisan approach in his dealings with the Democratic-dominated Legislature; Lyons, for his part, leads a more conservative faction of the party that argues Republicans in the state should take a harder line despite their minimal power on Beacon Hill."

Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl is running in the primary and has criticized Baker's actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including business closures and vaccine mandates for state workers. As mentioned above, Trump endorsed Diehl.

Former party chair Jennifer Nassour (2009-2011) said if Diehl beat Baker in a primary, it would mean the "end of the Republican party in Massachusetts," referring to Baker's popularity and Diehl's unsuccessful bids for state Senate in 2015 and U.S. Senate in 2018.

Due to his position, Lyons cannot endorse in the primary. Primaries in Massachusetts are set for Sept. 20.

Footnotes

↑ Alaska held top-four all-party primaries.
↑ ^2.00 ^2.01 ^2.02 ^2.03 ^2.04 ^2.05 ^2.06 ^2.07 ^2.08 ^2.09 ^2.10 ^2.11 ^2.12 ^2.13 ^2.14 ^2.15 ^2.16 ^2.17 ^2.18 ^2.19 ^2.20 ^2.21 ^2.22 ^2.23 ^2.24 ^2.25 ^2.26 ^2.27 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.

[1] Alaska held top-four all-party primaries.

[quotedisclaimer-2] 2.00 ^2.01 ^2.02 ^2.03 ^2.04 ^2.05 ^2.06 ^2.07 ^2.08 ^2.09 ^2.10 ^2.11 ^2.12 ^2.13 ^2.14 ^2.15 ^2.16 ^2.17 ^2.18 ^2.19 ^2.20 ^2.21 ^2.22 ^2.23 ^2.24 ^2.25 ^2.26 ^2.27 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.

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