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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
- Primary date: Aug. 2
- Mail-in registration deadline: July 5
- Online reg. deadline: July 5
- In-person reg. deadline: July 5
- Early voting starts: July 6
- Early voting ends: July 29
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
- Absentee/mail-in deadline: Aug. 2
2026 →
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Governor of Arizona |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: April 4, 2022 |
Primary: August 2, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 Pre-election incumbent(s): Doug Ducey (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona |
Ballotpedia analysis |
Federal and state primary competitiveness State executive elections in 2022 Impact of term limits in 2022 State government trifectas State government triplexes Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022 |
Arizona executive elections |
Governor Attorney General |
Kari Lake defeated Karrin Taylor Robson, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani-Zen in the Republican primary for governor of Arizona on August 2, 2022. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) was term-limited.
Heading into the primary, Lake and Taylor Robson led in endorsements, polls, and funding.
Lake, a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, Arizona, said she was "running ... on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage."[1] Lake said, "The ongoing border crisis is nothing less than a national security and humanitarian disaster. ... I will not wait for Washington’s approval or rely on the empty promises of far-away politicians to do what’s best for Arizonans."[2] She said, "After I take my hand off the Bible, we are going to issue a declaration of invasion. We are going to finish President Trump's wall, and we are going to send our armed National Guard to the border and stop people from coming across."[3]
Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake, along with U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), U.S. Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the Conservative Political Action Coalition, and the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.
Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, said, "We need a leader with a record of accomplishment, not a career talker with the teleprompter."[4] She said, "I built my own businesses. I do more than talk for a living."[5] Taylor Robson said that border security would be her first priority and that she would "surge National Guard troops to the border, equip the Border Strike Force with the latest technology, and finish the wall."[6][7] She also said, "I am uniquely qualified to lead this state into the future and to secure and protect Arizona’s water. My experience includes decades managing land, water and other natural resource issues, as well as working with government at all levels."[8]
Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Ducey, and former Arizona Govs. Jan Brewer (R) and John Fife Symington III (R) endorsed Taylor Robson, as did Arizona state Senate President Karen Fann (R), Americans for Prosperity, and the National Border Patrol Council.
Lake said she would not have certified the results of the 2020 presidential election. She said that President Joe Biden (D) "lost the election and he shouldn’t be in the White House."[4] In a campaign ad, Lake said, "If you're watching this ad right now, it means you're in the middle of watching a fake news program. You know how to know it's fake? Because they won't even cover the biggest story out there, the rigged election of 2020."[9]
Taylor Robson said, "Joe Biden may be the president, but the election wasn’t fair. States across the country changed their voting rules in the weeks and months before the election; the mainstream media generally refused to cover stories harmful to Joe Biden; and Big Tech actively suppressed conservative voices. No wonder a sizable percentage of Arizona Republicans still feel the way they do about 2020."[10]
On June 28, 2022, former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdrew from the primary, saying, "Republican primary voters deserve more than having their votes split[.]"[11] Salmon endorsed Taylor Robson on June 29.[12] Salmon's withdrawal came after the deadline for his name to be removed from the ballot.[13]
Patrick Finerd, Carlos Roldan, and Alex Schatz ran as write-ins in the primary.
As of August 2, 2022, major independent observers rated the general election as a toss-up. Ducey was first elected in 2014 and won re-election in 2018 by a margin of 14 percentage points. At the time of the election, Republicans had held trifecta control of Arizona state government since 2009.
Kari Lake (R), Scott Neely (R), Paola Tulliani-Zen (R), and Patrick Finerd (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.
This page focuses on Arizona's Republican Party gubernatorial primary. For more in-depth information on Arizona's Democratic gubernatorial primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)
- Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022

Election news
This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.
Candidates and election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for Governor of Arizona
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kari Lake ![]() | 48.0 | 398,860 |
![]() | Karrin Taylor Robson | 43.1 | 358,682 | |
![]() | Matt Salmon (Unofficially withdrew) | 3.7 | 30,704 | |
![]() | Scott Neely ![]() | 3.1 | 25,876 | |
![]() | Paola Tulliani-Zen ![]() | 2.1 | 17,281 | |
Carlos Roldan (Write-in) | 0.0 | 42 | ||
Alex Schatz (Write-in) | 0.0 | 39 | ||
![]() | Patrick Finerd (Write-in) ![]() | 0.0 | 24 |
Total votes: 831,508 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Steve Gaynor (R)
- Kimberly Yee (R)
- Frank Konarski (R)
News and conflicts in this primary
This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican gubernatorial primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 32 (July 21, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 31 (July 14, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 30 (July 7, 2022)
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "Kari Lake, the former anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, became a symbol of truth in journalism when she walked away from the mainstream media despite being number one in the ratings for more than two decades. Now she's running for Governor of Arizona on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage. Kari Lake continues to be a voice for the silent majority suffering at the hands of cancel culture, critical race theory, and the devastating effects progressive policies are piling up on America's formerly great cities."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am an ultra-conservative, multiple small business owner running for Arizona Governor. I have self-funded my campaign thus far, and would just like the opportunity to allow Arizonan's to get to know me and understand my unique vision for Arizona. I am a blue-collared, middle class, worker who wants to free the Arizona middle class. What motivated me to run was the simple fact that the other candidates running do not understand what the middle class life is like, when middle class workers are the foundation of Arizona. Being a part of the people and working beside them every day gives me a unique point of view. I want to make Arizona a place where people love to work, play, and live. Right now, people are beginning to believe that their are only 4 republican candidates for governor, and it is my goal to change that and give them a different option, an option that involves me. I am confident that if the media was not biased against people like myself, without millions of dollars to spend on my campaign, I would receive exposure and the people of Arizona would enjoy my perspective and what I have to offer them. Again, I am with the people, and I am for the people, and I want to continue being for them if I am elected governor."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
- Arizona Board of Regents (2017-2021)
Biography: Taylor Robson studied history and political science at Arizona State University before attending law school at Arizona State University College of Law. Taylor Robson's professional experience includes working as a partner in a law firm, working as executive vice president of a real estate development company, and founding AZ Strategies, a land use strategy firm.
Show sources
Sources: Karrin Taylor Robson 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed June 29, 2022; Facebook, "Karrin Taylor Robson on June 14, 2022," accessed June 29, 2022; AP News, "Republicans square off in raucous Arizona governor debate," June 29, 2022; YouTube, "More Than Talk | Karrin Taylor Robson," June 27, 2022; LinkedIn, "Karrin Taylor Robson," accessed June 29, 2022; Arizona Board of Regents, "Board Members," accessed June 29, 2022
This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am Paula Tuilliani-Zen your Republican candidate for Arizona Governor. I came from humble beginnings and am self-made. When I lost my father at 14 and later lost my brother, I learned life lessons… and developed job skills. I learned trades from the ground up and rose in business to the managerial level (in accounting, financial planning, marketing, leadership, and sales). Through grit and determination, I led teams and got things done while still being a people person. I developed business acumen and learned how small business is the lifeblood of Arizona. I built, operated and later sold "La Dolce Vita Biscotti Company" which continues to this day in Glendale Arizona. When I’m your new governor, good governance will return, and so will prosperity. I’ll donate my salary, and will devote my time to job creation, traditional academics in schools, lawful immigration at the border, fighting child sex trafficking, preserving our gun rights, and our natural resources…plus providing opportunities for all."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am ready to fight and protect her all the Arizonans and protect and fight for our Constitution and Bill of Rights. I will protect our borders"
This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
Survey responses from candidates in this race
Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.
Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.
Collapse all
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Patrick Finerd (R)
Border security
Second amendment And constitution also Bill of Rights protected

Kari Lake (R)
Secure elections are essential to preserve our Republic, and our state.
Arizona faces enormous challenges, we need a visionary leader to take them head-on

Scott Neely (R)
Arizona water, food, and energy is one of my top priorities, and as governor, I want to address the current drought conditions that are negatively impacting Arizonan's, including the tribal communities and our farmers. I want to offer the implementation of a desalinization plant in California for a cut of their portion of Colorado River water. Arizona is reaching dangerously low levels, and I want a solution that would stimulate American jobs, while saving our precious water.
Election integrity has been a concern for a large amount of Arizonan's, and I want them to be assured that, when I am in the position to do so, I will travel every avenue to figure out the result of the 2020 audit. I have had the opportunity to meet with fellow Arizonan's who worked on the audit, and can comfortably say that our election was fraudulent and purposefully deceitful. As the results of the audit sit on the desk of our current Attorney General, it has not been addressed and I plan to do the opposite to restore election integrity that have left Arizonan's with distrust.
Revolutionize the Education System • Reduce class sizes for better student performance and teacher success. • Acquire and implement proven, successful curriculums. • Vocational curriculum to help students discover their talents and prepare for diverse opportunities. • School Vouchers for all parents. • Mandatory tutoring where needed. Give real meaning to “No child left behind.” • Funding for pro-American programs only and empowerment classes. No CRT, Gender, or Sex Education.
Economic Opportunity • I will help create job opportunities that remove barriers to success. When people keep more of what they earn, everyone in Arizona will benefit. • Cut regulations on businesses and free up capital for companies to expand and hire more employees. • Search out companies to relocate to Arizona that will benefit our state. •I have not only built businesses, but I have also built a successful brand that has outlived my stewardship, “Success happens when we are prepared.”

Patrick Finerd (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)
As Governor, I will not let our young people doing time in state prison facilities be left to themselves and to perils that await them when they are released. We will take an active interest in their rehabilitation through academic education, drug and alcohol awareness programs, and religious instruction. To this last point, when young people begin to gain knowledge of things that are bigger than themselves, and this may be controversial I know, but it truly begins to shed a light on becoming a better person.
As Governor, I will give them that chance without apology. What better crime prevention solution is there than a changed life? It is a terrible and wretched system that allows the youth in jail to become trapped in the system where they ultimately spend a lifetime in the prison culture. Real freedom comes when everyone is given opportunities to make good choices that lead to good and virtuous lives that aid and not plague mankind. There but by the grace of God is more than a saying, it is a call to build a path to redemption for those who need it the most. It makes us fight harder for the unfortunate and the downcast who have been deemed irredeemable.

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Scott Neely (R)

Kari Lake (R)

Scott Neely (R)
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Kari Lake
June 7, 2021 |
June 1, 2021 |
View more ads here:
Scott Neely
July 23, 2022 |
May 31, 2022 |
May 2, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Karrin Taylor Robson
July 14, 2022 |
July 14, 2022 |
July 7, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Paola Tulliani-Zen
July 28, 2022 |
July 28, 2022 |
July 21, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Patrick Finerd
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Patrick Finerd while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Carlos Roldan
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Carlos Roldan while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Alex Schatz
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Alex Schatz while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Satellite ads
This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.
American Focus PAC
American Focus PAC spent $225,000 running the following ad opposing Lake:[29]
July 11, 2022 |
Put Arizona First PAC
Put Arizona First PAC spent $1.1 million on materials opposing Robson, including the following ad:[30]
May 3, 2022 |
Debates and forums
This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.
June 29, 2022
On June 29, Lake, Neely, Taylor Robson, and Tulliani-Zen participated in a televised debate hosted by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission.[21]
Click on the links below for summaries of the event:
February 5, 2022
On February 5, Lake, Gaynor, Salmon, and Taylor Robson participated in a forum hosted by the Center for Arizona Policy.[26][31]
Noteworthy endorsements
Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[32] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[33] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022: Republican primary election polls | ||||||||||
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Poll | Date | ![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[34] | Sponsor[35] |
OH Predictive Insights | June 30 - July 2, 2022 | 40% | 35% | -- | -- | -- | 21%[36] | ± 4.3 | 515 LV | -- |
Trafalgar Group | June 14 - 16, 2022 | 39% | 27% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 17%[37] | ± 2.9 | 1,068 LV | -- |
OH Predictive Insights | May 9 - 16, 2022 | 23% | 21% | 14% | -- | -- | 42%[38] | ± 5.9 | 281 LV | -- |
Trafalgar Group | April 25 - 28, 2022 | 38% | 27% | 11% | 2% | 2% | 20%[39] | ± 3.0 | 1,064 LV | -- |
OH Predictive Insights | April 4 - 5, 2022 | 29% | 22% | 11% | -- | -- | 39%[40] | ± 4.4 | 500 LV | -- |
Click [show] to see older poll results | ||||||||||
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Poll | Date | ![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[41] | Sponsor[42] |
OH Predictive Insights | Jan. 11 - 13, 2022 | 21% | 6% | 17% | -- | -- | 57%[43] | ± 5.6 | 302 RV | -- |
OH Predictive Insights | Nov. 1 - 8, 2021 | 28% | 1% | 11% | -- | -- | 60%[44] | ± 6.2 | 252 RV | -- |
OH Predictive Insights | Sept. 7 - 12, 2021 | 25% | 1% | 9% | -- | -- | 66%[45] | ± 5.6 | 311 RV | -- |
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[46]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[47][48][49]
Race ratings: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Election spending
Campaign finance
The tables below contain data from financial reports submitted to state agencies. The data is gathered and made available by Transparency USA. Transparency USA tracks loans separately from total contributions. View each candidates’ loan totals, if any, by clicking “View More” in the table below and learn more about this data here.
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[50][51][52]
If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.
Satellite spending in Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary) | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Organization | Amount | Date | Purpose | |||||||||||
Put Arizona First PAC[30] | $1 million | May-June 2022 | Supporting Lake | |||||||||||
Put Arizona First PAC[30] | $1.1 million | May-June 2022 | Opposing Taylor Robson | |||||||||||
American Focus PAC[29] | $225,000 | July 2022 | Opposing Lake |
Election analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
Presidential elections
Cook PVI by congressional district
Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Arizona, 2022 | |||
---|---|---|---|
District | Incumbent | Party | PVI |
Arizona's 1st | David Schweikert | ![]() |
R+2 |
Arizona's 2nd | Tom O'Halleran | ![]() |
R+6 |
Arizona's 3rd | Ruben Gallego | ![]() |
D+24 |
Arizona's 4th | Greg Stanton | ![]() |
D+2 |
Arizona's 5th | Andy Biggs | ![]() |
R+11 |
Arizona's 6th | Open | ![]() |
R+3 |
Arizona's 7th | Raul Grijalva | ![]() |
D+15 |
Arizona's 8th | Debbie Lesko | ![]() |
R+10 |
Arizona's 9th | Paul Gosar | ![]() |
R+16 |
2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines
2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Arizona[53] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
District | Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | ||
Arizona's 1st | 50.1% | 48.6% | ||
Arizona's 2nd | 45.3% | 53.2% | ||
Arizona's 3rd | 74.5% | 23.9% | ||
Arizona's 4th | 54.2% | 43.9% | ||
Arizona's 5th | 41.0% | 57.4% | ||
Arizona's 6th | 49.3% | 49.2% | ||
Arizona's 7th | 65.6% | 32.9% | ||
Arizona's 8th | 42.5% | 56.1% | ||
Arizona's 9th | 36.4% | 62.2% |
2012-2020
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | |||||||
Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
Republican | |||||||
Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
New Republican | D | D | R |
Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.
Arizona county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Democratic | 1 | 61.8% | |||||
Solid Republican | 10 | 20.0% | |||||
Solid Democratic | 4 | 18.2% | |||||
Total voted Democratic | 5 | 80.0% | |||||
Total voted Republican | 10 | 20.0% |
Historical voting trends
Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 9 Democratic wins
- 19 Republican wins
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | N/A | N/A | N/A | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | D |
Statewide elections
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.
U.S. Senate election results in Arizona | ||
---|---|---|
Race | Winner | Runner up |
2020 | 51.2%![]() |
48.8%![]() |
2018 | 50.0%![]() |
47.6%![]() |
2016 | 53.7%![]() |
40.8%![]() |
2012 | 49.2%![]() |
46.1%![]() |
2010 | 59.2%![]() |
34.7%![]() |
Average | 52.7 | 43.6 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Arizona
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.
Gubernatorial election results in Arizona | ||
---|---|---|
Race | Winner | Runner up |
2018 | 56.0%![]() |
41.8%![]() |
2014 | 53.4%![]() |
41.6%![]() |
2010 | 54.3%![]() |
42.4%![]() |
2006 | 62.6%![]() |
35.4%![]() |
2002 | 46.2%![]() |
45.2%![]() |
Average | 54.5 | 41.3 |
State partisanship
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of November 2022.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona, November 2022 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Republican | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 2 | 9 | 11 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of November 2022.
State executive officials in Arizona, November 2022 | |
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Office | Officeholder |
Governor | ![]() |
Secretary of State | ![]() |
Attorney General | ![]() |
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Arizona State Legislature as of November 2022.
Arizona State Senate
Party | As of November 2022 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 14 | |
Republican Party | 16 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 30 |
Arizona House of Representatives
Party | As of November 2022 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 29 | |
Republican Party | 31 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 60 |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Arizona was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Arizona Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
Demographic Data for Arizona | ||
---|---|---|
Arizona | United States | |
Population | 7,151,502 | 331,449,281 |
Land area (sq mi) | 113,654 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White | 73.8% | 70.4% |
Black/African American | 4.5% | 12.6% |
Asian | 3.3% | 5.6% |
Native American | 4.3% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Other (single race) | 6.9% | 5.1% |
Multiple | 7% | 5.2% |
Hispanic/Latino | 31.5% | 18.2% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate | 87.9% | 88.5% |
College graduation rate | 30.3% | 32.9% |
Income | ||
Median household income | $61,529 | $64,994 |
Persons below poverty level | 14.1% | 12.8% |
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2015-2020). | ||
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
Election context
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates in Arizona in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.
Filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates, 2022 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source | Notes |
Arizona | Governor | Ballot-qualified party | 0.25% of qualified signers in the state | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source | |
Arizona | Governor | Unaffiliated | 3% of total registered voters in the state who are not members of a ballot-qualified political party | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source |
Arizona gubernatorial election history
2018
- See also: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018
General election
General election for Governor of Arizona
Incumbent Doug Ducey defeated David Garcia and Angel Torres in the general election for Governor of Arizona on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Doug Ducey (R) | 56.0 | 1,330,863 |
![]() | David Garcia (D) | 41.8 | 994,341 | |
![]() | Angel Torres (G) | 2.1 | 50,962 |
Total votes: 2,376,166 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Noah Dyer (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for Governor of Arizona
David Garcia defeated Steve Farley and Kelly Fryer in the Democratic primary for Governor of Arizona on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | David Garcia | 50.6 | 255,555 |
![]() | Steve Farley | 32.3 | 163,072 | |
![]() | Kelly Fryer ![]() | 17.2 | 86,810 |
Total votes: 505,437 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Republican primary election
Republican primary for Governor of Arizona
Incumbent Doug Ducey defeated Ken Bennett in the Republican primary for Governor of Arizona on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Doug Ducey | 70.7 | 463,672 |
![]() | Ken Bennett | 29.3 | 191,775 |
Total votes: 655,447 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Libertarian primary election
No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Barry J. Hess (L)
- Merissa Hamilton (L)
- Jeff Funicello (L)
- Kevin McCormick (L)
2014
- See also: Arizona Gubernatorial election, 2014
Governor of Arizona, 2014 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Republican | ![]() |
53.4% | 805,062 | |
Democratic | Fred DuVal | 41.6% | 626,921 | |
Libertarian | Barry J. Hess | 3.8% | 57,337 | |
Americans Elect | J.L. Mealer | 1% | 15,432 | |
Nonpartisan | Write-ins | 0.1% | 1,664 | |
Total Votes | 1,506,416 | |||
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State |
Click [show] to view election results dating back to 2002. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Republican-held governorship in state Biden won
- See also: States won by Joe Biden in 2020 with Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022
This is one of six governorships Republicans were defending in states President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
Democrats were defending one governorship in a state that Donald Trump (R) won in 2020: Kansas.
The table below show which states held gubernatorial elections in 2022 and the last presidential and gubernatorial margin of victory in each. Click [show] on the right below to expand the table.
Gubernatorial elections, 2022 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Last time office flipped | 2020 presidential result | 2018 gubernatorial result[54] | |
Alabama | ![]() |
2002 | R+25.4 | R+19.2 | |
Alaska | ![]() |
2018 | R+10.0 | R+8.6 | |
Arizona | ![]() |
2009 | D+0.3 | R+17.8 | |
Arkansas | ![]() |
2014 | R+27.6 | R+33.7 | |
California | ![]() |
2010 | D+29.2 | D+18.6 | |
Colorado | ![]() |
2006 | D+13.5 | D+7.8 | |
Connecticut | ![]() |
2010 | D+20.1 | D+2.6 | |
Florida | ![]() |
2010 | R+3.3 | R+0.4 | |
Georgia | ![]() |
2002 | D+0.2 | R+1.4 | |
Hawaii | ![]() |
2010 | D+29.4 | D+29.0 | |
Idaho | ![]() |
1994 | R+30.7 | R+22.1 | |
Illinois | ![]() |
2018 | D+17.0 | D+15.0 | |
Iowa | ![]() |
2010 | R+8.2 | R+3.0 | |
Kansas | ![]() |
2018 | R+14.6 | D+4.5 | |
Maine | ![]() |
2018 | D+9.1 | D+7.6 | |
Maryland | ![]() |
2014 | D+33.2 | R+13.6 | |
Massachusetts | ![]() |
2014 | D+33.5 | R+33.8 | |
Michigan | ![]() |
2018 | D+2.8 | D+9.5 | |
Minnesota | ![]() |
2010 | D+7.1 | D+11.5 | |
Nebraska | ![]() |
1998 | R+19.1 | R+18.8 | |
Nevada | ![]() |
2018 | D+2.4 | D+4.1 | |
New Hampshire | ![]() |
2016 | D+7.3 | R+31.7 | |
New Mexico | ![]() |
2018 | D+10.8 | D+14.2 | |
New York | ![]() |
2006 | D+23.2 | D+22.2 | |
Ohio | ![]() |
2010 | R+8.1 | R+4.3 | |
Oklahoma | ![]() |
2010 | R+33.1 | R+12.1 | |
Oregon | ![]() |
1986 | D+16.1 | D+6.1 | |
Pennsylvania | ![]() |
2014 | D+1.2 | D+16.8 | |
Rhode Island | ![]() |
2010 | D+20.8 | D+15.3 | |
South Carolina | ![]() |
2002 | R+11.7 | R+8.0 | |
South Dakota | ![]() |
1978 | R+26.2 | R+3.4 | |
Tennessee | ![]() |
2010 | R+23.2 | R+21.1 | |
Texas | ![]() |
1994 | R+5.6 | R+13.4 | |
Vermont | ![]() |
2016 | D+35.1 | R+41.1 | |
Wisconsin | ![]() |
2018 | D+0.7 | D+1.2 | |
Wyoming | ![]() |
2010 | R+43.1 | R+39.7 | |
* denotes a term-limited incumbent. |
2022 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:
- Delaware Auditor election, 2022 (September 13 Democratic primary)
- Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022
- Oregon gubernatorial election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)
- Texas gubernatorial election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Alabama, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff)
See also
Arizona | State Executive Elections | News and Analysis |
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External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Kari Lake Bio," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Official Policy Release Immigration and Border Security," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ RealClear Politics, "AZ GOP Candidate Kari Lake: Inflation and Border Disaster Stem Directly From Corrupt 2020 Election," June 28, 2022
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 AP News, "Republicans square off in raucous Arizona governor debate," June 29, 2022
- ↑ YouTube, "More Than Talk | Karrin Taylor Robson," June 27, 2022
- ↑ Karrin Taylor Robson 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ YouTube, "Tough Plan," April 4, 2022
- ↑ Facebook, "Karrin Taylor Robson on June 14, 2022," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ AdImpact, "Turn Them Off," February 21, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Mirror, "GOP guv hopeful Karrin Taylor Robson: The 2020 election 'wasn’t fair' to Trump," May 5, 2022
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Arizona Republic, "Matt Salmon leaves race for Arizona governor," June 28, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Matt Salmon on June 29, 2022," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Mirror, "Matt Salmon exits guv race, leaving Kari Lake and Karrin Taylor Robson as top GOP contenders," June 28, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Karrin Taylor Robson for Arizona on July 18, 2022," accessed July 18, 2022
- ↑ SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
- ↑ SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
- ↑ SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
- ↑ SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
- ↑ 12 News, "Ducey endorses Taylor Robson in Arizona's Republican primary for governor," July 7, 2022
- ↑ OH Predictive Insights, "AZ GOP GOV RACE: With Salmon Out, Lake & Robson Battle for Nomination," July 6, 2022
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 AP News, "Republicans square off in raucous Arizona governor debate," June 29, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Robert C. Cahaly on June 17, 2022," accessed July 1, 2022
- ↑ OH Predictive Insights, "AZ GOP Gov Race Update: Robson, Lake Neck and Neck, Salmon Trailing," June 8, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Robert C. Cahaly on April 30, 2022," accessed July 1, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Republic "GOP candidate Steve Gaynor ends bid for Arizona governor," April 28, 2022
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 YouTube, "American Leadership Forum - Governor," February 5, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Republic, "Kimberly Yee drops out of Arizona governor's race, will run for reelection as treasurer," January 15, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Republic, "Kari Lake gets coveted endorsement from former President Trump in Arizona governor's race," September 28, 2021
- ↑ 29.0 29.1 Twitter, "Tony Cani on July 12, 2022," accessed July 12, 2022
- ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 Arizona Republic, "Who paid $2M to promote Kari Lake campaign? The source of donations remains unclear," July 19, 2022
- ↑ Center for Arizona Policy Action, "American Leadership Forum," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ RV=Registered Voters
LV=Likely Voters - ↑ The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
- ↑ Unsure
- ↑ Undecided
- ↑ Another candidate not listed: 4%; Unsure: 38%
- ↑ Withdrawn candidate Steve Gaynor: 6%; Undecided: 14%
- ↑ Withdrawn candidate Steve Gaynor: 3%; Refused: 1%; Unsure: 35%
- ↑ RV=Registered Voters
LV=Likely Voters - ↑ The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
- ↑ Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 11%; Unsure: 46%
- ↑ Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 9%; Unsure: 51%
- ↑ Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 13%; Unsure: 53%
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
- ↑ 2020 election for New Hampshire and Vermont.
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