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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)

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2026
2018
Governor of Arizona
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 4, 2022
Primary: August 2, 2022
General: November 8, 2022

Pre-election incumbent(s):
Doug Ducey (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2022
Impact of term limits in 2022
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
Arizona
executive elections
Governor

Attorney General
Secretary of State
Treasurer
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Corporation Commission (2 seats)
Mine Inspector

Kari Lake defeated Karrin Taylor Robson, Scott Neely, and Paola Tulliani-Zen in the Republican primary for governor of Arizona on August 2, 2022. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) was term-limited.

Heading into the primary, Lake and Taylor Robson led in endorsements, polls, and funding.

Lake, a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, Arizona, said she was "running ... on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage."[1] Lake said, "The ongoing border crisis is nothing less than a national security and humanitarian disaster. ... I will not wait for Washington’s approval or rely on the empty promises of far-away politicians to do what’s best for Arizonans."[2] She said, "After I take my hand off the Bible, we are going to issue a declaration of invasion. We are going to finish President Trump's wall, and we are going to send our armed National Guard to the border and stop people from coming across."[3]

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Lake, along with U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), U.S. Reps. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the Conservative Political Action Coalition, and the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.

Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents and founder of a land-use strategy firm, said, "We need a leader with a record of accomplishment, not a career talker with the teleprompter."[4] She said, "I built my own businesses. I do more than talk for a living."[5] Taylor Robson said that border security would be her first priority and that she would "surge National Guard troops to the border, equip the Border Strike Force with the latest technology, and finish the wall."[6][7] She also said, "I am uniquely qualified to lead this state into the future and to secure and protect Arizona’s water. My experience includes decades managing land, water and other natural resource issues, as well as working with government at all levels."[8]

Former Vice President Mike Pence (R), Ducey, and former Arizona Govs. Jan Brewer (R) and John Fife Symington III (R) endorsed Taylor Robson, as did Arizona state Senate President Karen Fann (R), Americans for Prosperity, and the National Border Patrol Council.

Lake said she would not have certified the results of the 2020 presidential election. She said that President Joe Biden (D) "lost the election and he shouldn’t be in the White House."[4] In a campaign ad, Lake said, "If you're watching this ad right now, it means you're in the middle of watching a fake news program. You know how to know it's fake? Because they won't even cover the biggest story out there, the rigged election of 2020."[9]

Taylor Robson said, "Joe Biden may be the president, but the election wasn’t fair. States across the country changed their voting rules in the weeks and months before the election; the mainstream media generally refused to cover stories harmful to Joe Biden; and Big Tech actively suppressed conservative voices. No wonder a sizable percentage of Arizona Republicans still feel the way they do about 2020."[10]

On June 28, 2022, former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon withdrew from the primary, saying, "Republican primary voters deserve more than having their votes split[.]"[11] Salmon endorsed Taylor Robson on June 29.[12] Salmon's withdrawal came after the deadline for his name to be removed from the ballot.[13]

Patrick Finerd, Carlos Roldan, and Alex Schatz ran as write-ins in the primary.

As of August 2, 2022, major independent observers rated the general election as a toss-up. Ducey was first elected in 2014 and won re-election in 2018 by a margin of 14 percentage points. At the time of the election, Republicans had held trifecta control of Arizona state government since 2009.

Kari Lake (R), Scott Neely (R), Paola Tulliani-Zen (R), and Patrick Finerd (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.

This page focuses on Arizona's Republican Party gubernatorial primary. For more in-depth information on Arizona's Democratic gubernatorial primary and the general election, see the following pages:

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Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for Governor of Arizona

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kari Lake
Kari Lake Candidate Connection
 
48.0
 
398,860
Image of Karrin Taylor Robson
Karrin Taylor Robson
 
43.1
 
358,682
Image of Matt Salmon
Matt Salmon (Unofficially withdrew)
 
3.7
 
30,704
Image of Scott Neely
Scott Neely Candidate Connection
 
3.1
 
25,876
Image of Paola Tulliani-Zen
Paola Tulliani-Zen Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
17,281
Carlos Roldan (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
42
Alex Schatz (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
39
Image of Patrick Finerd
Patrick Finerd (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
24

Total votes: 831,508
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican gubernatorial primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Kari Lake

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "Kari Lake, the former anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, became a symbol of truth in journalism when she walked away from the mainstream media despite being number one in the ratings for more than two decades. Now she's running for Governor of Arizona on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage. Kari Lake continues to be a voice for the silent majority suffering at the hands of cancel culture, critical race theory, and the devastating effects progressive policies are piling up on America's formerly great cities."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


Securing our Border is essential for the safety and security of Arizona's future. I will finish Trump's Wall & stop Biden's cartel-controlled flood at our borders


Secure elections are essential to preserve our Republic, and our state.


Arizona faces enormous challenges, we need a visionary leader to take them head-on

This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.

Image of Scott Neely

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I am an ultra-conservative, multiple small business owner running for Arizona Governor. I have self-funded my campaign thus far, and would just like the opportunity to allow Arizonan's to get to know me and understand my unique vision for Arizona. I am a blue-collared, middle class, worker who wants to free the Arizona middle class. What motivated me to run was the simple fact that the other candidates running do not understand what the middle class life is like, when middle class workers are the foundation of Arizona. Being a part of the people and working beside them every day gives me a unique point of view. I want to make Arizona a place where people love to work, play, and live. Right now, people are beginning to believe that their are only 4 republican candidates for governor, and it is my goal to change that and give them a different option, an option that involves me. I am confident that if the media was not biased against people like myself, without millions of dollars to spend on my campaign, I would receive exposure and the people of Arizona would enjoy my perspective and what I have to offer them. Again, I am with the people, and I am for the people, and I want to continue being for them if I am elected governor."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


I have personally helped build sections of the border wall in Douglas, Yuma, and Nogales, and as governor, I will offer my hands-on labor, my company's equipment, and my crews to do it again. Arizona tax-payers have already paid for the materials, so I will take and apply THEIR steel where it belongs to protect our state from human and drug traffickers, and any other threats. Arizonan's work hard for their money, and I will not let their, already paid for steel, continue to rust away at the hands of the Biden Administration.


Arizona water, food, and energy is one of my top priorities, and as governor, I want to address the current drought conditions that are negatively impacting Arizonan's, including the tribal communities and our farmers. I want to offer the implementation of a desalinization plant in California for a cut of their portion of Colorado River water. Arizona is reaching dangerously low levels, and I want a solution that would stimulate American jobs, while saving our precious water.


Election integrity has been a concern for a large amount of Arizonan's, and I want them to be assured that, when I am in the position to do so, I will travel every avenue to figure out the result of the 2020 audit. I have had the opportunity to meet with fellow Arizonan's who worked on the audit, and can comfortably say that our election was fraudulent and purposefully deceitful. As the results of the audit sit on the desk of our current Attorney General, it has not been addressed and I plan to do the opposite to restore election integrity that have left Arizonan's with distrust.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.

Image of Karrin Taylor Robson

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • Arizona Board of Regents (2017-2021)

Biography:  Taylor Robson studied history and political science at Arizona State University before attending law school at Arizona State University College of Law. Taylor Robson's professional experience includes working as a partner in a law firm, working as executive vice president of a real estate development company, and founding AZ Strategies, a land use strategy firm.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Taylor Robson said, "[S]ecuring the border will be my top priority." She said she would "surge National Guard troops to the border, equip the Border Strike Force with the latest technology, and finish the wall."


Taylor Robson said, "I am uniquely qualified to lead this state into the future and to secure and protect Arizona’s water. My experience includes decades managing land, water and other natural resource issues, as well as working with government at all levels. ... As Arizona Governor, I refuse to oversee a managed decline. Under my leadership, we will protect consumers, preserve legacy industries, defend Arizona’s way of life and plan for the future by augmenting supplies and improving efficiency."


Taylor Robson said, "We need a leader with a record of accomplishment, not a career talker with the teleprompter." She said, "I built my own businesses. I do more than talk for a living."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.

Image of Paola Tulliani-Zen

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I am Paula Tuilliani-Zen your Republican candidate for Arizona Governor. I came from humble beginnings and am self-made. When I lost my father at 14 and later lost my brother, I learned life lessons… and developed job skills. I learned trades from the ground up and rose in business to the managerial level (in accounting, financial planning, marketing, leadership, and sales). Through grit and determination, I led teams and got things done while still being a people person. I developed business acumen and learned how small business is the lifeblood of Arizona. I built, operated and later sold "La Dolce Vita Biscotti Company" which continues to this day in Glendale Arizona. When I’m your new governor, good governance will return, and so will prosperity. I’ll donate my salary, and will devote my time to job creation, traditional academics in schools, lawful immigration at the border, fighting child sex trafficking, preserving our gun rights, and our natural resources…plus providing opportunities for all."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


Border • Unite with other Governors to demand that Congress amend the immigration status that currently is a national disaster. United Governors will reach out to Mexican leaders to create a cohesive deterrent plan. • Immigration/Asylum Judges/Hearing Officers are placed at the borders to address credible claims and issues. Most would be immediately returned to Mexico. • Add deputies to support sheriffs and authorize them to arrest and deport as previously under Trump. The Governor, Attorney General, and Arizona Sheriffs would organize and execute a strategy to protect Americans. • Place National Guard troops to reinforce border patrol agents with the entire force of military. • Implement defense technology and finish the border wall.


Revolutionize the Education System • Reduce class sizes for better student performance and teacher success. • Acquire and implement proven, successful curriculums. • Vocational curriculum to help students discover their talents and prepare for diverse opportunities. • School Vouchers for all parents. • Mandatory tutoring where needed. Give real meaning to “No child left behind.” • Funding for pro-American programs only and empowerment classes. No CRT, Gender, or Sex Education.


Economic Opportunity • I will help create job opportunities that remove barriers to success. When people keep more of what they earn, everyone in Arizona will benefit. • Cut regulations on businesses and free up capital for companies to expand and hire more employees. • Search out companies to relocate to Arizona that will benefit our state. •I have not only built businesses, but I have also built a successful brand that has outlived my stewardship, “Success happens when we are prepared.”

This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.

Image of Patrick Finerd

FacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I am ready to fight and protect her all the Arizonans and protect and fight for our Constitution and Bill of Rights. I will protect our borders"


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


Election integrity


Border security


Second amendment And constitution also Bill of Rights protected

This information was current as of the candidate's run for Governor of Arizona in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

Election integrity

Border security

Second amendment And constitution also Bill of Rights protected
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Securing our Border is essential for the safety and security of Arizona's future. I will finish Trump's Wall & stop Biden's cartel-controlled flood at our borders

Secure elections are essential to preserve our Republic, and our state.

Arizona faces enormous challenges, we need a visionary leader to take them head-on
I have personally helped build sections of the border wall in Douglas, Yuma, and Nogales, and as governor, I will offer my hands-on labor, my company's equipment, and my crews to do it again. Arizona tax-payers have already paid for the materials, so I will take and apply THEIR steel where it belongs to protect our state from human and drug traffickers, and any other threats. Arizonan's work hard for their money, and I will not let their, already paid for steel, continue to rust away at the hands of the Biden Administration.

Arizona water, food, and energy is one of my top priorities, and as governor, I want to address the current drought conditions that are negatively impacting Arizonan's, including the tribal communities and our farmers. I want to offer the implementation of a desalinization plant in California for a cut of their portion of Colorado River water. Arizona is reaching dangerously low levels, and I want a solution that would stimulate American jobs, while saving our precious water.

Election integrity has been a concern for a large amount of Arizonan's, and I want them to be assured that, when I am in the position to do so, I will travel every avenue to figure out the result of the 2020 audit. I have had the opportunity to meet with fellow Arizonan's who worked on the audit, and can comfortably say that our election was fraudulent and purposefully deceitful. As the results of the audit sit on the desk of our current Attorney General, it has not been addressed and I plan to do the opposite to restore election integrity that have left Arizonan's with distrust.
Border • Unite with other Governors to demand that Congress amend the immigration status that currently is a national disaster. United Governors will reach out to Mexican leaders to create a cohesive deterrent plan. • Immigration/Asylum Judges/Hearing Officers are placed at the borders to address credible claims and issues. Most would be immediately returned to Mexico. • Add deputies to support sheriffs and authorize them to arrest and deport as previously under Trump. The Governor, Attorney General, and Arizona Sheriffs would organize and execute a strategy to protect Americans. • Place National Guard troops to reinforce border patrol agents with the entire force of military. • Implement defense technology and finish the border wall.

Revolutionize the Education System • Reduce class sizes for better student performance and teacher success. • Acquire and implement proven, successful curriculums. • Vocational curriculum to help students discover their talents and prepare for diverse opportunities. • School Vouchers for all parents. • Mandatory tutoring where needed. Give real meaning to “No child left behind.” • Funding for pro-American programs only and empowerment classes. No CRT, Gender, or Sex Education.

Economic Opportunity • I will help create job opportunities that remove barriers to success. When people keep more of what they earn, everyone in Arizona will benefit. • Cut regulations on businesses and free up capital for companies to expand and hire more employees. • Search out companies to relocate to Arizona that will benefit our state. •I have not only built businesses, but I have also built a successful brand that has outlived my stewardship, “Success happens when we are prepared.”
All areas and also I will fight for the constitution and bill rights it will be protected in the state of Arizona
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Securing our border & our elections while locating and developing a new source of fresh water, reducing inflation and out-of-control housing costs, quality education with a renewed focus on technical education, creating smart economic growth, addressing our homelessness crisis, ensuring our businesses, churches and gyms are never closed again, and putting a stop to spiraling crime rates that are making our cities and towns less safe. Arizona faces enormous challenges. We cannot continue to do business and usual and expect anything to change. Our next leader must be a visionary with the courage to take them head-on.
At this time, the border wall, or the lack there of, is my biggest situation that I want to take care of. With that comes the issue of immigration as a whole. I have spend the last 17 years, physically, helping build the border wall and I have become seriously concerned about the failure of it thus far. I am unhappy with the way this problem has been addressed. The solution is simple but our federal and state government has made it difficult. As long as this issue remains, the American people are at risk, and that does not sit well with me. Truly, it never will. Arizona is at risk of the exposure of drug smuggling, human trafficking, and even death. Immigration has turned into a concept of taking care of others before our own, and that is not the foundation that our constitution was built on. We must take care of our American people before we are in any position to take care of anyone else. As Arizonan's, we are facing issues like homelessness, addiction, and lack of senior care, and it will never be okay to put the needs of our people to the side. It is unfortunate that people feel the need to seek asylum here in our country, but we are not at the capacity to fund their solutions. If there is anything that I care about, it is about border policies, immigration, and the impact it has on the Arizonan's and Americans in their homes.
I am passionate about Real Youth Prison Reform for Arizona.

As Governor, I will not let our young people doing time in state prison facilities be left to themselves and to perils that await them when they are released. We will take an active interest in their rehabilitation through academic education, drug and alcohol awareness programs, and religious instruction. To this last point, when young people begin to gain knowledge of things that are bigger than themselves, and this may be controversial I know, but it truly begins to shed a light on becoming a better person.

As Governor, I will give them that chance without apology. What better crime prevention solution is there than a changed life? It is a terrible and wretched system that allows the youth in jail to become trapped in the system where they ultimately spend a lifetime in the prison culture. Real freedom comes when everyone is given opportunities to make good choices that lead to good and virtuous lives that aid and not plague mankind. There but by the grace of God is more than a saying, it is a call to build a path to redemption for those who need it the most. It makes us fight harder for the unfortunate and the downcast who have been deemed irredeemable.

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

President Trump. Love him or hate him, he got things done, even when everyone in the corporate media and political classes said it was impossible. Arizona needs that same type of bold leadership.
I look up to our former President, Donald J. Trump, and I am now following his example to spread patriotism across our state. I look up to President Trump because he is unapologetic, blunt, honest to a fault and always America First. He has fearlessly stood up for the people of this country and took on hatred for the sake of our freedom. He was aware of the turmoil that modern technology has created and never backed down. He has done more for this country than he has ever been given credit for, until now. We need more patriots like him to fight for what is right, and I could never be more thankful that he has opened up different perspectives for American people to see for themselves.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Read and explore outside of traditional media sources who have been wrong about almost everything for years now. Legacy media is about ratings, not truth.
Three places you can look to try and understand my political philosophy would be the Bible, the American Constitution, and the Bill of Rights.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Integrity and courage
An elected official should be a follower of god, shows work ethic and integrity, understand and follows the American Constitution, and never infringes on the rights of the people. Most importantly, they should know the importance of individualism and property rights and how those are tied to government overregulation.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

I am convicted, not held back by political convention. Politics has become the art of saying everything, and accomplishing nothing. I do not accept that outcome. We need a governor with the courage to take on big challenges.
I know how to run a successful, honest, service based business aimed at pleasing customers the same way as I aim to please the people I will serve as governor.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

To provide smart, decisive leadership for every citizen of our state.
The core responsibilities for someone elected to the governor's office, are to protect state's rights, state's land, state's resources, and most of all, the state's citizens.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

A better state than the one we've had. But, more specifically, the next governor of Arizona must address our looming water crisis in a sustainable, permanent manner, while also working to fix Arizona's housing shortage and ensuring our next phase of growth doesn't make our state and our biggest cities unlivable the way it has on our coasts.
I would like to leave Arizona in better fiscal shape. Most importantly, I would like to leave Arizona water resources more plentiful than they were prior to my administration through water recharge storage of underground aquifers.
The first historical event that happened in my lifetime would have to be September 11, 2001. I was 19 years old at the time and getting ready to start a concrete job that I was hired for at 5 a'clock in the morning. After 9/11 occurred, I vowed to be the most patriotic man that I could be, and vowed to protect our nation in any way that I could.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Production Assistant, WBHF-TV, 2 years
I started my first company in high school when I was 17 years old in January of 1997. I named it "Instant Lawn & Rock Services", and I provided the full package including landscape design, installation, concrete installation, masonry installation, sprinkler & drip irrigation systems and installation and more. Instant Lawn & Rock Services lasted until I graduated high school and went to work for my father in sales and marketing at BestLine Materials Inc full time, until my fathers death in 2002.
"Lord of the Flies" is my favorite book. Although, I was young when I read it, it has stuck with me all the way into my adult years and now. The book entails stranded boys on an island and their failed attempt to govern themselves. Now, this book reminds me of the current political struggles we are suffering through as a nation and is still relevant today.
If I could be a fictional character, I would choose to be Captain America.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Ring of Fire
"I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" by Arrowsmith, the first song that I danced to as a newly wed to my wife, Maria.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Raising kids in an increasingly disconnected and digital world. Our kids have it tougher than we ever did, and we have to do a better job of nurturing, protecting, but also pushing them to succeed. And trying to inject some reality into an increasingly dystopian and dishonest news industry.
The biggest struggle that I have faced is the red tape tied to government regulation and how it impacts my small businesses while illegal immigrants run parallel businesses to mine with zero government regulation.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

It means leading by working with our legislature and stakeholders to put Arizona and Arizonans first, and not being held back by political convention or convenience.
To me, a governor is an individual who holds great responsibility in representing all Arizonans. It is a duty and a privilege to be trusted by a state's people and it is the highest honor that must not be taken for granted. It is a position that has been abused, but it is now a position that must be better used to serve the people and not politicians.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Protecting the lives and livelihoods of Arizonans by securing our border, elections, and the safety of our citizens, and preserving our quality of life for future generations.
In the state of Arizona, the governor is directly responsible for the use of 30% of the yearly state budget. This responsibility, outside the legislature, this budget must be used for the good of the people and not abused. This responsibility is unique and the most critical part of being an Arizona Governor.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

The Governor should lead the budgeting process, but be willing to work closely with the legislature to ensure the fair and principled allocation of resources while maintaining a clear-eyed focus on keeping taxes and regulations as low and reasonable as possible to encourage continued economic growth.
As mentioned previously, the Arizona Governor is responsible for 30% of the yearly state budget. I think The Arizona Governor already has too much involvement in appropriation of the state yearly budget. I personally believe that the appropriate degree of involvement, in terms of budgeting, should be settled in the legislature and lowered. Governors in Arizona have too much power in this process.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Arizona's Constitution limits line item vetoes to appropriations items, so my focus would be on identifying and eliminating wasteful or unnecessary spending that is tied into otherwise valuable efforts.
Our Arizona Constitution gives governors the power to line-item veto. I believe that it is appropriate to use this power when it is in direct violation of our American Constitution in any way shape or form.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

The Governor should work hand-in-hand with the legislature. We may not always - or, depending on the individual legislator, almost ever - agree, but we can agree to sit down and listen to each other. I have pledged to meet annually with each member of the legislature to hash out our respective priorities and see what issues we may agree on and find room to work together to achieve.
The ideal relationship would be equal involvement in governing the state. At the moment, I believe that both positions have had a power struggle, and it serves no purpose for the citizens. The ideal relationship would be a relationship that serves to better assist Arizonans as opposed to struggling over who has more authority over law-making.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Our independent Western heritage and the enormous diversity of our people and land.
The thing I love the most about Arizona is that we have the most lax gun laws and some of the lowest crime rates in America.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Border security, elections integrity, water, homelessness, housing, crime... We have a huge list of major issues that the next governor cannot ignore.
I believe that our greatest challenge facing Arizona is the water shortage as our state is continuously growing at a record pace. There is not a sufficient amount of water to sustain the population increase in Arizona and unless it is addressed, then we are facing a drought like we have never seen.
"I am running for governor." Many people find this humorous until proven true.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KariLake.jpg

Kari Lake (R)

Emergency orders should only be used under very limited circumstances, and for a very short period of time (maximum of 30 days) without the approval and consent of the legislature, and shutdowns of businesses, churches, and community facilities should never happen again.
Only under the circumstances of war, severe casualties, or during times of severe disaster, should a governor be able to use emergency powers.



Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Kari Lake

June 7, 2021
June 1, 2021

View more ads here:


Republican Party Scott Neely

July 23, 2022
May 31, 2022
May 2, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Karrin Taylor Robson

July 14, 2022
July 14, 2022
July 7, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Paola Tulliani-Zen

July 28, 2022
July 28, 2022
July 21, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Patrick Finerd

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Patrick Finerd while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.


Republican Party Carlos Roldan

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Carlos Roldan while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.


Republican Party Alex Schatz

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Alex Schatz while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.


Satellite ads

This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.

American Focus PAC

American Focus PAC spent $225,000 running the following ad opposing Lake:[29]

July 11, 2022
Put Arizona First PAC

Put Arizona First PAC spent $1.1 million on materials opposing Robson, including the following ad:[30]

May 3, 2022

Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

June 29, 2022

On June 29, Lake, Neely, Taylor Robson, and Tulliani-Zen participated in a televised debate hosted by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission.[21]

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

February 5, 2022

On February 5, Lake, Gaynor, Salmon, and Taylor Robson participated in a forum hosted by the Center for Arizona Policy.[26][31]

Noteworthy endorsements

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Republican primary endorsements
Endorser Republican Party Kari Lake Republican Party Karrin Taylor Robson
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R)  source  
U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar (R)  source  
U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)  source  
Gov. Doug Ducey (R)  source  
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R)  source  
Idaho Gov. Brad Little (R)  source  
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R)  source  
State Sen. Nancy K. Barto (R)  source  
State Sen. Pres. Karen Fann (R)  source  
State Sen. Wendy Rogers (R)  source  
State Sen. Thomas Shope (R)  source  
State Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R)  source  
State Rep. John Fillmore (R)  source  
State Rep. John Kavanagh (R)  source  
State Rep. Teresa Martinez (R)  source  
Individuals
Frmr. Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio  source  
Frmr. U.S. Sec. of Education William J. Bennett  source  
Frmr. Arizona Gov. Janice Kay Brewer  source  
Frmr. National Security Advisor Michael Flynn  source  
Frmr. U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich  source  
Frmr. New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani  source  
Frmr. Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell  source  
Frmr. Acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Tom Homan  source  
Frmr. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee  source  
MyPillow founder Mike Lindell  source  
Frmr. White House advisor Stephen Moore  source  
Frmr. White House advisor Peter Navarro  source  
Frmr. Vice President Mike Pence  source  
Frmr. U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon  source  
Frmr. Arizona Gov. John Fife Symington III  source  
Frmr. President Donald Trump  source  
Organizations
American Principles Project  source  
Americans for Prosperity  source  
Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs  source  
Arizona Fraternal Order of Police  source  
Arizona Police Association  source  
BlakPAC  source  
Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Arizona  source  
Conservative Political Action Coalition  source  
National Border Patrol Council  source  
National Troopers Coalition  source  
Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona  source  
Republican National Hispanic Assembly  source  
Stand for Health Freedom  source  
Women for America First  source  

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[32] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[33] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022: Republican primary election polls
Poll Date Republican Party Lake Republican Party Taylor Robson Republican Party Salmon Republican Party Tulliani-Zen Republican Party Neely Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[34] Sponsor[35]
OH Predictive Insights June 30 - July 2, 2022 40% 35% -- -- -- 21%[36] ± 4.3 515 LV --
Trafalgar Group June 14 - 16, 2022 39% 27% 15% 2% 1% 17%[37] ± 2.9 1,068 LV --
OH Predictive Insights May 9 - 16, 2022 23% 21% 14% -- -- 42%[38] ± 5.9 281 LV --
Trafalgar Group April 25 - 28, 2022 38% 27% 11% 2% 2% 20%[39] ± 3.0 1,064 LV --
OH Predictive Insights April 4 - 5, 2022 29% 22% 11% -- -- 39%[40] ± 4.4 500 LV --


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[46]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[47][48][49]

Race ratings: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

The tables below contain data from financial reports submitted to state agencies. The data is gathered and made available by Transparency USA. Transparency USA tracks loans separately from total contributions. View each candidates’ loan totals, if any, by clicking “View More” in the table below and learn more about this data here.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[50][51][52]

If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

Satellite spending in Arizona gubernatorial election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
Organization Amount Date Purpose
Put Arizona First PAC[30]$1 millionMay-June 2022Supporting Lake
Put Arizona First PAC[30]$1.1 millionMay-June 2022Opposing Taylor Robson
American Focus PAC[29]$225,000July 2022Opposing Lake

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Arizona and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Arizona, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Arizona's 1st David Schweikert Ends.png Republican R+2
Arizona's 2nd Tom O'Halleran Electiondot.png Democratic R+6
Arizona's 3rd Ruben Gallego Electiondot.png Democratic D+24
Arizona's 4th Greg Stanton Electiondot.png Democratic D+2
Arizona's 5th Andy Biggs Ends.png Republican R+11
Arizona's 6th Open Electiondot.png Democratic R+3
Arizona's 7th Raul Grijalva Electiondot.png Democratic D+15
Arizona's 8th Debbie Lesko Ends.png Republican R+10
Arizona's 9th Paul Gosar Ends.png Republican R+16


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Arizona[53]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Arizona's 1st 50.1% 48.6%
Arizona's 2nd 45.3% 53.2%
Arizona's 3rd 74.5% 23.9%
Arizona's 4th 54.2% 43.9%
Arizona's 5th 41.0% 57.4%
Arizona's 6th 49.3% 49.2%
Arizona's 7th 65.6% 32.9%
Arizona's 8th 42.5% 56.1%
Arizona's 9th 36.4% 62.2%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 9 Democratic wins
  • 19 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R D R R R R R D

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.

U.S. Senate election results in Arizona
Race Winner Runner up
2020 51.2%Democratic Party 48.8%Republican Party
2018 50.0%Democratic Party 47.6%Republican Party
2016 53.7%Republican Party 40.8%Democratic Party
2012 49.2%Republican Party 46.1%Democratic Party
2010 59.2%Republican Party 34.7%Democratic Party
Average 52.7 43.6

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Arizona

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.

Gubernatorial election results in Arizona
Race Winner Runner up
2018 56.0%Republican Party 41.8%Democratic Party
2014 53.4%Democratic Party 41.6%Republican Party
2010 54.3%Republican Party 42.4%Democratic Party
2006 62.6%Democratic Party 35.4%Republican Party
2002 46.2%Democratic Party 45.2%Republican Party
Average 54.5 41.3

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 2 5 7
Republican 0 4 4
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 9 11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Arizona, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Doug Ducey
Secretary of State Democratic Party Katie Hobbs
Attorney General Republican Party Mark Brnovich

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Arizona State Legislature as of November 2022.

Arizona State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 14
     Republican Party 16
     Vacancies 0
Total 30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 29
     Republican Party 31
     Vacancies 0
Total 60

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Arizona was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Arizona
Arizona United States
Population 7,151,502 331,449,281
Land area (sq mi) 113,654 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 73.8% 70.4%
Black/African American 4.5% 12.6%
Asian 3.3% 5.6%
Native American 4.3% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.2%
Other (single race) 6.9% 5.1%
Multiple 7% 5.2%
Hispanic/Latino 31.5% 18.2%
Education
High school graduation rate 87.9% 88.5%
College graduation rate 30.3% 32.9%
Income
Median household income $61,529 $64,994
Persons below poverty level 14.1% 12.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2015-2020).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates in Arizona in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for gubernatorial candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source Notes
Arizona Governor Ballot-qualified party 0.25% of qualified signers in the state N/A 4/4/2022 Source
Arizona Governor Unaffiliated 3% of total registered voters in the state who are not members of a ballot-qualified political party N/A 4/4/2022 Source

Arizona gubernatorial election history

2018

See also: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018

General election

General election for Governor of Arizona

Incumbent Doug Ducey defeated David Garcia and Angel Torres in the general election for Governor of Arizona on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Doug Ducey
Doug Ducey (R)
 
56.0
 
1,330,863
Image of David Garcia
David Garcia (D)
 
41.8
 
994,341
Image of Angel Torres
Angel Torres (G)
 
2.1
 
50,962

Total votes: 2,376,166
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for Governor of Arizona

David Garcia defeated Steve Farley and Kelly Fryer in the Democratic primary for Governor of Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David Garcia
David Garcia
 
50.6
 
255,555
Image of Steve Farley
Steve Farley
 
32.3
 
163,072
Image of Kelly Fryer
Kelly Fryer Candidate Connection
 
17.2
 
86,810

Total votes: 505,437
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for Governor of Arizona

Incumbent Doug Ducey defeated Ken Bennett in the Republican primary for Governor of Arizona on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Doug Ducey
Doug Ducey
 
70.7
 
463,672
Image of Ken Bennett
Ken Bennett
 
29.3
 
191,775

Total votes: 655,447
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2014

See also: Arizona Gubernatorial election, 2014
Governor of Arizona, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 53.4% 805,062
     Democratic Fred DuVal 41.6% 626,921
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess 3.8% 57,337
     Americans Elect J.L. Mealer 1% 15,432
     Nonpartisan Write-ins 0.1% 1,664
Total Votes 1,506,416
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State

Republican-held governorship in state Biden won

See also: States won by Joe Biden in 2020 with Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022

This is one of six governorships Republicans were defending in states President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont.

Democrats were defending one governorship in a state that Donald Trump (R) won in 2020: Kansas.

The table below show which states held gubernatorial elections in 2022 and the last presidential and gubernatorial margin of victory in each. Click [show] on the right below to expand the table.


2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

Arizona State Executive Elections News and Analysis
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Arizona elections: 2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
Party control of state government
State government trifectas
State of the state addresses
Partisan composition of governors

External links

Footnotes

  1. Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Kari Lake Bio," accessed June 29, 2022
  2. Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Official Policy Release Immigration and Border Security," accessed June 29, 2022
  3. RealClear Politics, "AZ GOP Candidate Kari Lake: Inflation and Border Disaster Stem Directly From Corrupt 2020 Election," June 28, 2022
  4. 4.0 4.1 AP News, "Republicans square off in raucous Arizona governor debate," June 29, 2022
  5. YouTube, "More Than Talk | Karrin Taylor Robson," June 27, 2022
  6. Karrin Taylor Robson 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed June 29, 2022
  7. YouTube, "Tough Plan," April 4, 2022
  8. Facebook, "Karrin Taylor Robson on June 14, 2022," accessed June 29, 2022
  9. AdImpact, "Turn Them Off," February 21, 2022
  10. Arizona Mirror, "GOP guv hopeful Karrin Taylor Robson: The 2020 election 'wasn’t fair' to Trump," May 5, 2022
  11. 11.0 11.1 Arizona Republic, "Matt Salmon leaves race for Arizona governor," June 28, 2022
  12. Twitter, "Matt Salmon on June 29, 2022," accessed June 29, 2022
  13. Arizona Mirror, "Matt Salmon exits guv race, leaving Kari Lake and Karrin Taylor Robson as top GOP contenders," June 28, 2022
  14. Twitter, "Karrin Taylor Robson for Arizona on July 18, 2022," accessed July 18, 2022
  15. SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
  16. SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
  17. SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
  18. SeeTheMoney, "Campaign Finance Report," July 15, 2022
  19. 12 News, "Ducey endorses Taylor Robson in Arizona's Republican primary for governor," July 7, 2022
  20. OH Predictive Insights, "AZ GOP GOV RACE: With Salmon Out, Lake & Robson Battle for Nomination," July 6, 2022
  21. 21.0 21.1 AP News, "Republicans square off in raucous Arizona governor debate," June 29, 2022
  22. Twitter, "Robert C. Cahaly on June 17, 2022," accessed July 1, 2022
  23. OH Predictive Insights, "AZ GOP Gov Race Update: Robson, Lake Neck and Neck, Salmon Trailing," June 8, 2022
  24. Twitter, "Robert C. Cahaly on April 30, 2022," accessed July 1, 2022
  25. Arizona Republic "GOP candidate Steve Gaynor ends bid for Arizona governor," April 28, 2022
  26. 26.0 26.1 YouTube, "American Leadership Forum - Governor," February 5, 2022
  27. Arizona Republic, "Kimberly Yee drops out of Arizona governor's race, will run for reelection as treasurer," January 15, 2022
  28. Arizona Republic, "Kari Lake gets coveted endorsement from former President Trump in Arizona governor's race," September 28, 2021
  29. 29.0 29.1 Twitter, "Tony Cani on July 12, 2022," accessed July 12, 2022
  30. 30.0 30.1 30.2 Arizona Republic, "Who paid $2M to promote Kari Lake campaign? The source of donations remains unclear," July 19, 2022
  31. Center for Arizona Policy Action, "American Leadership Forum," accessed June 29, 2022
  32. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  33. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  34. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  35. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  36. Unsure
  37. Undecided
  38. Another candidate not listed: 4%; Unsure: 38%
  39. Withdrawn candidate Steve Gaynor: 6%; Undecided: 14%
  40. Withdrawn candidate Steve Gaynor: 3%; Refused: 1%; Unsure: 35%
  41. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  42. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  43. Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 11%; Unsure: 46%
  44. Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 9%; Unsure: 51%
  45. Withdrawn candidates Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee, and Jorge Rivas: 13%; Unsure: 53%
  46. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  47. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  48. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  49. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  50. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  51. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  52. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
  53. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
  54. 2020 election for New Hampshire and Vermont.