Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
Texas' 15th Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: December 11, 2023
	Primary: March 5, 2024; Primary runoff: May 28, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in Texas
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Likely Republican; DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Republican; Inside Elections: Likely Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Texas' 15th Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 37th • 38th; Texas elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Texas 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • All other local • How to run for office

Incumbent Monica De La Cruz (R) defeated Michelle Vallejo (D) in the general election for Texas' 15th Congressional District on November 5, 2024. Click here for detailed results.

This was a rematch of the 2022 election. De La Cruz was first elected in 2022, defeating Vallejo 53.3% to 44.8%. De La Cruz ran against then-incumbent Vicente Gonzalez Jr. (D) in 2020. Gonzalez won 50.5% to 47.6%. De La Cruz was the first Republican to represent the district since it was created in 1901.^[1]^[2]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced it would support Vallejo as part of its Red to Blue program that backed challengers to Republican incumbents.^[3] Before the election, The Texas Tribune reported that "the DCCC decision is a shift from last cycle, when national Democratic groups opted to prioritize protecting incumbents in the neighboring 34th and 28th districts. That left little support for Vallejo, to the deep chagrin of local Democrats."^[3]

Following the March primaries, De La Cruz said that she represented the district in a bipartisan way, saying, "This past year I have had the honor of being a voice for all South Texans.”^[4] In an opinion article for Newsweek, she also said that Latino voters in the district favored Republican candidates in recent elections.^[5] De La Cruz said that Republican policies align with Latino values, saying, "With the Democrats in disarray, Republicans stand on the brink of making unparalleled gains with Latinos. Now is the time to establish a multi-ethnic working-class coalition."^[5]

De La Cruz ran multiple small businesses and was the owner of an insurance agency before she was elected in 2022.^[6] De La Cruz said, "The Biden Administration undid President Trump's successful border policies on the first day of its administration and has left the border wide open."^[7]^[8] De La Cruz said she would protect farmers from damages caused by illegal immigration and would support the Texas agriculture industry by eliminating regulations and tariffs.^[7]^[9] De La Cruz also said she wanted America to become energy independent and that she would promote oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy jobs.^[7]

At the time of the election, Vallejo was the co-owner of a local market.^[10] Vallejo said abortion should be a right and that abortion restrictions in Texas limited freedom. She said, "What we're facing in Texas is that fight where women and families are being pushed out of the state, forced to leave to get lifesaving care."^[11]^[12] She said the healthcare system "leaves many South Texans uninsured, underinsured, and one trip to the hospital away from bankruptcy" and that she supported expanding Medicaid and making healthcare cheaper.^[11] Vallejo said she would work to lower the cost of living for families in the district by creating more manufacturing and energy jobs, enforcing corporate taxes, and raising the minimum wage.^[11]

Based on third-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, De La Cruz raised $7.2 million and spent $6.1 million, and Vallejo raised $2.1 million and spent $2 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

Before the election, four major election forecasters each rated the general election Likely Republican.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[13] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[14] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 53.3%-44.8%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 51.0%-48.1%.^[15]

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Monica De La Cruz defeated Michelle Vallejo in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 15 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Monica De La Cruz (R)	57.1	127,804
	Michelle Vallejo (D)	42.9	95,965

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 223,769
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Arthur DiBianca (L)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Michelle Vallejo defeated John Villarreal Rigney in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Michelle Vallejo	74.7	21,456
	John Villarreal Rigney	25.3	7,268

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 28,724
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15

Incumbent Monica De La Cruz defeated Vangela Churchill in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Monica De La Cruz	88.2	30,972
	Vangela Churchill	11.8	4,140

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 35,112
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15

Arthur DiBianca advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 15 on March 23, 2024.

		Candidate
✔		Arthur DiBianca (L)

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Texas

Election information in Texas: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Oct. 7, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 7, 2024
Online: N/A

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

No

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Oct. 25, 2024
By mail: Received by Oct. 25, 2024
Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 21, 2024 to Nov. 1, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (CST/MST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Monica De La Cruz

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

U.S. House Texas District 15 (Assumed office: 2023)

Biography: De La Cruz earned a bachelor's degree in business from the University of Texas at San Antonio and studied Spanish at La Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. She was a small business owner and operated an insurance agency.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

De La Cruz said she supported reinstating immigration policies introduced during the Trump administration and that the Biden administration undid progress at the U.S.-Mexico border: “Cities in South Texas are now being overrun, local authorities are overwhelmed, taxpayer resources are strained, and Americans are at greater risk.”

De La Cruz said she opposed regulations and tariffs on the agriculture industry. She said immigration has hurt agriculture in Texas and that she believed farmers should “get reimbursed funds for confirmed damages due to illegal immigrant traffic.”

De La Cruz said she supported investment in oil, natural gas, and nuclear jobs that would help America become energy independent and opposed the policies of the Green New Deal.

Show sources

Sources: Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, "Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz Blasts Joe Biden's Border Catastrophe," May 11, 2023; Monica De La Cruz 2024 campaign website, "Issues," accessed June 16, 2024; Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, "About," accessed June 16, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Texas District 15 in 2024.

Michelle Vallejo

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography: Vallejo earned a bachelor’s degree in political science and history from Columbia University. She owned and operated a local market along with her family.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Vallejo said she was opposed to the government being involved in abortion-related decisions. She said, “Women should have the right to make their own decisions with their families, faith, and doctors—and not be criminalized for those choices.”

Vallejo said she would work to make healthcare affordable and accessible in the district and that “No one should have to cross the border into Mexico for affordable medical care and treatment, but that’s the reality in South Texas.” She said she supported expanding Medicaid, as well as increasing the areas of coverage provided by Medicare.

Vallejo said she supported increasing the minimum wage and linking it to the rate of inflation. She said she believed investing in manufacturing and energy jobs would decrease the cost of living.

Show sources

Sources: Michelle Vallejo 2024 campaign website, "Issues," accessed June 16, 2024; Michelle Vallejo 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed June 16, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Texas District 15 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Monica De La Cruz

October 21, 2024

September 30, 2024

September 19, 2024

View more ads here:

YouTube

Michelle Vallejo

View more ads here:

Facebook

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[16]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[17]^[18]^[19]

Race ratings: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Monica De La Cruz	Republican Party	$7,936,781	$7,375,028	$613,970	As of December 31, 2024
Michelle Vallejo	Democratic Party	$2,388,899	$2,382,803	$17,813	As of December 31, 2024
Arthur DiBianca	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. * Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[20]^[21]^[22]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Monica De La Cruz Michelle Vallejo	OpenSecrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Texas.

Texas U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	38	38	3	160	76	16	23	51.3%	19	54.3%
2022	38	38	6	222	76	17	27	57.9%	19	59.4%
2020	36	36	6	231	72	24	26	69.4%	18	60.0%
2018	36	36	8	212	72	25	21	63.9%	15	53.6%
2016	36	36	2	127	72	13	20	45.8%	19	55.9%
2014	36	36	1	100	72	6	13	26.4%	12	34.3%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Texas in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/29/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

In 2024, 164 candidates filed to run for Texas’ 38 U.S. House districts, including 63 Democrats and 101 Republicans. That was 4.3 candidates per district, the lowest number since 2016, when 3.5 candidates ran.

In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in Texas increased from 36 to 38, 5.8 candidates ran per district. In 2020, 6.4 candidates ran, and 5.8 candidates ran in 2018.

The 164 candidates who ran in 2024 were also the fewest total number to run since 2016, when 127 candidates ran. One hundred candidates ran for Texas’ then-36 districts in 2014, the fewest in the decade, while 231 ran in 2020, the decade-high.

Three seats were open. That was the fewest since 2016, when two seats were open. Six seats were open in 2022 and 2020, and eight were in 2018—the decade-high.

Reps. Kay Granger (R-12th) and Michael Burgess (R-26th) retired from public office. Rep. Colin Allred (D-32nd) didn't seek re-election in order to run for the U.S. Senate. Fourteen candidates—10 Democrats and 4 Republicans—ran for the open 32nd district, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.

Thirty-nine primaries—16 Democratic and 23 Republican—were contested this year. That was the fewest since 2016, when 33 were contested. There were 44 contested primaries in 2022, 50 in 2020, and 46 in 2018.

Nineteen incumbents—six Democrats and thirteen Republicans—faced primary challengers this year. That was the same number as 2022, and one more than in 2020.

Three districts—the 9th, the 20th, and the 30th—were guaranteed to Democrats because no Republicans filed to run. Five were guaranteed to Republicans because no Democrats filed to run—the 1st, the 11th, the 13th, the 19th, and the 25th.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 15th the 216th most Republican district nationally.^[23]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Texas' 15th based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
48.1%	51.0%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[24] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
50.8	47.0	R+3.8

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Texas, 2020

Texas presidential election results (1900-2020)

16 Democratic wins
15 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	D	D	D	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also: Party control of Texas state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Texas' congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Texas
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	0	13	13
Republican	2	25	27
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	38	40

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Texas' top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Texas, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Greg Abbott
Lieutenant Governor	Dan Patrick
Secretary of State	Jane Nelson
Attorney General	Ken Paxton

State legislature

Texas State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	11
	Republican Party	19
	Other	0
	Vacancies	1
Total		31

Texas House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	64
	Republican Party	86
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		150

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Texas Party Control: 1992-2024
Three years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Texas in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Texas	U.S. House	Democratic or Republican	2% of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 500, whichever is less	$3,125.00	12/11/2023	Source
Texas	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 500, whichever is less	N/A	12/11/2023	Source

District election history