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Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Democratic primary)

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2026
2022
Arizona's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 1, 2024
Primary: July 30, 2024
General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
Arizona's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Arizona elections, 2024
U.S. Congress elections, 2024
U.S. Senate elections, 2024
U.S. House elections, 2024

Yassamin Ansari (D) defeated Raquel Terán (D) and Duane Wooten (D) in the Democratic primary in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District on July 30, 2024. Following a recount, Ansari defeated Terán by 39 votes. Ansari received 44.6% of the vote, Terán received 44.5%, and Wooten received 10.9%.[1] In Arizona, automatic recounts are required if a candidate or measure is defeated by less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes petitioned the Maricopa County Superior Court for a recount of election results, and Judge Jennifer Ryan-Touhill ordered a recount of election results.[1] The recount took place from August 16 to August 19.[2] To learn more about the recount, click here.

Ansari and Terán led in noteworthy endorsements, polling, and fundraising. Incumbent Ruben Gallego (D) ran for U.S. Senate, leaving the district open.

According to Vox, the open-district race presented candidates with "a rare opportunity: The district is Arizona’s most Democratic region, it is majority Latino and working-class, and it has been represented by Gallego since 2014."[3] Citing Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo (D), Axios said "Ansari's biggest strength is her fundraising and Terán's is her grassroots background. Fundraising matters less in CD3 than in other districts...The low turnout in the district means TV ads, the staple of high-dollar campaigns everywhere, have less impact."[4]

Ansari was a former Phoenix city council member who earlier worked at the United Nations as a climate policy advisor. Ansari ran on her record, saying she expanded funding for programs serving working families and homeless residents, directed the police department to deprioritize enforcement of abortion-related crimes, and helped pass Phoenix's first climate action plan.[5] Ansari said she was running "because right now, we're at an inflection point...for far too many people, [the American Dream] is now out of reach."[6] As of July 30, 2024, Ansari had raised $1,886,723.73, including $171,033.65 in self-funding. Ansari's endorsers included U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D), one former and four current state legislators, and the Arizona Federation of Teachers.

Terán was a former state legislator, state party chairwoman, and community organizer. Terán ran on her organizing record, saying she was involved in the efforts to recall state Sen. Russell Pearce (R), to defeat the re-election campaigns of Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) in 2016 and President Donald Trump (R) in 2020, and to elect Democrats to statewide offices in 2022. Terán said she would organize voters in the district to help Democrats win statewide races: "Joe Biden won by 10,000 votes. Governor Hobbs won by 15,000. Let’s think positive and increase our votes. Those narrow margins can increase if our district, if a district like Congressional District Three, overperforms."[3] As of July 30, 2024, Terán had raised $1,166,034.15. Terán's endorsers included three U.S. senators, two U.S. representatives, 20 state legislators, and the Working Families Party.

As of July 30, 2024, four major race rating outlets each rated the general election Solid/Safe Democratic. In 2022, Gallego defeated Jeffrey Zink (R) 77.0%–23.0%.

All 435 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies.[7] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Democratic candidate won 77.0%-23.0%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 74.5%-23.9%.[8]

Yassamin Ansari (D) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.

This page focuses on Arizona's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election recount

Based on the certified results in this race, Yassamin Ansari (D) defeated Raquel Terán (D) by 42 votes.[9] Arizona law, automatic recounts are required if a candidate or measure is defeated by less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast. On August 12, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes petitioned the Maricopa County Superior Court for a recount of election results, and Judge Jennifer Ryan-Touhill ordered a recount of election results.[1]

The recount took place from August 16 to August 19.[2] Based on final results, Ansari defeated Terán by 39 votes.[1]

Recount timeline

Below is a timeline of the recount, including rulings and vote totals.

  • August 20, 2024: Ryan-Touhill ruled that Ansari won by 39 votes.[1]
  • August 19, 2024: The recount ended.[2]
  • August 16, 2024: The recount began.[2]
  • August 15, 2024: Fontes canvassed the statewide election results.[10]
  • August 12, 2024:
    • The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors canvassed the election results, which showed that Ansari defeated Terán by 42 votes. Ansari received 44.58% of the vote, Terán received 44.48%, and Wooten received 10.95%.[11]
    • Secretary of State Adrian Fontes petitioned the Maricopa County Superior Court for a recount of election results, and Judge Jennifer Ryan-Touhill ordered a recount of election results.[1]

Recount laws in Arizona

See also: Recount laws in Arizona

The list below shows answers to common questions regarding recounts in Arizona.[12]

  • Does state law require automatic recounts?
    • Yes, when a margin of victory in an election is less than or equal to 0.5% of total votes cast.
  • When must an automatic recount be completed?
    • No set deadline.
  • Can a recount be requested?
    • Recounts may not be requested in this state.
  • Who pays for a requested recount?
    • Recounts may not be requested in this state.
  • Is a refund available for requested recount costs?
    • Not applicable. State law does not allow requested recounts.
  • Can a partial recount be requested?
    • No.

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Yassamin Ansari defeated Raquel Terán and Duane Wooten in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on July 30, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Yassamin Ansari
Yassamin Ansari Candidate Connection
 
44.6
 
19,087
Image of Raquel Terán
Raquel Terán
 
44.5
 
19,045
Image of Duane Wooten
Duane Wooten
 
10.9
 
4,687

Total votes: 42,819
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Voting information

See also: Voting in Arizona

Election information in Arizona: July 30, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: July 1, 2024
  • By mail: Received by July 1, 2024
  • Online: July 1, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: July 19, 2024
  • By mail: Received by July 19, 2024
  • Online: July 19, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: July 30, 2024
  • By mail: Received by July 30, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What were the early voting start and end dates?

July 3, 2024 to July 26, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

6:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (MST)


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Yassamin Ansari

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I served as the Vice Mayor of Phoenix and made history as the youngest woman ever elected to the Phoenix City Council, representing one of the most diverse districts in the nation’s fifth-largest and fastest growing city. The proud daughter of immigrants and graduate of Stanford and Cambridge universities, I led the charge to pass the city’s landmark Climate Action Plan, fought for the protection of reproductive rights, and secured millions in free tuition for students pursuing community college and good trade jobs. As I take the fight to Congress, working families will continue to be my focus. From championing housing affordability to advancing bold climate action, and from protecting reproductive freedom to strengthening workers’ rights, I will strive every day to better the lives of Arizonans."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


I’m the proud daughter of immigrants and I’m running for office because of their experiences. I’ve dedicated my life’s work to public service because this country welcomed them with open arms and opportunity when they desperately needed it. They may have found their American dream, but as their daughter, I know that for far too many people, that dream is now out of reach.


As Councilwoman, I’ve championed housing affordability, climate action, reproductive freedom, workers' rights, and education, with proven results. I led the charge to pass the city's first Climate Action Plan and Transportation Electrification Action Plan, and helped secure hundreds of millions for new parks, roadways, fire stations and infrastructure in my district. I was at the forefront of passing some of the most progressive, pro-union policies in Arizona’s history, including a Worker Heat Safety ordinance that protects outdoor workers from extreme heat. And when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, I passed a resolution to direct the Police Department to make harsh state abortion laws its lowest priority for enforcement.


My policy decisions will always be guided by the needs of working families in my district. While traditional modeling shows a strong economy, it’s an economy that isn’t working for everyone. I will work to support quality jobs and wages that keep up with rising living costs, increased investment in public education, reduced student debt, a higher federal minimum wage, and public transit infrastructure that will get our communities to the new high-wage jobs created by the Biden administration.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Arizona District 3 in 2024.

Image of Raquel Terán

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Terán obtained a bachelor's degree from Arizona State University. Terán's professional experience includes working as a community organizer, including with Reform Immigration FOR America, Promise Arizona, and Mi Familia Vota. Terán was elected chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Arizona in 2021.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Terán said she was running because "there is no challenge too big we can't solve by organizing and working together." Terán said she was an experienced community organizer whose experience included working to recall state Sen. Russell Pearce (R), to defeat the re-election campaigns of Joe Arpaio (R) in 2016 and Donald Trump (R) in 2020, and to elect Democrats to statewide offices in 2022.


Terán said she would inspire voters and bring them to the polls to vote for her as well as Democrats on the statewide ballot: "You need to make sure that voters are inspired, that they’re motivated, and that they’re not voting ‘anti’ something, but they’re voting for an opportunity for a better reality...Joe Biden won by 10,000 votes. Governor Hobbs won by 15,000. Let’s think positive and increase our votes. Those narrow margins can increase if our district, if a district like Congressional District Three, overperforms."


Terán said Arizonans were facing many challenges: "Our housing prices are out of control. Our reproductive freedoms, including legal and safe abortion, are under attack. Our democracy is in jeopardy. The super wealthy continue to rig the system against our working families, and we desperately need comprehensive immigration reform."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Arizona District 3 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

I’m the proud daughter of immigrants and I’m running for office because of their experiences. I’ve dedicated my life’s work to public service because this country welcomed them with open arms and opportunity when they desperately needed it. They may have found their American dream, but as their daughter, I know that for far too many people, that dream is now out of reach.

As Councilwoman, I’ve championed housing affordability, climate action, reproductive freedom, workers' rights, and education, with proven results. I led the charge to pass the city's first Climate Action Plan and Transportation Electrification Action Plan, and helped secure hundreds of millions for new parks, roadways, fire stations and infrastructure in my district. I was at the forefront of passing some of the most progressive, pro-union policies in Arizona’s history, including a Worker Heat Safety ordinance that protects outdoor workers from extreme heat. And when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, I passed a resolution to direct the Police Department to make harsh state abortion laws its lowest priority for enforcement.

My policy decisions will always be guided by the needs of working families in my district. While traditional modeling shows a strong economy, it’s an economy that isn’t working for everyone. I will work to support quality jobs and wages that keep up with rising living costs, increased investment in public education, reduced student debt, a higher federal minimum wage, and public transit infrastructure that will get our communities to the new high-wage jobs created by the Biden administration.
An economy for all - Many Arizonans feel left behind in today’s economy with their wages not keeping up with the cost of living. We must prioritize housing affordability, reducing homelessness, strengthening worker power, and keeping taxes low for working families.

Ambitious climate action - The climate crisis is the defining issue of our time. As a climate policy expert, I believe we must accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy and create new jobs for a greener economy.

Restoring reproductive rights - Women’s rights have been under attack. I plan to fight for all women in AZ to have the right to make their own decisions about their own bodies and to access the healthcare services that are right for them.
When I was 16, I was lucky to have now-Arizona State Senator Christine Marsh as my AP English teacher. It was her commitment to discussions focused on civic engagement in the classroom that led me to join the Arizona Democratic Party and the Obama campaign as a junior in high school. As the youngest woman and first Iranian-American to serve on the Phoenix City Council, I’m now running to be the youngest woman and first Iranian-American Democrat in Congress and I owe much of that to the road that President Barack Obama paved for my generation.
The climate crisis is the defining issue of our time, which is why I have dedicated my career toward advancing solutions to address it. I served as an advisor on the climate teams of two UN Secretaries-General, and as a Councilwoman, I helped pass the city’s first-ever Climate Action Plan.

If we want to reduce the worst impacts of climate change and save lives, we need to reach 100% net zero by 2050 and establish programs that mitigate extreme heat. We need to go beyond the landmark legislation passed in DC recently.

That means going all-in for a 100% clean energy grid, weatherizing homes and buildings to make them more efficient, and building a high-speed train and transit system both across the country and locally in our cities. We need to make it easier to get around without a car or a plane and we need federal investment to do that.
Yes, sometimes compromise is necessary and my experience at the Phoenix City Council has trained me for a divided Congress. I’ve learned and gained the ability to work with colleagues that I may not agree with 95% of the time. For example, I led a lot of the work on clean transportation and decarbonization of our fleet and I was able to communicate and make the case to my Republican colleagues that beyond the benefits we’re going to see our air quality and emissions, there are cost savings when it comes to electric vehicles and moving away from fossil fuels. I believe there are many areas where we can find compromise in Congress and work across the aisle. And that is exactly the type of leader that I’m going to be: a strong progressive who is effective and can get things done at the Congressional level, which is a rarity these days.
Senator Mark Kelly

Planned Parenthood Action Fund Reproductive Freedom for All EMILYs List GIFFORDS National Women’s Political Caucus Defend the Vote Arizona AFL-CIO National Organization for Women Political Action Committee International Association of Firefighters Southwest Carpenters Union Local 1912 Arizona Federation of Teachers (AFT #8002) Laborers International Union of North America Arizona Pipe Trades Association of Professional Flight Attendants Ironworkers Local 75 Foreign Policy for America American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council Teamsters Local 104 Boilermakers Local 627 Communications Workers of America Climate Hawks Vote

IBEW Local Union 640
Without significant campaign finance reform, we'll continue seeing special interests and corporations wield more power than individuals in our elections and in Washington. Dark money influenced my first election in Phoenix in the form of unknown, deceptive, negative mailers to voters. By running a people-powered campaign, we made sure our voices were amplified over special interests.



Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.


Democratic Party Yassamin Ansari

View more ads here:


Democratic Party Raquel Terán

View more ads here:


Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

May 22 debate

On May 22, 2024, Ansari, Terán, and Wooten participated in a debate hosted by KTAR.[30]

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

April 16 debate

On Apr. 16, 2024, Ansari, Terán, and Wooten participated in a debate hosted by Arizona PBS.[31]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorser Democratic Party Yassamin Ansari Democratic Party Raquel Terán
Government officials
U.S. Sen Mark Kelly (D)  source  
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders  source  
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D)  source  
U.S. Rep. Pete Aguilar (D)  source  
U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D)  source  
U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D)  source  
State Sen. Lela Alston (D)  source  
State Sen. Flavio Bravo (D)  source  
State Sen. Eva Burch (D)  source  
State Sen. Eva Diaz (D)  source  
State Sen. Denise Epstein (D)  source  
State Sen. Rosanna Gabaldón (D)  source  
State Sen. Anna Hernandez  source  
State Sen. Catherine H. Miranda (D)  source  
State Sen. Priya Sundareshan (D)  source  
State Rep. Cesar Aguilar (D)  source  
State Rep. Lorena Austin (D)  source  
State Rep. Andres Cano (D)  source  
State Rep. Patricia Contreras (D)  source  
State Rep. Quantá Crews (D)  source  
State Rep. Oscar De Los Santos (D)  source  
State Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D)  source  
State Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)  source  
State Rep. Juan Mendez (D)  source  
State Rep. Analise Ortiz (D)  source  
State Rep. Athena Salman (D)  source  
State Rep. Mariana Sandoval (D)  source  
State Rep. Judy Schwiebert (D)  source  
State Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton (D)  source  
State Rep. Anastasia Travers (D)  source  
Mayor, Tucson Regina Romero (D)  source  
Member, Central Arizona Water Conservation District Maricopa County Ylenia Aguilar  source  
Supervisor, Maricopa County Steve Gallardo (D)  source  
Member, Maricopa County Constables Denice Garcia (D)  source  
Supervisor, Pima County Adelita Grijalva (D)  source  
Member, Maricopa County Constables Darlene Martinez (D)  source  
Member, Phoenix City Council Kevin Robinson  source  
Supervisor, Pima County Rex Scott (D)  source  
Secretary of State, NV Cisco Aguilar (D)  source  
Individuals
Frmr. U.S. Rep. Ron Barber  source  
UFW co-founder Dolores Huerta  source  
Frmr. U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick  source  
Frmr. state Rep. Lorenzo Sierra  source  
Organizations
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees  source 1 source 2
Arizona AFL-CIO  source 1 source 2
Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council  source  
Arizona Education Association  source  
Arizona Federation of Teachers  source  
Arizona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce  source  
Association of Flight Attendants  source  
Association of Professional Flight Attendants  source  
Boilermakers Local 627  source 1 source 2
Carpenters Local Union 1912  source  
Chicanos por la Causa Action Fund  source  
Climate Hawks Vote  source  
Communications Workers of America  source  
Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council  source  
Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC  source  
Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC  source  
Defend the Vote PAC  source  
End Citizens United  source  
Foreign Policy for America  source  
IAFF International Association of Fire Fighters  source  
Indivisible Project  source  
International Union of Painters and Allied Trades  source  
Ironworkers Local 75  source  
Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) PAC  source  
Latino Victory Fund  source  
League of Conservation Voters  source  
Let America Vote PAC  source  
Living United for Change Arizona  source  
Moms Fed Up  source  
National Organization for Women PAC  source  
People's Action  source  
Planned Parenthood Action Fund  source  
PODER PAC  source  
Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans  source  
Reproductive Freedom For All  source  
Sunrise Movement  source  
Teamsters Local 104  source 1 source 2
The International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers' Local 359  source  
UA Local 469  source  
UnidosUS  source  
United Farm Workers  source  
United Food and Commercial Workers Local 99  source  
UNITE HERE Local 11  source  
Vote Mama PAC  source  
Voter Protection Project  source  
Working Families Party  source  

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[32] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[33] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


Arizona's 3rd Congressional District: 2024 Democratic primary polls
Poll Date Democratic Party Ansari Democratic Party Terán Democratic Party Wooten Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[34] Sponsor[35]
Lake Research Partners Jul. 10–14, 2024 41% 30% 4% 21% ±4.9% 400 LV Yassamin Ansari
Lake Research Partners Oct. 26–Nov. 5, 2023 24% 23% -- 42% ±4.9% 400 LV Yassamin Ansari


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[36]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[37][38][39]

Race ratings: Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2024October 29, 2024October 22, 2024October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Decision Desk HQ and The HillSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Yassamin Ansari Democratic Party $2,876,682 $2,866,272 $10,411 As of December 31, 2024
Raquel Terán Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Duane Wooten Democratic Party $57,221 $53,638 $3,583 As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[40][41]

If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[42]

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election

Spending news

  • Protect Progress reported spending $1.3 million on advertisements supporting Ansari on July 15, 2024.[45]
  • Victory PAC spent $503,720 on canvassing efforts supporting Terán on March 18, 2024.[46]

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.


Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

2023_01_03_az_congressional_district_03.jpg
See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Arizona.

Arizona U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year Districts/
offices
Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
2024 9 9 2 38 18 2 6 44.4% 3 42.9%
2022 9 9 1 40 18 2 7 50.0% 3 37.5%
2020 9 9 0 34 18 6 4 55.6% 3 33.3%
2018 9 9 2 38 18 5 5 55.6% 2 28.6%
2016 9 9 2 31 18 4 7 61.1% 3 42.9%
2014 9 9 1 25 18 1 4 27.8% 1 12.5%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Arizona in 2024. Information below was calculated on May 26, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Thirty-eight candidates ran for Arizona’s nine U.S. House districts, including 16 Democrats and 22 Republicans. That’s 4.22 candidates per district. There were 4.33 candidates per district in 2022, 4.22 candidates per district in 2020, and 4.11 in 2018.

The 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts were open in 2024. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-03) ran for the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-08) ran for the ​​Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Nine candidates—six Democrats and three Republicans—ran for the 1st Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in Arizona in 2024.

Eight primaries—two Democratic and six Republican—were contested in 2024. That's the fewest since 2014, when five primaries were contested.

Three incumbents—all Republicans—were in contested primaries in 2024.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all nine districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+24. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Arizona's 3rd the 40th most Democratic district nationally.[47]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Arizona's 3rd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
74.5% 23.9%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[48] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline Democratic Party Republican Baseline Republican Party Difference
73.9 25.0 R+48.9

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Arizona, 2020

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 9 Democratic wins
  • 19 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R D R R R R R D
See also: Party control of Arizona state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 2 2 4
Republican 0 6 6
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 1 1
Total 2 9 11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Arizona, May 2024
Office Officeholder
Governor Democratic Party Katie Hobbs
Secretary of State Democratic Party Adrian Fontes
Attorney General Democratic Party Kris Mayes

State legislature

Arizona State Senate

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 14
     Republican Party 16
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 28
     Republican Party 31
     Other 0
     Vacancies 1
Total 60

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Arizona in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Arizona U.S. House Democratic 1,458[49] N/A 4/1/2024 Source
Arizona U.S. House Republican 1,572[49] N/A 4/1/2024 Source
Arizona U.S. House Libertarian 802[49] N/A 4/1/2024 Source
Arizona U.S. House Unaffiliated 4,701[49] N/A 4/1/2024 Source

District election history

2022

See also: Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Ruben Gallego defeated Jeffrey Zink in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ruben Gallego
Ruben Gallego (D)
 
77.0
 
108,599
Image of Jeffrey Zink
Jeffrey Zink (R) Candidate Connection
 
23.0
 
32,475

Total votes: 141,074
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Ruben Gallego advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ruben Gallego
Ruben Gallego
 
100.0
 
47,972

Total votes: 47,972
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Jeffrey Zink advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jeffrey Zink
Jeffrey Zink Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
13,894

Total votes: 13,894
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2020

See also: Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva defeated Daniel Wood in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Raúl Grijalva
Raúl Grijalva (D)
 
64.6
 
174,243
Image of Daniel Wood
Daniel Wood (R)
 
35.4
 
95,594

Total votes: 269,837
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Raúl Grijalva
Raúl Grijalva
 
100.0
 
63,290

Total votes: 63,290
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Daniel Wood defeated Richard Jolley in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Daniel Wood
Daniel Wood
 
99.8
 
29,272
Richard Jolley (Write-in)
 
0.2
 
44

Total votes: 29,316
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2018

See also: Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva defeated Nicolas Pierson in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Raúl Grijalva
Raúl Grijalva (D) Candidate Connection
 
63.9
 
114,650
Nicolas Pierson (R)
 
36.1
 
64,868

Total votes: 179,518
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Raúl Grijalva
Raúl Grijalva Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
45,186

Total votes: 45,186
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Nicolas Pierson defeated Sergio Arellano and Edna San Miguel in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Nicolas Pierson
 
49.9
 
13,090
Image of Sergio Arellano
Sergio Arellano
 
28.2
 
7,400
Image of Edna San Miguel
Edna San Miguel
 
21.9
 
5,756

Total votes: 26,246
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Earlier results



2024 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This was a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Arizona Secretary of State, "AZ03 Recount Result," August 20, 2024
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Tucson Sentinel, "Tight Phoenix-area congressional primary goes to automatic recount in Arizona," August 15, 2024
  3. 3.0 3.1 Vox, "How a vacant Arizona House seat explains Democratic politics in 2024," April 6, 2023
  4. Axios, "Ansari and Terán likely to dominate CD3 race following Pastor's departure," August 29, 2023
  5. Yassamin Ansari 2024 campaign website, "About Yassamin," accessed May 15, 2024
  6. Yassamin Ansari 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed May 15, 2024
  7. A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
  8. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
  9. Mericopa County Voter Registration and Elections, "Board of Supervisors Canvasses Maricopa County 2024 Primary Election Results," August 12, 2024
  10. Arizona Secretary of State, "Secretary of State Adrian Fontes to Certify Arizona's 2024 Primary Election Results," August 14, 2024
  11. Mericopa County Voter Registration and Elections, "Board of Supervisors Canvasses Maricopa County 2024 Primary Election Results," August 12, 2024
  12. Arizona State Legislature, "ARS 16-661, 16-249" accessed March 19, 2024
  13. This figure includes $1,630.99 Ansari contributed to her campaign and $110,000.00 Ansari loaned to her campaign.
  14. This figure includes $61,033.65 Ansari contributed to her campaign and $110,000.00 Ansari loaned to her campaign.
  15. This figure includes $4,400.00 Wooten contributed to his campaign.
  16. This figure includes $9,400.00 Wooten contributed to his campaign.
  17. Twitter, "The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru on July 17, 2024," accessed July 22, 2024
  18. Axios Phoenix, "Outside spending is ramping up in the Democratic primary for CD3," July 19, 2024
  19. This figure includes $14,040.19 Ansari contributed to her campaign.
  20. This figure includes $59,402.66 Ansari contributed to her campaign.
  21. This figure includes $5,000.00 Wooten contributed to his campaign.
  22. This figure includes $5,000.00 Wooten contributed to his campaign.
  23. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 1630 of 1630)," accessed July 30, 2024
  24. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 19 of 19)," accessed July 22, 2024
  25. KTAR, "Video: Arizona Congressional District 3 Democratic Primary Debate – May 22, 2024," May 22, 2024
  26. Arizona PBS, "AZ Votes Debate: Democrat Candidates for Arizona Congressional District 3," April 16, 2024
  27. This figure includes $13,326.73 Ansari contributed to her campaign.
  28. This figure includes $45,362.47 Ansari contributed to her campaign.
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 9 of 9)," accessed July 22, 2024
  30. KTAR, "Video: Arizona Congressional District 3 Democratic Primary Debate – May 22, 2024," May 22, 2024
  31. Arizona PBS, "AZ Votes Debate: Democrat Candidates for Arizona Congressional District 3," April 16, 2024
  32. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  33. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  34. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  35. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  36. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  37. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  38. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  39. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  40. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  41. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  42. Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 1630 of 1630)," accessed July 30, 2024
  44. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 19 of 19)," accessed July 22, 2024
  45. Axios Phoenix, "Outside spending is ramping up in the Democratic primary for CD3," July 19, 2024
  46. Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 9 of 9)," accessed July 22, 2024
  47. Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
  48. Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
  49. 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.3 This is the average signature requirement of all congressional districts.
  50. Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
  51. Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
  52. CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  53. ABC News, "General Election Results 2012-Arizona," November 7, 2012
  54. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  55. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  56. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  57. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  58. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  59. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
  60. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998," accessed March 28, 2013
  61. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 1996," accessed March 28, 2013
  62. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 1994," accessed March 28, 2013
  63. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1992," accessed March 28, 2013
  64. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 1990," accessed March 28, 2013


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)