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California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

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California's 10th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Jeff Denham (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): EVEN
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
California's 10th Congressional District
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California elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


In California's 10th Congressional District, venture capitalist Josh Harder (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (R) in the general election on November 6, 2018.[1]

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Denham, first elected in 2010, was one of seven California Republicans who represented a district won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.[2] This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, while Denham won his 2016 election by 3.4 percentage points. Prior to Denham's election, the district was represented by Democrat Ellen Tauscher for fourteen years.

Grey.png For more information about the top-two primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 10

Josh Harder defeated incumbent Jeff Denham in the general election for U.S. House California District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
52.3
 
115,945
Image of Jeff Denham
Jeff Denham (R)
 
47.7
 
105,955

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 221,900
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 10

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 10 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jeff Denham
Jeff Denham (R)
 
37.5
 
45,719
✔
Image of Josh Harder
Josh Harder (D)
 
17.0
 
20,742
Image of Ted Howze
Ted Howze (R)
 
14.6
 
17,723
Image of Michael Eggman
Michael Eggman (D)
 
10.2
 
12,446
Image of Virginia Madueno
Virginia Madueno (D)
 
9.2
 
11,178
Image of Sue Zwahlen
Sue Zwahlen (D)
 
8.2
 
9,945
Image of Mike Barkley
Mike Barkley (D)
 
2.4
 
2,904
Image of Dotty Nygard
Dotty Nygard (D)
 
0.9
 
1,100

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 121,757
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Jeff Denham, U.S. Representative
Jeff Denham.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Representative (Assumed office: 2011), California State Senate (2002-2010)

Biography: Denham earned his A.A. from Victor Valley Junior College and his B.A. from California Polytechnic State University. Before beginning his political career, he was a member of the U.S. Air Force Reserve (1988- 2000) and the U.S. Air Force (1984-1988). Denham was first elected to the U.S. House in 2010.[3]

Key messages
  • Denham's campaign website highlighted what he considers to be his fiscal accomplishments in Congress. He stated that he helped pass the Federal Asset Sale and Transfer act to "improve the management of federal property, shrink the federal government’s footprint, and save taxpayers billions of dollars."[4]
  • Denham also said he improved the "state's long-term climate for agriculture and business and working to expand water storage."[4]
  • Denham's campaign released an ad featuring a California farmer who said Denham worked to protect water rights, increase water storage, and fight against unnecessary regulations.[5]



Josh Harder, venture capitalist
Josh Harder.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Harder's professional experience includes working at Bessemer Venture Partners and the Boston Consulting Group. He has also worked with the Gates Foundation and other nonprofit organizations. Harder received his M.B.A. and M.P.P. from Harvard University and his B.A. from Stanford University.

Key messages
  • Harder stated that if elected, he would "work with Republicans, Democrats, and Independents to help our local farms and businesses prosper by investing in education and infrastructure and helping to create more good paying jobs."[6]
  • Harder listed Medicare for All, immigration, and job creation among campaign priorities on his website.[7]
  • Harder's campaigned released an ad criticizing Denham for a vote that he said took health insurance away from 100,000 people in the district and eliminated pre-existing condition protections. Harder said if elected, he would make sure everyone has healthcare they can afford.[8]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Jeff Denham Josh HarderUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 21-25, 2018		The New York Times 45%47%8%+/-4.9501
Institute of Governmental Studies
September 16-23, 2018		None 45%50%5%+/-5.0726
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org



Campaign finance

The chart below details the campaign finance statements reported to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jeff Denham Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Josh Harder Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Josh Harder

Support

"Political Courage" - Harder campaign ad, released October 24, 2018

Oppose

"Valley" - Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ad, released October 26, 2018
"Major Disruptions" - Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ad, released October 12, 2018
"In Debt" - Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ad, released October 5, 2018
"Shady Josh Harder" - Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ad, released September 28, 2018
"Rates" - Congressional Leadership Fund PAC ad, released September 14, 2018


Republican Party Jeff Denham

Oppose

"Looking" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 23, 2018
"Promesa" - DCCC ad, released October 9, 2018
"This Time" - Harder campaign ad, released October 9, 2018
"A MUST" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 9, 2018
"Fracaso" - DCCC ad, released September 24, 2018


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[9][10][11]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The American Action Network announced a $1 million ad campaign targeting California's 10th District and 25 other congressional districts on March 26, 2018. The group's 10th District ad asked voters to thank incumbent Jeff Denham (R) for supporting the tax bill passed by Congress in December 2017.[12]
    • The Los Angeles Times reported on January 3, 2018, that the American Action Network had made a six-figure TV and digital ad buy on behalf of Denham and three other Republican members of the California congressional delegation.[13] The group's ads thank the members for their support for the tax bill that was passed by Congress in December 2017. Click here to view the ad featuring Denham.
  • The American Bankers Association had spent $75,000 supporting Denham as of October 13, 2018.[14]
  • Onward Together, a political action committee formed by Hillary Clinton, donated $5,000 to Harder in June 2018.[17]
  • PAC for a Change, a political action committee led by former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), reported spending $500 on media production and $1,500 on a media buy for an ad opposing Denham on December 20, 2017.[18]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made California's 10th Congressional District the 198th most Democratic nationally.[19]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[20]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement Jeff Denham Josh Harder
Individuals
Barack Obama, former president[21] ✔

Campaign themes

The campaign themes below were obtained from the candidates' 2018 campaign websites.

Jeff Denham

Jeff is a leading voice for fiscal responsibility and debt reduction. In Congress, Jeff helped pass the Federal Asset Sale and Transfer act (FAST) to improve the management of federal property, shrink the federal government’s footprint, and save taxpayers billions of dollars.

Jeff understands that the federal government’s tax and regulatory policies hamper economic growth and are especially harmful to small businesses and farmers, who provide most of the jobs in the Central Valley. He is working to reduce taxes and regulations, so our local economy can grow.

As our local representative in Congress, Jeff will continue to focus on representing the long-term interests of the Valley’s agricultural community, finding a solution to the struggle over water storage and conveyance, improving transportation infrastructure and fighting for the rights, protections and benefits America’s brave and heroic veterans deserve.[4]

Josh Harder

Fight for Medicare for All

By voting for Trumpcare, Mr. Denham has once again put his party ahead of the people he’s supposed to represent. In this campaign, I will work to make sure every resident of California’s 10th district knows that their congressman voted to take away health coverage from 23 million Americans and eliminate protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Nonpartisan estimates calculate that 100,000 individuals in the CA-10 would have lost healthcare coverage as a result of Jeff Denham’s vote. He even voted in favor of allowing insurance companies to make pregnancy a pre-existing condition for which coverage may be denied. I will work to improve our healthcare system, not devastate it:

  • Double down on the part of our healthcare system that works best by expanding Medicare to encompass all Americans. For private insurers, nearly 1 in 6 dollars goes to administrative costs. For Medicare, it’s 1 in 50. Furthermore, polls show Medicare beneficiaries are more satisfied with their insurance than those with private plans.
  • Provide immediate relief by making common-sense fixes to strengthen the Affordable Care Act. Insurance premiums on the ACA marketplace in Stanislaus County rose 24% in 2018. We can provide short-term relief by increasing competition on the marketplaces by letting people buy into Medicare, curtailing prescription drug prices, and bringing more people into the marketplace.
  • Reduce healthcare costs to ensure the long-term sustainability of our system. America spends far more on healthcare than any other country, but we’re less healthy. The big drug companies jack up prices on life-saving medicines that can be bought for a fraction of the cost in Canada. And for too many working people, premiums, co-pays, and deductibles are so expensive that they can’t even afford to use the insurance they have. It’s time to attack high costs by targeting monopolistic practices and price gouging; allowing imports of medicine from Canada; and doing more to pay providers for the quality of care, not just the volume.

Encourage fair and humane immigration reform

For years, Mr. Denham has paid lip service to immigration reform in the Valley while doing nothing in Washington to solve the problem. He'll cosponsor and support bills up until they have a real chance of being passed, and then back away to please his party. Now, by supporting the Trump Administration, he is making our immigration problems even worse.

Denham supports Trump’s wasteful and ineffective wall. Furthermore, he’s remained silent while this administration has broken up families and deported law-abiding immigrants who own businesses and create jobs.

I will fight for our immigrant communities and push back against Trump's devastating policies:

  • Get relief for our Dreamers NOW. I see DREAMers every day as a teacher at Modesto Junior College. These are the bright stars of our community who just want to work hard to create a better life for themselves and their families. Jeff Denham has recklessly endangered these individuals by refusing to vote for a clean DREAM ACT to come to the floor. I will fight every day to protect my students and young immigrants nationwide.
  • Fight for a Pathway to Citizenship. America is a nation of immigrants and we rely on immigrant labor to keep our economic engine humming. Nowhere is that more obvious than in the Central Valley, where immigrants are the bedrock of our community. We need to welcome these hardworking individuals out of the shadows and provide them a simple pathway to citizenship.
  • Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform. In 2013 we had a bill passed by the Senate and approved by Obama that was waiting for the House, yet Denham backed his political party and kept the bill from reaching the floor. It's time to elect a representative that will work to pass such a bill: one that not only reforms our immigration process to make it simpler but also enhances our border patrol to keep our country safe.

Create more good jobs for the Valley

I’m running for Congress because I’m tired of seeing the Valley’s economy fall behind. Our unemployment rate is double the California average. After 17 years in politics, Jeff Denham’s only idea to improve our economy is to give even more tax breaks to the very wealthy. How does that benefit the farmers, small businesses, and families of the Central Valley?

In my business career, I have helped entrepreneurs and small companies develop their ideas and grow high-paying jobs. As your Representative, I will work to help small businesses and working-class Americans have the opportunities they need to be successful. In Congress, I will:

  • Build on our success in agriculture by working to make the Valley the agricultural technology capital of the nation.
  • Work to make college and technical training programs more affordable and accessible in the Valley, including by fighting for tuition-free community and technical college.
  • Invest in infrastructure, so that new companies have a strong foundation from which to build.
  • Fund apprenticeship programs that teach students the skills local companies need. We need to make sure our graduates have pathways to careers that have a future.

Build a sustainable water future for the Central Valley

Water has been the critical issue for agriculture in the Valley since my great-great-grandfather began farming in Manteca more than 170 years ago, and we will never solve our problems by shipping it to Southern California. For too long, politicians have haggled over our water crisis instead of working to solve it. I’ll work with Republicans and Democrats alike to find solutions to secure our water supply for future generations. That starts with three things:

  • Invest in water efficiency by providing tax incentives for Farmers to buy micro irrigation drips. They've been shown to dramatically decrease water usage while increasing production.
  • Build more water storage so that when it does rain we use it to recharge our aquifers and groundwater. Six years of drought were followed by one year of flooding. We have to be better prepared to take advantage of the rain when it comes.
  • Increase water production with a system of inland desalination plants. As the coastal cities grow, we can't sacrifice the Valley's economy. Instead, we have to find ways of increasing the water supply directly at the source.

End Citizens United and institute electoral reform

Corporate greed and Super PACs are corrupting our political system and nowhere is that more obvious than in our electoral process. Jeff Denham has been bought and sold by corporations and the Republican party, taking more than 70% of his contributions from special interests. That is why I have taken a pledge to refuse Corporate PAC donations.

  • Support an amendment that says corporations are NOT people. Corporations aren't born, they can't vote, and they shouldn’t be able to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence our elections. We need to take their power away and to do that we need to amend the constitution.
  • Advocate for an individuals right to vote and reinstitute the Voting Rights Amendment that was recently rolled back by the Supreme Court.
  • Fight against gerrymandering nationwide. Representatives are chosen by the people, not the other way around. I will advocate for fair practices in drawing districts that keep like communities together instead of building districts which protect those in power.

Defend women's rights and access to healthcare

I will be a fierce advocate for women’s rights, including supporting their economic security and reproductive rights. I will defend Planned Parenthood against attacks to stop reimbursement for critical medical care like cancer screenings and STD testing.

  • Advocate for a woman's right to choose as well as access to affordable and quality reproductive services.
  • Support efforts to institute paid family leave. America is the only advanced economy in the world without guaranteed family leave, which often affects our poorest workers the most. I also support expanding early childhood education, which helps working parents afford the high costs of childcare.
  • Strengthen protections in the workplace setting up systems that punish sexual predators, empower victims, and promote equal pay.

Create quality public schools for all Valley kids

I was educated in the public schools of Turlock and Modesto, and I firmly believe in the power of public education to create opportunity, because that is what it did for me. I am committed to ensuring that every child in the Central Valley has access to a world-class education that will prepare them for any future.

Now, the same public schools that gave me a head start are threatened by the Trump Administration. I will:

  • Fight against the Trump and DeVos scheme to privatize our education
  • Work to modernize our schools not only with new technology but also investments in STEAM and computer science.
  • Fight to increase teacher pay
  • Ensure access to affordable, equitable, high-quality universal pre-kindergarten education.
  • Fight to make college more affordable and accessible. Too many students are crippled with high debt loads right as they start their careers. I will fight to make community college and vocational training programs tuition-free and invest in our public universities so more students have access.

Protect the Environment

The Central Valley has some of the most productive soil and land in the world. I believe we must be good stewards of our water, air, and land resources to make sure their use is conserved for the next generation.

Like many children in the Central Valley, I grew up with childhood asthma because of our high air pollution. We can and must improve our adherence to clean air and water standards and invest in our children’s health.

I strongly believe in the scientific consensus that climate change is real and man-made. I will fight back against the Trump Administration’s dangerous attempts to undermine the Environmental Protection Agency and undo international agreements on climate change. Instead, we must make sure there are adequate incentives to invest in clean energy sources and move away from polluting fossil fuels.

Reduce gun violence

Our country is plagued by school shootings, gun-related suicide, and gang-related shootings. Here in California, we stepped up to reduce gun violence and have since seen the effectiveness of 10-day waiting periods, assault weapons restrictions, and background checks. Instead of advocating to take these successes nationwide, Denham has looked to undermine California state and local laws, endanger our law enforcement, and make it easier for dangerous individuals to walk around carrying guns. It's clear that he has been bought by the NRA and the gun industry. I will:

  • Protect responsible gun owners and their right to protect their family. We must ensure the right for responsible gun owners to be able to hunt and protect their home is respected, along with the 2nd amendment.
  • Take the successes we've seen in California nationwide. In California, we've seen a huge reduction in gun deaths thanks to our common sense reforms. That's why I don't want to change anything for gun owners here in the Central Valley, but take our reforms and institute them nationwide. Not only will this help protect the people living across the country, but it will also reduce the ability for criminals, domestic abusers, and terrorists here in the Central Valley to get their hands on guns.[22]


Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Republican Party Jeff Denham Facebook

Democratic Party Josh Harder Facebook

Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[23] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[24] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[25] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[26] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[27] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[28][29]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.


District history

2016

See also: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Denham and Eggman defeated Robert Hodges (R) and Michael Barkley (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[30][31]

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 51.7% 124,671
     Democratic Michael Eggman 48.3% 116,470
Total Votes 241,141
Source: California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 10 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 47.7% 61,290
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Eggman 27.6% 35,413
     Democratic Michael Barkley 14.5% 18,576
     Republican Robert Hodges 10.2% 13,130
Total Votes 128,409
Source: California Secretary of State

2014

See also: California's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Denham Incumbent 56.1% 70,582
     Democratic Michael Eggman 43.9% 55,123
Total Votes 125,705
Source: California Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.

2018 elections

See also: California elections, 2018

California held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for California
 CaliforniaU.S.
Total population:38,993,940316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):155,7793,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:61.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.9%12.6%
Asian:13.7%5.1%
Native American:0.7%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:31.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,818$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[32][33]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 61.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 31.6% 30.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.1% 23.1%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.1% Republican Party John McCain 37% 24.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.4% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.4% 10%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 53.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 41.7% 11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Kamala Harris 61.6% Democratic Party Loretta Sanchez 38.4% 23.2%
2012 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 62.5% Republican Party Elizabeth Emken 37.5% 25%
2010 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 52.2% Republican Party Carly Fiorina 42.2% 10%
2006 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 59.5% Republican Party Richard Mountjoy 35.1% 24.4%
2004 Democratic Party Barbara Boxer 57.8% Republican Party Bill Jones 37.8% 20%
2000 Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein 55.9% Republican Party Tom Campbell 36.6% 19.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.

Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 60% Republican Party Neel Kashkari 40% 20%
2010 Democratic Party Jerry Brown 53.8% Republican Party Meg Whitman 40.9% 12.9%
2006 Republican Party Arnold Schwarzenegger 55.9% Democratic Party Phil Angelides 39.0% 16.9%
2002 Democratic Party Gray Davis 47.3% Republican Party Bill Simon 42.4% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016
Year Democrats Democrats (%) Republicans Republicans (%) Balance of power
2016 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2014 Democratic Party 39 73.5% Republican Party 14 26.4% D+25
2012 Democratic Party 38 71.7% Republican Party 15 28.3% D+23
2010 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2008 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2006 Democratic Party 34 64.1% Republican Party 19 35.8% D+15
2004 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2002 Democratic Party 33 62.3% Republican Party 20 37.7% D+13
2000 Democratic Party 32 61.5% Republican Party 20 38.5% D+12

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

California Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty years with Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D S R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Associated Press, "Democrat Harder ousts California GOP US Rep. Denham," November 13, 2018
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Check out our maps and analysis comparing 2016's presidential and congressional results by district," January 31, 2017
  3. ↑ Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "Jeff Denham"
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Jeff Denham 2018 campaign website, "About Jeff Denham," accessed April 2, 2018
  5. ↑ Youtube, "Paul," released May 15, 2018
  6. ↑ Josh Harder 2018 campaign website, "About Josh," accessed September 13, 2018
  7. ↑ Josh Harder 2018 campaign website, "Priorities," accessed September 13, 2018
  8. ↑ Josh Harder 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed October 12, 2018
  9. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  10. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  11. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  12. ↑ American Action Network, "American Action Network continues promoting tax reform with $1 million campaign," March 26, 2018
  13. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Ads thank four California Republicans for their votes to pass tax plan," January 3, 2018
  14. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 13, 2018
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Bloomberg, "Two Democrats in House Races Top $3 Million in Third Quarter," October 2, 2018
  16. ↑ Modesto Bee, "Updated October 17, 2018
  17. ↑ CNN, "Hillary Clinton steps up her involvement in the midterms," July 30, 2018
  18. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Independent expenditures," accessed March 22, 2018
  19. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  20. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  21. ↑ Twitter, "Barack Obama on Twitter," August 1, 2018
  22. ↑ Josh Harder 2018 campaign website, "Priorities," accessed May 14, 2018
  23. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  24. ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  25. ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  26. ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  27. ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  28. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  29. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  30. ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  31. ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  32. ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
  33. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
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Election information
Super PACs/Organizations



California's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Alex Padilla (D)
Adam Schiff (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Ami Bera (D)
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Adam Gray (D)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Ro Khanna (D)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Jim Costa (D)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
Raul Ruiz (D)
District 26
District 27
District 28
Judy Chu (D)
District 29
Luz Rivas (D)
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
Ted Lieu (D)
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
Young Kim (R)
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
Dave Min (D)
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
Democratic Party (45)
Republican Party (9)

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