Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Massachusetts elections in 2014

July 10, 2014

2014 Massachusetts Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measures • State executive officials • School boards State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

Massachusetts Democrats hold one of eight supermajorities for their party nationwide, with Republicans only holding four seats in the Senate and 29 seats in the House. Democrats will have no general election opposition in 18 Senate districts (45.0%) and 85 House districts (53.1%), making a continued Democratic majority in at least the House a foregone conclusion. However, Democrats have vacated or will vacate 14 House seats, more than the three Republicans departing after this year.

The Democratic lead in the Senate is 32 seats (36-4). The Democratic lead in the House is 97 seats (126-29), with five previously Democratic seats remaining vacant through the election. Per Ballotpedia's analysis of margins of victory in the 2012 election, no Senate seats are competitive and only six House districts are considered at least mildly competitive. In all, 15 incumbents (7.5%) will face primary competition on September 9, 2014, and 39 percent of legislative races in Massachusetts will pair a Democrat and a Republican in the general election on November 4, 2014.

June 3 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for the Massachusetts State Senate and the Massachusetts House of Representatives.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections, Massachusetts State Senate elections and Massachusetts House of Representatives elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Democratic Party holds a majority in both state legislative chambers. Massachusetts' office of Governor is held by Deval Patrick (D), making the state one of 23 Democratic state government trifectas.

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is 32 seats, or 80 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 20 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Massachusetts State Senate
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	36	34
	Republican Party	4	6
Total		40	40

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the House is 97 seats, or 60.6 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. In 102 of the 160 districts up for election, two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Massachusetts House of Representatives
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	125	125
	Republican Party	29	35
	Vacancy	6	0
Total		160	160

Margin of victory

2015 → ← 2013
2014 State Legislative Elections
States
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan• Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot access for major and minor party candidates • Statewide elections, 2014 • State Senate elections • State House elections • State executive official elections • 2014 ballot measures

Senate

All 40 seats in the Senate were up for election in 2012, but none were competitive.

House

All 160 seats in the House are up for election in 2014. Seven of those seats held competitive elections in 2012, with a margin of victory of 0 to 5 percent, and three held mildly competitive elections, with a margin of victory of 5 to 10 percent. Four of these seats will not see general election opposition in 2014.

Competitive

• Second Franklin District: Incumbent Denise Andrews (D) faces the winner of the Republican primary between Karen Anderson and Susannah Whipps Lee in the general election. Andrews won by a margin of 1 percent in 2012.
• Fourth Middlesex District: Incumbent Danielle Gregoire (D) faces Matthew Elder (R) in the general election. Gregoire won by a margin of 1 percent in 2012.
• Eighth Plymouth District: Incumbent Angelo D'Emilia (R) faces Joseph Pacheco (D) in the general election. D'Emilia won by a margin of 5 percent in 2012.
• Second Worcester District: Incumbent Jonathan Zlotnik (D) faces Garret Shetrawski (R) in the general election. Zlotnik won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.
• Eighth Worcester District: Incumbent Kevin Kuros (R) faces Joseph Hall (D) in the general election. Kuros won by a margin of 3 percent in 2012.

Previously competitive, now unopposed

• Second Essex District: Incumbent Leonard Mirra (R) faces Edward Watson (R) in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election. Mirra won by a margin of 4 percent in 2012.
• Eighteenth Essex District: Incumbent James Lyons, Jr. is unopposed in the general election. Lyons won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive

• Sixth Plymouth District: District: Incumbent Josh Cutler (D) faces Joseph Sheehan (R) in the general election. Cutler won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.

Previously mildly competitive, now unopposed

• Tenth Norfolk District: Incumbent Jeffrey Roy (D) is unopposed in the general election. Roy won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.
• Seventh Plymouth District: Incumbent Geoff Diehl (R) is unopposed in the general election. Diehl won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Massachusetts' 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 21 open seats (10.5%) in the two chambers.
• A total of 15 incumbents (7.5%) face a primary challenger.
• Seventy-eight districts (39.0%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing Massachusetts Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	16.0%	20	8.3%	38	46.0%	39	23.4	40
2012	4.5%	44	11.1%	38	31.5	40	15.7	44
2014	10.5%	Pending	7.5%	Pending	39.0%	Pending	19.0	Pending

Senate

The following table details competitiveness in the Massachusetts State Senate.

Massachusetts Senate Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
10.0%	7.5%	50.0%	67.5

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 20 of the 40 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Eighteen Democrats and two Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Candidates from both major parties will face off in the general election in 20 of the 40 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of three incumbents, all Democrats, face primary competition on September 9. Four incumbents are not seeking re-election and another 33 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. Incumbents facing opposition include:

• First Essex District: Incumbent Kathleen O'Connor Ives is challenged by Jessica Finocchiaro in the Democratic primary. The winner will face Shaun Toohey (R) in the general election.
• Second Suffolk District: Incumbent Sonia Rosa Chang-Diaz is challenged by Roy Owens in the Democratic primary. The winner will face David Wyatt (R) in the general election.
• First Worcester District: Incumbent Harriette Chandler is challenged by William Feegbeh and Sean Maher in the Democratic primary. The winner will face Sean Maher (R) in the general election.

Incumbents retiring

Four incumbents are not running for re-election in 2014. Those incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Barry Finegold	Democratic	Senate, Second Essex and Middlesex
Gale Candaras	Democratic	Senate, First Hampden and Hampshire
Therese Murray	Democratic	Senate, Plymouth and Barnstable
Stephen Brewer	Democratic	Senate, Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex

House

The following table details competitiveness in the Massachusetts House of Representatives.

Massachusetts House Competitiveness
% Incs retiring/resigned	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
10.6%	6.9%	36.3%	17.9

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 102 of the 160 districts up for election in 2014, one major party candidate will run unopposed in the general election. A total of 85 Democrats and 17 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 58 of the 160 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of 12 incumbents, 11 Democrats and one Republican, face primary competition on September 9. Seventeen incumbents are not seeking re-election or have resigned in 2014 and another 131 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. Incumbents facing opposition include:

• Ninth Bristol District: Incumbent Christopher Markey is challenged by Alan Garcia in the Democratic primary. The winner will face Patrick Curran (R) in the general election.
• Second Essex District: Incumbent Leonard Mirra is challenged by Edward Watson in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• Eighth Hampden District: Incumbent Joseph Wagner is challenged by William Courchesne in the Democratic primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• Seventh Suffolk District: Incumbent Gloria Fox is challenged by Eric Esteves and Rufus Faulk in the Democratic primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• Fifteenth Worcester District: Incumbent Mary Keefe is challenged by Philip Palmieri and Ralph Perez in the Democratic primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.

Incumbents retiring

A total of twelve incumbents are not running for re-election in 2014. Those incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Cleon Turner	Democratic	House, First Barnstable
Michael Costello	Democratic	House, First Essex
John Keenan	Democratic	House, Seventh Essex
Sean Curran	Democratic	House, Ninth Hampden
Thomas Conroy	Democratic	House, Thirteenth Middlesex
Christopher Fallon	Democratic	House, Thirty-Third Middlesex
Vinny deMacedo	Republican	House, First Plymouth
Christine Canavan	Democratic	House, Tenth Plymouth
Anne Gobi	Democratic	House, Fifth Worcester
George Peterson, Jr.	Republican	House, Ninth Worcester
John Binienda, Sr.	Democratic	House, Seventeenth Worcester
Ryan Fattman	Republican	House, Eighteenth Worcester

In addition, five seats were vacated prior to the filing deadline and will not be filled by a special election.

Name	Party	Office Vacated
Steven Walsh	Democratic	House, Eleventh Essex
Cheryl Coakley-Rivera	Democratic	House, Tenth Hampden
Kevin Murphy	Democratic	House, Eighteenth Middlesex
Jason Lewis	Democratic	House, Thirty-first Middlesex
Carl Sciortino	Democratic	House, Thirty-fourth Middlesex

See also

• State legislative elections, 2014
• Massachusetts elections, 2014
• Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2014
• Massachusetts House of Representatives elections, 2014

External links

• Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, "2014 State Primary Candidates"

Footnotes

Ballotpedia

About

Overview • What people are saying • Support Ballotpedia • Contact • Contribute • Job opportunities

---

Executive: Leslie Graves, Founder and CEO • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer

Communications: Alison Graves, Director of Communications • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Frank Festa • Sarah Groat • Nathaniel Harwood • Dillon Redmond
External Relations: Geoff Pallay, Director of External Relations • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Ashley Fleming • Thomas Mardik • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski, Director of Operations • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Tech: Matt Latourelle, Director of Technology Operations • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Joseph Sanchez • Mary Susmitha

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen

---

Editorial Content

Josh Altic, Director of Content • Daniel Anderson, Associate Director of Elections & Data • Cory Eucalitto, Associate Director of Features • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor of Ballot Measures • Mandy McConnell, Managing Editor of News • Doug Kronaizl, Managing Editor of Local Expansion • Abbey Smith, Managing Editor of Elections • Janie Valentine, Managing Editor of Law • Joel Williams, Managing Editor of Events • Andrew Bahl • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Jon Dunn • Victoria Edwards • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Brianna Hosea • Molly Kehoe • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Nathan Maxwell • Jimmy McAllister • Brandon McCauley • Ellie Mikus • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Annelise Reinwald • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Emma Soukup • Alexis Thacker • Mina Vogel • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox