Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Utah elections in 2014
April 14, 2014
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Margin of victory Competitiveness |
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State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate |
By Ballotpedia's State legislative team
Although neither chamber is in consideration to potentially flip in the coming election, several races feature former legislators running to return to the legislature. Former Senator Ross Romero (D) is running for the seat of the retiring Patricia Jones (D). Casey Anderson (R), an incumbent who lost in the 2012 Republican convention to Evan Vickers (R), will get a rematch in this year’s convention. Although he lost to Janice Fisher (D) in 2012 after the two were drawn together, former Representative Fred Cox (R) will run for Fisher’s seat following her retirement. Former Representative Holly Richardson (R) is challenging incumbent Brian Greene (R), while Jerry Anderson (R) will face the challenge of two former legislators, Christine Watkins (R) and Bill Labrum (R).
March 20 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Utah State Senate and Utah House of Representatives. Elections in 14 Senate districts and all 75 House districts will consist of a primary election on June 24, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.
- See also: 2014's state legislative elections; Utah State Senate elections and Utah House of Representatives elections
Majority control
Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds the majority in both state legislative chambers. Utah's office of Governor is held by Gary R. Herbert (R), making the state one of 23 with a Republican state government trifecta.
The Utah Senate has a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republican of 19 seats, which amounts to 136 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. None of the districts up for election in 2014 were up for election in 2012.
| Utah State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 5 | 4 | |
| Republican Party | 23 | 23 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 2 | |
| Total | 29 | 29 | |
The Utah House has a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republican of 46 seats, which amounts to 61 percent of the chamber. In 2012, a total of eight districts were competitive or mildly competitive. There were four districts where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less in the 2012 elections. Another four districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.
| Utah House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 14 | 13 | |
| Republican Party | 61 | 62 | |
| Total | 75 | 75 | |
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Margin of victory
House
All 75 seats in the House were up for election in 2012. Five of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Four other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of 5 to 10 percent. There were ten districts where only one major party candidate appeared on the general election ballot.[1]
The districts with elections in 2014 which held competitive or mildly competitive elections in 2012 are:
Competitive
- District 30: Michael D. Lee is unopposed in the Democratic convention, while Fred Cox will face Carbon Lundgren in the Republican primary. Incumbent Janice Fisher (D) won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
- District 31: Incumbent Larry Wiley (D) will face off against the winner of the Republican convention between Fred Johnson and Sophia DiCaro. Wiley won the general election by a margin of victory of 1 percent in 2012.
- District 37: Incumbent Carol Moss (D) will face Ron Hilton (R) and Wallace McCormick (Independent American) in the general election. Moss won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
- District 69: Incumbent Jerry Anderson (R) will face Christine Watkins and Bill Labrum in the Republican convention. The winner of that contest will go on to face Brad King (D) in the general election. Anderson won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
Mildly competitive
- District 10: Incumbent Dixon M. Pitcher (D) will face Eric Irvine (R) in the general election. Pitcher won the general election by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
- District 33: Incumbent Craig Hall (R) will face Elizabeth Muniz (D) in the general election. Hall won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
- District 34: Incumbent Johnny Anderson (R) will face off against the winner of the Democratic convention between Karen Kwan and Dean Campbell. Anderson won the general election by a margin of victory of 7 percent in 2012.
- District 46: Incumbent Marie Poulson (D) will face N. William Clayton (R) and Lee Anne Walker (L) in the general election. Poulson won the general election by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
Competitiveness
Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:
- Is the incumbent running for re-election?
- If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
- Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?
In Utah's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:
- There are 12 open seats (13.5%) in the two chambers.
- A total of 22 incumbents (28.6%) face a primary challenger.
- Just 73 districts (82.0%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.
The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.
| Comparing Utah Competitiveness over the Years | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | % Incs retiring | % incs rank | % Incs facing primary | % Incs primary rank | % seats with 2 MPC | % seats with 2 MPC rank | Overall Index | Overall Index Rank |
| 2010 | 11.1% | 30 | 30.0% | 8 | 78.9% | 11 | 40 | 10 |
| 2012 | 17.6% | 27 | 39.7% | 6 | 81.3% | 10 | 46.2 | 8 |
| 2014 | 13.5% | Pending | 28.6% | Pending | 82.0% | Pending | 41.4 | Pending |
Senate
The following table details competitiveness in the Utah State Senate.
| Utah Senate Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 14.3% | 28.6% | 85.7% | 42.9 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 2 (14.3%) of the 14 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of one Republican and one Democrat are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 12 (85.7%) of the 14 districts up for election.[2]
Convention challenges
A total of 4 incumbents will face convention competition for their party's nomination. Two incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 8 incumbents will advance past the convention without opposition.[2] The state senators facing primary convention are:
- District 12: Incumbent Daniel W. Thatcher will face Vicki Griffith in the Republican convention.
- District 22: Incumbent Stuart Adams will face Chad Curvin in the Republican convention.
- District 26: Incumbent Kevin Van Tassell will face Susan Hacking Horrocks in the Republican convention.
- District 28: Incumbent Evan Vickers will face Casey Anderson in the Republican convention.
Retiring incumbents
There are two incumbent senators who are not running for re-election, while 12 (85.7%) are running for re-election.[2] The following table lists the incumbents, one Democrat and one Republican, who are not running for re-election.
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Patricia Jones |  Democratic |
Senate District 04 |
| Stuart C. Reid |  Republican |
Senate District 18 |
House
The following table details competitiveness in the Utah House of Representatives.
| Utah House Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 13.3% | 24.0% | 81.3% | 39.5 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 14 (18.7%) of the 75 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 13 Republicans and 1 Democrat are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 61 (81.3%) of the 75 districts up for election.[2]
Convention challenges
A total of 18 incumbents will face convention competition for their party's nomination. Ten incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 46 incumbents will advance past the convention without opposition.[2] The representatives facing convention competition are:
- District 8: Incumbent Gage Froerer will face Jess McClelland in the Republican convention.
- District 12: Incumbent Richard Greenwood will face Mike Schultz in the Republican convention.
- District 13: Incumbent Paul Ray will face Lorenzo Swank in the Republican convention.
- District 17: Incumbent Stewart Barlow will face Scott Balaich in the Republican convention.
- District 32: Incumbent LaVar Christensen will face Austin Linford in the Republican convention.
- District 38: Incumbent Eric Hutchings will face David Howick in the Republican convention.
- District 42: Incumbent Jim Bird will face Kim Coleman in the Republican convention.
- District 48: Incumbent Keven Stratton will face Timothy Spencer in the Republican convention.
- District 50: Incumbent Rich Cunningham will face Louis Welch in the Republican convention.
- District 51: Incumbent Greg Hughes will face Sione Tavake in the Republican convention.
- District 53: Incumbent Melvin Brown will face John B. Zimmerman and Blaine Hone in the Republican convention.
- District 54: Incumbent Kraig Powell will face Wylder Smith in the Republican convention.
- District 57: Incumbent Brian Greene will face John G. Stevens and Holly Richardson in the Republican convention.
- District 60: Incumbent Dana Layton will face Bradley Daw in the Republican convention.
- District 66: Incumbent Mike McKell will face Scott Woolston in the Republican convention.
- District 68: Incumbent Merrill Nelson will face Cindy Vincent in the Republican convention.
- District 69: Incumbent Jerry Anderson will face Christine Watkins and Bill Labrum in the Republican convention.
- District 72: Incumbent John Westwood will face Blake Cozzens in the Republican convention.
Retiring incumbents
There are ten incumbent representatives who are not running for re-election, while 64 (85.3%) are running for re-election.[2] The following table lists all incumbents, four Democrats and six Republicans, who are not running for re-election.
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Ronda Menlove | Republican |
House District 1 |
| Ryan Wilcox | Republican |
House District 7 |
| Roger Barrus | Republican |
House District 18 |
| Jim Nielson | Republican |
House District 19 |
| Jennifer Seelig | Democratic |
House District 23 |
| Janice Fisher | Democratic |
House District 30 |
| Lynn Hemingway | Democratic |
House District 40 |
| Tim Cosgrove | Democratic |
House District 44 |
| John Mathis | Republican |
House District 55 |
| Rebecca Lockhart | Republican |
House District 64 |
See also
- Utah elections, 2014
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Utah State Senate elections, 2014
- Utah House of Representatives elections, 2014
External links
Footnotes
