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Presidential election in New Mexico, 2016

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New Mexico
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General election in New Mexico
  Date: November 8, 2016
2016 winner: Hillary Clinton
Electoral votes: Five
2012 winner: Barack Obama (D)
Democratic Primary
  Date: June 7, 2016
Winner: Hillary Clinton
Republican Primary
  Date: June 7, 2016
Winner: Donald Trump
Down ballot races in New Mexico
  U.S. House
State executives
New Mexico State Senate
New Mexico House of Representatives
New Mexico judicial elections
New Mexico local judicial elections
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New Mexico held an election for the president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Democratic and Republican primaries took place in New Mexico on June 7, 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Hillary Clinton won New Mexico in the general election. In 2016, New Mexico had five electoral votes, which was 0.9 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.8 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
  • Between 1912—the first year New Mexico cast electoral votes in a general election for president—and 2016, New Mexico voted for the winning presidential candidate 88.89 percent of the time, one of the highest accuracy rates in the country. In that same time frame, New Mexico supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 55.56 to 44.44 percent. The state favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016, except 2004 when George W. Bush (R) narrowly won the state over John Kerry (D), 50 to 49 percent.
  • Democratic and Republican primaries took place in New Mexico on June 7, 2016. Hillary Clinton won the New Mexico Democratic primary with 51.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the New Mexico Republican primary with 70.7 percent of the vote.

    • General election candidates and results

    Candidates

    See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

    The candidate list below is based on an official list on the New Mexico secretary of state website. The candidate names below appear in the order in which they were listed on the official list—not necessarily the order in which they appeared on the ballot in November. Write-in candidates were not included in the list below.

    Presidential candidates on the ballot in New Mexico

    ☐ Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican)
    ☑ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic)
    ☐ Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks (Socialism and Liberation)
    ☐ Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
    ☐ Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley (Constitution)
    ☐ Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (Green)
    ☐ Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg (American Delta)
    ☐ Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson (Better for America)[1]

    Results

    U.S. presidential election, New Mexico, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 48.3% 385,234 5
         Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 40% 319,667 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 9.3% 74,541 0
         Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.2% 9,879 0
         Socialism and Liberation Gloria Estela La Riva/Dennis J. Banks 0.1% 1,184 0
         Constitution Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley 0.2% 1,514 0
         American Delta Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg 0.1% 475 0
         Better for America Evan McMullin/Nathan Johnson 0.7% 5,825 0
    Total Votes 798,319 5
    Election results via: New Mexico Secretary of State

    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, in 34 states.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government for the next four years.

    Historical election trends

    See also: Presidential election accuracy

    Below is an analysis of New Mexico's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.

    Presidential election voting record in New Mexico, 1912-2016

    Between 1912 and 2016:

    • New Mexico participated in 27 presidential elections. Its first was in 1912.
    • New Mexico voted for the winning presidential candidate 88.89 percent of the time.
    • New Mexico voted Democratic 55.56 percent of the time and Republican 44.44 percent of the time.

    Most accurate states

    See also: Presidential election accuracy data

    Below is the list of the most accurate states when it comes to voting for the winning presidential candidate.

    Most accurate states, 1900-2016
    State Percentage of accuracy
    Ohio 93.33% (28 out of 30 elections)
    New Mexico 88.89% (24 out of 27 elections)
    Nevada 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Missouri 86.67% (26 out of 30 elections)
    Illinois 83.33% (25 out of 30 elections)

    Presidential election voting record in New Mexico, 2000-2016

    *An asterisk indicates that that candidate also won the national electoral vote in that election.

    Election results

    2012

    U.S. presidential election, New Mexico, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent 53% 415,335 5
         Republican Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 42.8% 335,788 0
         Libertarian Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 3.5% 27,787 0
         Green Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala 0.3% 2,691 0
         Independent American Rocky Anderson/Luis Rodriguez 0.1% 1,174 0
         Constitution Virgil Goode/James Clymer 0.1% 982 0
    Total Votes 783,757 5
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    2008

    U.S. presidential election, New Mexico, 2008
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBarack Obama/Joe Biden 56.9% 472,422 5
         Republican John McCain/Sarah Palin 41.8% 346,832 0
         Independent Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez 0.6% 5,327 0
         Libertarian Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root 0.3% 2,428 0
         Constitution Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle 0.2% 1,597 0
         Green Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente 0.2% 1,552 0
    Total Votes 830,158 5
    Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

    Electoral votes

    See also: Electoral College

    The president of the United States is not elected by popular vote but rather by electors in the Electoral College. In fact, when Americans vote for president, they are actually voting for a slate of electors selected by members of Democratic and Republican state parties or nominated in some other fashion. Under this system, which is laid out in Article 2, Section 1, of the Constitution, each state is allocated one electoral vote for every member of their congressional delegation, meaning one for each member of the U.S. House and one for each of their two Senators.

    New Mexico electors

    In 2016, New Mexico had five electoral votes. New Mexico's share of electoral votes represented 0.9 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 1.8 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president.

    "Faithless electors"

    The U.S. Constitution does not dictate how presidential electors are to cast their votes, but, in general, electors are expected to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state or the candidates of the party that nominated them to serve as electors. Electors who choose not to vote for the winner of the popular vote or the candidates of the party that nominated them are known as "faithless electors." Faithless electors are rare. Between 1900 and 2012, there were only eight known instances of faithless electors.

    Several states have passed laws against faithless electors and require electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote in their state, for the candidate of the party that nominated them to serve as electors, or in accordance with any pledge they may have been required to make at the time of their nomination. In states with these types of laws, faithless electors can be fined or replaced, or their votes can be nullified.[4][5]

    New Mexico was one of 31 states in 2016—including the District of Columbia—with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors.

    Down ballot races

    See also: New Mexico elections, 2016

    Below is a list of down ballot races in New Mexico covered by Ballotpedia in 2016.

    Primary election

    Quick facts

    Democrats:
    • 2016 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • 2008 Democratic winner: Hillary Clinton
    • Type: Closed Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 34
    		 Republicans
    • 2016 Republican winner: Donald Trump
    • 2012 Republican winner: Mitt Romney
    • Type: Closed Primary
    • Delegate allocation: Proportional
    • Pledged delegates at stake: 24

    Democrats

    Hillary Clinton won the New Mexico Democratic primary, defeating Bernie Sanders 51 to 48 percent. Sanders won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque, while Clinton took Santa Fe County (home to Santa Fe) and Dona Ana County (home to Las Crucues). A total of 34 pledged delegates were at stake in addition to nine superdelegates. As of June 7, 2016, six New Mexico superdelegates had pledged their support Clinton, while the support of the other three was unknown. Clinton's victory in New Mexico came after The Associated Press declared on June 6 that she had secured enough pledged delegates and superdelegates to clinch the Democratic nomination.

    Republicans

    Donald Trump won the New Mexico Republican primary with roughly 70 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and John Kasich—both of whom suspended their campaigns in May 2016—came in second and third place, respectively. In the months before the New Mexico primary, Trump—who was declared the Republican Party's presumptive nominee in May 2016—had quarreled with Gov. Susana Martinez (R). In July 2015, Martinez said in response to some of Trump's statements about Mexican immigrants, "I think those are horrible things to say about anyone or any culture ... anyone of any ethnicity. I mean, that is uncalled for completely."[6] Then, in May 2016, Martinez declined to attend a rally for Trump in New Mexico. At that same rally, Trump accused Martinez of "not doing the job" as governor. He said, "Hey! Maybe I’ll run for governor of New Mexico. I’ll get this place going. She’s not doing the job. We’ve got to get her moving. Come on: Let’s go, governor." Trump later walked back these comments, saying, “I respect her. I have always liked her.” Martinez had previously been viewed as a potential VP pick for Trump.[7]

    June 7 primaries

    Five other states held presidential primary elections or caucuses for the Democratic and Republican parties on June 7, 2016: California, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

    2016 primary results

    Democrats

    New Mexico Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngHillary Clinton 51.5% 111,225 18
    Bernie Sanders 48.5% 104,656 16
    Totals 215,881 34
    Source: The New York Times and New Mexico Secretary of State

    Republicans

    New Mexico Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes Delegates
    Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump 70.7% 73,887 24
    Ted Cruz 13.3% 13,911 0
    John Kasich 7.6% 7,919 0
    Jeb Bush 3.4% 3,517 0
    Ben Carson 3.7% 3,825 0
    Carly Fiorina 1.4% 1,507 0
    Totals 104,566 24
    Source: The New York Times and New Mexico Secretary of State

    Primary candidates

    Democrats[8]

    Hillary Clinton


    Bernie Sanders

    Republicans[8]

    Jeb Bush
    Ben Carson
    Ted Cruz


    Carly Fiorina
    John Kasich


    Marco Rubio
    Donald Trump

    Polls

    Republican primary

    Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (New Mexico)
    Poll Ted Cruz Donald TrumpMarco RubioBen CarsonJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Albuquerque Journal
    February 16-18, 2016    		25%24%19%6%4%22%+/-4.9403
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Debates

    Delegate selection

    See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

    Democratic Party

    Democratic Party Logo.png

    New Mexico had 43 delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Of this total, 34 were pledged delegates. National party rules stipulated how Democratic delegates in all states were allocated. Pledged delegates were allocated to a candidate in proportion to the votes he or she received in a state's primary or caucus. A candidate was eligible to receive a share of the state's pledged delegates if he or she won at least 15 percent of the votes cast in the primary or caucus. There were three types of pledged Democratic delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates, and party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). Congressional district delegates were allocated proportionally based on the primary or caucus results in a given district. At-large and PLEO delegates were allocated proportionally based on statewide primary results.[9][10]

    Nine party leaders and elected officials served as unpledged delegates. These delegates were not required to adhere to the results of a state's primary or caucus.[9][11]

    New Mexico superdelegates

    See also: Superdelegates from New Mexico, 2016 and Superdelegates and the 2016 Democratic National Convention

    Republican Party

    Logo-GOP.png

    New Mexico had 24 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, nine were district-level delegates (three for each of the state's three congressional districts), and 12 served as at-large delegates. New Mexico's district and at-large delegates were allocated proportionally; a candidate had to win at least 15% of the statewide primary vote in order to be eligible to receive a portion of the state's district and at-large delegates.[12][13]

    In addition, three national party leaders (identified on the chart below as RNC delegates) served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.[12][13]

    Republican delegates

    See also: Republican delegates from New Mexico, 2016 and RNC delegate guidelines from New Mexico, 2016

    Presidential voting history

    New Mexico presidential election results (1900-2024)

    • 17 Democratic wins
    • 12 Republican wins
    Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
    Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R D D R R R R R R D D D R D D D D D

    State profile

    Demographic data for New Mexico
     New MexicoU.S.
    Total population:2,080,328316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):121,2983,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:73.2%73.6%
    Black/African American:2.1%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:9.1%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:3.3%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:47.4%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
    College graduation rate:26.3%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$44,963$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:24.7%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in New Mexico

    New Mexico voted for the Democratic candidate in six out of the seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, three are located in New Mexico, accounting for 1.46 percent of the total pivot counties.[14]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. New Mexico had three Retained Pivot Counties, 1.66 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More New Mexico coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ On October 6, 2016, Evan McMullin announced Mindy Finn as his official running mate. As of October 10, 2016, Ballotpedia was not aware of any changes to this state's official list of certified presidential candidates.
    2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
    3. ↑ This number refers to the number of times that the state voted for the winning presidential candidate between 2000 and 2016.
    4. ↑ Archives.gov, "About the Electors," accessed July 28, 2016
    5. ↑ Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: How it works in contemporary presidential elections," April 13, 2016
    6. ↑ Albuquerque Journal, "Gov. Martinez condemns comments made by Trump," July 2, 2015
    7. ↑ The Washington Post, "After criticizing New Mexico’s Gov. Martinez, Trump now says he wants her endorsement," June 3, 2016
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 New Mexico Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed March 21, 2016
    9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Democratic National Committee, "2016 Democratic National Convention Delegate/Alternate Allocation," updated February 19, 2016
    10. ↑ The Green Papers, "2016 Democratic Convention," accessed May 7, 2021
    11. ↑ Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection, "Unpledged Delegates -- By State," May 27, 2016
    12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Republican National Committee, "2016 Presidential Nominating Process," accessed October 6, 2015
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 CNN.com, "Republican National Convention roll call vote," accessed July 20, 2016
    14. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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    Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate


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