Ballotpedia:Statewide projections for the November 6, 2012 elections

This page hosts Ballotpedia's projections for the partisan outcome of State Executive, State Senate and State House elections. Federal and ballot measures were not included, in order to provide the clearest picture possible.

The first set of projections debuted on August 1, 2012. Ballotpedia will release updated projections on the first of each month, with the final report appearing on November 1, 2012, just days before the general election. The purpose of these projections is to indicate which races to watch, and which parties might have more to lose or gain from the election.

In addition to general projections, this page details our Trifecta analysis. A trifecta is defined as one party holding control of the governor's mansion, state Senate, and state House. This is viewed as an important point of analysis, because holding all three positions of state government can allow one party be the gatekeeper to all policy change in a specific state.

While Ballotpedia did not make projections about Congressional races, we aggregated various projections made by other organizations that covered the elections. Those can be viewed under the Congress tab.

Combined Projections

The tables below contain projections for both State Executive and State Legislative elections in 2012. The figures were derived by adding up the number of top-ballot state executive positions + the number of chambers for each party. Top-ballot refers to governors, lieutenant governors, attorneys general and secretaries of state. While there were 37 top-ballot state executive positions up for election and 86 state legislative chambers with 2012 elections, the Nebraska Legislature is officially nonpartisan, thus bringing a total of 122 projected outcomes.

Democrats Before election: 55 Predicted after election: 41 (18 Toss-ups)	Republicans Before election: 65 Predicted after election: 64 (18 Toss-ups)
*Note: The figures above are derived by adding up the total state executive seats + total chambers held by a party. **The figures are missing three state legislative chambers. There were two ties (Alaska Senate and Oregon House) and one nonpartisan chamber (Nebraska)

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	22	8	7	26	10	16	33
September 1, 2012	23	6	9	24	14	14	32
October 1, 2012	24	5	9	24	13	12	35
November 1, 2012	24	5	12	18	12	14	37
August changes: MO LtGov to Lean R; WV SoS to Likely D; OR SoS to Safe D; OR AttyGen to Lean D; Alaska Senate to lean R; Pennsylvania Senate to lean R; Washington Senate to lean D; Ohio House to likely R; New Hampshire House to lean R September changes: NC Gov to Likely R; Vt. LtGov to Safe R; OR SOS to toss-up; PA AG to lean D; Rhode Island Senate to safe D; Montana House to Safe R October changes:IN Gov to Safe R, MO Gov to Lean D; MO Lt. Gov to Likely R, MT Lt. Gov to Toss-up; Oregon SOS to Lean D; Oregon and VT AG to Safe D; MO AG to Likely D; WV AG to Lean D; IN and MT AG to Likely R; AR House to Lean R; PA House to Likely R; CT Senate to Lean D; Iowa Senate to Toss-up; AR Senate to Lean R; Maine Senate to Lean D

State Executives

2012 State Executive Races

Democrats Before election: 23 Projected after election: 16 (9 Toss-ups) Actual Results: 19 (5 too close to call)	Republicans Before election: 14 Projected after election: 12 (9 Toss-ups) Actual Results: 13 (5 too close to call)

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	5	4	3	14	2	5	4
September 1, 2012	6	3	4	13	3	4	4
October 1, 2012	6	3	4	13	2	4	5
November 1, 2012	7	3	6	9	0	4	8
August changes: MO LtGov to Lean R; WV SoS to Likely D; OR SoS to Safe D; OR AttyGen to Lean D September changes: NC Gov to Safe R; Vt. LtGov to Safe R; OR SOS to toss-up; PA AG to lean D October changes: IN Gov to Safe R, MO Gov to Lean D; MO Lt. Gov to Likely R, MT Lt. Gov to Toss-up; Oregon SOS to Lean D; Oregon and VT AG to Safe D; MO AG to Likely D; WV AG to Lean D; IN and MT AG to Likely R

For Ballotpedia's coverage of state executive down ballot races, see this page

Governor

Eleven states have scheduled gubernatorial elections in the 2012 electoral cycle: Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.

Heading into the November election, the Democrats held eight of the seats and the Republicans held three seats. Six incumbents sought re-election, three retired and two were term-limited. Of the six who ran, 4 were Democrats and 2 were Republicans.

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	2	1	1	3	1	1	2
September 1, 2012	2	1	1	3	1	1	2
October 1, 2012	2	1	1	3	0	1	3
November 1, 2012	2	0	2	3	0	0	4

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
Delaware Vermont		Missouri West Virginia	Washington Montana New Hampshire			Indiana North Carolina North Dakota Utah
August changes: None September changes: NC to Safe R October changes: Indiana to Safe R; Missouri to Lean D

Lt. Governor

Nine states have scheduled lieutenant gubernatorial elections in the 2012 electoral cycle. In four of those states, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on a single ticket: Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. In the other 5 states, lieutenant governors are elected separately from the governor: Delaware, Missouri, North Carolina, Vermont and Washington.

Heading into the November election, the Democrats held three seats and the Republicans held six. Incumbents sought re-election in six of the races, one incumbent was term-limited, one retired and one ran for a different office. Of the incumbent lieutenant governors who ran for re-election, two were Democrats and four were Republicans.

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	1	0	1	1	1	3	2
September 1, 2012	1	0	1	1	2	2	2
October 1, 2012	1	0	1	1	2	1	3
November 1, 2012	1	0	1	2	0	2	3

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
Delaware		Washington	Montana North Carolina		Indiana Missouri	North Dakota Utah Vermont
August changes: Missouri to Lean R September changes: Vermont to Safe R October changes: Missouri to Likely R, Montana to Toss-up

Secretary of State

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	1	1	1	4	0	0	0
September 1, 2012	2	1	1	3	0	0	0
October 1, 2012	1	1	1	4	0	0	0
November 1, 2012	1	1	2	3	0	0	0

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
Vermont	West Virginia	North Carolina Oregon	Missouri Montana Washington
August changes: West Virginia to Likely D; Oregon to Safe D September changes: Oregon to Toss-up October changes: Oregon to Lean D

Attorney General

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	1	2		6		1
September 1, 2012	1	1	1	6		1
October 1, 2012	1	1	2	5		1
November 1, 2012	3	2	1	1		2	1

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
North Carolina Oregon Vermont	Pennsylvania Missouri	West Virginia	Washington		Indiana Montana	Utah
August changes: Oregon to Lean D September changes: Pennsylvania to Lean D October changes: Oregon and Vermont to Safe D, Missouri to Likely D, West Virginia to Lean D, Indiana and Montana to Likely R

State Senate

2012 State Senate Races

Democrats Before election: 19 Predicted after election: 14 (Excluding 6 Toss-ups) Actual: 20	Republicans Before election: 28 Predicted after election: 30 (Excluding 6 Toss-ups) Actual: 28
*Note: There were two senates that were tied heading into the 2012 elections -- Alaska and Virginia. Additionally, Nebraska is a nonpartisan chamber. Because Virginia does not hold elections in 2012, there are 48 possible chambers that can be held by a party. The numbers in the tables below do not include chambers without elections in 2012.

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	7	3	2	7	3	6	14
September 1, 2012	7	2	3	6	5	5	14
October 1, 2012	8	1	3	6	5	5	14
November 1, 2012	7	1	4	5	6	5	14

Note: Since one state senate is nonpartisan, a political party is defined as having the majority of state senates if it has at least 25. The Democratic Party needs to win all the Safe, Likely and Leans Democratic, all Toss Ups, all Lean GOP, and one of the Likely GOP states to get to 25. The Republican Party needs to win all the Safe and Likely Republican states to get to 25.

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
California (D) Hawaii (D) Illinois (D) Massachusetts (D) Rhode Island (D) Vermont (D) West Virginia (D) Not up: Maryland (D) New Jersey (D)	Delaware (D)	Possible D Pick-up Maine (R) Connecticut (D) Oregon (D) Washington (D)	Colorado (D) Iowa (D) Nevada (D) Minnesota (R) New Mexico (D)	Possible R Pick-up Arkansas (D) Wisconsin (D) Alaska (Even Split) New York (R) New Hampshire (R) Pennsylvania (R)	Arizona (R) Florida (R) Missouri (R) Montana (R) South Carolina (R)	Georgia (R) Idaho (R) Indiana (R) Kansas (R) Kentucky (R) North Carolina (R) North Dakota (R) Ohio (R) Oklahoma (R) South Dakota (R) Tennessee (R) Texas (R) Utah (R) Wyoming (R) Not up: Alabama (R) Louisiana (R) Michigan (R) Mississippi (R) Virginia (R)
August changes: Alaska to lean R; Pennsylvania to lean R; Washington to lean D September changes: Rhode Island to safe D October changes: Connecticut to Lean D; Iowa to Toss-up; Arkansas to Lean R; Maine to Lean D

Partisan dominance in state senates heading into the 2012 state legislative elections

State House

2012 State House Elections

Democrats Before election: 17 Predicted after election: 16 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups) Actual: 21	Republicans Before election: 31 Predicted after election: 29 (Excluding 4 Toss-ups) Actual: 28
*Note: There was one house that was tied heading into the 2012 elections -- Oregon. Additionally, Nebraska does not have a state house.

Month	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss Up	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R
August 1, 2012	10	1	2	5	5	5	15
September 1, 2012	10	1	2	5	6	5	14
October 1, 2012	10	1	2	5	6	4	15
November 1, 2012	10	1	2	4	6	5	15

Note: Since there are 49 state houses (Nebraska only has a senate), a political party is defined as having the majority of state houses if it has at least 25. The Democratic Party needs to win all the Safe, Likely and Leans Democratic states, Toss Up states, and four Lean GOP states to get to 25. The Republican Party needs to win all the Safe and Likely GOP states and one Lean GOP state to get to 25.

Safe D	Likely Dem.	Leans Dem.	Toss Up	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	Safe R
California (D) Connecticut (D) Delaware (D) Hawaii (D) Illinois (D) Massachusetts (D) New York (D) Rhode Island (D) Vermont (D) West Virginia (D) Not up: Maryland (D) Mississippi (D) New Jersey (D)	Washington (D)	Kentucky (D) Nevada (D)	Colorado (R) Maine (R) Minnesota (R) Oregon (Even split)	Possible R Pick-up: Arkansas (D) New Mexico (D) Alaska (R) Iowa (R) Michigan (R) New Hampshire (R)	Arizona (R) Missouri (R) Ohio (R) Pennsylvania (R) Wisconsin (R)	Florida (R) Georgia (R) Idaho (R) Indiana (R) Kansas (R) Montana (R) North Carolina (R) North Dakota (R) Oklahoma (R) South Carolina (R) South Dakota (R) Tennessee (R) Texas (R) Utah (R) Wyoming (R) Not up: Alabama (R) Louisiana (R) Virginia (R)
August changes: Ohio to likely R; New Hampshire to lean R September changes: Montana to Safe R October changes: Arkansas to Lean Republican; Pennsylvania to Likely Republican

Partisan dominance in state houses heading into the 2012 state legislative elections

Trifectas

See also: Democratic and Republican state government trifectas heading into the 2012 elections

• There were 21 Republican trifecta states
• There were 10 Democratic trifecta states

Trifecta chart

A "trifecta" is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:

• The governorship
• A majority in the state Senate
• A majority in the state House.

Prior to the November 6, 2012 elections, there were "trifectas" in 31 states. Twenty-one of these were Republican trifectas and ten were Democratic trifectas.

Democratic
Republican
Tied Chamber

Methodology

For each of the state races, the expected outcome is displayed in 1 of 7 classifications. The 7 classifications include:

• Safe Democrat
• Likely Democrat
• Leans Democrat
• Toss-up
• Leans Republican
• Likely Republican
• Safe Republican

These are the standard 7 classifications typically used by organizations when assessing the likely outcomes of races for Ballotpedia's projections.

Ballotpedia's methodology

These are the 7 classifications and the considerations taken into account when deciding how to classify a particular race.

Basic considerations

• Safe Democrat
  • If a Democrat currently occupies the position and faces no major challenge in the election
  • If a Democratic candidate vying for the office faces no Republican challenger
  • If the chamber is controlled by the Democratic Party and there is no indication that party control will change.
• Likely Democrat
  • If a state (55% of the electorate or above) went to Barack Obama in the November 2008 presidential election
  • If a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
• Lean Democrat
  • If a state (below 55% of the electorate) went to Barack Obama in the November 2008 presidential election
  • If a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
• Toss-up
  • If the state went to Barack Obama in November 2008, but a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
  • If the state went to John McCain in November 2008, but a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
• Lean Republican
  • If a state (below 55% of the electorate) went to John McCain in the November 2008 presidential election
  • If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
• Likely Republican
  • If a state (55% of the electorate or above) went to John McCain in the November 2008 presidential election
  • If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
• Safe Republican
  • If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position and faces no major challenge in the November 2010 election
  • If a Republican candidate vying for the office faces no Democratic challenger in November

Additional considerations

As election day approaches, in some high profile or high intensity elections, additional information will become available. The additional information that is likely to be judged as relevant for predicting the outcome of a race is:

• Campaign fundraising
• Polls for the office
• Key or surprising endorsements
• Polls for the top of the ticket that might be taken as evidence of a pronounced political tide in effect in that state that could carry down-ticket races along with them.

Congress

Note: The following projections were not conducted by Ballotpedia.

US Senate

Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate
Month	Solid D	Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R
November 1, 2012	8	4	5	10	1	0	5
October 4, 2012	8	4	5	10	0	1	5
September 13, 2012	8	4	4	10	1	1	5
August 21, 2012	8	5	3	9	1	2	5
July 12, 2012	8	4	3	10	1	2	5
May 31, 2012	8	4	3	10	1	2	5
May 10, 2012	8	4	3	10	1	2	5
March 22, 2012	8	4	3	10	0	3	5
March 1, 2012	8	4	3	10	0	3	5
January 26, 2012	8	4	3	9	0	4	5
December 22, 2011	8	5	2	10	0	3	5
December 1, 2011	8	5	2	10	0	4	4

Changes by month

October 2012

• From September 13, 2012, to November 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
  • Pennsylvania went from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
  • Michigan went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • Hawaii went from Tossup to Lean Democrat
  • Arizona went from Lean Republican to Tossup
  • Nebraska went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

September 2012

• From August 31, 2012, to September 13, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
  • New Mexico went from Tossup to Lean Democrat.
  • Connecticut went from Likely Democrat to Tossup
  • Indiana went from Lean Republican to Tossup
  • Arizona went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

August 2012

• From July 1, 2012, to August 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
  • Missouri went from Tossup to Likely Democrat.

July 2012

• None

May 2012

• From March 1, 2012, to May 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
  • Indiana went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
  • New Jersey went from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
  • Washington went from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.

March 2012

• From January 26, 2012, to March 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
  • Maine went from Likely Republican to Tossup.

January 2012

• From December 22, 2011, to January 26, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
  • Michigan went from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
  • Nebraska went from Tossup to Likely Republican.

December 2011

• From December 1, 2011, to December 22, 2011, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
  • Texas went from Likely Republican to Strong Republican.

US House

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month	Likely D	Lean D	D Tossup	R Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Total D	Total R	Total Competitive races
October 30, 2012	14	12	9	18	15	18	35	51	86
October 25, 2012	14	13	8	18	15	18	35	51	86
October 18, 2012	14	12	8	19	14	19	34	52	86
October 11, 2012	12	15	7	18	16	17	34	51	85
October 5, 2012	12	15	7	18	16	18	34	52	86
September 27, 2012	11	15	7	17	16	22	33	55	88
September 20, 2012	10	16	7	17	17	21	33	55	88
September 13, 2012	13	13	8	18	17	22	34	57	91
September 6, 2012	13	13	8	17	18	21	34	56	90
August 20, 2012	14	12	8	17	19	21	34	57	91
August 15, 2012	13	12	9	16	19	22	34	57	91
August 12, 2012	13	12	9	16	19	22	34	57	91
August 2, 2012	13	12	9	16	19	22	34	57	91
July 26, 2012	13	13	8	16	19	22	34	57	91
July 12, 2012	13	13	8	16	18	23	34	57	91
June 28, 2012	14	11	9	15	18	24	34	57	91
June 14, 2012	14	11	9	15	18	24	34	57	91
June 7, 2012	14	11	10	15	18	24	35	57	92
May 31, 2012	14	11	10	16	18	24	35	58	93
May 24,2012	14	12	10	15	18	24	36	57	93
May 17, 2012	14	12	10	14	19	26	36	59	95
May 3,2012	15	11	10	14	19	26	36	59	95
April 26, 2012	18	11	10	14	18	27	39	59	98
April 19, 2012	17	14	8	14	19	28	39	61	100
April 12, 2012	17	14	8	14	19	27	39	60	99
April 5, 2012	18	15	7	14	19	29	40	62	102
March 23, 2012	18	15	7	14	19	29	40	62	102
March 15, 2012	18	13	8	13	20	28	39	61	100
March 8, 2012	18	13	8	13	21	28	39	62	101
March 6, 2012	18	13	8	13	21	26	39	60	99
March 5, 2012	19	13	7	14	19	27	39	60	99

     Solid Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Solid Republican

New York Times Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month	Solid D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Solid R	Total Seats in Play
July 25, 2012	156	23	25	32	199	80
Note: A total of 218 seats are needed for the majority

See also

• United States Congress elections, 2012
• State executive official elections, 2012
• State legislative elections, 2012
• 2012 ballot measures
• Local ballot measure elections in 2012
• Upcoming recall elections

Ballotpedia's 2012 election coverage plans

• Congressional election coverage (reports)
• State executive officials election plan (reports)
• State legislative election plan (reports)
• Ballot measure and recall election coverage (state reports & local reports)