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Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 2
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
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| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District |
|---|
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 20, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic Inside Elections: Lean Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
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Lehigh County Commissioner and Olympic cyclist Marty Nothstein (R) defeated former Lehigh Commissioner and businessman Dean Browning (R) in the Republican primary to replace Charlie Dent (R).
Neither Nothstein nor Browning shared Dent's moderate profile. They were both supporters of President Donald Trump and held conservative positions on issues like immigration and healthcare.
Dent, by contrast, was a leader of the Tuesday Group, a caucus of moderate Republicans. He opposed the GOP's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, worked on bipartisan immigration legislation, and did not support Trump in the 2016 presidential election, saying then-candidate Trump's remarks about minority groups and veterans were "a bridge too far."[1][2] He said that Trump's negative approval ratings were a reason why did not seek re-election in 2018.[3]
But while Dent moved away from the president, Nothstein and Browning touted their support for his policies. Still, fights over Trump played into their campaigns.
Browning criticized Nothstein for being supported by anti-Trump Republicans and not being vocal enough in his support for the president. Nothstein's allies said Browning had only recently become a supporter of Trump and the Tea Party wing of the party.
Some local Republican officials, including Lehigh Valley Tea Party Vice-Chair Tom Carroll, did not have a preference between the two, believing that either would be preferable to Dent.
Although both were aligned with Trump, they differed on a number of issues including whether DACA recipients should have a pathway to citizenship, whether bump stocks should be illegal, and how to control education costs.
The 7th District was redrawn in February 2018 after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the Pennsylvania congressional map was an illegal gerrymander and violated the Free and Equal Elections Clause of the state's constitution.
Although the previous 7th District was represented by U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan (R) and was in the Philadelphia suburbs, the new 7th District replaced the Allentown-based 15th District previously represented by Dent. The new 7th is made up of parts of Dent's old 15th district (71.6 percent), Matt Cartwright's (D) old 17th district (24.8 percent), and Tom Marino's (R) old 10th district (3.6 percent).
The new 7th voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump 48.7 percent to 47.6 percent; Dent's old 15th voted for Trump over Clinton 51.8 percent to 44.2 percent.[4]
None of the incumbents of the old districts are running for the new 7th District. A special election for the old 15th District took place November 6 following Dent's resignation from Congress in May 2018.[5] Dent first announced he would not seek re-election in September 2017.
| Pennsylvania voter? Dates you need to know. | |
|---|---|
| Primary election | May 15, 2018 |
| Candidate filing deadline | March 20, 2018 |
| Registration deadline | April 16, 2018 |
| Absentee application deadline | May 8, 2018 |
| General election | November 6, 2018 |
| Voting information | |
| Primary type | Closed |
| Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. | |
For more on related elections, please see:
- Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in Pennsylvania, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in Pennsylvania, 2018
Results of 2018 redistricting
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling.
The chart below compares this new district with the old district that was the most geographically similar to it.
| Old district[6] | Prior incumbent | Prior 2016 presidential result | New 2016 presidential result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15th District | Charlie Dent (R) | R+7.6 | D+1.1 |
Not sure which district you're in? Find out here.
Click the box below to see how the new congressional districts compare to the ones in place before the redrawing.
Candidates and election results
Marty Nothstein defeated Dean Browning in the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7 on May 15, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 7
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Marty Nothstein | 50.5 | 16,241 |
 | Dean Browning | 49.5 | 15,923 | |
| Total votes: 32,164 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Election updates
Candidate forums
- May 2, 2018: Candidates from both parties met at a forum held by the League of Women Voters. See full coverage from the Allentown Morning Call here.
- May 1, 2018: The candidate participated in a debate hosted by the Northhampton Republican Party. See full coverage from Lehigh County Live here.
Campaign finance
- April 25, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised more than $307,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $208,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
- March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from the March 2018 filing deadline showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised almost $292,000 and had about $232,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $203,000 and had about $172,000 in cash on hand.
Campaign advertisements
- April 20, 2018: Marty Nothstein released his first campaign ad, "Meet Marty."
Candidates
Dean Browning
A Tea Party aligned businessman who has served as a Lehigh County commissioner, Dean Browning ran for the U.S. House by promising to support President Donald Trump's agenda and emphasizing the issues of border security, increased military spending, and economic growth.[12] Browning described himself as a "pro-life and pro-2nd amendment Christian conservative."[13] He opposed a path to citizenship for DACA recipients and would not vote to make bump stocks illegal.[14]
Before being hired as the chief financial officer of New World Aviation at the Lehigh Valley International Airport, Browning worked for Coca-Cola, Harvel Plastics, and Air Products and Chemicals. He earned his B.S. in chemistry from Denison University in Ohio and his M.S. in industrial management from the Georgia Institute of Technology.[13]
Marty Nothstein
An Olympic medalist who has served as chairman of the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners, Marty Nothstein ran for Congress by saying he was a "conservative outsider."[15]
Nothstein emphasized his background in athletics and his support for increased border security, lower taxes, and term limits for members of Congress. Citing his support for term limits, he said he would only serve for eight years if elected.[16] According to Northampton County Republican Party Chair Lee Snover, a Nothstein ally, he was a supporter of Donald Trump, although he was less direct about it than his Republican primary opponent, Dean Browning.[12] Nothstein favored a path to citizenship for DACA recipients attending school or serving in the military and making bump stocks illegal.[14]
Before being elected to the Lehigh County Commission, Nothstein ran the Valley Preferred Cycling Center. He was a professional cyclist from 1987 to 2006, winning a silver medal in the 1996 Olympics and a gold medal in the 2000 Olympics.
Candidate list
Republican primary candidates
Political analysis of outcome
- Daily Kos: "Outside groups largely stayed out of the GOP race. Neither Republican spent much money, especially compared to the Democratic contenders, but Nothstein did outspend Browning by a clear $124,000 to $55,000 during the lead up to Election Day. Between that and Browning's poor electoral history, it was a surprise that Nothstein won by so little."[17]
- Allentown Morning Call: "Nothstein, 47, was able to ride to victory thanks to a 1,221-vote margin he built up in Lehigh County, allowing him to overcome smaller advantages Browning had in Northampton County and southern Monroe County. Mike DeVanney, a spokesman for the Nothstein campaign, said the campaign has looked from the beginning to build a wide coalition of supporters. Nothstein was careful during the campaign not to lump himself in with any of the factions within the Republican Party, saying his allegiances were to the district and not a particular caucus...
- Nothstein painted himself as more of a centrist during his acceptance speech Tuesday, but he was forced to the right in the closing weeks of the campaign. His mailers mirrored Trump’s promise to 'Drain the swamp' and asked voters to give him an opportunity to help the president secure the border. The push came as Browning, who often placed himself squarely in Trump’s camp, called for a crackdown on sanctuary cities, securing the border and fully repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.
- 'At every stump speech, I made sure to say I thought the election of Donald Trump was the last best chance we had to turn this country around,' Browning said.
- Browning’s campaign fared better in Northampton County, where Trump won, and Monroe County, where Trump narrowly lost. The 7th District now includes Lehigh, Northampton and the southern part of Monroe County. Browning said he didn’t expect to win Lehigh County, which went to Hillary Clinton in 2016, but hoped to keep the margin under 1,000 with stronger showings in places like Allentown and Upper Macungie Township. He also made a concentrated effort to connect with voters in Monroe County, where neither candidate was particularly well-known.
- Browning said his own history in Lehigh County likely hurt his chances. Conservatives have blamed him for Lehigh County’s 16 percent tax hike in 2011 after he refused to force then-Executive Don Cunningham to make $17 million worth of cuts to county government. When commissioners could not agree on a budget, the hike passed automatically. While Browning never voted in favor of the hike, his opponents have successfully wielded it against him in races for county executive, county commissioner and now Congress."[18]
Timeline
- May 1, 2018: The candidate participated in a debate hosted by the Northhampton Republican Party. See full coverage from Lehigh County Live here.
- April 25, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised more than $307,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $208,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
- April 20, 2018: Marty Nothstein released his first campaign ad, "Meet Marty."
- March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures from the March 2018 filing deadline showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised almost $292,000 and had about $232,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $203,000 and had about $172,000 in cash on hand.
- March 2, 2018: State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) withdrew from the race.
- February 19, 2018: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court voted 4-3 to adopt a remedial congressional plan that redrew the 15th district represented by Charlie Dent (R) into the new 7th district.
- September 7, 2017: Charlie Dent (R) announced that he would not seek re-election.
Endorsements
Nothstein was endorsed by Northampton County Republican Party Chair Lee Snover and Lehigh County District Attorney Jim Martin.[19][12]
Campaign finance
Campaign finance disclosures from the April 25, 2018, filing deadline showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised more than $307,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $208,000 and had about $121,000 in cash on hand.
Campaign finance disclosures from the March 2018 filing deadline showed the following:
- Marty Nothstein had raised almost $292,000 and had about $232,000 in cash on hand.
- Dean Browning had raised about $203,000 and had about $172,000 in cash on hand.
Contribution sources
The Allentown Morning Call analyzed the source of the candidates' campaign contributions in a May 9 report. It found that 77 percent of Nothstein's contributions over $200 were from inside Pennsylvania compared to 41 percent for Browning. Nothstein's largest industry donor was telecommunications ($13,500); Browning's largest industry support was from miscellaneous donors ($11,300).[20]
Satellite spending
- Pennsylvanians For Conservative Policies: As of May 14, this pro-Nothstein super PAC had spent about $120,000 with $95,000 supporting Marty Nothstein and almost $25,000 opposing Dean Browning.[21]
How did the candidates differ?
May 1 debate
In a May 1 debate held by the Northampton Republican Party, Browning and Nothstein agreed on enacting term limits for members of Congress, building the border wall proposed by President Trump, defunding Planned Parenthood, and prosecuting former FBI Director James Comey for leaking classified information.[14]
They disagreed on the following issues:[14]
- Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA): The DACA program allowed persons who came to the United States without legal permission as children to obtain work permits and have a protected status. It was cancelled by President Trump in 2017. Browning said he would not allow recipients to have a pathway to citizenship. Nothstein said he generally opposed amnesty for persons who came to the country without legal permission, but he would make exceptions for DACA recipients enrolled in school or serving in the military.
- Bump stocks: These firearm attachments allow users to convert semi-automatic rifles into fully automatic weapons. Nothstein said they should be illegal. Browning said he would not vote to ban them.
- Controlling education costs: Nothstein said he would encourage students to attend schools for trades like welding instead of traditional colleges. Browning said he would end federal guarantees for student loans, which he said would remove the incentives for students to take loans and for colleges to increase their tuitions.
See the candidates' opening statements below:
|
|
Watch the debate here.
Campaign strategies and tactics
Browning vs. Nothstein
Ideology and support for Donald Trump
The candidates and their allies questioned the other's ideologies and support for President Donald Trump.
Dean Browning made the following statement questioning Nothstein's commitment to Trump's agenda: "To be honest with you, in listening to his campaign speech, other than him saying that he won a gold medal and that he will work very hard and that you don't succeed unless you have a finish line and starting point, I'm not quite sure what his agenda will be once he's in Washington."
Marty Nothstein ally Lee Snover responded to Browning by saying, " Marty Nothstein is going to be 100 percent for the Trump agenda and he is not one ounce against Trump. And if you do some research, if you go back to about 2008 or so, Dean Browning was a RINO (Republican in name only), a huge moderate Republican. He just recently, in the latter years, became a Tea Party kind of Trump guy real recently."
Snover later said about Nothstein, "I would agree, he needs to be officially in writing on the record or on the word on the record on that, but he has expressed to me on more than one occasion that he is a Trump supporter."[12]
The Browning campaign alleged that Nothstein accepted support from James C. Kennedy, who allegedly donated to Barack Obama in 2008, and Wayne Woodman, a Republican who opposed Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.[22][23]
Browning also sent out a mailer in April 2018 saying that Nothstein was part of the never-Trump movement to deny Trump the Republican nomination for president in 2016. It also criticized Nothstein for his support from the super PAC Pennsylvanians for Conservative Policies, which Browning said was funded by undisclosed donors.
Browning said the mailer was intended to highlight “the inconsistency of having a candidate like Marty say they want to go to Washington to support the President and to help drain the swamp while at the same time a never Trumper has funded a substantial portion of their campaign and they are being supported by a Super PAC which is the epitome of how the swamp works.”
Nothstein responded with a press release that said Nothstein supported Trump's agenda and "favors a larger Republican party with many voices.”[24]
In a debate on May 1, both candidates said they supported Ted Cruz in the 2016 presidential election before aligning with Trump.[14]
Electability
Lee Snover questioned whether Dean Browning could win the general election.
She said, "Dean resembles that Rick Saccone out in western PA. He gives me that feeling. Like yes, he's gonna win a primary, he can win a primary, he's got the Republican primary narrative. But I will never be able to drag Dean Browning over a general election line. Marty I can."
Snover also said, "Dean Browning is an excellent Republican primary candidate . . . He's memorized all the lingo, he's got all the right-wing terms, he does the Tea Party, he uses the word 'Constitution.' However, I do not see him as being able to succeed in a general election. He is really not an outsider. Marty is more of an outsider."[12]
Campaign advertisements
Dean Browning
Visit this page to see a campaign ad released by Dean Browning in May 2018.
Marty Nothstein
Nothstein began running this television ad on April 20, 2018.[25]
|
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Hypothetical general election polls
From April 24, 2018, to May 3, 2018, the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College polling outlet conducted a survey that tested six hypothetical general election matchups. All six hypothetical matchups showed the Democratic candidate leading, but none showed any candidate with over 50 percent of the vote.
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | John Morganelli (D) | Dean Browning (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 46% | 28% | 7% | 20% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | John Morganelli (D) | Marty Nothstein (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 45% | 30% | 5% | 20% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Susan Wild (D) | Dean Browning (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 42% | 29% | 5% | 25% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Susan Wild (D) | Marty Nothstein (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 42% | 31% | 5% | 21% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Greg Edwards (D) | Dean Browning (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 40% | 29% | 7% | 24% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Greg Edwards (D) | Marty Nothstein (R) | Neither/Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College April 24-May 3, 2018 | 40% | 33% | 5% | 22% | +/-5.5 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign themes and stances
Dean Browning
Browning’s campaign website stated the following:
| “ |
Secure the Borders & Stop Illegal Immigration “It is an absolute travesty that these two bills have not been sent to President Trump’s desk for his signature,” said Browning. “I urge Senator McConnell to modify or end the Senate’s ability to filibuster so we can advance President Trump’s agenda on securing our borders and stopping criminal illegal immigrants from threatening the safety of law-abiding Americans.” Take on Bureaucrats & Special Interests “President Trump ran on a platform of draining the swamp in Washington, D.C., and I want to join him in that fight,” said Browning. “We can’t expect things to change if all we do is send career politicians from Harrisburg to Washington,” said Browning. “Even at the local and county level, too many of our politicians are so interested in the next step on the political ladder that they become controlled by special interests and wealthy insiders. I have never shied away from tough fights and hard decisions. I will always act in the best interest of my constituents.” Grow the Economy & Create American Jobs “We won’t fix Congress by electing someone who just kicks the can down the road rather than making the hard decisions needed to solve the problem,” said Browning. “President Trump won the White House, in part, because Americans want business leaders from the private sector with real world experience. I know how to balance budgets, meet payroll in tough times, and improve conditions for workers so our economy can grow, and more families can achieve the American Dream.” Rebuild Our Military & Keep America Safe Defend Conservative Values & Individual Freedoms |
” |
| —Dean Browning’s campaign website (2018)[27] | ||
Marty Nothstein
Nothstein’s campaign website stated the following:
| “ |
Term Limits Obamacare Tax Reform 2nd Amendment Right To Life Border Security Strong National Defense Jobs and the Economy Ethics Reform Opioids |
” |
| —Marty Nothstein’s campaign website (2018)[28] | ||
Media coverage
- Bill White, Allentown Morning Call (May 8, 2018): "The problem for me as a registered Republican is that there are very real reasons why I’ll find it hard to vote for either of these guys."
- I’ve known Browning for years and admired him as a hard-working conservative commissioner. But he has built his entire campaign around the idea that he supports Trump down the line, including some of what I think are Trump’s stupidest ideas, and that Nothstein is less loyal to the president. The last thing I want is a congressman who will be another reliable vote for Donald Trump. I admired Charlie Dent because he wasn’t.
- Nothstein has been less vociferously pro-Trump, perhaps because he recognizes that being all-in for this president will be a losing strategy in a general election, if not a Republican primary. He has pushed safer conservative themes that he knows will help him with Trump voters this spring without making it impossible to win in November. Unfortunately, part of his strategy has been ducking most debates, which I don’t like, and I particularly don’t like that he tried to camouflage what he was up to by questioning the integrity of the League of Women Voters, an organization I greatly admire and that I know has been determinedly nonpartisan in running candidate debates."[29]
Noteworthy events
Ryan Mackenzie withdrawal
State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who was referred to by FetchYourNews.com as "Dent’s hand picked candidate," withdrew from the race following the redrawing of the state's congressional map.[30] He officially withdrew on March 2, 2018.[31]
After the old map was struck down by the state supreme court in February, Mackenzie had filed for re-election for his state House seat and for the congressional seat. He said he did so in case he was drawn out of the area he wished to represent in Congress in the new map. Marty Nothstein criticized Mackenzie for this, saying, "He's running for two offices at once. There's an old saying about a servant having two masters. In this case, Ryan seems most interested in serving himself." Nothstein bought a digital ad that featured a picture of Mackenzie and said, “Career politician Ryan Mackenzie: he’ll run for anything.”
In response, Mackenzie said, “I’ve been talking to voters over the past week, and people understand how unprecedented and chaotic this is. Everyone I talk to besides my political opponent has been very understanding.”[32]
Justin Simmons withdrawal
Before Dent announced that he was going to retire, Simmons had been planning to challenge him in a primary, saying that Dent was not doing enough to support President Donald Trump (R). After Dent announced he was retiring in September 2017, Simmons issued statements critical of Dent and state Rep. Ryan MacKenzie, referring to them as moderate or establishment Republicans. He also said that Mackenzie was specifically selected by Dent to run for the seat. MacKenzie's campaign said that Simmons was opposed to Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign while Mackenzie had endorsed him.[33]
Simmons ended his bid for the seat in November 2017, citing family commitments.[34]
Republican split following Dent retirement
When U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent (R) announced his resignation in September 2017, local Republican organizations, specifically the Lehigh County and Northampton County Republican organizations, were divided on who his successor should be. The Northhampton Republicans aligned behind state Rep. Justin Simmons while the Lehigh Republicans, more closely associated with Dent, backed state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. According to state Rep. Peter Schweyer (D), "It’s basically a proxy war for the overall soul and direction of the party."
Northampton County GOP Chairwoman Gloria Lee Snover supported Simmons and was critical of Dent, especially his lack of support for the presidency of Donald Trump. Dent was critical of Simmons and Snover in an interview with the Morning Call, saying, "Simmons is an obstructionist phony who would further paralyze Congress if elected," and "I look into Lee Snover’s eyes and I see a wild-eyed extremist on the fringe."[35]
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[36] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
Race ratings
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District the 194th most Democratic nationally.[41]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[42]
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
- Republicans held 12 of 17 U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Pennsylvania General Assembly. They had a 120-79 majority in the state House and a 33-16 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018
Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- 18 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- 203 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 12,791,904 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 81.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,599 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[43][44]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
48.6% |  Hillary Clinton |
47.9% | 0.7% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
52.1% | Mitt Romney |
46.7% | 5.4% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
54.7% | John McCain |
44.3% | 10.4% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
51.0% | George Bush |
48.5% | 2.5% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
50.6% | George Bush |
46.4% | 4.2% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Patrick Toomey |
48.8% | Katie McGinty |
47.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Bob Casey |
53.7% | Tom Smith |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2010 | Patrick Toomey |
51.0% | Joe Sestak |
49.0% | 2.0% |
| 2006 | Bob Casey |
58.7% | Rick Santorum |
41.3% | 17.4% |
| 2004 | Arlen Specter |
52.6% | Joseph Hoeffel |
42.0% | 10.6% |
| 2000 | Rick Santorum |
52.4% | Ron Klink |
45.5% | 6.9% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.
| Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Tom Wolf |
54.9% | Thomas Corbett |
45.1% | 9.8% |
| 2010 | Thomas Corbett |
54.5% | Dan Onorato |
45.5% | 9.0% |
| 2006 | Ed Rendell |
60.4% | Lynn Swann |
39.6% | 20.8% |
| 2002 | Ed Rendell |
53.4% | Mike Fisher |
44.3% | 9.1% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2014 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2012 | 13 |
72.2% | 5 |
27.8% | R+8 |
| 2010 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2008 | 7 |
36.8% | 12 |
63.2% | D+5 |
| 2006 | 8 |
42.1% | 11 |
57.9% | D+3 |
| 2004 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2002 | 12 |
63.2% | 7 |
36.8% | R+5 |
| 2000 | 11 |
52.4% | 10 |
47.6% | R+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2025
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | _ |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2018
- United States House elections in Pennsylvania (May 15, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Morning Call, "Charlie Dent on not voting for Trump: He's crossed 'a bridge too far'," August 3, 2016
- ↑ NPR, "Rep. Charlie Dent Discusses How House Will Approach Immigration Bill," January 23, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "GOP congressman says Trump a factor in decision to not seek re-election," December 28, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Under swingy Pennsylvania's new map, Trump won 10 districts and Clinton 8. The old split: 12-6 Trump," February 19, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Moderate GOP voice Rep. Charlie Dent to resign from Congress in May," April 17, 2018
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Refers to the old district that makes up a plurality of the new district.
- ↑ The old 1st and 11th districts did not make up a plurality of any of the new districts. The 1st District went for Hillary Clinton by 61.3 percentage points and was represented by Bob Brady (D). The 11th District went for Donald Trump by 23.8 percentage points and was represented by Lou Barletta (R).
- ↑ District 13 incumbent Brendan Boyle (D) filed for re-election in the new 2nd District.
- ↑ District 17 incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) filed for re-election in the new 8th District.
- ↑ Lamb was elected in a March 2018 special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R).
- ↑ Lamb filed to run for PA-17 in the 2018 election.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 Salon, "Donald Trump’s shadow looms over a swing district in Pennsylvania," April 8, 2018
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Dean Browning for Congress, "About," accessed April 20, 2018
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 Lehigh Valley Live, "In their own words: Meet the Lehigh Valley Republicans running for Congress," May 2, 2018
- ↑ Lebanon Daily News, "Former pro cyclist and 'conservative outsider' runs for Charlie Dent's seat," October 24, 2017
- ↑ Marty Nothstein for Congress, "Nothstein to Self-Impose Term Limits, If Elected," December 14, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Why you should be skeptical that a progressive primary victor can't win in Nebraska," May 17, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "Lehigh County pulled Marty Nothstein over finish line in win over Dean Browning," May 16, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "GOP endorsements for Nothstein, Mackenzie in 15th Congressional race," November 27, 2017
- ↑ Morning Call, "How much is being spent to win Rep. Charlie Dent's seat?" May 9, 2018
- ↑ ProPublica, "Election Databot," accessed April 26, 2018
- ↑ Dean Browning for Congress, "Nothstein Backed by “Never Trump” Liberals & Shadowy Dark Money Super PAC," April 12, 2018
- ↑ Dean Browning for Congress, "Lone Donor to Marty Nothstein Super PAC Gave Maximum Contribution to Barack Obama," April 16, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "Browning aims to draw contrast with Nothstein over Trump in Lehigh Valley congress race," April 12, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "First TV ad airs in race to fill Charlie Dent's seat in Congress," April 20, 2018
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Dean Browning for Congress, “Issues,” accessed April 20, 2018
- ↑ Marty Nothstein for Congress, “Issues,” accessed April 20, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "7th District Republicans Slug It Out," May 8, 2018
- ↑ FetchYourNews.com, "Will Charlie Dent Retire clearing the way for Republican Establishment Candidate Ryan Mackenzie?" September 14, 2017
- ↑ Morning Call, "Republican Ryan Mackenzie drops out of race for Congress in Lehigh Valley," March 2, 2018
- ↑ Morning Call, "Marty Nothstein hits Ryan Mackenzie on running for 2 offices simultaneously," February 21, 2018
- ↑ Politics PA, "Mackenzie Campaign Accuses Simmons of Being ‘Never Trump’," September 18, 2017
- ↑ Morning Call, "Justin Simmons drops out of 15th District congressional race; crowded field grows," November 17, 2017
- ↑ Morning Call, "15th congressional district election opens public rift between Lehigh Valley counties' GOP," September 29, 2017
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
