Ballotpedia's Top 10 primaries, June 28, 2018

We’ve identified 10 primaries in each party as the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within a party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

Political newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's victory over incumbent representative and House Democratic Caucus chairman Joseph Crowley on June 26th highlights the ongoing ideological contests occurring in House races within the Democratic Party. Her win in New York's 14th Congressional District is not only added to our Top 10 list, it assumes the top spot on the Democratic side. Four of the six U.S. House races on our Top 10 Democratic primaries list feature spirited battles involving candidates backed by progressive groups. The one contest added to our Top 10 Republican primaries list is state Rep. Katie Arrington's defeat of incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District on June 12th. Sanford's loss has been widely seen as highlighting the electoral perils of Republican candidates who publicly criticize President Donald Trump.

As of June 28, 2018, these two lists contain primaries for nine U.S. House seats, five governor’s races, five U.S. Senate seats, and the primary for attorney general of Alabama. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: June 28, 2018

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Top 10 Democratic Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (-) New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26) - newly added
2. (1) Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)
3. (2) Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)
4. (3) Florida governor (August 28)
5. (4) Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)
6. (5) Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)
7. (6) Colorado governor (June 26)
8. (7) Minnesota governor (August 14)
9. (9) New York governor (September 13)
10. (-) Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District (September 4) - newly added

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District (May 15)

Georgia governor (May 22)

Top 10 Republican Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Arizona Senate (August 28)
2. (2) Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
3. (3) West Virginia Senate (May 8)
4. (-) South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12) - newly added
5. (4) New York's 11th Congressional District (June 26)
6. (5) Alabama Attorney General (June 5)
7. (7) Montana Senate (June 5)
8. (10) Virginia Senate (June 12)
9. (9) Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)
10. (6) Indiana Senate (May 8)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Colorado's 5th Congressional District (June 26)

Top 10 Democratic Primaries race summaries

• New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26)

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Democratic primary)

Long-time incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley, who had not seen a primary challenge since 2004, was defeated by self-described democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic primary for New York's 14th District. Crowley became the first Democratic incumbent member of Congress to lose in the primary in 2018. He had been a congressman since 1999 and was chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, the 4th highest-ranking member in the Democratic Party leadership. Crowley was also identified by Roll Call as one of six Democrats most likely to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should she step down as House Minority Leader. At the end of March 2018, Crowley had a 22-to-1 fundraising lead over Ocasio-Cortez, who had pledged not to accept contributions from lobbyists.

Ocasio-Cortez garnered endorsements from progressive groups including Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and NYC Democratic Socialists of America. Crowley's list of endorsements included more than 20 labor unions, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, and more than a dozen state legislators. Both candidates expressed support for $15 minimum wage and Medicare for All policies; Ocasio-Cortez credited her campaign with pushing Crowley to the left on these issues, while Crowley's campaign argued that "he's always been a progressive advocate."

• Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)

See also: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)

Moderates and progressives clashed in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15, where nonprofit executive and Metropolitan Community College board member Kara Eastman defeated the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford. Ashford, who held the seat for a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which added him to its “Red to Blue” list. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee backed Eastman. She also had the support of local unions and state figures such as state Sens. Tony Vargas and Justin Wayne. Eastman ran on a platform that included tuition-free college and universal healthcare.

Eastman defeated Ashford by just over 1,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent. While progressive groups celebrated Eastman's victory, political observers questioned whether her victory hurt Dems' chances to win the seat. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted after the primary that they were changing the rating on the general election race in this district from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" after Eastman’s victory. “Basically the NRCC got what it wanted and the DCCC didn't,” Kondik said. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a national 527 group and subsidiary of the Republican Party that aims to build and maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives through contributions to Republican candidates and political organizations. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is a similar group which supports the Democratic Party.

• Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

Longtime incumbent Rep. and Blue Dog Coalition member Daniel Lipinski defetaed political newcomer Marie Newman by just over 2,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent, for the Democratic nomination in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District for a seat held by the party since 1975. This race, called "a battle for the soul of the Democratic party” by Kate Sweeny of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was seen as a good example of the struggle between moderate and progressive Democrats.

Newman based her campaign on her opposition to Lipinski's positions on reproductive issues and healthcare, saying that he opposed federal funding for cervical cancer screenings and voted against the Affordable Care Act because of funding for contraception included in the bill. Lipinski countered that he voted 26 times to support funding for family planning programs from 2005 to 2017. Newman received the backing of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the NARAL Pro-Choice America and the Human Rights Campaign. Lipinski was backed by the Illinois AFL-CIO, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), state party chairman Michael Madigan (D), the Chicago Sun Times and the Chicago Tribune.

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Democratic primary)

A four-way primary battle has emerged as Florida Democrats look to take back the governor's office for the first time in 20 years. With Gov. Rick Scott (R) term-limited and most election ratings outlets calling the general election a "Toss-up," the winner of the primary may very well go on to occupy the governor's mansion in 2019. Although the filing deadline isn't until June 22nd, several prominent candidates have begun fundraising and campaigning.

Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, represents the moderate wing of the Democratic Party and often crossed party lines while in the U.S. House. Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine brought in over $10 million through March 2018, partially through self-funding, and describes himself as a "radical centrist." Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum enjoys significant support among minority voters. Gillum has touted his support from grassroots activists and received a boost from billionaire Democratic donor George Soros. Businessman Christopher King has not previously held elected office, but describes himself as a "progressive entrepreneur" who enjoys support from younger voters. Former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), who explored running for this seat with Republican David Jolly as his lieutenant governor, declined to run and instead backed Graham.

• Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)

See also: Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)

Six well-funded candidates competed in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District—a swing seat that simultaneously backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points in the 2016 presidential election and elected Republican incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock. Daily Kos identified Comstock as the eighth-most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterm elections, and it's likely Democrats had to win districts like this one to gain enough seats to win control of the House. Four candidates raised $800,000 or more through the first quarter of 2018: former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), and former Obama administration official Lindsey Davis Stover.

Wexton received about 42 percent of the vote to win the primary. Friedman finished second with 23 percent, and Stover was third with 16 percent. The general election contest between Comstock and Wexton figures to be one of the most closely watched House races of this cycle.

• Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)

Style, not policy, separated Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath as they competed for the Democratic nod in Kentucky’s 6th District. Both were ideologically moderate, said they might oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader, and each said they would work with President Donald Trump on specific issues. Gray was encouraged to run by the DCCC and suggested he would self-fund his campaign, if necessary. McGrath achieved national fame with campaign videos highlighting her military experience and used that fame to build a national fundraising network. McGrath portrayed Gray as the party’s choice for the seat and herself as the outsider.

While Republican incumbent Andy Barr (R) won re-election in 2016 by more than 20 points, forecasters rate the general election as "Leans Republican." McGrath defeated Gray and four other candidates to win the Democratic primary, taking 49 percent of the vote.

• Colorado governor (June 26)

See also: Colorado gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (June 26 Democratic primary)

Rep. Jared Polis defeated former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, and current Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne to win the Democratic primary for this purple state's highest office. While Kennedy was the first choice of 62 percent of delegates at the state party convention in April 2018, Polis received almost 45 percent of the vote to win, compared with Kennedy's 25 percent and Johnston's 23 percent. Polis faces a competitive general election against the Republican nominee, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton in a contest characterized by ratings outlets as either "Leans Democratic" or "Toss-up." Colorado has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last three presidential elections.

Polis led in most polls. He promised free preschool and kindergarten as well as energy independence by 2040. National political figures including Rep. John Lewis (D) and interest groups such as NORML PAC and the Sierra Club endorsed him. EMILY's List and labor unions such as the Communications Workers of America and the Colorado Education Association endorsed Kennedy, who called for increased funding for public schools and the creation of a public option for health insurance. Johnston supported providing two years of tuition-free community college to state residents, the establishment of a civilian work corps, and the expansion of Medicaid to all state citizens. Former Sen. Gary Hart (D) and former Gov. Dick Lamm (D) endorsed him. Lynne, a former insurance executive, ran on her private sector experience and her two years serving alongside term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D).

• Minnesota governor (August 14)

See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Democratic primary)

A three-way battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton (D) unfolded in Minnesota as state Rep. Erin Murphy, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Attorney General Lori Swanson sought the party's nod. Murphy earned the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota's endorsement at its annual convention, defeating Walz and state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), who suspended her campaign. She has served in the state House since 2006 and has held various leadership positions within the DFL caucus since 2013.

Walz has represented the Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District since 2007. Walz's history of representing this swing district was mentioned as a factor in his loss of the DFL endorsement by Dana Melius of the St. Peter Herald. He is backed by Education Minnesota, the state's largest labor union. Swanson was serving her third term as attorney general, having been first elected in 2006. Swanson withdrew from the nominating process for attorney general at the 2018 convention after the first round of voting, launching a campaign for governor the day before the filing deadline with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) as her running mate.

• New York governor (September 13)

See also: New York gubernatorial election, 2018 (September 13 Democratic primary)

Incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo faced a primary challenge from former 'Sex and the City' actress Cynthia Nixon. Progressives are lining up behind Nixon, who has sharply criticized Cuomo for what she frames as his shortcomings on the New York subway system, affordable housing, and renewable energy. She supports the legalization of marijuana. Nixon claims Cuomo has allowed Republicans to control the state Senate since 2012 by empowering the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. She is backed by the Working Families Party, Democracy for America, and Our Revolution.

Cuomo, who is a possible 2020 presidential contender, has the support of the state and national Democratic establishment. Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and DNC Chairman Tom Perez endorsed him, and he received the support of 95 percent of the delegates to New York's Democratic Convention. As of the end of May 2018, he had over $30 million in campaign funds available. New York was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections.

• Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District (September 4)

See also: Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District election (September 4, 2018 Democratic primary)

Incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D), who was first elected to the U.S. House in 1998, faced Boston City Council member Ayanna Pressley in a race which received increased national attention after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated House Democratic Caucus chairman Rep. Joseph Crowley in New York's Democratic primary on June 26th. Massachuetts' 7th is the state's only majority-minority district.

Pressley, who is African American, was the first woman of color elected to a seat on the Boston City Council, and said that the district needs new leadership. In a statement she issued upon entering the race, Pressley said, "This district and these times demand more than an ally, they demand an advocate and a champion. Making progress on longstanding challenges requires a different lens and a new approach." Capuano, who is white, is the former mayor of Somerville, and emphasized his progressive record and opposition to President Trump. Massachuetts' 7th is the state's only majority-minority district.

After Crowley's defeat, Boston Globe Deputy Washington Bureau Chief Matt Viser noted on Twitter: "The loss for 10-term congressman Joe Crowley in the Democratic primary in New York is not a great omen for 10-term congressman Mike Capuano in Massachusetts." The following day, Capuano stated he was prepared for Pressley's challenge. Kyle Cheney of "Politico" tweeted, "Just bumped into Rep. Mike Capuano at the Capitol — he was elected the same year as Crowley (1998) and is facing a primary for his Massachusetts seat. He says Crowley’s loss doesn’t portend trouble for his own primary in September. 'I’ve been working my butt off,' he said."

Top 10 Republican Primaries race summaries

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) announced in October 2017 that he would not seek re-election, which initiated a high-profile campaign to succeed him as the Republican nominee. Three candidates have emerged as front-runners in the seven-person field: Rep. Martha McSally, Dr. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. All three have expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is the likely candidate awaiting the winner of this primary, seeking to become the first Democrat to occupy a U.S. Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years. Ratings outlets characterized the general election as a Toss-up.

• Georgia governor (May 22) and runoff (July 24)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary) and Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (July 24 Republican primary runoff)

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp were the top-two finishers in a five-candidate Republican primary on May 22. Cagle led the field with 39 percent of the vote and Kemp was second with 25.5 percent. Because no candidate reached 50 percent, the two will face off in a July 24 runoff. Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. According to Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle decided that he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote.

Ahead of the May 22 primary, Cagle primarily emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and plans to cut taxes and create jobs. However, he went further right on gun policy and immigration in an attempt to win 50 percent of the primary vote and avoid a runoff. Kemp released a series of television ads that emphasized his conservative positions on immigration and gun policy. When announcing his campaign the previous year, he said he wanted to put Georgia's interest before that of other states and focus on the needs of rural Georgia rather than metro Atlanta.

The winner of the Cagle vs. Kemp runoff will face former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election. Abrams is the first female gubernatorial nominee in Georgia history and the first black female gubernatorial nominee in U.S. history.

• West Virginia Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in West Virginia (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated coal mining executive Don Blankenship (R), Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), and three other candidates for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia. Morrisey received 35 percent of the vote, while Jenkins finished second with 29 percent, and Blankenship was third with 20 percent. The top three candidates all touted their support of Trump and alignment with the President's agenda.

Satellite groups spent more than $4 million on the race, including Mountain Families PAC and Duty and Country PAC, which have ties to the Republican and Democratic national parties, respectively. Blankenship, who served a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards, spent more than $3 million of his own money in the race.

Republicans considered the Senate race in West Virginia one of the party’s best opportunities to change a seat from Democratic to Republican control. Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election here by 42 points—the largest margin of victory in any state. Morrisey, who unseated five-term incumbent state attorney general Darrell McGraw (D) in 2012, faced Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November.

• South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford became the second Republican member of the U.S. House to lose his primary in 2018 after he was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington by a four percent margin in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Support for President Donald Trump (R) was one of the defining issues of the race. Sanford had been critical of Trump's rhetoric and policies, including Trump's policies on tariffs and trade, and Arrington used those comments as part of her campaigning strategy in the primary. Arrington was endorsed by Trump just hours before polls closed on June 12.

In his concession speech, Sanford said he didn't regret his positions regarding Trump: "It may have cost me an election in this case, but I stand by every one of those decisions to disagree with the president." The risks of opposing Trump were evident to other Republicans after Sanford's loss. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said, "I think it's quite obvious that people don't like, you know, when somebody's overly critical of the President. I thought Mark was very principled. But you know, it will be interesting to see what it comes down to ultimately." Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) stated that perhaps the issue was Sanford's criticism being so public, "I have some differences with the way we're handling tariffs, but I haven't gone out and aired those differences to the media first. I go to the White House, and there's been an open door and a dialogue going on." Outgoing Arizona Sen. Flake, who had also criticized the president publicly, stated, "This is Trump's party. We've all felt it. It was reiterated last night. If you want to win a Republican primary, you can't deviate much from the script. It's the President's script. You can't criticize policy or behavior."

• New York's 11th Congressional District (June 26)

See also New York's 11th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

U.S. Rep. Dan Donovan defeated former incumbent Michael Grimm for a Staten Island congressional seat that could be competitive in the general election. Grimm had hoped to reclaim a seat that he held for two terms but from which he was forced to resign from in 2015 after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. Donovan won the special election to replace Grimm and was re-elected in 2016. Personal attacks defined the race, with Donovan calling Grimm "the convict congressman" and Grimm calling Donovan "Desperate Dan." Beyond the attacks, Grimm and Donovan each tried to define themselves as the true Trump candidate. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

Trump explicitly endorsed Donovan on May 30th, saying Donovan was more likely to hold the seat in the general election. Grimm criticized Donovan for voting against the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and legislation to strip sanctuary cities (such as New York City) of federal funding. Donovan criticized Grimm for his votes in favor of bilateral trade agreements while he served in Congress, painting Grimm’s record as out of sync with the president’s agenda. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the state's Conservative and Reform parties, and the New York AFL-CIO endorsed Donovan. Satellite groups allied with Donovan—including the business-aligned U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the moderate Defending Main Street Super PAC, and the pro-Trump America First Action—spent over $1 million supporting him.

• Alabama Attorney General (June 5)

See also: Alabama Attorney General election, 2018 (June 5 Republican primary)

Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) ran for a full term for this position after being appointed in 2017. He joined Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) and South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R) as Republican state executives in the South running for a first full term after being appointed to office, and he faced multiple Republican primary challengers. No candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 5 primary. Marshall received 28.4 percent of the vote, while former Attorney General Troy King took 28.0 percent. Both candidates advanced to a primary runoff election on July 17th.

Marshall was appointed attorney general in February 2017 by then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) following Luther Strange's (R) resignation to accept a seat in the U.S. Senate. Marshall emphasized his achievements since taking office on the campaign trail, touting his office's policy initiatives on opioids and violent crime as well as litigation concerning immigration and firearms regulations. King was state attorney general from 2004 until 2011 and lost to Strange in the 2010 Republican primary. King cast his run for office as a second chance, saying that "I know a lot more now than I did seven years ago." King's campaign referred to his campaign slogan Take Alabama Back, emphasizing King's challenge to corruption, violent crime, and the political establishment. Some political insiders in Alabama considered this contest as more compelling than the open seat race for governor in the state.

• Montana Senate (June 5)

See also: United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP Senate nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in November. Rosendale was backed by several prominent conservatives, including the Club for Growth, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Former state judge Russ Fagg, who billed himself as a center-right Republican with deep ties to the state, finished second in the primary. Fagg had endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens, and said his pragmatism and state ties made him the most electable candidate. Also running were Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman, and state Sen. Albert Olszewski, who finished third and fourth, respectively.

Although the candidates generally focused on Tester rather than each other for much of the primary, Fagg attacked Rosendale for moving to Montana from Maryland to start a political career and criticized him for opposing the death penalty and being endorsed by Steve Bannon. The Club for Growth countered those attacks by spending over $1 million attacking Fagg. Rosendale also said his support from national conservatives made him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester. Tester is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents after Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

• Virginia Senate (June 12)

See also United States Senate election in Virginia (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

In deciding who would take on U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in November, Virginia Republicans had a choice between Corey Stewart, a Prince William County supervisor tied to President Donald Trump, state Del. Nick Freitas, and minister E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013. Running on a promise to protect the state’s Confederate monuments, Stewart lost the 2017 Republican gubernatorial primary to Ed Gillespie by one point. After Gillespie lost the general election to Ralph Northam (D), Stewart said a pro-Trump candidate like himself would have fared better. Although Freitas also supported Trump and his agenda, he made libertarian policies the focus of his campaign. He supported decriminalizing marijuana at the federal level and limiting U.S. involvement in foreign wars. Republican strategists and election experts disagreed on whether Freitas could compete with Stewart, the frontrunner, in the primary due to his lower fundraising and name recognition. In the final weeks of the primary campaign, libertarian super PACs, including the Koch brothers-aligned Americans for Prosperity and the Ron Paul-aligned America's Liberty PAC, spent to boost Freitas' candidacy.

Stewart received about 45 percent of the vote to win the primary. Freitas finished second with 43 percent, and Jackson was third with 12 percent. Stewart faced Kaine in a general election that Kaine was favored to win. Without a gubernatorial or presidential race in 2018, the Senate race was at the top of the ticket for Virginia voters and could have affected turnout for down-ballot swing seats held by Republican U.S. Reps. Barbara Comstock, Scott Taylor, and Dave Brat.

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018.

• Indiana Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in Indiana (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

An aggressive contest occurred in this Republican primary, in part because the race, as described by Politico, was "possibly the GOP’s best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats in next year’s midterms." Reps. Todd Rokita (R) and Luke Messer (R) were congressional colleagues, while former State Rep. Mike Braun (R) self-funded his campaign. The three candidates accused one another of disloyalty to President Donald Trump (R) and the Republican Party, ethics violations, and state residency issues. All aligned themselves with the Trump administration and agenda.

Washington Examiner called the race “one of the year’s most brutal, pitting two former classmates and current congressional colleagues against each other.” Added to the mix was Braun, a self-funding businessman who characterized his opponents as carbon copies and career politicians. Braun won this primary with 41 percent of the vote, while Rokita and Messer received 30 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Braun faced incumbent freshman Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in the general election in November.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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