Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Kansas elections in 2014

June 26, 2014

2014 Kansas Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measures • State executive officials • School boards State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

Republicans hold a supermajority in the Kansas Legislature, of which only the House is up for election this year, and an overall trifecta with Gov. Sam Brownback in office. With Republicans outnumbering Democrats roughly 2.9 to 1 in the House and only ten Republicans departing after this year, the 2014 state legislative elections in Kansas are not competitive enough to be considered a Ballotpedia battleground state. However, Ballotpedia' analysis of margin of victory in 2012 state legislative elections shows 23 districts to watch.

The Republican lead in the House is 61 seats (93-32), most recently bolstered by the defection of Janice Pauls to the GOP from the Democratic Party in late May. There are fifteen Republican and seven Democratic districts considered to be competitive or mildly competitive this year, based on analysis of margin of victory in the 2012 election. Thirty-three districts (including one with both parties having contests) will be contested in the state primary on August 12, 2014. But 60.8 percent of seats will pair a Republican and a Democrat in the general election on November 4, 2014.

June 2 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Kansas State Senate and Kansas House of Representatives. Elections in 125 House districts will consist of a primary election on September 9, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections and Kansas House of Representatives elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds a supermajority in the state legislature. Kansas' office of Governor is held by Sam Brownback (R), making the state one of 23 Republican state government trifectas.

The difference in partisan composition between Republicans and Democrats in the House is 61 seats, or 48.8 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. In 76 of the 125 districts up for election, two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Kansas House of Representatives
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	32	28
	Republican Party	93	97
Total		125	125

2015 → ← 2013
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Margin of victory

All 125 seats in the House are up for election in 2014. Nine of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Fourteen other elections were moderately competitive with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. However, one of the mildly competitive seats is now uncontested. Those districts are:

Competitive

• District 5: Incumbent Kevin Jones (R) will face Miranda Rickel (D) in the general election. Jones won by a margin of 5 percent in 2012.
• District 23: Amber Versola (D) will face Linda Gallagher (R) in the general election. Outgoing incumbent Kelly Meigs won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 25: Incumbent Melissa Rooker (R) will face Jennifer Robinson (D) in the general election. Rooker won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 40: Incumbent John Bradford (R) will face Linda Johnson (D) in the general election. Bradford won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 54: Incumbent Ken Corbet (R) will face Ann Mah (R) in the general election. Corbet won by a margin of 0.2 percent in 2012.
• District 56: Incumbent Virgil Weigel (D) will face the winner of the three-way Republican primary in the general election. Weigel won by a margin of 4 percent in 2012.
• District 65: Incumbent Allan Rothlisberg faces Lonnie Clark in the Republican primary. The winner will face Tom Brungardt (D) in the general election. Rothlisberg won by a margin of 0.4 percent in 2012.
• District 79: Incumbent Ed Trimmer (D) will face Larry Alley (R) in the general election. Trimmer won by a margin of 0.8 percent in 2012.
• District 98: Incumbent Steven Anthimides (R) will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Eric Bell and Steven Crum in the general election. Anthimides won by a margin of 2 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive

• District 1: Incumbent Michael Houser (R) will face Brian Caswell (D) in the general election. Houser won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.
• District 3: Incumbent Julie Menghini (D) will face Chuck Smith (R) in the general election. Meghini won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.
• District 17: Incumbent Brett Hildabrand (R) will face Larry Meeker (D) in the general election. Hildabrand won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.
• District 18: Incumbent John Rubin (R) will face Cindy Neighbor (D) in the general election. Rubin won by a margin of 7 percent in 2012.
• District 21: Incumbent Barbara Bollier will face Neil Melton in the Republican primary. The winner will face Amy Bell (D) in the general election. Bollier won by a margin of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 29: Incumbent James Todd (R) will face Heather Meyer (D) in the general election. Todd won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.
• District 30: Liz Dickinson (D) will face the winner of the Republican primary between Randy Powell and Ron Worley in the general election. Outgoing incumbent Lance Kinzer (R) won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.
• District 41: Nancy Bauder (D) will face Tony Barton (R) in the general election. Outgoing incumbent Melanie Meier (D) won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.
• District 50: Incumbent Joshua Powell will face Fred Patton in the Republican primary. The winner will face Chris Huntsman (D) in the general election. Powell won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.
• District 52: Ty Dragoo (D) will face Dick Jones (R) in the general election. Outgoing incumbent Shanti Gandhi (R) won by a margin of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 53: Incumbent Annie Tietze (D) will face T.J. Foy (R) in the general election. Tietze won by a margin of 7 percent in 2012.
• District 69: Incumbent J.R. Claeys (R) will face Gary Swartzendruber (D) in the general election. Claeys won by a margin of 8 percent in 2012.
• District 88: Incumbent Patricia Sloop (D) will face the winner of the Republican primary between Jim Price and Joseph Scapa in the general election. Sloop won by a margin of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 111: Incumbent Sue Boldra (R) will face James Leiker (D) in the general election. Boldra won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive, now unopposed

• District 2: Incumbent Adam Lusker (D) is unopposed in the primary and general elections. Lusker was appointed in January 2014; his predecessor, Robert Grant (D), won by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Kansas' 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 13 open seats (10.4%) in the one chamber up for election.
• A total of 21 incumbents (16.8%) face a primary challenger.
• 75 districts (60.0%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances. As with the 2014 elections, the Senate was not up for election in 2010.

Comparing Kansas Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	8.0%	42	20.0%	18	57.6%	33	28.5	34
2012	30.3%	11	41.7%	4	70.3%	19	47.4	7
2014	10.4%	Pending	16.8%	Pending	60.0%	Pending	29.1	Pending

House

The following table details competitiveness in the Kansas House of Representatives.

Kansas House Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
10.4%	16.8%	60.8%	29.3

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 102 of the 160 districts up for election in 2014, one major party candidate will run unopposed in the general election. A total of 85 Democrats and 17 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 58 of the 160 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of 21 incumbents (16.8%), all Republicans, will face primary competition on August 5. Thirteen incumbents (10.4%) are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 91 incumbents (72.8%) will advance past the primary without opposition. The primary challenges include:

• District 8: Incumbent Craig McPherson will face Stacey Schlimmer in the Republican primary. The winner will face Jodie Dietz (D) in the general election.
• District 9: Incumbent Kent Thompson will face Chad VanHouden in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• District 16: Incumbent Amanda Grosserode will face Jameia Haines and Ray Marshall in the Republican primary. The victor will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Arthena Easterwood and Don McGuire in the general election.
• District 19: Incumbent Stephanie Clayton will face Jennifer Flood in the Republican primary. The winner will face Patricia Stratton (D) in the general election.
• District 45: Incumbent Tom Sloan will face Jeremy Ryan Pierce in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• District 49: Incumbent Scott Schwab will face John Wilson in the Republican primary. The winner will face Darnell Hunt (D) in the general election.
• District 72: Incumbent Marc Rhoades will face Barbara Bunting in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.
• District 122: Incumbent Russ Jennings will face Stan Rice in the Republican primary. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.

Incumbents retiring

A total of 13 incumbents are not running for re-election in 2014. Those incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Kelly Meigs	Republican	House District 22
Emily Perry	Democratic	House District 24
Lance Kinzer	Republican	House District 30
Melanie Meier	Democratic	House District 41
Paul Davis	Democratic	House District 46
Shanti Gandhi	Republican	House District 52
Richard Carlson	Republican	House District 61
Vern Swanson	Republican	House District 64
J. David Crum	Republican	House District 77
Jim Howell	Republican	House District 81
Marshall Christmann	Republican	House District 113
Ward Cassidy	Republican	House District 120
Reid Petty	Republican	House District 125

See also

• State legislative elections, 2014
• Kansas elections, 2014
• Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2014

External links

• Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidate Lists"

Footnotes

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