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Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2024

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2024 Elections
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See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This article provides links to Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of congressional and state legislative elections held in 2024. These analyses provide an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections appeared to be following each state's filing deadline.

These analyses are based on the following metrics:

  • The number of incumbents who did not seek re-election
  • The total number of contested primaries
  • The number of incumbents with primary challengers.

Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness.

Congressional post-filing deadline data by state

Click on a state name to view congressional competitiveness data for that state, compiled after the state's 2024 filing deadline.

State legislative post-filing deadline data by state, 2024

Click on a state name to view state legislative competitiveness data for that state, compiled after the state's 2024 filing deadline.

National competitiveness overview, 2014-2024

The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines unless otherwise noted. Corresponding data from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014 are provided for comparative purposes. For state-specific competitiveness data in 2024, click here. Learn more about Ballotpedia's primary competitiveness methodology here.

The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in 2024. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

2024 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office Districts/
offices 		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate 34 34 8 214 68 14 22 2 55.9% 13 54.2%
U.S. House 435 435 50 1,770 801 137 189 58 47.9% 184 47.7%
State executive 151 155 70 533 259 31 57 23 42.9% 36 41.6%
State legislature 5,470 5,807 962 11,801 10,642 608 1,005 118 16.3% 1,039 21.4%
Totals 6,090 6,431 1,090 14,318 11,768 790 1,273 201 19.2% 1,272 23.8%

2022

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022
See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022
See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 12, 2022

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2022.

2020

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2020
See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020
See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2020.

2018

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2018
See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2018.

2016

See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2016.

2014

See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2014.


Definitions

Below are definitions of terms and metrics used in this analysis.

  • Districts/offices: the number of districts or offices up for election. Since some state legislative districts and state executive offices are represented by more than one officeholder, this number may be smaller than the number of seats.
  • Seats: the number of seats up for election.
  • Open seats: the number of open seats. This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed but withdrew and did not appear on any ballot for the district/office.[4]
  • Candidates: the number of candidates participating in primaries. If the race is a top-two primary, all candidates are counted. In all other primaries, only major-party candidates are counted.[5]
  • Possible primaries: this figure reflects the number of major-party primaries that are possible. In most cases, this figure is twice the number of districts/offices up for election, since every district could have a Democratic and a Republican primary. If top-two primaries are used, there is only one primary per district/office. If a convention is the only method of nomination, it is not counted as a possible primary.[6][7]
  • Contested Democratic/Republican/top-two primaries: these figures show the total number of primaries where at least one candidate will be defeated, meaning there are more candidates in the primary than there are seats.
  • % of contested primaries: calculated by dividing the sum of all contested primaries by the number of possible primaries.
  • Incumbents in contested primaries: the number of incumbents who appear on a primary ballot where he or she could be defeated.[8]
  • % of incumbents in contested primaries: calculated by dividing the number of incumbents in contested primaries by the number of incumbents seeking re-election.[9]


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
  2. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
  3. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
  4. ↑ If an incumbent withdrew from or did not participate in a primary, but later chose to run for re-election as a minor party or independent candidate, his or her seat would not be counted as open.
  5. ↑ If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
  6. ↑ For example, if there are 50 districts up for election, there would be 100 possible primaries. If Democrats in five districts and Republicans in two districts chose to nominate candidates via a convention, the number of possible primaries would decrease to 93
    ((50 * 2) - 7).
  7. ↑ If conventions are used, but could still result in a primary, that is included as a possible primary even if the convention did not proceed to a primary. For example, in some states a candidate can advance to the general election from a convention outright if he or she receives a certain percentage of the vote. If that percentage is not met, the race may proceed to a primary.
  8. ↑ Incumbents participating in contested nominating conventions are not included in this total. If the incumbent participates in a convention and advances to a contested primary, he or she would be included. This figure include all incumbents whose name appear on a contested primary ballot even if that incumbent passed away or unofficially withdrew before the election.
  9. ↑ Incumbents seeking re-election can typically be calculated by subtracting the number of open seats from the number of total seats.
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