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Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022
Last updated October 20, 2022
Ballotpedia's 2022 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that 14.3% of incumbent U.S. senators and representatives did not file for re-election. This was up from 9.6% in 2020 and 11.8% in 2018.
In 2022, there were 35 U.S. House races and one U.S. Senate race without major party competition (meaning the district either did not have a Democrat running or did not have a Republican running). This was up from 20 such races in 2020 but down from 41 races in 2018 and 61 in 2016.
In 2022, 410 incumbent members of Congress sought their party's nomination for another term at a primary or nominating convention. Of those, 163 (39.8%) advanced to the general election without facing a contested primary. This was the lowest percentage since at least 2014, down from 46.8% in 2020.
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not advancing to the general election in 2022
- Primary election competitiveness
- Races without major party competition
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 28 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2020. From 2010-2020, the re-election rate averaged 92.2%.
Incumbents not advancing to the general election
This section breaks down those incumbents who did not advance to the general election into three categories: open seats, incumbents defeated before the general election, and additional retirements. Open seats include any seat that was open at the time of the primary, meaning the incumbent either did not file for re-election or filed but withdrew before the primary. Those incumbents who were defeated in primaries or conventions are listed next. Additional departures includes incumbents who participated in primaries, but did not advance to the general election for other reasons.
Open seats
At the time of the 2022 elections, there were 469 incumbents in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives eligible to run for re-election, including 236 Democrats and 233 Republicans. Sixty-seven incumbents (14.3% of the total) did not seek re-election in 2022. This included seven of 34 U.S. senators (20.1%) and 60 of 435 U.S. representatives (13.8%). By party, Democrats held 39 open seats, meaning 16.5% of the 236 Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election in 2022. Republicans held 28, meaning 12.0% of the 233 Republican incumbents did not seek re-election in 2022.
The reasons for the 67 open seats were as follows:
- Ran for other offices in 2022: 18 open seats
- Nine U.S. representatives ran for U.S. Senate: Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Conor Lamb (D-Penn.), Billy Long (R-Mo.), Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.), Val Demings (D-Fla.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), and Mo Brooks (R-Ala.).
- Four U.S. representatives ran for governor: Kai Kahele (D-Hawaii), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), and Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.).
- Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) and Anthony Brown (D-Md.) ran for state attorney general.
- Jody Hice (R-Ga.) ran for secretary of state.
- Karen Bass (D-Calif.) ran for mayor of Los Angeles.
- Retirements and resignations: 45 open seats
- Democrats: Twenty-eight Democratic incumbents (two in the U.S. Senate and 27 in the U.S. House) announced they would not seek re-election. Of those, five—Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Reps. Debra Haaland (D-N.M.), Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio), Cedric Richmond (D-La.), and Filemon Vela (D-Texas)—left office before the end of their term.
- Republicans: Seventeen Republican incumbents (five in the U.S. Senate and 12 in the U.S. House) announced they would not seek re-election. Of those, three—Reps. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), and Tom Reed (R-N.Y.)—left office before the end of their term.[2]
- Deaths: Four open seats
- Democrats: Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) died while in office.
- Republicans: Reps. Ronald Wright (R-Texas), Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.), and Don Young (R-Alaska) died while in office,
Defeated before the general election
Sixteen incumbents were defeated in primaries or conventions before the general election—six Democrats and 10 Republicans, all of whom were House members. The most recent U.S. senator to be defeated in a primary was Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who lost to Richard Mourdock in 2012.
| Incumbent U.S. House members defeated before the general election in 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent | District | Primary/convention winner | |||||
 Bob Gibbs |
Ohio's 7th | Max Miller
| |||||
| Van Taylor |
Texas' 3rd | Keith Self
| |||||
 Carolyn Bourdeaux |
Georgia's 7th | Lucy McBath
| |||||
| Marie Newman |
Illinois' 6th | Sean Casten
| |||||
| Rodney Davis |
Illinois' 15th | Mary Miller
| |||||
| Peter Meijer |
Michigan's 3rd | John Gibbs
| |||||
| Andy Levin |
Michigan's 11th | Andy Levin
| |||||
| Steven Palazzo |
Mississippi's 3rd | Mike Ezell
| |||||
| Mondaire Jones |
New York's 10th | Daniel Goldman
| |||||
| Carolyn Maloney |
New York's 12th | Jerrold Nadler
| |||||
| Madison Cawthorn |
North Carolina's 11th | Chuck Edwards
| |||||
| Kurt Schrader |
Oregon's 5th | Jamie McLeod-Skinner
| |||||
| Tom Rice |
South Carolina's 7th | Russell Fry
| |||||
| Jaime Herrera Beutler |
Washington's 3rd | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Joe Kent
| |||||
| David McKinley |
West Virginia's 2nd | Alexander Mooney
| |||||
| Liz Cheney |
Wyoming (at-large) | Harriet Hageman
| |||||
Additional departures
- Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) died on August 3, 2022. A special election was held November 8 to fill the remainder of her term. Rudy Yakym (R) replaced Walorski on the general election ballot.
Comparison to previous years
The chart below displays the number of incumbents who did not advance to the general election from 2012 to 2022. Bright blue and red indicate members of the U.S. House. Dark blue and red indicate members of the U.S. Senate. Gray is used for minor party or independent members of either chamber.
Click [Show] to view data from the above chart:
| Outgoing members of Congress before the general election, 2012-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | |||
| 2022 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 2 | 5 | 7 (20.6% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 43 | 34 | 77 (17.7% of total) | ||||
| Total | 45 | 39 | 84 (17.9% of total) | ||||
| 2020 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 1 | 3 | 4 (12.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 14 | 36 | 51[3] (11.7% of total) | ||||
| Total | 15 | 39 | 55 (11.8% of total) | ||||
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 (9.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 19 | 36 | 55 (13.2% of total) | ||||
| Total | 19 | 39 | 58 (12.9% of total) | ||||
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 (14.7% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 8 | 20 | 28 (6.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 11 | 22 | 33 (7.0% of total) | ||||
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 (21.2% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 (9.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 (10.3% of total) | ||||
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[4] (30.3% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 (9.9% of total) | ||||
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 (11.3% of total) | ||||
Primary election competitiveness
The following charts and maps show information on primary competitiveness including the total number of primaries and the number of incumbents challenged in primaries. In this section, the open seats metric only includes those incumbents who did not seek re-election, excluding incumbents defeated in primaries or those who departed for other reasons following the primary.
U.S. House
There were 2,138 primary candidates for U.S. House in 2022, a decade-high. The 462 primaries held in 2022 were about the same as the same as the 463 primaries in 2020 but down from 471 in 2018.
Breaking down by party, there were 230 Republican U.S. House primaries and 67 top-two primaries—both decade highs. There were 165 Democratic U.S. House primaries, down from 198 in 2020 and 243 in 2018.
Incumbents in contested primaries
The number of incumbents contested in primaries, 227, was also a decade high, up from 210 in 2020 and 192 in 2018.
The following table lists incumbent U.S. House members who ran in contested primaries in 2022.
U.S. Senate
There were 334 candidates who ran in primaries for U.S. Senate in 2022, up from 214 in 2020 and 250 in 2018.
The number of total primaries was also higher than in recent years, with 52 contested primaries in 2022 compared to 45 in 2020 and in 2018. Breaking those numbers down by party, the 26 contested Republican primaries was up from 22 in 2020 but down from 29 in 2018. The 22 contested Democratic primaries was the same as in 2020 and up from 14 in 2018. There were four top-two primaries for U.S. Senate in 2022, up from one in 2020 and two in 2018.
Incumbents in contested primaries
Twenty incumbent members of the U.S. Senate ran in contested primaries, up from 15 in 2020 and 2018.
The following table lists incumbent U.S. Senate members who ran in contested primaries in 2022.
Races without major party competition
When either the Democratic or the Republican Party does not have a candidate running in a particular election, the other party is all but guaranteed to win. In 2022, 35 of 435 U.S. House races (8.0%) and one of 34 U.S. Senate races (2.9%) lacked major party competition, more than the 20 total races in 2020 but fewer than in any other cycle since at least 2012. Inversely, this means that 92.0% of all U.S. House races in 2022 were contested by both the Democratic and the Republican parties. 2022 was the first year since 2014 where there was a race for U.S. Senate without major party opposition.
- Twenty-three U.S. House races did not have a Democrat running, effectively guaranteeing the seat to Republicans.
- Twelve U.S. House races did not have a Republican running, effectively guaranteeing the seat to Democrats.
- The U.S. Senate election in Utah did not have a Democrat running.
- Ten states had multiple U.S. House races lacking major party competition in 2022: Alabama (two of seven races), Arizona (two of nine races), California (seven of 52 races), Florida (three of 28 races), Louisiana (two of six races), New York (two of 26 races), Pennsylvania (three of 17 races), South Carolina (two of seven races), Texas (six of 38 races), and Wisconsin (two of eight races).
- Four states had a single U.S. House race lacking major party competition in 2022: Illinois, Massachusetts, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
Comparison with one-party races in previous years
The chart below shows a historical comparison of U.S. House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2018. Blue bars indicate the number of races featuring only Democrats with no Republican competition and the red bars indicate races with only Republicans. Grey bars show the number of races with major party competition, meaning both Democrats and Republicans ran.
Ballotpedia's analysis found that 92.0% of the races for U.S. House (400 of 435) were contested by members of both major parties. This represents a decrease from the 95.4% rate in 2020 but is higher than in any other election year since at least 2014.
Democrats were guaranteed 2.8% of seats up (12 out of 435) because no Republicans were running. Democrats ran in 94.7% of U.S. House races (412 out of 435), down from 98.2% in 2020 and 99.5% in 2018.
Republicans were guaranteed 5.3% of seats up (23 out of 435) because no Democrats were running. Republicans ran in 97.2% of U.S. House races (423 out of 435), the same number as in 2020 and an increase from 91.7% in 2018.
Click [Show] on the table below to view the number and percentage of House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2022:
| U.S. House races with one major party candidate, 2012-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | House races without a Democrat (%) | House races without a Republican (%) | Total House races with one major party candidate | ||||
| 2022 | 23 (5.3%) | 12 (2.8%) | 35 (8.0%) | ||||
| 2020 | 8 (1.8%) | 12 (2.8%) | 20 (4.6%) | ||||
| 2018 | 2 (0.5%) | 36 (8.3%) | 38 (8.7%) | ||||
| 2016 | 26 (6.0%) | 27 (6.2%) | 53 (12.2%) | ||||
| 2014 | 34 (7.8%) | 39 (9.0%) | 73 (16.8%) | ||||
| 2012 | 23 (5.3%) | 18 (4.1%) | 41 (9.4%) | ||||
Terms and definitions
Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2022
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022
Footnotes
- ↑ The 410 incumbents seeking re-election include several who were defeated in primaries or otherwise dropped out before the general election. Those incumbents are included in figures related to contested primaries but not in figures related to open seats in the general election.
- ↑ Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) is not included in this total even though he announced in 2022 that he would resign in 2023 and a special election was held in 2022 to replace him because his seat was not up for regular election until 2026.
- ↑ Figure includes Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.).
- ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
