State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: West Virginia
| 2016 State Legislative Elections | |
|---|---|
2017 »
« 2015
| |
 | |
| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
| Election dates | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about West Virginia legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
West Virginia
| West Virginia Senate | |
|---|---|
 |
| 2016 Election |
| Seats up: 18 out of 34 |
| Margin of control: 2 |
| % Margin of control: 5.9% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
| 2012: Mitt Romney |
| 2008: Sen. John McCain |
- Republicans expanded their majorities in the state Senate by four seats.
Heading into the general election, West Virginia was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. Both chambers of the legislature were controlled by Republicans, while Democrats controlled the governor's office.
Before the Republican Party took control of the West Virginia State Senate in the 2014 election, the Democratic Party had held the chamber for more than 80 years.[1] The Democratic Party in West Virginia might have lost the majority in both chambers of the state legislature in the 2014 election, but the gradual decline of the party in the state began in 2010. Democrats lost 11 seats in the state Senate from 2010 until 2014.
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Republicans controlled the West Virginia Senate by two seats, which amounted to 5.9 percent of the chamber. On the night of the 2014 election, the chamber was tied at 17 seats a piece for Democrats and Republicans, but the party switch by Daniel Hall (R) gave Republicans the majority. Hall changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican the day after the election.[2]
| Partisan balance of the West Virginia state Senate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Seats up | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 34 | 17 | 22 | 64.70% | 3 |  |
|
| 2014 | 34 | 17 | 14 | 41.1% | 3 | |
|
| 2016 | 34 | 18 | 2 | 5.9% | 5 | |
|
Battleground context
The West Virginia State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[3] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 16 and House District 38 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 16 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5]
Out of the state Senate's 34 seats, Democrats controlled 16 seats and Republicans controlled 18 seats. Democrats needed to win 12 of the 18 seats up for election to flip the chamber, while Republicans only needed to retain eight seats to keep the chamber in Republican control.[6] Five seats were competitive in 2016. Four Senate incumbents—one Republican and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Two incumbents, Robert Ashley (R-3) and Art Kirkendoll (D-7), were defeated in the primary election on May 10, 2016.
In 2012, the last year when this year's state Senate districts held elections, three districts had competitive elections. Races in Districts 8, 9, and 16 were decided by eight points or less. District 8 went to a Republican, while Districts 9 and 16 were won by Democrats. However, Daniel Hall, who won District 9 as a Democrat, changed to the Republican Party after the election and resigned at the beginning of 2016. Republican Sue Cline was appointed to take his seat. Herb Snyder, the Democratic incumbent of District 16, did not run for re-election. Democrats, as a result, did not have the benefit of incumbency in these competitive districts leading up to the election.
Some of the major issues among West Virginia voters included right-to-work, the prevailing wage, and safety regulations. These issues were pushed through the Republican legislature during the 2016 regular session. The legislature overturned the governor's veto and passed a right-to-work bill.[7] Labor unions were expected to use their influence in the 2016 election to flip the state Senate.[6]
Voter turnout
Democrats held a voter registration advantage over Republicans of 16 percent. As of September 2016, Democrats made up 46 percent of registered voters, and Republicans made up 30 percent. The other 24 percent of registered voters were made up of Mountain Party, Libertarian, no party, and other.[8] Voter turnout was expected to be high in 2016 because of the presidential election. West Virginia Democrats hoped that the lack of Barack Obama on the Democratic ticket would increase Democratic turnout. Democratic state politicians blamed Obama's "non-existent War on Coal" as one of the reasons for the Republican resurgence in the state.[6][9]
The 2016 primary election had a voter turnout of about 40 percent. In the last two presidential election years, 2008 and 2012, the state had a primary turnout of 36 percent and 27 percent, respectively. In 2014, the voter turnout in the primary was at 19.7 percent and was the lowest in the state's history. The state was ranked last in the U.S. in voter general election turnout in 2014.[10][11]
|
|
Competitiveness
- In the past two presidential elections, the Republican candidate had comfortably won the state. U.S. Senator John McCain won the state in 2008 by 13 points, while former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney won the state by 26 points in 2012.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [12] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [13] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Senate districts: 2 out of 17 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
Races we watched
State Senate District 8 - General election
| A Democrat challenged a Republican incumbent in a competitive district. |
Incumbent state Sen. Chris Walters (R) ran for re-election. Walters was defeated by Glenn Jeffries (D) in the November election.
In 2012, Chris Walters (R) defeated the Democratic incumbent by about six points. This relatively small margin of victory qualified the district as a competitive district in 2016.
State Senate District 9 - General election
| Democrats sought control of a district they had won in 2012. |
In the 2014 election, Daniel Hall, a Democrat at the time, won by a margin of seven points. Immediately after the election, Hall changed to the Republican Party, and later resigned. Republican Sue Cline was appointed to take his place, and defeated Mike Goode in the general election.
State Senate District 11 - General election
| A Democratic state delegate and a Mountain Party candidate challenged the Republican incumbent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Greg Boso (R), who was appointed by Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in January 2015, ran for a full term. Boso defeated state Rep. Denise Campbell (D) and Bruce Breuninger (Mountain Party) in the November election. Campbell was first elected to the state House of Delegates in 2010.
State Senate District 14 - General election
| A Republican state delegate and a Libertarian candidate challenged the current Democratic incumbent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Robert Williams (D) ran for re-election. Williams and Matthew Persinger (Libertarian) were defeated by state Rep. Randy E. Smith (R) and in the November election. Williams was first elected to the state Senate in 2008; Smith was first elected to the state House in 2012.
Williams won in 2008 by 1,107 votes out of 43,303 votes cast—a 51 to 48 margin. He was unchallenged in 2012.
State Senate District 16 - General election
| A Democrat fought to keep an open seat in a competitive district most recently held by a Democrat. |
Senator Herb Snyder (D), who won his last general election by about 8 points, declined to seek re-election. Challengers Stephen Skinner (D) and Patricia Rucker (R) faced off to claim the open seat. The relatively small margin of victory in 2012 qualified the district as a 2016 competitive district. Rucker defeated Skinner in the November election.
This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ West Virginia Encyclopedia, "Legislature," accessed January 20, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedseats - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Daily Kos, "WV state Senate - The Race for 18," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Huffington Post, "West Virginia Republicans Just Delivered A Huge Blow To Unions," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Totals," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Nation, "The Myth of the ‘War On Coal’," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "Top 10 Races to Watch in West Virginia’s Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "10 Takeaways from the W.Va. Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginless - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs nameddailykos
