State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Minnesota
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about Minnesota legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
Minnesota
| Minnesota Legislature | |
|---|---|
 |
| Minnesota Senate |
| Seats up: 67 out of 67 |
| Margin of control: 11 |
| % Margin of control: 16% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Minnesota House |
| Seats up: 134 out of 134 |
| Margin of control: 12 |
| % Margin of control: 9% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
| 2012: President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Republicans flipped the state Senate, securing control of both legislative chambers.
Heading into the general election, Minnesota was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. The state House was the primary focus of legislative elections in Minnesota, with Democrats looking to win the House and pick up a state government trifecta in the process. However, Republicans retained control of the House and flipped the state Senate by gaining five seats.
Over the previous 20 years, Democrats had controlled the Minnesota State Senate, except from 2011 to 2012, when Republicans held the majority. Republicans held the Minnesota House of Representatives since the 2014 election. Prior to that election, Republicans held the majority in the chamber for ten years from 1992-2013, while Democrats held the majority for 12 years during that same period of time.[1]
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Democrats controlled the Minnesota Senate by 11 seats. In 2012, the last year that the Senate held elections, Republicans lost nine seats and control of the chamber.
| Partisan balance of the Minnesota state Senate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 67 | 7 seats | 10% | - |  Republican |
 Democratic
|
| 2016 | 67 | 11 seats | 16% | 16 | Democratic |
Republican
|
House
- Main article: 2016 House elections
Republicans controlled the Minnesota House by 12 seats. Democrats needed to pick up seven seats to win back control of the chamber.
The Minnesota House was one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a 2014 battleground chamber. Prior to the 2014 election, the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) held 73 seats. But, after a loss of nine seats in the general election, that total dropped to 62 seats. Those nine seats gave Republicans control of the chamber, increasing their total seats from 61 to 72.[2]
| Partisan balance of the Minnesota House of Representatives | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 134 | 10 seats | 7% | - | Republican |
Democratic
|
| 2014 | 134 | 12 seats | 9% | 17 | Democratic |
Republican
|
| 2016 | 134 | 12 seats | 9% | 16 | Republican |
Republican
|
Battleground context
The Minnesota State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target, while the Minnesota House of Representatives had been identified by RLCC as a defensive target.[3] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 53 and House District 42B in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[4][5] The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 28B, Senate District 1, and Senate District 58 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6]
In 2012, the last presidential election cycle, Republicans lost majorities in both chambers. Democrats argued that turnout in presidential elections tends to benefit their candidates, whereas Republicans claimed that 2016's presidential race would negatively affect candidates in rural legislative districts, which they saw as battlegrounds.[7][8] Larry Jacobs, professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said that Democrats "will have an advantage" due to turnout, but due to a gap in enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton compared to enthusiasm for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, they would not see the same level of turnout.[7]
Transportation, the economy, and infrastructure were among the top five issues for Minnesota voters, according to Ricardo Lopez of Star Tribune.[9]
Democrats
Minnesota Democrats launched the "Minnesota Rural Initiative" in early 2015. The program looked to train candidates on how to run rural campaigns. In 2014, state House Democrats lost 10 seats, of which eight were in rural areas. State Rep. Jeanne Poppe said that the program could be "the playbook for 2018 and beyond" in other states.[10] The initiative was launched in response to the Democratic National Committee's "autopsy report" of the 2014 mid-term elections. The report did not mention the loss of rural voters or any solutions on winning them back.[10]
Democrats claimed that Republican control of the state House did nothing more than hinder the state legislature. Governor Mark Dayton (D) said, "I have a partisan view, I admit, but I really believe this session and the previous session are evidence that divided government does not best serve the interests of a better Minnesota." Dayton actively campaigned for DFL candidates in order to see his agenda—and legacy—realized. He pushed to see universal prekindergarten, a robust transportation plan, and investments in clean water.[8]
Republicans
Republicans stated that GOP control of the state House was necessary to prevent excessive government growth. Ben Golnik, the House Republican's chief of staff, said, "DFL[ers] were voted out of office in 2014 because voters saw what one-party rule gave Minnesota: tax increases, wasteful spending, including on the Senate Office Building, and full embrace of Obamacare."[8]
Special election
- Republicans picked up a seat in state House District 50B.
On February 9, 2016, Chad Anderson (R) defeated Andrew Carlson (D) in a special election for state House District 50B, which was previously held by Ann Lenczewski (D). President Barack Obama (D) carried this seat in 2012 by picking up 57 percent of the vote and Lenczewski was re-elected in 2014 with a margin of victory of 31 percent. According to the Daily Kos, since Obama only won 50.7 percent of the state House seats in 2012, Democrats would need to have won every seat that Obama won or they needed to win some Republican seats.[11]
Races we watched
Senate District 1 - General election
| Two candidates ran for an open Democratic seat. |
Incumbent LeRoy Stumpf (D) did not seek re-election. Kip Fontaine defeated Jual Carlson in the Democratic primary. Mark Johnson defeated Edwin Dale Hahn in the Republican primary. Johnson defeated Fontaine in the general election.
Senate District 17 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a potentially competitive race. |
Sen. Lyle Koenen (DFL) was defeated by Republican candidate Andrew Lang in 2016.[12][13] Then-Rep. Koenen won the Senate District 17 seat in a 2012 special election after redistricting drew him into the same district as another House incumbent.[14][15] Koenen and Lang both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12]
Senate District 21 - General election
| A freshman Democratic incumbent faces a challenge in a tight district. |
Incumbent Matt Schmit (D) was defeated by Republican candidate Mike Goggin. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.
In 2012, Schmit was elected to the state Senate after he defeated Republican incumbent John Howe (R) by a margin of victory of five percent. What should be concerning to Democrats is that both House districts are held by Republican incumbents. In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the district by 3 percent.[16]
Senate District 24 - General election
| A freshman Democratic incumbent faces a strong challenger. |
Republican Faribault Mayor John Jasinski defeated freshman Democratic incumbent Vicki Jensen (DFL). Jensen won election to the Senate in 2012, defeating her opponent by 5 percent. As with the Senate District 21 seat, both House districts are held by Republican incumbents. In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the district by 5 percent. Both the Democratic and Republican state political parties see Senate District 24 as a priority.[16]
Senate District 44 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Democratic incumbent. |
Sen. Terri Bonoff (DFL) ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, rather than seeking re-election to her state Senate District 44 seat.[12][17][18] Democratic candidate Deb Calvert and Republican candidate Paul Anderson competed for the open seat.[12] Calvert and Anderson both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12]
Senate District 53 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent. |
Incumbent Susan Kent (D) ran for re-election. Kent defeated Sharna Wahlgren (R) in the general election. Kent was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Wahlgren defeated Bill Dahn in the Republican primary. In 2014, Kent won election to the chamber by 4.4 percent.
Senate District 58 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Republican incumbent. |
Sen. Dave Thompson (R), vice president and general counsel for Renters Warehouse, retired from the Senate in 2016 to open a North Carolina office for the company.[19] Republican candidate Tim Pitcher and Democratic candidate Matt Little competed for the open seat in District 58.[12] Pitcher and Little both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12]
House District 14B - General election
| A Democratic former lawmaker challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch. |
Former Rep. Zach Dorholt (DFL) represented District 14B in the state House from 2013 to 2015.[20][21] He lost to Rep. Jim Knoblach (R) by 69 votes in the 2014 election, but mounted a rematch bid in 2016.[12][21] Knoblach and Dorholt both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12] Knoblach defeated Dorholt in the November election.
House District 17B - General election
| A Democratic former lawmaker challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch. |
Former Rep. Mary Sawatzky (DFL) held the seat in House District 17B from 2013 to 2015.[20][21] She lost to Rep. Dave Baker (R) by 214 votes in the 2014 election, but mounted a rematch bid in 2016.[12][21] Baker and Sawatzky both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12] Baker defeated Sawatzky in the November election.
House District 21A - General election
| Campaign contributions flood into an open seat vacated by a Republican representative. |
Incumbent Tim Kelly (R) did not seek re-election. Lisa Bayley (DFL) is a member of the Red Wing City Council. Her opponent, Barb Haley (R), is a businesswoman. Both candidates made significant fundraising efforts, with reports showing a slight advantage towards Bayley.[16][22] Haley defeated Bayley in the November election.
House District 25B - General election
| A former Republican lawmaker is running in a district vacated by a Democratic representative. |
Realtor and small business owner Duane Sauke (DFL) defeated Fran Bradley (R) in the general election. Bradley was a representative in the state House from 1995-2006. In 2006, when incumbent Kim Norton (DFL) won election, she did so by beating her opponent by under 1 percent of the vote. Margins of victory in District 25B have widened for Democrats in the elections following 2006. In 2012, President Barack Obama won the district by 9 percent. Sauke and Bradley both ran unopposed in the August 9, 2016, primary election.[16]
House District 27A - General election
| A Republican incumbent is running for re-election in a district with a history of flipping. |
House District 27A has seen four different representatives since 2010. Since that point, no incumbent has managed to hold the seat past a first term. Incumbent Peggy Bennett (R) looked to break that trend. Her opponent, Gary Schindler (DFL), is the Riverland Community College Dean of Students.[16] Bennett defeated Schindler in the November election.
House District 28B - General election
| A Republican incumbent ran for re-election against a Democratic candidate. |
Incumbent Greg Davids (R) defeated Thomas Trehus (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. In 2014, Davids won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 11.9 percent.
House District 42B - General election
| Two candidates ran for an open Democratic seat. |
Incumbent Jason Isaacson (D) did not seek re-election. Jamie Becker-Finn (D) defeated Tracy Nelson (R) in the general election. In 2014, Isaacson won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 4.8 percent.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Minnesota," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 MinnPost, "Why 2016 will be unlike any Minnesota election in over a decade," July 22, 2015
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Star Tribune, "Minnesota House battle will determine future of state government," August 12, 2016
- ↑ CQ Roll Call, "52 Statehouse Reporters Review the Top 5 Public Policy Issues in Each State," May 3, 2016
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 The Hill, "Minnesota Democrats target rural vote for 2016 state legislative fights," December 11, 2015
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Democrats want to retake the Minnesota state House, but the GOP just scored a key pickup," accessed February 12, 2016
- ↑ 12.00 12.01 12.02 12.03 12.04 12.05 12.06 12.07 12.08 12.09 12.10 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedcandidatelist - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmprkoenen - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs named2012senateresults - ↑ Twin Cities Daily Planet, "Rep. Lyle Koenen of Clara City: Complicated Road to the Minnesota Senate," April 23, 2012
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 Post-Bulletin, "Top 5 legislative races in SE Minn," August 30, 2016
- ↑ MPR News, "State Sen. Bonoff Challenges Paulsen for Congress," April 16, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Statement of Candidacy," May 3, 2016
- ↑ Minneapolis Star Tribune, "Sen. Dave Thompson Not Running for Re-Election," January 5, 2016
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 Minnesota Secretary of State, "Results for All State Representative Races," December 7, 2012
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs named2014houseresults - ↑ Post-Bulletin, "5 takeaways from legislative campaign reports," July 27, 2016
