State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Washington
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|---|---|
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| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about Washington legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
Washington
| Washington Legislature | |
|---|---|
 |
| State Senate |
| Seats up: 26 out of 49 |
| Margin of control: 1 |
| % Margin of control: 2% |
Pre-election control:  |
| State House |
| Seats up: 98 out of 98 |
| Margin of control: 2 |
| % Margin of control: 2% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
| 2012: President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Democrats gained a numerical majority in the state Senate, but a power-sharing agreement gives Republicans effective control of the chamber.
Heading into the general election, Washington was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.
Before the Republican Party took control of the Washington State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2002. The Democratic Party has held the Washington House of Representatives since 2002.
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Republicans controlled the Washington State Senate by one seat, which amounted to 2 percent of the chamber.[1] Before the 2014 general election, Democrats controlled the chamber with 25 seats to 24 for the Republican Party. After the general election, that number flipped, with Republicans increasing their seats to 25 and the Democratic seats dropping to 24.
| Partisan balance of the Washington state Senate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Seats up | Margin of control | % Margin of control | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 49 | 26 seats | 5 | 10.2% |  Democratic |
Democratic
|
| 2014 | 49 | 25 seats | 1 | 2% | Democratic |
 Republican
|
| 2016 | 49 | 26 seats | 1 | 2% | Republican |
Democratic
|
House
- Main article: 2016 House elections
Democrats controlled the Washington House by two seats, which amounted to 2 percent of the chamber.[1] Republican Teri Hickel defeated incumbent Rep. Carol Gregory (D) in a special election on November 3, 2015, by a margin of victory of 10 percent. This Republican special election victory brought the lead of House Democrats to only two seats.
| Partisan balance of the Washington House of Representatives | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | Pre-election control | Post-election control | |
| 2012 | 98 | 14 | 14.2 | Democratic |
Democratic
| |
| 2014 | 98 | 12 | 12.2 | Democratic |
Democratic
| |
| 2016 | 98 | 2 | 2 | Democratic |
Democratic
| |
Battleground context
The Washington State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target. The Washington House of Representatives was identified by RLCC as an offensive target.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 17, House District 44-Position 1, and House District 45-Position 1 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[3][4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 30-Position 1 and Senate District 28 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
The political control of Washington State was subject to drastic change depending on the 2016 general election results. Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, while Democrats controlled the state House by two seats. The following scenarios were possible in the legislature:
- Status quo: chambers are divided.
- In the status quo scenario, the next two years in the Washington Legislature would be similar to the past two years since Republicans took over the state Senate. Neither major party would be able to further their own policy agendas without bipartisan support.[7]
- Democratic trifecta: Democrats retake the state Senate and retain the state House.
- If Democrats controlled the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature, Democrats would have the opportunity to further their policies. In past legislative sessions, the GOP Senate blocked Democratic legislation dealing with gun regulation and climate-change legislation.[7]
- Republicans control both chambers: Republicans retain the state Senate and flip the state House.
- If Republicans controlled both the state Senate and state House, Republicans would be able to create the state budget and further their own priorities without intervention from Democratic lawmakers. Republicans would also be able to block Democratic policies. Democrats would need to have relied on the veto powers of Gov. Jay Inslee (D) to block legislation.[7]
Senate
Seven Senate incumbents—four Republicans and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Since Republican presidential nominees have such a hard time winning in Washington, Senate Republicans looked to differentiate themselves from Donald Trump (R). Brent Ludeman, executive director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said on presidential elections and Washington State that, "We’ve always had to overcome the national environment regardless of who’s at the top of the ticket."[7]
Since only about half of the state Senate was up for election in 2016, Adam Bartz, executive director for the Washington Senate Democratic Campaign, said that Democrats didn't have to defend as many seats compared to past elections. Bartz said Democrats were going on the offensive in many districts and he believed that they "...have really great opportunities this year."[7]
House
Fourteen House incumbents—seven Republicans and seven Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Kevin Carns, executive director for the House Republican Organizational Committee, argued that the open seat created by Christopher Hurst's (D-31b) retirement made the chamber effectively tied going into the general election. Hurst had represented District 31 since his election in 2006. District 31 is predominantly made up of Republicans and the other two state legislators from the district were Republican. In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) and the Republican candidate for governor won the district. Carns said, "I’m really confident that’s going to be in the win column for us. I’m pretty confident there’s going to be a new party in control in January."[7]
Competitiveness
- In the past two presidential elections, President Obama has comfortably won Washington. He won the state in 2008 by 17 points and in 2012 by 14 points.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [8] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [9] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Legislative districts: 13 out of 49 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Nine of those districts were highly competitive and four districts were considered mildly competitive.[10]
Races we watched
House District 28-Position 2 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a closely divided district. |
Paul Wagemann (R) was defeated by state Rep. Christine Kilduff (D) in the November general election.[11][12] Wagemann and Kilduff defeated Michael Winkler (R) and Brandon Lyons (L) in the primary election.[12] With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[13]
House District 30-Position 1 - General election
| A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this district. |
Mike Pellicciotti (D) defeated state Rep. Linda Kochmar (R) in the November 2016 general election.[11]
Kochmar was re-elected to the state House in 2014 by a margin of victory of 13.2 percent.
House District 31-Position 2 - General election
| In this open seat, a Republican and an Independent Democrat faced off in this Republican leaning district. |
Incumbent Christopher Hurst (D) did not run for re-election. Lane Walthers (Independent Democrat) was defeated by Phil Fortunato (R) in the November 2016 general election.[11] In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) and the Republican candidae for governor won the district. Incumbent Hurst won re-election in 2014 by a margin of victory of 3 percent. With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[14]
House District 44-Position 1 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged a recently-appointed Democratic incumbent. |
Former state Rep. and former Snohomish County Executive John Lovick (D) aimed to defend his new seat in swing House District 44 against Republican challenger Janice Huxford, although this race has not yet been called.[11][12][14] Lovick was appointed to the seat in June, following Rep. Hans Dunshee's (D) resignation to join the Snohomish County Council.[15][16] Lovick and Huxford defeated Wilberforce Agyekum (ind.) in the primary election. Lovick and Huxford faced off in the November general election.[12] With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[14]
House District 45-Position 1 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent. |
Incumbent Roger Goodman (D) defeated Ramiro Valderrama (R) in the November 2016 general election.[11] Both candidates were unopposed in the two-party primary. In 2014, Goodman won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 10 percent.
Senate District 5 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning district. |
Rep. Chad Magendanz (R) challenged Sen. Mark Mullet (D) in a Republican-leaning Senate District 5.[12][15] Magendanz and Mullet both ran unopposed in the two-party primary.[12] With Republicans holding only a narrow lead in the Senate coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[14] This race is still too close to call.[11]
Senate District 17 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent. |
Sen. Don Benton (R) retired from his District 17 seat in 2016.[14] Rep. Lynda Wilson (R) defeated Tim Probst (I-D) in the November 2016 general election[11]. Probst also ran for the seat in 2012, losing to Benton by just 78 votes.[17] Wilson and Probst both ran unopposed in the two-party primary.[12] With Republicans holding only a narrow lead in the Senate coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[14]
Senate District 28 - General election
| A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this seat. |
Marisa Peloquin (D) was defeated by Sen. Steve O'Ban (R) in the November 2016 general election.[11]
O'Ban was re-elected to the state Senate in 2014 by a margin of victory of nine percent.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedseats - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 Seattle Times, "Handful of races could flip political control of Legislature," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs nameddailykos - ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 New York Times, "Washington Election Results," accessed November 15, 2016
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedcandidatelist - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedolympian - ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 The Seattle Times, "Handful of Races Could Flip Political Control of the Legislature," May 29, 2016
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedshiftwa - ↑ The Herald, "Lovick Picked for Legislative Seat, But Appointment Process Draws Fire," June 9, 2016
- ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Legislative District 17 - State Senator," November 27, 2012
