State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Wisconsin

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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about Wisconsin legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

Wisconsin

Wisconsin Senate
Flag of Wisconsin.png
2016 Election
Seats up: 16 out of 33
Margin of control: 5
% Margin of control: 15%
Pre-election control: Republican Party
Presidential election
2012: Democratic Party President Obama
2008: Democratic Party President Obama
Republicans expanded their majorities in the state Senate, picking up an additional seat.

Heading into the general election, Wisconsin was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas.

Democrats needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—had competitive elections in prior years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pick up.

Republicans had held the Wisconsin State Senate since 2013. Democrats lost control of the chamber in 2010, but briefly retook control in 2012 after the successful recall of Van Wanggaard (R) on June 5, 2012. Democrats held the chamber until the 2012 general election when Republicans regained the majority. Since 1992, Republicans have controlled the state Senate for 14 years, and Democrats held it for the other 11 years.

Senate

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the Wisconsin State Senate by five seats, which amounted to 15 percent of the chamber.[1] In 2014, Republicans increased their lead in the state Senate, going from 17 to 19 seats. Democrats sustained a net loss of one seat, dropping from 15 to 14 seats.

Partisan balance of the Wisconsin state Senate
Election year Seats Seats up Margin of control % Margin of control Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 33 16 3 seats 9% Electiondot.png Democratic Ends.png Republican
2014 33 17 3 seats 9% Ends.png Republican Ends.png Republican
2016 33 16 5 seats 15% Ends.png Republican Ends.png Republican

Battleground context

The Wisconsin State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has identified the Wisconsin State Senate as an offensive target. The DLCC set the goal of raising $20 million for 2016 state legislative races. [3][4]

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 94 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[5]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 14, Senate District 18, Assembly District 51, and Assembly District 85 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7][8]

Out of the state Senate's 33 seats, Democrats controlled 14 seats and Republicans controlled 19 seats. Democrats needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election to flip the chamber. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—held competitive elections in prior years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pickup.[9] Only eight seats had general election competition on November 8, 2016.

The presidential election likely played a role in down-ballot races in Wisconsin. The Democratic nominee had won Wisconsin the past seven presidential elections.[10] In presidential election years, Democrats tend come out and vote more than in regular election years. Democrats hoped this trend would continue and that it would help them to regain control of the chamber. There was a shift in those trends, with Donald Trump (R) winning the state, likely bolstering Republicans in state legislative races.

Since Gov. Scott Walker (R) wasn't up for re-election until 2018, Republicans maintaining control of both state chambers in 2016 means they would likely be able to pass every piece of legislation agreed upon for the next two years without interference from Democrats.[11]

Competitiveness

  • In the past two presidential elections, President Obama has comfortably won Wisconsin. He won the state in 2008 by 13 points and in 2012 by 7 points.
Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [12]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [13]
  • By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
  • Senate districts: Twelve out of 33 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
  • Seven of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans except two. Five districts were considered mildly competitive.[14]

Races we watched

Senate District 14 - General election

A moderate Democratic candidate challenged a moderate Republican incumbent in the battle for the Senate.

Waupaca Mayor Brian Smith (D), who describes himself as a moderate independent, challenged Sen. Luther Olsen (R) in Senate District 14.[15][16] Olsen, who had held the seat since 2004 and is considered a moderate, survived a recall attempt in 2011.[17][16] Olsen and Smith both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[15]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 18 - General election

An open race in a Republican-leaning district attracted a competitive field.

Sen. Rick Gudex (R) died on October 12, 2016. He did not seek re-election in 2016. The Republican-leaning district was briefly in Democratic hands following a 2011 recall election; Democratic candidate Jessica King defeated then-Sen. Randy Hopper (R) in the recall before losing to Gudex in 2012.[17][18] Mark Harris defeated John Lemberger for the opportunity to reclaim the seat for the Democratic Party in November.[15] Harris faced off against Dan Feyen (R) in the November general election.[15]

Senate minority leader Jennifer Shilling (D) pointed out the importance of winning Senate District 18 for Democrats to have any chance in flipping the chamber or cutting into the Republican majority.[19] She said, "In order for us to build a Democratic majority in both the elections of 2016 and 2018 and, ultimately, 2020 when redistricting happens, we need to win that seat."[19]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 30 - General election

A Republican candidate challenged a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the battle for the Senate.

Republican candidate Eric Wimberger challenged Rep. Dave Hansen (D) in Senate District 30.[15] Hansen was targeted for recall in 2011, but defeated his Republican challenger, David VanderLeest, by close to 11,000 votes.[20] Hansen and Wimberger both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[15]


Senate District 32 - General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.

Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (D) defeated former Sen. Dan Kapanke (R) in a 2011 recall election.[17] Kapanke ran to reclaim the Senate District 32 seat in 2016.[15] Both candidates faced primary opponents en route to a general election rematch. Shilling fielded a challenge from Jared Landry in the Democratic primary, and Kapanke faced John Sarnowski in the GOP contest.[15] Independent candidate Chip DeNure also filed to run in the November general election.[21]


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named seats
  2. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
  3. ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Launches Advantage 2020 as the Key to Success in the Next Round of Redistricting -- $70 Million-Plus Effort Starting with the 2014 Cycle," accessed March 30, 2016
  4. ↑ AP - The Big Story, "Big spending expected for state legislative races in 2016," November 7, 2015
  5. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
  6. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  8. ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
  9. ↑ Wisconsin Realtors Association, "Will the GOP-controlled state Senate be Competitive in 2016?" accessed September 15, 2016
  10. ↑ wsau.com, "Wisconsin's political scene takes shape for fall," accessed September 15, 2016
  11. ↑ Daily Citizen, "A handful of state legislative races are competitive," accessed October 12, 2016
  12. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginless
  13. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginmore
  14. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dailykos
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named candidatelist
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 The Capital Times, "Five Wisconsin Senate Races to Watch in 2016," June 7, 2016
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named 2011results
  18. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named 2012results
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 The Cap Times, "State Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling: Four seats key to cutting GOP majority," accessed August 31, 2016
  20. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Canvass Results for 2011 Recall Election State Senate 30 - 7/19/2011," accessed August 3, 2016
  21. ↑ WXOW, "La Crosse Resident Chip DeNure Announces Campaign for State Senate," April 28, 2016
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