State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: New Hampshire
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| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about New Hampshire legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
New Hampshire
| New Hampshire Legislature | |
|---|---|
 |
| State Senate |
| Seats up: 24 out of 24 |
| Margin of control: 4 |
| % Margin of control: 16.7% |
Pre-election control:  |
| State House |
| Seats up: 400 out of 400 |
| Margin of control: 75 |
| % Margin of control: 19% |
| Pre-election control: |
| Presidential election |
2012:  President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Republicans held on to both legislative chambers in New Hampshire.
Heading into the general election, New Hampshire was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.
Republicans had held the New Hampshire State Senate since 2010 and the New Hampshire House of Representatives since 2014. From 1992 to 2010, Republicans held the state Senate for 13 years and Democrats held it for six years. Democrats lost control of the state House in the 2014 election when Republicans flipped 66 seats. From 1992 to the 2014 election, Democrats held the state House for six years, while Republicans held it for 17 years.
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Republicans controlled the New Hampshire State Senate by four seats, which amounted to 16.7 percent of the chamber.[1] In 2014, Republicans increased their lead in the state Senate, going from 12 to 14 seats. Democrats sustained a net loss of one seat, dropping from 11 to 10 seats.
| Partisan balance of the New Hampshire state Senate | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control[2] | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 24 | 14 seats | 58% |  Republican |
Republican
|
| 2014 | 24 | 2 seats | 8% | Republican |
Republican
|
| 2016 | 24 | 4 seats | 16.7% | Republican |
Republican
|
House
- Main article: 2016 House elections
Republicans controlled the New Hampshire state House by 75 seats, which amounted to 19 percent of the chamber.[1] In 2014, Republicans overcame a 40-seat Democratic majority to retake the state House. Republicans picked up 66 seats, while Democrats lost 53 seats. Since 2010, the state House has flipped party control every election year.
| Partisan balance of the New Hampshire House of Representatives | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control[3] | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 400 | 192 seats | 48% | Republican |
 Democratic
|
| 2014 | 400 | 40 seats | 11% | Democratic |
Republican
|
| 2016 | 400 | 75 seats | 19% | Republican |
Republican
|
Battleground context
The New Hampshire General Court has the third largest legislature in the world at 424 new members. In the previous few elections, the state House had massive partisan swings, while the state Senate stayed in Republican control.
State Senate
Former Senate President Peter Bragdon (R) said that the state Senate does not have massive partisan swings like in the state House because 2010 redistricting made the state Senate's "Democratic and Republican-leaning districts even more partisan."[4] Bragdon said, "The majority has to respect the minority for things to happen in the Senate and that has always been the case. I think Republicans have kept control in part because they don't grind down the Democrats like can happen in the House."[4] Charles Arlinghaus, the president of the conservative Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy and a former GOP political operative, said on the New Hampshire State Senate that, "I see the Senate as wide open this fall. The Democrats could end up with anywhere between nine and 14 members."[4]
Democrats had only held the state Senate from 1998-2002, and from 2006-2010 since 1912. During both periods of time, Democrats were backed by two popular governors who won election by large margins.[4] Seven Senate incumbents—five Republicans and two Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. There was also one vacant seat that was previously held by a Republican. Gene Martin, executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said on the Democrats' chances of flipping the state Senate that, "There’s a lot of these open seats and there’s a lot of vulnerable incumbents. I think we have a great shot at picking up a majority."[5]
Ross Berry, executive director for the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, admitted that the presidential election makes open seats more vulnerable to partisan change but believed all talk about a legislature partisan flip was premature. Berry said, "Of course (the number of open seats) is a factor: the candidate in the seat already has built in name recognition. (But) this is New Hampshire, where independents dominate the scene; our candidates have to earn the votes on their own and show voters why they’re better than others."[5]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 12 and Senate District 23 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7]
As of September 2016, the Senate Republican Majority PAC had almost $250,000 in the bank. The Senate Democratic Caucus had been one of the state's leading PACs in fundraising over the past two decades.[4]
State House
The state House had gone through massive swings in recent years. Democrats overcame a 98-seat Republican majority in 2006 before the Republicans rebounded in the 2010 elections. Republicans overcame a 40-seat majority in 2014 to retake control of the chamber. One hundred and three House incumbents—64 Republicans and 39 Democrats—were not seeking re-election in 2016. There were also twelve vacant seats. The vacant seats were previously represented by five Democrats and seven Republicans.
The New Hampshire House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[8] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
Presidential election
The presidential election was expected to play some role in down-ballot races in New Hampshire, with the most vulnerable races being the state Senate and state House races with open seats. Joseph Bafumi, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, said on open seats that, "Those are the seats that are most likely to change hands from one party to the other and, when they do change hands, they tend to go in the direction of the party that is doing best nationally."[5]
Senate Democratic Leader Jeff Woodburn believed that Democrats could overcome a party registration deficit with a Hillary Clinton (D) win. Dante Scala, chair of the political science department at the University of New Hampshire, wondered if a Donald Trump (R) defeat could propel Democrats to a state Senate majority. Scala said, "What will be interesting to see is which GOPers can keep their heads above water if Trump doesn't come back and loses top of ticket by 10."[4] Conservative Charles Arlinghaus did not believe that this year's presidential election would have a large impact on down-ballot elections. Arlinghaus said, "I can see people making this presidential choice independently. Ideology does not win a state Senate seat either. These races are all about communication and hard work; the candidates who do those two things well, they'll be celebrating in November."[4]
Competitiveness
- In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won New Hampshire. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 6 points.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [9] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [10] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Senate districts: Fourteen out of 24 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Twelve of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans except two. Two districts were considered mildly competitive.[11]
- House districts: 78 out of 204 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Thirty-seven of those districts were highly competitive and the majority of the seats in those districts were held by Republicans. Out of the 77 seats that made up the 37 highly competitive districts, nine of the seats were held by Democrats and the other 68 seats were held by Republicans. Forty-one districts were considered mildly competitive.[11]
Races we watched
Senate District 2 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent. |
Bob Giuda (R) defeated Charlie Chandler (D) in the November 2016 general election.[12]
Sen. Jeanie Forrester (R) didn't run for re-election to her Senate District 2 seat in 2016, opting instead for a bid for the governorship.[13][14] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 50.6 percent to 47.3 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[14] Former Rep. Charlie Chandler (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Former Rep. Bob Giuda (R) defeated Rep. Brian Gallagher (R) in the Republican primary.
Senate District 6 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent. |
James Gray defeated Joe Casey in the November 2016 general election.[12]
Sen. Sam Cataldo (R) retired from his Senate District 6 seat in 2016.[13][14] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 49.7 percent to 48.6 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[14]
Senate District 8 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent. |
Ruth Ward (R) defeated John Garvey (D) in the November 2016 general election.[12]
Sen. Jerry Little (R) resigned from his Senate District 8 seat in June 2016 to accept an appointment as state banking commissioner.[13][14][15] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 50.8 percent to 47.2 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[14] John Garvey was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Ruth Ward defeated Jim Beard in the Republican primary.
Senate District 12 - General election
| A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent for this seat. |
Republican incumbent Kevin Avard defeated Democrat Peggy Gilmour in the November 2016 general election.[12]
Incumbent Kevin Avard ran for re-election in 2016. He was unopposed in the Republican primary. Peggy Gilmour was unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Incumbent Avard was elected to the state Senate in 2014. He defeated then incumbent Peggy Gilmour (D) in the general election by a margin of victory of 1.6 percent.
Senate District 23 - General election
| A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent. |
William Gannon (R) defeated Alexis Simpson in the 2016 general election.[12]
Sen. Russell Prescott (R) retired from his seat in 2016. State Rep. Alexis Simpson was unopposed in the Democratic primary. State Rep. William Gannon defeated Maureen Barrows, Bob Goodman, and Nancy Steenson in the Republican primary. Simpson and Gannon faced off in the November general election.[13]
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Ballotpedia, "SLP Seats up in 2016," accessed November 17, 2015
- ↑ % Margin of control: The number of seats that the majority party controls the chamber by, divided by the total number of seats in the chamber. Republicans control the state Senate by 4 seats or 16.7 percent of the chamber.
- ↑ % Margin of control: The number of seats that the majority party controls the chamber by, divided by the total number of seats in the chamber. Republicans control the state House by 75 seats or 19 percent of the chamber.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 New Hampshire Union Leader, "state Senate: GOP fortress, or could it be overtaken?" accessed September 8, 2016
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 SentinelSource.com, "Vacancies, contested races leave NH Senate makeup in malleable state," accessed September 8, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ 11.0 11.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 New York Times, "New Hampshire Results," accessed November 14, 2016
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedcandidatelist - ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmiscellany - ↑ Valley News, "State Sen. Little Approved as Banking Commissioner," April 7, 2016
