State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: New Mexico
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| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about New Mexico legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
New Mexico
| New Mexico Legislature | |
|---|---|
 |
| State Senate |
| Seats up: 42 out of 42 |
| Margin of control: 6 |
| % Margin of control: 14.3% |
Pre-election control:  |
| State House |
| Seats up: 70 out of 70 |
| Margin of control: 4 |
| % Margin of control: 5.7% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
| 2012: President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Democrats flipped the state House, gaining control of both legislative chambers in New Mexico.
Heading into the general election, New Mexico was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.
The Democratic Party had controlled the New Mexico State Senate since 1989. Before the Republican Party gained control of the New Mexico House of Representatives in the 2014 election, Democrats had controlled the New Mexico House of Representatives since 1953.[1]
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Democrats controlled the New Mexico Senate by six seats, which amounted to 14.3 percent of the chamber.[2] In 2012, the last year that the Senate held elections, Republicans gained three seats.
| Partisan balance of the New Mexico state Senate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 42 | 14 seats | 33% | N/A |  Democratic |
Democratic
|
| 2016 | 42 | 6 seats | 14.3% | 4 | Democratic |
Democratic
|
House
- Main article: 2016 House elections
Republicans controlled the New Mexico House by four seats, which amounted to 5.7 percent of the chamber.[2] The Republican Party took control of the House in the 2014 election. Prior to the general election, the chamber's composition was 37-33, with Democrats holding the majority. Following the general election, that composition was mirrored, with the Republicans holding 37 seats (up from 33) and the Democrats holding 33 seats (down from 37).[3]
| Partisan balance of the New Mexico House of Representatives | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 70 | 3 seats | 4% | N/A | Democratic |
Democratic
|
| 2014 | 70 | 4 seats | 5.7% | 9 | Democratic |
 Republican
|
| 2016 | 70 | 4 seats | 5.7% | 3 | Republican |
Democratic
|
Battleground context
The New Mexico State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target in 2016. The New Mexico House of Representatives was identified by RLCC as a defensive target.[4] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9, Senate District 29, House District 24, House District 32, and House District 43 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Two of those seats, both in the Senate, involved an incumbent.[5][6]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 29, House District 4, House District 15, and House District 30 in their "2016 Essential Races."[7][8][9]
State Senate
Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, thought her party has a "window of opportunity" to take over the state Senate in 2016. If Republicans had flipped the state Senate and kept control of the state House, it would have been the first time since 1930 that Republicans have controlled both chambers and the governor's office. Maestas believed that a Republican trifecta would be beneficial to the state in relation legislation being passed. Maestas said, "With a Republican governor and having taken the House, if we can take the state Senate, then we have a good two-year window of opportunity to pass legislation that would help benefit New Mexico that we’ve never been able to do before. I shouldn’t say never. We haven’t been able to do it in the last 50 years. So this is really important. So we’ve been doing a lot of candidate recruitment."[10] Republicans need to only pick up a net gain of three seats to take over the state Senate.
Republicans targeted Democratic incumbents Daniel Ivey-Soto, John Sapien, William P. Soules, and Michael Sanchez in 2016.[10] Since the state's Senate seats are only up for election every four years, they are up during presidential election years, which tends to benefit Democrats more than in off-year elections.[11]
State House
The Democratic Party lost control of the state House in 2014. Democrats needed to flip just three seats to regain control of the state House. Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, believed that Democrats had a great chance of retaking the New Mexico State House—as well as other chambers in the U.S. that were under Republican control—because of it being a presidential election year. Post said, "We thought that no matter who the presidential nominee was, we thought we had an excellent shot at winning back the Minnesota House, winning back the New Mexico House, for example."[12]
Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, stated that five Republican incumbents were vulnerable in 2016. She did not name the five incumbents, but she said that "[w]e’ve got to make sure and push hard on those efforts."[10] House Republican incumbents in House Districts 15, 24, 37, and 39 all won election in 2014 by a small margin.
Competitiveness
- In the past two presidential elections, President Obama had comfortably won New Mexico. He won the state in 2008 by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [13] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [14] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Senate districts: 10 out of 42 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Six districts were considered mildly competitive.[15]
- House districts: 25 out of 70 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Eleven of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Republicans except two. Fourteen districts were considered mildly competitive.[15]
Races we watched
State Senate District 9 - General election
| The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. John Sapien (D) ran for re-election and defeated Jodilynn Ortiz in the Democratic primary contest. Sapien faced Diego Espinoza (R) in November.
The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 9 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[16]
In 2012, Sapien defeated former state Rep. David Doyle (R) by a margin of 50 percent to 49 percent—just 161 votes out of 23,147 votes cast.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[17]
State Senate District 15 - General election
| The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto (D) ran for re-election. He faced Eric Burton (R) in November.
The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 15 is one of four state Senate seats the party is targeting in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[18]
In 2012, Ivey-Soto defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
State Senate District 29 - General election
| The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Michael Sanchez (D) ran for re-election. He faced Gregory A. Baca (R) in November.
The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 29 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[16]
In 2012, Sanchez defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 55 percent to 44 percent.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 29 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[19]
This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »
State Senate District 36 - General election
| The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Lee Cotter (R) ran for re-election. He faced former state Rep. Jeff Steinborn (D) in November.
In 2012, Cotter defeated his Democratic opponent by a margin of 53 percent to 46 percent.[16]
State Senate District 37 - General election
| The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent. |
Incumbent state Sen. William P. Soules ran for re-election. He faced Cecelia H. Levatino (R) in November.
The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 37 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[16]
In 2012, Soules defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
State Senate District 39 - General election
| An appointed Republican incumbent ran for a full term. |
Incumbent state Sen. Ted Barela (R), who was appointed by Gov. Susana Martinez (R) in 2015, ran for a full term. He faced Liz Stefanics (D) in November.
Barela was appointed to replace Phil Griego (D), who resigned in the wake of an ethics violation.[20]
Martinez appointed Barela to the seat out of four people nominated by six county commissioners. Three out of the six counties nominated Santa Fe County Commissioner Liz Stefanics (D), who competed in the 2016 Democratic primary to replace Barela, as their pick.[21]
State House District 4 - General election
| The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Sharon E. Clahchischilliage (R) ran for re-election. She faced Glojean B. Todacheene (D) in November.
In 2014, Clahchischilliage was re-elected to the chamber by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent.
State House District 15 - General election
| The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes (R) ran for re-election. She faced Ane Romero (D) in November.
In 2014, Barnes was elected to the chamber by a margin of 51 percent to 48 percent.
State House District 24 - General election
| A Republican and a Democrat competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Conrad James (R) declined to run for re-election. Christina Marie Hall (R) defeated Ryan N. Boyle (R) in the Republican primary contest. Former state Rep. Elizabeth L. Thomson (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hall and Thomson faced off in November.
According to the Albuquerque Journal, "The House District 24 seat is seen as key to determining whether Republicans will keep control of the House in this year’s general election and could be one of the state’s most expensive races – both in terms of candidate and outside spending."[22]
The seat has gone back and forth between Republicans and Democrats since 2010. James, the outgoing incumbent, defeated Thomson in 2010. Thomson won back the seat in 2012, while James won back the seat in 2014.[22]
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 24 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[23]
State House District 30 - General election
| The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Nathaniel Gentry (R) ran for re-election. He faced Natalie R. Figueroa (D) in November.
In 2014, Gentry was re-elected to the chamber by a margin of victory of 8.6 percent.
State House District 32 - General election
| A Republican and a Democrat competed for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Dona Irwin (D) declined to run for re-election. Vicki K. Chavez (R) defeated J. Scott Chandler (R) in the Republican primary contest. Candie G. Sweetser (D) defeated Frederick H. Sherman in the Democratic primary. Chavez and Sweetser faced off in November.
In 2014, Irwin was re-elected to the seat by 6.2 percent. The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 32 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[24]
State House District 37 - General election
| District 37 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Terry McMillan (R) ran for re-election. He faced Joanne J. Ferrary (D) in November.
In 2014, McMillan defeated Ferrary by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
State House District 39 - General election
| District 39 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. John L. Zimmerman (R) ran for re-election. He faced Rodolpho Martinez (D) in November.
In 2014, Zimmerman defeated Martinez by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
State House District 43 - General election
| A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent. |
Incumbent state Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard (D) ran for re-election. She faced Sharon Stover (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ New Mexico Legislature, "Political Composition — Legislative Sessions," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedseats - ↑ Ballotpedia, "New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Roswell Daily Record, "GOP reaching to control Statehouse," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ NM Political Report, "NM GOP chair highlights four Senate targets," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ The Atlantic, "Will Donald Trump Hand State Capitols to Democrats?" accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginless - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ 15.0 15.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 The NM Political Report, "NM GOP chair highlights four Senate targets," accessed March 29, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedGOPchai - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ KRQE News 15, "Martinez announces pick for New Mexico Senate vacancy," accessed April 7, 2015
- ↑ Miami Herald, "Martinez picks Republican for New Mexico Senate vacancy," accessed April 7, 2015(Archived)
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 Albuquerque Journal, "House District 24 race has two new GOP faces," May 10, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Releases Second Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
