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State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: New York

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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about New York legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

New York

New York Senate
Flag of New York.png
2016 Election
Seats up: 63 out of 63
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 1.6%
Pre-election control: Republican Party
Presidential election
2012: Democratic Party President Obama
2008: Democratic Party President Obama
Democrats maintained a numerical majority in the state Senate, but did not pick up enough seats to prevent a power-sharing agreement.

Heading into the general election, New York was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Democrats held the numerical advantage in the New York State Senate since a 2016 special election. Although Democrats had a numerical majority, the state Senate was controlled by Republicans through a power-sharing agreement. Simcha Felder (D) was a part of the Republican Conference. Jeffrey Klein, David Valesky, David Carlucci, Diane Savino, and Tony Avella were a part of the Independent Democratic Conference, tipping the balance further towards the GOP. Before the special election. Republicans had held the majority off and on for over four decades.[1]

Senate

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Democrats controlled the New York Senate by one seat, which amounted to 1.6 percent of the chamber. Even though Democrats numerically controlled the chamber, in actuality Republicans controlled the state Senate because of a coalition with the Independent Democratic Conference. [2]

In 2014 election, Republicans gained control of the New York Senate. Before the general election, the Democratic Party occupied 32 seats. However, the general election saw them lose one seat, decreasing their seats to 31. The Republicans, on the other hand, gained three seats to increase their total seats from 29 to 32.[3]

Partisan balance of the New York state Senate
Election year Seats Margin of control % Margin of control # of Competitive districts Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 63 4 6.34% - Republican Party Democratic Party
2014 63 3 4.76% 9 Democratic Party Republican Party
2016 63 1 1.6% 3 Republican Party Democratic Party

Battleground context

Before the Republican Party regained control of the state Senate in 2014, the party had held the majority off and on for over four decades. The Democratic Party gained the majority in 2008 but lost it in 2010. While Democrats held the numerical advantage after the 2012 election, a coalition of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and the Republicans helped give Republicans control.[4] Since Senate Democrats won a special election in District 9 on April 19, 2016, Democrats held a one-seat advantage over Republicans, but the power-sharing agreement between the IDC and Senate Republicans kept the chamber in Republican control.

The New York State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[5] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 6 and Senate District 7 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7]

Of the 25 state Senate seats deemed competitive by Ballotpedia, 24 were effectively controlled by the Republican Party. One of those seats belonged to David Carlucci, a Republican-leaning member of the Independent Democratic Conference. Twenty of those districts were won by Barack Obama in 2012. These competitive races, coupled with the idea that a Clinton win in the state would also bring legislative seats, gave possibility that control of the New York State Senate could have shifted into the Democrats' favor.

An article published on the political research website FiveThirtyEight.com speculated that the presidential election would affect state legislative races. Seth Masket, the author of this article, noted that, historically, there is a measurable "trickle-down" affect from presidential elections. A victory or loss on the presidential ticket tends to translate to comparable gains or losses in the legislative branch. Clinton's victory in New York likely helped Senate Democrats.[8]

Long Island was considered to be one of the key battlegrounds in the state Senate since its nine-member delegation was made up of eight Republicans.[9] One of the campaign strategies for Long Island Democratic candidates was to tie Nassau County's Republican Senate candidates to Donald Trump (R). Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan (R) endorsed Trump for president. Flanagan said, "I’m going to make this unequivocally clear. I’m supporting Donald Trump for president. I’m going to do so with grace, with diplomacy, with passion and with fervor and I’m going to do it with New York style."[10] A Siena poll from September 2016 found that, "62% of voters statewide — including 56% in the suburbs — believed that Trump would hurt, not help, the GOP effort to maintain its Senate majority. The same poll showed 67% of suburban voters held an unfavorable view of Trump and just 32% in the suburbs were prepared to vote for him in November."[11] Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif believed that Democrats had a "complete and absolute fixation on Donald Trump" to hide their failures of when they controlled the Senate in 2009 and 2010. Reif said, "When you are wrong on all of the issues that Long Island taxpayers and their families care about — and the Senate Democrats are thoroughly and utterly wrong — you look for anything else to put in front of voters."[11]

Competitiveness

  • In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won New York by 27 points. He won the state in 2008 by 27 points and in 2012 by 27 points.
Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [12]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [13]
  • By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
  • Senate districts: 25 out of 63 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
  • Thirteen of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Twelve districts were considered mildly competitive.[14]

Races we watched

Senate District 6 - General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Kemp Hannon (R) defeated Ryan Cronin (D) in the November 2016 general election.[15]

Democrat Ryan E. Cronin (D) challenged Sen. Kemp Hannon (R) to a rematch in Senate District 6 in 2016.[16] Hannon defeated Cronin in 2012 by a margin of victory of four percent. Democrats viewed the rematch as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate. Cronin and Hannon both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[16]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 7 - General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

Elaine Phillips (R) defeated Adam Haber (D) in the November 2016 general election.[15]

Sen. Jack Martins (R) did not run for re-election to his Senate District 7 seat in 2016, opting instead for a bid for the U.S. House in New York's 3rd Congressional District.[17] Democrats viewed the open seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[18] Democratic candidate Adam Haber made an unsuccessful run for the seat in 2014.[19]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 9 - General election

A Republican candidate and Green Party candidate challenged the newly elected Democratic incumbent to a rematch.

Incumbent Todd Kaminsky (D) defeated Christopher McGrath (R) in the 2016 general election.[15]

Republican candidate Christopher McGrath challenged Sen. Todd Kaminsky (D) to a rematch in competitive Senate District 9 in 2016.[16][18][20] Kaminsky won the District 9 seat over McGrath in a closely contested special election in April 2016, and Republicans viewed it as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[18][20] Kaminsky also faced Green Party candidate Laurence Hirsh in his bid for election to a full term.[16]

Senate District 40 - General election

A Democratic candidate and Working Families candidate challenged the freshman Republican incumbent.

Sen. Terrence Murphy (R) defeated challenger Alison Boak (D) in the November 2016 general election.[15][16][18][20] Democrats viewed the seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate. [18] Boak defeated Andrew Falk in the Democratic primary. Murphy was unopposed in the Republican primary. [16]

Senate District 41 - General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Former Sen. Terry Gipson (D) was defeated by Sen. Sue Serino (R) in the November 2016 general election, a rematch for Senate District 41.[15][16][19] Serino narrowly defeated then-Sen. Gipson to win the seat in 2014.[19] Democrats viewed the rematch as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[18] Serino and Gipson both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[16]


Senate District 60 - General election

A Democrat, a Republican, and a Green Party candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Democratic incumbent.

Christopher Jacobs (R) defeated Amber Small (D) in the November 2016 general election.[15]

Sen. Marc Panepinto (D) retired from his Senate District 60 seat in 2016.[18][20] Republicans viewed the open seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[18][20] Christopher Jacobs defeated Kevin Stocker in the Republican primary, while Amber Small defeated Alfred Coppola in the Democratic primary. Jacobs, Small, and Green Party candidate James DePasquale faced off for the seat in November.[16]


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ NY Times, "In Rebuke to Democrats, Voters Return Control of New York Senate to G.O.P.," accessed January 21, 2016
  2. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named seats
  3. ↑ Ballotpedia, "New York State Senate elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
  4. ↑ NY Times, "In Rebuke to Democrats, Voters Return Control of New York Senate to G.O.P.," accessed January 21, 2016
  5. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rslc
  6. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "How a Trump debacle could affect the House and state legislatures," accessed August 24, 2016
  9. ↑ Politico, "Democrats' path to possible Senate control begins on Long Island," accessed September 13, 2016
  10. ↑ Time Warner Cable News, "New York Democrats See Opportunity With State Republicans' Embrace of Trump," accessed September 13, 2016
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 NY Daily News, "LOVETT: Donald Trump is Democrats’ new weapon in battle for control of New York Senate," accessed September 13, 2016
  12. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginless
  13. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginmore
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 New York Times, "New York Results," accessed November 14, 2016
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named candidatelist
  17. ↑ Queens Chronicle, "Jack Martins to Run for Rep. Israel's Seat," January 8, 2016
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 Time Warner Cable News, "Where the Senate Dems Believe They Can Compete," June 6, 2016
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named 2014results
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 Times Union, "Senate Campaign Focuses Turn to Long Island, Hudson Valley, Buffalo," July 18, 2016
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