State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Michigan

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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about Michigan legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

Michigan

Michigan House
Flag of Michigan.png
2016 Election
Seats up: 110 out of 110
Margin of control: 16
% Margin of control: 14.6%
Pre-election control: Republican Party
Presidential election
2012: Democratic Party President Obama
2008: Democratic Party President Obama
Little change occurred to control of the Michigan State House.
Main article: Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2016

The Michigan House of Representatives had been held by the Republican Party since 2011. From 1992 to 2013, the Republican Party was the majority in the Michigan state House of Representatives for 13 years while Democrats were the majority for seven years.[1]

Heading into the general election, Michigan was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. The Republican Party held both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship in Michigan, with Republican nominees also dominating the Michigan Supreme Court, despite the elections being officially nonpartisan. This combination made the state government one of nine categorized as a trifecta plus.[2]

The Michigan House had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of 16 seats, which amounted to 14.55 percent of the chamber.[3] Eleven Democrats and 27 Republicans were barred from running for re-election by term limits in 2016. In 2014, 20 Democrats and 19 Republicans were term-limited. In 2014, six districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. That year, Republicans added four seats to their advantage.

Partisan balance of the Michigan House of Representatives
Election year Seats Margin of control % Margin of control # of Competitive districts Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 110 16 14.5% - Republican Party Republican Party
2014 110 9 8.2% 8 Republican Party Republican Party
2016 110 16 14.6% 3 Republican Party Republican Party

Battleground context

The Michigan House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[4] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 83 and House District 106 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[5][6]

Ahead of the 2020 census, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) targeted the state for redistricting purposes. The DLCC set the goal of raising $20 million for 2016 state legislative races. Following the 2010 elections, when Republicans formed a state government trifecta by gaining control of the governor's office and the state House, the state's congressional boundaries were redrawn by the legislature; while Republicans did not gain seats in 2012, Democrats lost one seat due to a decrease in the state's congressional delegation. Republicans continued to maintain their 9-5 lead after the 2014 elections.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 71, House District 91, and House District 99 in their "2016 Essential Races."[7][8]

Competitiveness

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [9]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [10]

In presidential election years, Democrats tend to come out and vote more than in regular election years. Democrats hoped this trend would continue and help them to regain control of the chamber. In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Michigan. He won the state in 2008 by 16 points and in 2012 by 9 points. Democrats cut into Republican House control by four seats in 2012. Thirty-five House districts saw a margin of victory of 10 percent or under in the 2012 presidential race; 28 of them were held by Republicans.[11]

Races we watched

House District 71 - General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a swing district.

Former Rep. Theresa Abed (D) was defeated by Rep. Tom Barrett (R) in a rematch for House District 71.[12] Abed, who challenged Rep. Deb Shaughnessy (R) for the seat in both 2010 and 2012, prevailed on her second attempt.[13][14][15] However, she lost to Barrett in the next election.[16] Abed and Barrett both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12] Libertarian candidate Marc Lord also ran in the election.[17]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 83 - General election

Three candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Paul Muxlow (R) did not seek re-election because of term-limits. Jim Frank was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Shane Hernandez defeated Justin Faber and Matt Muxlow in the Republican primary. Hernandez defeated Frank and Deena Marie Bruderick (Green) in the general election.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

House District 91 - General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a swing district.

Rep. Holly Hughes (R) and former Rep. Collene Lamonte (D) have traded the seat in House District 91 each election since 2012.[18][14] Hughes, who held the seat leading up to the 2012 election, lost it to Lamonte by 333 votes that year.[14] She reclaimed it in 2014 by a 53-vote margin.[16] Lamonte was defeated by Hughes in another rematch for the district in 2016.[12] Hughes and Lamonte both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[12] Libertarian candidate Max Riekse also ran in the election.[17]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 99 - General election

Two candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Kevin Cotter (R) did not seek re-election because of term-limits. In 2014, Cotter won re-election to the chamber by a margin of victory of three percent. Bryan Mielke was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Roger Hauck defeated Robin Stressman in the Republican primary. Hauck defeated Mielke in the general election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 106 - General election

Three candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Peter Pettalia (R) died on September 12, 2016, in a motorcycle accident. In 2014, Pettalia won re-election to the chamber by a margin of victory of 10 percent. Robert Kennedy defeated Erin Kieliszewski in the Democratic primary. Sue Allor defeated David Chandler, Jackie Krawczak, and Jesse Osmer in the Republican primary. Allor defeated Kennedy and Libertarian Dana Carver in the general election.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Michigan," accessed February 11, 2016
  2. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
  3. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named seats
  4. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rslc
  5. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
  6. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
  7. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  8. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  9. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginless
  10. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginmore
  11. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dailykos
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named candidatelist
  13. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2010 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Michigan Secretary of State, "2012 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
  15. ↑ MLive, "State Rep. Deb Shaughnessy, R-Charlotte, Loses Seat to Challenger Theresa Abed," November 7, 2012
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Michigan Secretary of State, "2014 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named libertarianparty
  18. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named 2010results
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