State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Maine
| 2016 State Legislative Elections | |
|---|---|
2017 »
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| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
| Election dates | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about Maine legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
Maine
| Maine Legislature | |
|---|---|
 |
| State Senate |
| Seats up: 35 out of 35 |
| Margin of control: 5 |
| % Margin of control: 14% |
Pre-election control:  |
| State House |
| Seats up: 151 out of 151 |
| Margin of control: 9 |
| % Margin of control: 6% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
| 2012: President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Little change occurred to control of the state Senate and state House.
- Main articles: 2016 Senate elections and 2016 House elections
Before Republicans took control of the Maine State Senate in the 2014 election, they had only controlled the chamber for four of the preceding 32 years prior to the election.[1] From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Maine House of Representatives for 20 years, while Republicans were the majority for two years. Republicans last held the state House in 2012.[2]
Heading into the general election, Maine was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.
Senate
Republicans controlled the Maine State Senate by five seats. In 2014, Republicans increased their seats from 15 to 20, and gained control of the chamber. Democrats previously held the majority control of the chamber with 19 seats. However, following the general election, that number dropped to just 15 seats.
| Partisan balance of the Maine state Senate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 35 | 4 seats | 11% | - |  Republican |
 Democratic
|
| 2014 | 35 | 4 seats | 11% | 7 | Democratic |
Republican
|
| 2016 | 35 | 5 seats | 14% | 6 | Republican |
Republican
|
House
Democrats controlled the Maine state House by nine seats. In 2014, Democrats continued their control of the chamber, but sustained a loss of nine seats. Their total seats dropped from 88 to 79. Republicans picked up 11 seats, jumping from 57 to 68 seats overall.
| Partisan balance of the Maine House of Representatives | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Margin of control | % Margin of control | # of Competitive districts | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 151 | 6 seats | 4% | - | Republican |
Democratic
|
| 2014 | 151 | 31 seats | 21% | - | Democratic |
Democratic
|
| 2016 | 151 | 9 seats | 6% | 24 | Democratic |
Democratic
|
Battleground context
The Maine State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[3] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 6 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[4]
Between January 1, 2015, and July 19, 2016, Maine Democrats raised twice as much as Republicans. Nearly 67 percent—or $680,080—of the $1,008,475 raised came from Democrats, according to filings with the Maine Ethics Commission. Senate Democrats raised $369,426 to the Republicans' $151,518, and House Democrats raised $310,654 to the GOP's $176,877. The top donor in each chamber was the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC). In September 2015, the DLCC gave Maine's Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and House Democratic Campaign Committee each $110,000.[5][6] Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine-Farmington, said that the DLCC might have given money early because it believed that the Senate could be flipped and also to encourage candidates to run.[5]
Outside of the contribution from the DLCC, Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, believed that fundraising between the two state parties had remained even for this election cycle. Savage said, "I think that speaks to an increased competitiveness among the two. It used to be the Democrats were strong."[5] Savage maintains that while Democratic State and House committees have raised more money in recent elections, Republicans "tend to make more effective use" of their money.[5] Phil Bartlett, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, said that the DLCC's contributions indicate their eagerness to help Democrats flip the state Senate and regain control of the state legislature. Bartlett said a Democratic legislature would "provide a check on a governor who has caused Maine to lag behind the national economic recovery and who has put Maine in the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons."[5]
2014 campaign contributions
In the 2014 elections, Republican candidates outraised their Democratic opponents by more than $300,000.
- Democratic candidates raised 45 percent—or $1,402,399—and Republican candidates raised 55 percent—or $1,714,653—of the $3,117,052 raised by the 426 candidates.[7]
- Democrats: Forty state Senate candidates raised $740,970, while 159 state House candidates raised $661,429.[7]
- Republicans: Forty-six state Senate candidates raised $859,806, while 181 state House candidates raised $854,847.[7]
Competitiveness
- In the previous two presidential elections, President Obama comfortably won Maine. He won the state in 2008 by 18 points and in 2012 by 15 points.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [8] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [9] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Senate districts: Nine out of 35 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Five districts were considered mildly competitive.[10]
- House districts: 53 out of 151 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Twenty-four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Twenty-nine districts were considered mildly competitive.[10]
Races we watched
State Senate District 2- General election
| A Republican state representative and a former Democratic incumbent competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent. |
Along with the District 2 primary election, the State Senate District 2 general election was a race to watch. Michael Carpenter (D) defeated State Rep. Ricky Long (R) in the general election for state Senate.
Long faced Carpenter in November. Carpenter is a former state attorney general and former member of both the Maine House and the Maine Senate. He narrowly lost to Willette, the outgoing incumbent, by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent in 2014.
Incumbent state Sen. Michael Willette (R) declined to run for re-election. State Rep. Ricky Long (R) defeated Emily Smith (R) in the Republican primary contest. Michael Carpenter (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Smith is chair of the Presque Isle City Council; Presque Isle, the largest town in the district, makes up roughly 25 percent of District 2. Long, a current state representative for House District 145, was elected to the House in 2010.[11]
State Senate District 6- General election
| A Republican state representative and a Democratic candidate competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent. |
Joyce Maker (R) defeated Rock Alley (D) in the general election.
Incumbent David C. Burns (R) declined to run for re-election. Rock Alley was unopposed in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Joyce Maker defeated William Howard in the Republican primary. This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »
State Senate District 7- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. Brian Langley (R) defeated challenger Moira O'Neill (D) in the general election. Langley was was unopposed in the Republican primary. Former state Rep. Theodore Koffman (D) was defeated by Moira O'Neill (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Langley faced O'Neill in November.
Langley defeated Koffman in 2014 by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. Langley won his seat more narrowly in 2012 by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.
According to an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, District 7 "is one of the most Democratic state senate districts in Maine held by a Republican." The district voted 58 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012. The analysis rated the race a toss-up given the closeness of the 2012 contest and an increase in Koffman's name recognition within the district.[11]
State Senate District 11- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. Michael Thibodeau (R), the state senate majority leader, defeated Jonathan Fulford (D) in November.
The race was a rematch between Thibodeau and Fulford. Thibodeau narrowly won re-election in 2014 against Fulford by a margin of 48.8 percent to 48.1 percent—135 votes out of 18,667 votes cast. The 2014 election was also considered a worse political climate for Democrats than Republicans.
In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 11 race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 54 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[11]
State Senate District 13- General election
| The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. Chris Johnson (D) was defeated by former state Rep. Dana Dow (R).
Johnson won his seat in a February 2012 against Dow by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent, a win that was considered a significant upset. Johnson narrowly won re-election in November 2012 against Leslie Fossel (R) by a margin of 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent. Johnson defeated Fossel by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent in a similarly close election in November 2014.
In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 13 race slightly favored Democrats but was close to a toss-up.[11]
State Senate District 16- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. Scott Cyrway (R) won re-election in the November 2016 general election. He faced state Rep. Henry Murphy Beck (D).
Cyrway defeated former incumbent Rep. Colleen Lachowicz (D) in 2014 by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent.
In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 16 race was considered a toss-up.[11]
State Senate District 23- General election
| The Republican candidate that defeated the incumbent faced a former state representative in a closely divided district. |
The Republican incumbent faced a conservative challenger.
Along with the District 23 primary election, the State Senate District 23 general election was a race to watch.
Eloise Vitelli (D) defeated Guy Lebida (R) in the November 2016 general election.
Incumbent state Sen. Linda Baker (R) ran for re-election. She lost to Guy Lebida (R) in the Republican primary contest. Former state Rep. Eloise Vitelli (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Baker defeated Vitelli in 2014 by a margin of 45 percent to 40 percent; Green Party candidate Alice Knapp garnered 11 percent of the vote. No third party candidate was on the ballot in 2016, potentially benefiting Vitelli in November.
Lebida, the vice chairman of the Sagadahoc County Republican Committee, distinguished himself as the more conservative candidate, citing his opposition to Baker's vote in favor of providing state assistance to asylum seekers and Lebida's support for the entire state party's platform, which includes local control of public education, fiscal conservatism, and right-to-work laws, among other issues.[12]
In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 23 general election race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 57 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[11]
State Senate District 33- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Sen. David Woodsome (R) ran for re-election. He defeated former state Rep. Andrea Boland (D) in the November 2016 general election.
Boland came close to ousting former incumbent Rep. John Tuttle (D) in the 2014 Democratic primary contest. Tuttle defeated Boland by just 22 votes out of 1,666 votes cast. Woodsome went on to defeat Tuttle in the 2014 general election by a margin of 57 percent to 39 percent.
In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 33 general election race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 55 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[11]
State House District 3- General election
| The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Lydia Blume (D) defeated Peter Mantell (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Blume defeated Arthur Kyricos (R) by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.
State House District 4- General election
| District 4 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Patricia Hymanson (D) defeated Bradley Moulton (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Hymanson defeated Moulton by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.
State House District 5- General election
| District 5 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Beth O'Connor (R) defeated former state Rep. Joshua Plante (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, O'Connor defeated Plante, the former incumbent, by a margin of 53 percent to 45 percent.
State House District 7- General election
| District 7 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Robert Foley (R) defeated Joachim Howard (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Foley defeated Howard by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent.
State House District 9- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Stedman Seavey (R) defeated Diane Denk (D) in the November 2016 general election. Denk defeated Laurie Dobson (D) in the Democratic primary.
In 2014, Seavey defeated Denk by a margin of 50 percent to 47 percent.
State House District 19- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Matthew Harrington (R) defeated Nalbert Tero (D) in the November 2016 general election.
Harrington won the seat in a special election held on November 3, 2015, where he won with 47 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for his Democratic opponent.
State House District 33- General election
| The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Kevin Battle (R) defeated Brad Fox (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Battle defeated Rosemarie De Angelis (D) by a margin of 44 percent to 42 percent; Green Party candidate Andrew Reddy received 10 percent of the vote.
State House District 44- General election
| The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Teresa Pierce (D) defeated Erin Mancini (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Pierce defeated Gregory Payeur (R) by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.
State House District 45- General election
| District 45 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Michael Timmons (R) lost his bid for re-election to Dale Denno (D) in the November 2016 general election.
The 2016 general election was a rematch between Timmons and Denno. In 2014, Timmons defeated Denno by a margin of 47.6 percent to 47.3 percent.
State House District 64- General election
| The Republican incumbent retired, leaving an open seat in a closely divided district. |
Bettyann Sheats (D) defeated Michael Travers (R) in the November 2016 general election for State House District 64.[13]
Incumbent state Rep. David Sawicki (R) withdrew his bid for re-election after the Republican primary.[14]
State House District 68- General election
| The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district. |
Incumbent state Rep. Christine Powers (D) was defeated by Richard Cebra (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Powers defeated John Nostin (R) by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.
State House District 70- General election
| District 70 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Nathan Wadsworth (R) defeated former state Rep. Helen Rankin (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Wadsworth defeated Rankin, the former incumbent, by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent.
State House District 106- General election
| District 106 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Stanley Short (D) was defeated by Scott Strom (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Short defeated Strom by a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent.
State House District 111- General election
| District 111 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Bradlee Farrin (R) defeated former state Rep. Ann Dorney (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Farrin defeated Dorney, the former incumbent, by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent.
State House District 114- General election
| District 114 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Russell Black (R) defeated Guy Iverson (D) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Black defeated Iverson by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.
State House District 125- General election
| District 125 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. Victoria Kornfield (D) defeated Gary Capehart (R) in the November 2016 general election.
In 2014, Kornfield defeated Capehart by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent.
State House District 126- General election
| District 126 featured a candidate rematch. |
Incumbent state Rep. John Schneck (D) defeated former state Rep. Douglas Damon (R) in the November general election.
This is the third contest between Schneck and Damon, the former incumbent. In 2012, Schneck unseated Damon by a margin of 59 percent to 41 percent. In 2014, Schneck defeated Damon by a margin of 53 percent to 41 percent.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Maine State Senate elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Maine," accessed February 11, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Portland Press Herald, "Democrats have big fundraising lead in Maine legislative races," accessed August 22, 2016
- ↑ Bangor Daily News, "More than $500,000 pours into Maine’s 2016 legislative races," October 15, 2015
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Follow the Money, "Election Overview: Maine 2014 elections," accessed August 24, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginless - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ 10.0 10.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 Daily Kos, "Analysis of 2016 State Senate Elections in Maine," March 25, 2016
- ↑ Lincoln County News, "Bowdoin Businessman Challenges Republican Senator in Primary," March 30, 2016
- ↑ New York Times, "Maine 64th District," accessed November 12, 2016
- ↑ Maine Secretary of State, "Withdraw and Replace," accessed November 12, 2016
