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State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Kentucky

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2016 Elections
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about Kentucky legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

Kentucky

Kentucky House
Flag of Kentucky.png
2016 Election
Seats up: 100 out of 100
Margin of control: 6
% Margin of control: 6.0%
Pre-election control: Democratic Party
Presidential election
2012: Republican Party Mitt Romney
2008: Republican Party Sen. John McCain
Republicans flipped the state House, securing a state government trifecta in Kentucky.
Main article: 2016 House elections

The Kentucky House of Representatives had been held by the Democratic Party since 1921. The lower house of the Kentucky State Legislature was the last state legislative chamber in the South to be controlled by Democrats.[1]

House

Republican trifecta at stake

Heading into the general election, Kentucky was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. That changed when Republicans took control of the House in the 2016 election, securing a GOP trifecta in Kentucky.

Democrats controlled the Kentucky House by 6 seats. The Kentucky House was one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a battleground in 2014, but the partisan balance did not change.[2] In 2016, however, Republicans flipped the chamber by picking up 17 seats.

Partisan balance of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Election year Seats Margin of control % Margin of control # of Competitive districts Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 100 18 seats 18% 14 Electiondot.png Democratic Electiondot.png Democratic
2014 100 8 seats 8% 4 Electiondot.png Democratic Electiondot.png Democratic
2016 100 6 seats 6% 4 Electiondot.png Democratic Ends.png Republican

Battleground context

The Kentucky House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target for 2016.[3] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 3, House District 20, and House District 99 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[4][5]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 8, House District 38, and House District 46 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7]

In an effort to regain control of the chamber, Republicans fielded candidates in 91 of the 100 House districts. Rep. Jonathan Shell (R), the House GOP campaign chairman, said that "House Republicans accomplished our recruitment goals for 2016. We have candidates in every corner of the state, in nearly every district. We have inspiring candidates who will bring a new majority to the people’s House and who will govern this state the way Kentuckians deserve."[8]

Scott Jennings, a political operative who advised Republican candidates, said on Kentucky Democrats that, "The state of the Democratic Party is a crisis. It’s an emergency." The Democratic Party had been losing ground in Kentucky since the 2015 general election. In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin defeated Democrat Jack Conway by nine percentage points for the governorship. Bevin was only the second Republican governor of Kentucky in four decades. Republicans also took control of the state auditor and treasurer office, and Rep. Denny Butler and Rep. Jim Gooch, Jr. switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican.[9] In a 2015 special election, Republicans also flipped District 27 in the Kentucky Senate. Steve West (R) won the seat by almost 9 percentage points and Romney won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 24 percentage points.

As of June 30, 2016, the Kentucky Democratic Party had only $72,650 on hand, while the Kentucky GOP had $1.6 million on hand. Democrats spent heavily in the March 8, 2016, special elections to increase their House majority.[10]

2016 special elections

Before the general election in November, Republicans targeted four state House special elections on March 8, 2016, which were previously held by two Democrats and two Republicans.

In three of the four special elections, Republicans had "a collective 3-to-1 cash advantage on their Democratic opponents."[11] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) planned "a six-figure, multi-platform ad campaign" that tied the four Democratic candidates to President Barack Obama.[12] RSLC President Matt Walter said on the House special elections that, "Democrats don’t seem to have a clue. They lost important races last November after running out-of-touch candidates determined to implement Obama’s policies in Kentucky. They’ve since lost two state House representatives who switched to the Republican Party because of the Democrats’ commitment to the president’s failed agenda. And now they are trying the same play again by running four House candidates in the upcoming special elections who will be strong allies to the president and his extreme positions."[12]

Results: Republicans retained one seat in the special elections but lost District 62. Democrats increased their lead to a 53-47 majority in the House.

Competitiveness

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [13]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [14]
  • By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
  • House districts: 9 out of 100 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
  • Five of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Democrats. Four districts were considered mildly competitive.[15]

Races we watched

State House District 3

The Democratic incumbent defended his seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Gerald Watkins (D) faced Joni Hogancamp (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. In 2014, Watkins won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 7.2 percent.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State House District 8

The Democratic incumbent who won in a 2016 special election again faced his 2016 GOP opponent.

Incumbent Jeff Taylor (D) faced Walker Thomas (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. Taylor was elected to the seat in a special election on March 8, 2016. He defeated Walker Thomas in the special election by 19 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 20

The Democratic incumbent defended her seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Jody Richards (D) faced Melinda Hill (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State House District 23 (general)

Republicans seek to re-capture an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

Along with the District 23 primary contest, the district's general election is a race to watch. Danny J. Basil (D) faced Steve Riley (R) in November.

According to CN|2, a Kentucky television station that covers state politics, "The district has become a target for the GOP to flip in recent election cycles." Bell, the outgoing incumbent, defeated his Republican challenger by nine percentage points in 2014. A total of 13,814 votes were cast.[16]

State House District 38

An incumbent who switched party affiliation from Democratic to GOP is running for re-election.

Incumbent state Rep. Denver "Denny" Butler (R) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Republican primary contest.

Butler changed his party affiliation from Democratic to Republican in November 2015. The race is closely watched due to the already slim Democratic majority in the state House after Butler's affiliation switch. Butler faced McKenzie Cantrell (D) in November.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 46

Democrats defended the seat held by the outgoing Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent Lawrence Clark (D) did not seek re-election. Alan Gentry defeated Allen Schuler in the Democratic primary. Eric Crump defeated Bill Dudley in the Republican primary. Gentry defeated Crump in the general election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 50

Republicans defend the seat held by the outgoing Republican incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. David Floyd (R) declined to run for re-election. James DeWeese (D) faced Chad McCoy (R) in November.

Republicans sought to overtake the narrow Democratic majority in the state House and defend their current seats. Floyd, the outgoing incumbent, won the district in 2014 and 2012 by about seven percentage points in both years.

State House District 70

Two Republicans and one Democrat seek the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. Mitchel Denham Jr. (D) declined to run for re-election. John Sims Jr. (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary contest and faced John VanMeter (R) in November.

The outgoing Democratic incumbent won in 2014, 2012, 2010, and 2008 as an unopposed candidate. The party competition during the general election may have an effect on the race's outcome, as Republicans seek to retake the state House from the narrow Democratic majority.

State House District 78

The general election features a rematch between the incumbent and his 2014 Republican challenger.

Incumbent state Rep. Thomas McKee (D) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Democratic primary. He faced Mark Hart (R), his Republican challenger in 2014, in the November 2016 election.

McKee defeated Hart by a margin of 54 to 46 percent in 2014. A total of 12,069 votes were cast.

State House District 91

A Democratic incumbent who won in 2014 by just 14 votes again faces his 2014 GOP opponent.

Incumbent state Rep. Cluster Howard (D) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Howard faces Toby Herald (R), the former Republican incumbent and 2014 opponent, in the general election.

The race was a rematch between Howard, the current incumbent, and Herald, the former incumbent. Howard defeated Herald in 2014 by just 14 votes. The general election race in 2016 (a presidential year) was predicted to be as close as it was in 2014 (a midterm election year).

State House District 94

An open seat left by the Democratic incumbent features party competition for the first time since 2010.

Outgoing state Rep. Leslie Combs (D), who was unopposed in 2014 and 2012, declined to run for re-election, leaving an open seat. Frank Justice II (R) faces Angie Hatton (D) in November.


Along with the District 94 primary contest, the district's general election was a race to watch as Republicans seek to retake the seat from the Democrats.

State House District 99

The Democratic incumbent defended his seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Rocky Adkins (D) faced Wendy Fletcher (R) in the general election. Adkins was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Fletcher defeated Randy Smith in the Republican primary.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Courier-Journal, "Rep. Jim Gooch latest Democrat to switch to GOP," accessed February 11, 2016
  2. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named seats
  3. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rslc
  4. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
  5. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
  6. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  8. ↑ Lexington Herald Leader, "Republicans field candidates in 91 of 100 House elections," accessed February 18, 2016
  9. ↑ WFPL News, "State Rep. Butler of Louisville Switches To Republican Party," accessed November 19, 2015
  10. ↑ Courier-Journal, "Ky Democrats lag far behind GOP in money," accessed August 4, 2016
  11. ↑ mycn2.com, "GOP holds financial advantages in special House elections less than a month before voters hit the polls," accessed February 18, 2016
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Republican State Leadership Committee, "National GOP group pours money into special House races," accessed February 18, 2016
  13. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginless
  14. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginmore
  15. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
  16. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named CN
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