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State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Colorado

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2016 Elections
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about Colorado legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

Colorado

Colorado Legislature
Flag of Colorado.png
State Senate
Seats up: 18 out of 35
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 2.9%
Pre-election control: Republican Party
State House
Seats up: 65 out of 65
Margin of control: 3
% Margin of control: 4.6%
Pre-election control: Democratic Party
Presidential election
2012: Democratic Party President Obama
2008: Democratic Party President Obama
Partisan balance in the Colorado State Senate remained the same. Democrats picked up three seats in the state House.
Main articles: Colorado State Senate elections, 2016 and Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2016

Before the Republican Party took control of the Colorado State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2004. The Democratic Party regained control of the state House in 2012. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the state House for seven years, while the Republican Party was the majority for the other 15 years.

Since the creation of the Colorado State Legislature in 1876, the Republican Party has held the majority in both chambers for the greatest amount of time. Republicans have controlled the Senate for 96 years and the House for 94 years. Democrats have controlled the Senate for 44 years and the House for 42 years.

Heading into the general election, Colorado was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Senate

The Colorado Senate had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of just one seat, amounting to about 2.9 percent of the chamber. In 2014, Democrats controlled the Senate by the same margin.

Partisan balance of the Colorado State Senate
Election year Seats Seats up Margin of control % Margin of control Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 35 20 5 14.28% Democratic Party Democratic Party
2014 35 18 1 2.9% Democratic Party Republican Party
2016 35 18 1 2.9% Republican Party Republican Party

House

The Colorado House had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of three seats, or 4.6 percent of the chamber. In 2014, a year which saw Republicans cut into the Democrats' lead by three seats, 18 districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive.

Partisan balance of the Colorado House of Representatives
Election year Seats Margin of control % Margin of control Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 65 1 1.53% Republican Party Democratic Party
2014 65 9 13.84% Democratic Party Democratic Party
2016 65 3 4.61% Democratic Party Democratic Party

Battleground context

The Colorado State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target, while the Colorado House of Representatives had been identified by RLCC as an offensive target.[1] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

Watch Ballotpedia's webinar on state battlegrounds and the 2016 elections

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 26, House District 3, and House District 31 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[2][3][4]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 3, House District 30, and Senate District 19 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]

Daily Kos Elections identified the Colorado Senate as "perhaps the most competitive state legislative chamber in the nation this year." It noted that District 19, located in suburban Denver and held by Republican Laura J. Woods, sided with defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by half a percentage point and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper by five points. Also, District 25, which was held by Democrat Mary Hodge, voted for Udall's opponent Cory Gardner and Hickenlooper's opponent Bob Beauprez in 2014, but sided with Obama by seven points in 2012.[7]

Major issues in Colorado, including education funding, marijuana legislation, and fracking, each played a role in the 2016 election. For instance, since 2010, Colorado's state budget had made use of the "negative factor," which is a strategic maneuver that allows the state to pay less than agreed upon in education funding under the promise that it will be paid back. Democrats proposed budgets designed to quickly pay down the negative factor. Coupled with general education spending increases for 2016, Colorado lawmakers could have potentially prescribed a record-breaking high for the state's education budget. [8]

In June 2016, the Marijuana Policy Project, an organization dedicated to promoting the legalization and regulation of marijuana, released a statement praising Colorado's government for passing several bills it supported and defeating a bill that went against its mission.[9]

Fracking, already a controversial issue in many states, saw drama in Colorado especially. A pair of fracking bans made at the local level were overturned by the state's Supreme Court in the first half of 2016, which argued that the state's power to regulate fracking supersedes that of local governments.[10]

Competitiveness

In the previous two presidential elections, President Obama won Colorado. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 4 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [11]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [12]
  • By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

By using Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria with the 2012 presidential election results by state Senate districts, we can see that 14 out of 35 districts were competitive. Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Nine districts were considered mildly competitive.[13] By comparing the 2012 presidential election results with state House districts, we can see that 8 out of 65 districts were competitive. Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Four districts were considered mildly competitive.[13]

Races we watched

State Senate District 19

District 19 featured a candidate rematch in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Laura Woods (R) ran for re-election. She faced former state Sen. Rachel Zenzinger (D) in November.

In 2014, Woods narrowly defeated Zenzinger, the former incumbent, by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State Senate District 25

District 25 featured an open seat in a swing district.

Incumbent state Sen. Mary Hodge (D) did not run for re-election due to term limits. Former state Rep. Kevin Priola (R) defeated former state Rep. Jenise May (D) in November.

According to the Colorado Independent, Republicans focused on picking up the District 25 seat due to the uncertainty involving the re-election of state Sen. Laura Woods (R), a conservative Republican in District 19.[14]

State Senate District 26

District 26 featured an open seat in a swing district.

Incumbent state Sen. Linda Newell (D) did not run for re-election due to term limits. State Rep. Daniel Kagan (D) defeated Nancy Doty (R) in November.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »


State House District 3

A Democrat and a Republican ran for this open seat.

Incumbent state Rep. Daniel Kagan (D) did not run for re-election. Jeff Bridges (D) defeated Katy Brown (R) in November.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State House District 30

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.

Incumbent state Rep. JoAnn Windholz (R) ran for re-election. She was defeated by Dafna Michaelson Jenet (D) in November.

In 2014, Windholz narrowly defeated Jenise May (D), the former incumbent, by a margin of 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.

According to the Colorado Independent, the district was one of two races that could determine which party controlled the state House after the general election (District 31 was the other notable race).[14]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 31

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.

Incumbent state Rep. Joe Salazar (D) ran for re-election. He defeated Jessica Sandgren (R) in November.

In 2014, Salazar narrowly defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.

According to the Colorado Independent, the district was one of two races that could determine which party controlled the state House after the general election (District 30 was the other notable race).[14]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rslc
  2. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
  3. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Releases Second Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'” accessed October 5, 2016
  4. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
  5. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  6. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Can Bernie Sanders help these candidates win their own primaries?" January 20, 2016
  8. ↑ The Denver Post, "Colorado voters may face record level of Colorado school funding measures in November," accessed August 19, 2016
  9. ↑ Marijuana Policy Project, "Colorado," accessed August 19, 2016
  10. ↑ The Denver Post, "Colorado Supreme Court rules state law trumps local bans on fracking," accessed August 19, 2016
  11. ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive.
  12. ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named dailykos
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Colorado Independent, "Is Adams County the new bellwether for Colorado politics?" March 30, 2016
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