State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Nevada
| 2016 State Legislative Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Part 1: Overview | |
| Part 2: Battlegrounds | |
| Part 3: Competitiveness | |
| Impact of term limits | |
| Part 4: Elections by state | |
| Election dates | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.
This page details battleground information about Nevada legislative elections.
What made our list
Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:
Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »
Nevada
| Nevada Senate | |
|---|---|
 |
| 2016 Election |
| Seats up: 11 out of 21 |
| Margin of control: 1 |
| % Margin of control: 4.8% |
Pre-election control:  |
| Presidential election |
2012:  President Obama |
| 2008: President Obama |
- Democrats flipped both chambers of the Nevada Legislature. Notably, Democrats picked up 10 seats in the state Assembly.
Heading into the general election, Nevada was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. All three areas of the Nevada state government—the state Assembly, the state Senate, and the office of the governor—were controlled by the Republican Party.
The state Senate was most at risk of flipping to Democratic control. Democrats also saw an opportunity to take control of the state Assembly.
Before the Republican Party took control of the Nevada State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2008. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the state Senate for the last six years, while Republicans were the majority for the first 16 years.[1]
Senate
- Main article: 2016 Senate elections
Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, which amounted to 4.8 percent of the chamber. Senate Democrats held 11 seats heading into the 2014 general election but emerged with only 10. The Republicans saw the reverse occur, increasing their seats from 10 to 11.[2]
| Partisan balance of the Nevada state Senate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election year | Seats | Seats up | Margin of control | % Margin of control | Pre-election control | Post-election control |
| 2012 | 21 | 12 seats | 1 | 4.8% |  Democratic |
Democratic
|
| 2014 | 21 | 11 seats | 1 | 4.8% | Democratic |
 Republican
|
| 2016 | 21 | 11 seats | 1 | 4.8% | Republican |
Democratic
|
Battleground context
The Nevada State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target.[3] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 25 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 15 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
As of June 10, 2016, the Senate Democratic Caucus raised $249,207, while the Republican Caucus raised $99,500.[7][8]
The $1.4 billion tax package and education initiatives passed by the Republican-led legislature in the last legislative session were among the top issues for Nevada voters.[9]
In 2016, voter turnout was expected to be high not only because of the presidential election, but also due to the open seat left by outgoing U.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D).[10]
In 2014, the Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as a battleground chamber, ultimately flipping to Republican control. Even with eight overall retirements due to term limits, the state Assembly unexpectedly showed a much larger flip, changing from a 27-15 Democratic majority to a 27-15 Republican majority. This prompted the Assembly Democratic Caucus to raise nearly $350,000 in 2015; in comparison, the Assembly Republican Caucus raised nearly $24,000. In the Senate, the Democratic Caucus raised over $270,000; the Republican Caucus raised about $84,000. Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson (R) told the Nevada Appeal that he anticipated being outraised due to ideological differences between incumbents and donors as well as a lack of contributions to the caucus fund by outgoing or defeated Republicans; he said that the numbers do not foreshadow the outcome of the elections.[11]
Sen. Aaron Ford (D), leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, said on the 2014 election that "[t]he turnout in 2014 was less of a red wave and more of a blue boycott. I think there has been a lot of introspection that has taken place since then. We plan to capitalize on the enthusiasm we already see out there in the Democratic arena to ensure we regain the majority."[12] Ford went on to explain that Democrats were targeting District 6, District 15, and District 18 in the state Senate. The Republican caucus was focusing on District 5 and District 6. Sen. Ben Kieckhefer (R) believed that Republicans would be able to hold on to the state Senate. Kieckhefer said, "We need to win one of them to hold the majority and we’re pretty confident we are going to be able to do that."[12]
Competitiveness
In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Nevada. He won the state in 2008 by 12 points and in 2012 by 6 points.
| Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria |
| Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [13] |
| Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [14] |
- By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.
- Senate districts: 7 out of 21 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.
- Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Three districts were considered mildly competitive.[15]
Races we watched
State Senate District 5 - General election
| District 5 featured a closely divided race between Republicans and Democrats. |
Incumbent state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse (D) ran for re-election. She defeated Nicholas Lash (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Carrie Buck (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary. Tim Hagan (Lib.) was the lone Libertarian candidate.
According to Daily Kos, Republicans targeted Woodhouse's seat as a potential Republican pick-up in November. In 2012, Woodhouse defeated her Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 46 percent.[16]
State Senate District 6 - General election
| A Republican representative and a Democrat faced off for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Mark Lipparelli (R) declined to run for re-election. State Rep. Erv Nelson (R) lost to state Rep. Victoria Seaman (R) in the Republican primary contest. Nicole Cannizzaro (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.
According to KTNV Channel 13 News, "This race [District 6] is arguably the best litmus test for how Republican primary voters will treat the legislators who took the risk of voting for a tax increase."[17]
The tax increase referred to a bill that will raise and extend $1.4 billion in taxes primarily to fund K-12 education in the state, which was passed by the legislature and signed by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R). Taxes were a major issue in the Republican primary contests. Republicans who voted in favor of the plan received strong criticism from more conservative Republicans, many of whom challenged those incumbents in primaries.
Nelson received the support of the Senate Republican Caucus. A social conservative, Nelson supported a failed bill that would have added religious freedom protections for private businesses similar to Indiana's Religious Freedom Restoration Act. Nelson also voted in favor of the $1.4 billion tax plan while his opponent, Victoria Seaman, voted against it.[17]
District 6 was also a closely divided district in 2016. Lipparelli was appointed to the chamber in 2014 to fill the vacancy left by then-Sen. Mark Hutchison (R), who became lieutenant governor. In 2012, Hutchison defeated his Democratic opponent in District 6 by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent—901 votes out of 54,097 votes cast. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
State Senate District 15 - General election
| A Republican, a Democrat, and a Libertarian competed for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent. |
Incumbent state Sen. Greg Brower (R) declined to run for re-election after accepting a job in Washington, D.C. Heidi Gansert (R) defeated Eugene Hoover (R) in the Republican primary contest. Devon Reese (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. David Colborne (Lib.) was the sole Libertarian candidate.
Gansert, a former chief of staff to Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), received support from Senate Republican leadership, according to KTNV Channel 13 News.[17]
In September 2015, Gansert was criticized for refusing to say whether or not she supported the $1.4 billion tax bill that was signed by Gov. Sandoval, Gansert's former boss. On September 17, 2015, Gansert clarified that she supported Sandoval's agenda and would not vote to repeal the tax bill if elected. Hoover, Gansert's opponent and chairman of a PAC affiliated with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, testified against the bill in the legislature in early 2016.[17][18][19]
District 15 was also a closely divided district in 2016. In 2012, Brower defeated his Democratic opponent by a margin of 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent—266 votes out of 58,438 votes cast. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent.
State Senate District 18 - General election
| A Democratic candidate challenged the GOP incumbent. |
Sen. Scott Hammond (R) faced Alexander Marks (D) in the general election.
In District 18, Republicans had a voter registration edge over Democrats in 2016, but there were also a large number of nonpartisan voters.[20] In 2012, Hammond defeated Kelli Ross (D) by a margin of victory of 2 percent.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2016
- State executive official elections, 2016
- 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- State government trifectas
Footnotes
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Nevada," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ Ballotpedia, "Nevada State Senate elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Democrats," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Republicans," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Fight for majority in Nevada Legislature coming into focus," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Governing, "The 8 States to Watch in 2016," accessed January 16, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Appeal, "Democrats rev up fundraising in fight to control Nevada Legislature," January 21, 2016
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Las Vegas Review Journal, "Democrats could retake Nevada Senate, Assembly this year," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginless - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedmarginmore - ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs nameddailykos - ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Can Democrats retake the Nevada Senate? These three seats will decide it all," accessed February 12, 2016
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 KTNV, "Ten important Nevada Primary races to watch in 2016," March 23, 2016
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Nevada GOP Senate hopeful Gansert attracts primary challenge," October 15, 2015
- ↑ Ralston Reports, "Gansert's silence on tax increase is bizarre, ridiculous and unsustainable," September 17, 2015
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Democrats back candidate to challenge GOP Sen. Scott Hammond," accessed September 12, 2016
