State legislative battleground chambers, 2016: Iowa

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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers to particularly keep an eye on. These are the chambers where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control.

This page details battleground information about Iowa legislative elections.

What made our list

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers are:

Click here for information on all 13 battleground states »

Iowa

Iowa Legislature
Flag of Iowa.png
State Senate
Seats up: 25 out of 50
Margin of control: 2
% Margin of control: 4.0%
Pre-election control: Democratic Party
State House
Seats up: 100 out of 100
Margin of control: 14
% Margin of control: 14.0%
Pre-election control: Republican Party
Presidential election
2012: Democratic Party President Obama
2008: Democratic Party President Obama
Republicans flipped the state Senate, gaining a state government trifecta.
Main articles: Iowa State Senate elections, 2016 and Iowa House of Representatives elections, 2016

Before the Democratic Party took control of the Iowa State Senate in the 2006 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 1996. The Republican Party had held the state House since 2010. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Iowa House of Representatives for five years while the Republicans were the majority for 17 years.[1]

Heading into the general election, Iowa was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Senate

The Iowa Senate had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of two seats, which amounted to 4 percent of the chamber. In 2014, when the chamber's 25 odd-numbered seats were up for election; four districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. Ultimately, no change in partisan balance occurred. In 2012, the last election cycle in which the 25 even-numbered seats were up for election, 12 districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. Likewise, no change in partisan balance resulted from these elections.

Partisan balance of the Iowa state Senate
Election year Seats Seats up Margin of control % Margin of control # of Competitive districts Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 50 26 2 4.0% - Democratic Party Democratic Party
2014 50 25 2 4.0% 4 Democratic Party Democratic Party
2016 50 25 2 4.0% 4 Democratic Party Republican Party

House

The Iowa House, which elects all of its 100 members every two years, told a different story. Republicans won the House in the 2010 elections, lost six seats in 2012, and then won four back in 2014. Prior to the 2016 election there was a difference in partisan balance of four seats, or four percent of the chamber. Seventeen seats up for election in 2014 were considered competitive or mildly competitive.

Partisan balance of the Iowa House of Representatives
Election year Seats Margin of control % Margin of control # of Competitive districts Pre-election control Post-election control
2012 100 20 20% - Republican Party Republican Party
2014 100 6 6.0% 17 Republican Party Republican Party
2016 100 14 14.0% 4 Republican Party Republican Party

Battleground context

The Iowa State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. Republicans being able to take control of the Senate while maintaining control of the House secured a trifecta in the state of Iowa. There were six Democratic districts targeted by Republican challengers.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 30 and Senate District 34 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[3][4]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 55, Senate District 28, and Senate District 46 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]

Competitiveness

In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Iowa. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 6 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria
Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [7]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [8]

By using Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria with the 2012 presidential election results by state Senate districts, we can see that 25 out of 50 districts were competitive. Six of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Republicans except one. Nineteen districts were considered mildly competitive.[9]

By comparing the 2012 presidential election results with state House districts, we can see that 39 out of 100 districts were competitive. Twenty-two of those districts were highly competitive and the majority of the seats in those districts were held by Republicans. Seventeen districts were considered mildly competitive.[9]

Races we watched

State Senate District 26

The Democratic assistant senate majority leader faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

State Senate Assistant Majority Leader Mary Jo Wilhelm (D) ran for re-election. Waylon Brown (R) defeated Wilhelm in November.

The District 26 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Wilhelm won close races in 2008 and 2012. Wilhelm defeated incumbent state Sen. Mark Zieman (R) in 2008 by just 1,026 votes out of 27,698 votes cast. Due to redistricting, in 2012 Wilhelm faced incumbent state Sen. Merlin Bartz, whom she defeated by just 126 votes out of 30,934 votes cast.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 26 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 11,116 Democrats, 11,556 Republicans, and 16,407 with no party identification.[10]

State Senate District 28

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic and a Libertarian in a closely divided district.

Incumbent Michael Breitbach (R) defeated Jan Heikes (D) and Troy Hageman (L) in the general election. Breitbach was elected to the seat in 2012 by a margin of victory of 0.2 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State Senate District 30

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Jeff Danielson (D) ran for re-election. Danielson defeated Bonnie Sadler (R) in November.

The District 30 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Danielson won close races in 2008 and 2012. Danielson defeated challenger Walt Rogers (R) by just 22 votes out of 32,184 votes cast in 2008—the narrowest margin that year. Danielson defeated challenger Matt Resisetter (R) by just 681 votes out of 33,211 votes cast in 2012.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 30 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,247 Democrats, 12,652 Republicans, and 14,231 with no party identification.[10]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State Senate District 32

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Brian Schoenjahn (D) ran for re-election. Craig Johnson (R) defeated Schoenjahn in November.

The District 32 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Schoenjahn won in 2012 with 50.6 percent of the vote, compared to 53 percent in 2004 and 63 percent in 2008.[11]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 32 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 10,172 Democrats, 11,301 Republicans, and 16,889 with no party identification.[10]

State Senate District 34

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Liz Mathis (D) ran for re-election. Mathis defeated Rene Gadelha (R) in November.

The District 34 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Mathis won a special election in 2011 and won with almost 60 percent of the vote in 2012. Despite Mathis' previous wins, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said the district is a target for Republicans.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 34 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,681 Democrats, 13,456 Republicans, and 14,920 with no party identification.[10]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State Senate District 36

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Steve Sodders (D) ran for re-election. Jeff Edler (R) defeated Sodders in November.

The District 36 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Sodders won in 2008 and in 2012 with roughly 53 percent of the vote both years.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 36 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,681 Democrats, 13,456 Republicans, and 14,920 with no party identification.[10]

State Senate District 46

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Chris Brase (D) ran for re-election. Mark Lofgren (R) defeated Brase in November.

The District 46 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[10]

Brase won in 2012 with 51.2 percent of the vote.[12]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 46 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 11,528 Democrats, 12,072 Republicans, and 15,083 with no party identification.[10]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »


State House District 15

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger.

Incumbent state Rep. Charlie McConkey (D) ran for re-election. McConkey defeated Bill Riley (R) in November.

McConkey won by just 75 votes out of 6,603 votes cast in 2014.

State House District 30

District 30 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Zach Nunn (R) ran for re-election. Nunn defeated former incumbent Rep. Joe Riding (D) in November.

Nunn defeated Riding by a margin of 56 percent to 43 percent in 2014.

State House District 51

District 51 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Josh Byrnes (R) declined to run for re-election. Jane Bloomingdale (R) defeated Tim Hejhal (D) in November.

The district was closely divided. Barack Obama (D) won the district in 2012, while active registered Republicans outnumbered active registered Democrats. Active voter registrations in the district included 5,136 Democrats, 6,237 Republicans, and 7,855 with no party identification.[10]

State House District 55 (general)

District 55 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Along with the District 55 general election race, the District 55 primary race was a race to watch.

Incumbent state Rep. Darrel Branhagen (R) declined to run for re-election. Pat Ritter (D) defeated Steve McCargar (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Michael Bergan (R) defeated Alex Popenhagen (R) in the Republican primary contest. Bergan defeated Ritter in the general election.

Democrats sought to flip District 55, which was a closely divided district. Before Branhagen took office in 2014, the seat was held by Rep. Roger Thomas (D), who served eight terms. The district also supported Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[10]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 55 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 5,539 Democrats, 6,568 Republicans, and 6,499 with no party identification.[10]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 58

District 58 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Brian Moore (R) declined to run for re-election. Andy McKean defeated Joshua Sundstrom and Allen Ernst in the Republican primary. Peter Hird (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hird dropped out of the race following the Democratic primary and was replaced by Jessica Kean. McKean defeated Kean in the general election.

According to The Des Moines Register, District 58 "may be the best opportunity for Democrats to snag a House seat held by a Republican." Active voter registrations in District 58 also favored Democrats. Active voter registrations in the district included 7,009 Democrats, 5,037 Republicans, and 8,596 with no party identification.[10]

State House District 67

The Democratic candidate who ran a close race in 2012 sought the seat in 2016.

Incumbent state Rep. Kraig Paulsen (R) declined to run for re-election. Mark Seidl (D), who challenged Paulsen in 2014, was defeated by Ashley Hinson (R) in November.

Paulsen defeated Seidl in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent out of 15,845 votes cast. Paulsen was unchallenged in 2014.

State House District 95

District 95 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Quentin Stanerson (R) declined to run for re-election. Louis Zumbach (R) defeated Richard Whitehead (D) in November.

The district was closely divided. Stanerson defeated Kristin Keast (D) in 2012 by just 200 votes but won re-election in 2014 against Keast with 55 percent of the vote. The district supported Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[10]

Registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by only 167 votes. Active voter registrations in the district included 6,273 Democrats, 6,440 Republicans, and 7,697 with no party identification.[10]


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Iowa," accessed January 21, 2016
  2. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rslc
  3. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
  4. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
  5. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
  6. ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
  7. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginless
  8. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named marginmore
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
  10. ↑ 10.00 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 10.11 10.12 10.13 10.14 10.15 10.16 10.17 Des Moines Register, "GOP Eyes Taking Control of Iowa Senate," March 21, 2016
  11. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "State Senator District 32 Results," accessed May 17, 2016
  12. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "State Senator District 46 Results," accessed May 17, 2016
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