Your feedback ensures we stay focused on the facts that matter to you most—take our survey.
Election results, 2018: State legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes
| 2018 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
One-hundred and five of the 6,073 state legislative races in 2018 were decided by fewer than 100 votes. Ninety-eight of the 105 races were in state house chambers, rather than state senate chambers. Click here to see a list of all the races.
Partisan control changed in 54 of the 105 races. Thirty-six of the partisan changes (34.3 percent of the 105 races) were to Democrats, and 18 (17.1 percent) were to Republicans. Of the 51 seats that did not change partisan control, Democrats held 15 (14.3 percent) and Republicans held 36 (34.3 percent).
The New Hampshire House of Representatives had 34 races decided by fewer than 100 votes—more than any other chamber. As of 2010, there were 3,291 people in each New Hampshire House district, making them the smallest state legislative districts in the country. The second-highest number of races was in the Vermont House of Representatives, where eight were decided by fewer than 100 votes. As of 2010, there were 4,172 people in each Vermont House district, making them the second smallest state legislative districts in the country.
Most of the races took place in districts with small population sizes compared to the rest of the country. Seventy-eight races (74.3 percent) were in districts with a population of less than 25,000. Districts of this size make up 26.3 percent of all state legislative districts.
One race was critical for partisan control of state governments— Alaska House of Representatives District 1, where Bart Lebon (R) defeated Kathryn Dodge (D) by one vote. LeBon's win caused a 20-20 split between Republican-led and Democratic-led coalitions in the Alaska House of Representatives. Control of the House was eventually split between the parties after a month-long period where neither party had control.
On this page, you will find:
- The states where the 105 races decided by fewer than 100 votes took place
- An overview of partisan change in the 105 races
- The distribution of the 105 races across state houses and senates
- An analysis of the size of the districts where the 105 races took place
- A list of all 105 races
- The story of Alaska House District 1, a one-vote race with important implications
Analysis
State by state
The chart and map below show the states where state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes took place.
Partisan changes
The chart and graph below show the partisan change associated with state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes.
| Partisan changes in state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partisan change | Seats | Percentage | ||||
| Flipped Republican to Democratic | 36 | 34.3% | ||||
| Flipped Democratic to Republican | 18 | 17.1% | ||||
| Stayed Democratic | 15 | 14.3% | ||||
| Stayed Republican | 36 | 34.3% | ||||
| Total | 105 | 100% | ||||
Chamber type
The chart and graph below show the type of chamber where state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes typically took place.
| Chambers of state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partisan change | Seats | Percentage | ||||
| State House seats | 98 | 93.3% | ||||
| State Senate seats | 7 | 6.7% | ||||
| Total | 105 | 100% | ||||
Population buckets
The chart and graph below show the population size of the districts where state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes took place.
| Population size of state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population bucket | Seats decided by fewer than 100 votes | Percentage of seats decided by fewer than 100 votes | Percentage of all state legislative seats | |||
| 0-25,000 | 78 | 74.3% | 26.3% | |||
| 25,000-50,000 | 14 | 13.3% | 24.0% | |||
| 50,000-75,000 | 4 | 3.8% | 15.0% | |||
| 75,000-100,000 | 2 | 1.9% | 8.3% | |||
| 100,000+ | 7 | 6.7% | 26.5% | |||
List of races
The chart below shows the 105 state legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes in 2018. In five districts (marked with footnotes), the margin was between candidates of the same party running in multi-member districts.
Alaska House of Representatives District 1 race
This section follows the Alaska House of Representatives District 1 race, a one-vote contest that influenced partisan control of the Alaska House and trifecta control of Alaska. For a more comprehensive account of the aftermath of the 2018 Alaska House elections, click here.
Prior to November 2018 elections
In the November 2016 elections, Republicans won 21 of 40 seats in the Alaska House. They also held control of the Alaska State Senate and were looking to defeat independent Gov. Bill Walker in 2018 to turn Alaska into a trifecta.
However, after the 2016 elections, three Republican state Reps.—Paul Seaton, Gabrielle LeDoux, and Louise Stutes—formed a bipartisan majority coalition with 17 House Democrats and two independents. The coalition elected Bryce Edgmon (D) as speaker. The Republican Party of Alaska supported primary challenges against Seaton, LeDoux, and Stutes. Seaton switched his party affiliation to independent and did not run in the primary, while LeDoux and Stutes defeated their primary challengers.
House District 1 in the November 2018 elections
In November 2018, Republicans made gains in Alaska's state government by winning the governorship, holding the state Senate, and picking up seats in the state House. Specifically, Republican challengers defeated Seaton and Jason Grenn, one of the two independent members of the majority coalition.
In House District 1, which Scott Kawasaki (D) vacated to run for Senate, Bart LeBon (R) led Kathryn Dodge (D) by 79 votes. The day after the elections, 20 Republicans—led by David Talerico—held a press conference where they announced they would form a majority. LeBon attended the press conference, while Stutes, LeDoux, and David Eastman—a conservative Republican who expressed reservations about Talerico—did not. House rules required 21 votes to elect a speaker.[3]
Additional vote counting and recount in House District 1
In the days after the election, the results began to change in House District 1. On November 13, questioned ballots were counted and gave Dodge a 10-vote lead.[4] Three days after that, 309 absentee ballots were counted and LeBon took a five-vote lead.[5] On November 21, an in-person review of all ballots found that LeBon and Dodge were tied with 2,661 votes each.[6] The race was certified as a tie on November 26, and a recount was scheduled for November 30.[7] The recount found that LeBon led Dodge, 2,663 to 2,662.[8]
Aftermath of recount
After the recount, Dodge challenged four ballots in an appeal to the Alaska Supreme Court. While her appeal worked its way through the system, another member of the Republican coalition, Gary Knopp, announced he was leaving the group to try to form a bipartisan House majority.[9] The Supreme Court upheld the four ballots on January 4, ensuring LeBon's victory.[10] However, Knopp's defection and the continued unwillingness of Stutes and LeDoux to caucus with other Republicans created a 20-20 split in the House.[11]Cite error: Closing </ref> missing for <ref> tag LeBon joined the bipartisan majority and received a seat on the House Finance Committee.[12]
Because Republicans did not capture the House outright, Alaska remained under divided government rather than becoming a Republican trifecta.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Although Republicans won a 23-16-1 majority in the elections, three Republicans and one independent aligned with Democrats in the House speaker's race in the weeks after the election, creating a 20-20 split. Four Republicans and the independent eventually voted with the 16 Democrats to elect Bryce Edgmon as speaker, and the parties split control of the House via a power-sharing arrangement.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Multi-member district where vote was between two candidates of the same party.
- ↑ KTOO, "House member named as next speaker lacks votes he needs to be elected," November 8, 2018
- ↑ Daily News-Miner, "Latest ballot count puts two Democrats ahead of GOP candidates in Fairbanks legislative races," November 13, 2018
- ↑ KTOO, "Kawasaki’s lead appears secure for state Senate, LeBon overtakes Dodge for House seat," November 16, 2018
- ↑ Daily News-Miner, "Dodge, LeBon tied again in House race following absentee ballot count," November 21, 2018
- ↑ WebCenter 11, "Dodge, LeBon still tied after election certification," November 26, 2018
- ↑ Alaska Public Media, "Pivotal House race recount now favors LeBon by 1 vote," November 30, 2018
- ↑ The Fresno Bee, "State Rep. Knopp leaving GOP caucus in bid for coalition," December 8, 2018
- ↑ KTUU, "Alaska Supreme Court denies Dodge appeal, LeBon wins House District 1," January 4, 2019
- ↑ Seattle Times, "Alaska House remains without speaker after dramatic session," February 12, 2019
- ↑ Must Read Alaska, "House committee assignments announced," February 19, 2019
