Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 31 (September 14, 2018)

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Issue No. 31


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Thanks for joining us as we've covered the Heart of the Primaries this year. We hope you've enjoyed following the stories shaping the future of each party as much as we have covering them. Stay tuned for next week's first Election Updates newsletter, which will carry us through the Nov. 6, 2018 midterms.

Republican pundits on the news

All primary season, we've looked at where Republican and conservative pundits disagree on the news of the week. Here are this week’s stories and three of our favorites from earlier in the cycle.

“That’s partly why conservative candidates who could be thought of as “Tea Party” insurgents performed miserably against incumbent Republicans in the 2018 primaries: There’s no movement to support them.

But Republicans need the conservative movement. They cannot win the midterms by offering a milquetoast, unambitious agenda of cutting taxes and complaining that there aren’t enough Republicans in the Senate to do anything else.”

“None of this will necessarily stop a Democratic House takeover; the tea party’s excesses didn’t stop Republicans in 2010. But it could hint at what a takeover could look like. Veteran staffers still wince at the GOP disarray that followed tea-party triumph—endless internal feuding, yanked legislation, leadership challenges, a shutdown. The GOP managed to stop the Obama legislative agenda, but did precious little else.”

June

“President Trump flexed his political muscle and proved he has the power to sway Republican voters Tuesday when his last-minute attack on U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C., helped defeat the former governor – a frequent critic of the president – in Sanford’s primary for re-election to the House.


“In many respects, Sanford was caught flat-footed by his challenger. Arrington came out swinging with pro-Trump ads. Sanford then had to go on the defensive to counter punch.

Keep in mind that the president didn’t tweet support for Arrington until late in the day yesterday. By that point, people were either engaged in the Sanford-Arrington tilt or they weren’t. The die was cast.

So, the president wields leverage in South Carolina. That tells us a lot about primaries. But not the midterm in the fall.”

April

“Here is my theory about this upcoming election: If the economy is perceived to be either strong or getting stronger by the majority of voters, Republicans will keep the House and expand their majority in the Senate.

The reason has nothing to do about the efficacy of the Trump tax cuts. When the economy is strong, voters focus on cultural and social issues, which tend to cut better for the GOP. When the economy is weak, voters turn to the Democrats, because they figure they will find ways to spend money to take care of them.”

“Just compare the results to an appropriate baseline (like Trump’s performance or partisan lean), average it and look at the data in the context of important polls like presidential approval and the generic ballot. And a coherent picture emerges from that data: that Democrats are going to make big gains in the 2018 midterms, probably taking the House and possibly the Senate as well.”

February

“But it is true that Buckley’s present influence on one of the institutions he helped build is nil, because the conservative movement is no more. Its destroyers are Donald Trump and his admirers.”

“He has positioned himself, as Churchill did, as a modern tribune of the people—standing in the elite halls, but against the easy consensus of the elites. Whether the Churchillian Mr. Trump will prevail, where even Mr. Churchill could not, will be for the people to decide.”

Election results

Eddie Edwards wins Republican nomination for NH-1

Former police chief Eddie Edwards defeated four candidates in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Republican primary. He received 48 percent of the vote. State Sen. Andy Sanborn finished second with 42 percent.

Republicans hope to regain the seat, which has changed hands between Republican and Democratic incumbents five times in the last six elections. Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is retiring. Edwards faces Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) in the general election.

Primary season roundup

Ballotpedia has been analyzing the 2018 primaries all year long, combining our eye for the most compelling stories with our breadth and scope of coverage. Here's a recap of the top stories and most interesting figures of the year.

Top 10 Republican Primaries

These 10 Republican Party primaries were the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Our final list contains primaries for four U.S House seats, four gubernatorial races, one U.S Senate seat, and one set of state legislative contests.

The House Freedom Caucus in 2018 primaries

Candidates affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus won eight of the 18 competitive primaries they ran in this year.

Only six of the 18 primaries occurred in districts previously represented by Freedom Caucus members, meaning the group could add two new members if all of its candidates win in November.

Notable races include:

  • Freedom Caucus-backed Mark Harris’ defeat of incumbent Robert Pittenger.
  • Katie Arrington’s defeat of Freedom Caucus member Mark Sanford.
  • Businessman Kevin Hern’s win over Freedom Caucus-backed Andy Harris in former Freedom Caucus member Jim Bridenstine’s seat.

2018 primaries: more candidates, contested primaries, and open seats

16,889 candidates ran for 6,754 seats in state and federal primaries across the country this year.

  • An average of 2.5 candidates filed for each seat up for election. This is up from 2.2 candidates per seat in 2016 and 2.15 candidates per seat in 2014.
  • Twenty percent of seats were open in 2018. This was also up from 17.4 percent in 2016 and 16.4 percent in 2014.
  • More primaries—24.1 percent—were contested in 2018 than the past two election cycles. In 2016, 19.4 percent of primaries were contested. In 2014, 18.2 percent of primaries were contested.
  • Incumbents also faced a greater number of contested primaries: 25.6 percent in 2018 compared to 23.3 percent in 2016 and 22 percent in 2014.

State legislative incumbents facing primary challenges

In 2018, 557 Republican state legislators seeking re-election—19.6 percent—faced a primary challenger.

  • Of the 557 Republicans to face a primary challenge, 67 were defeated—the lowest number for an even-numbered year since 2010. Put another way, 88.0 percent of Republican legislators facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2016, 84 Republican legislators were defeated by primary challengers, meaning that 86.1 percent facing primary challengers won their primaries.
  • In 2014, 85 Republican legislators were defeated by primary challengers.

Forty-three states have both detailed 2016 presidential results available and are holding legislative elections for partisan legislatures this year. In those states, 680 Republican legislators opted to not seek re-election.

  • Legislators in districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016 accounted for 11.8 percent of Republican seats up in these states but represent 14.4 percent of Republican retirements.
  • Legislators in districts that overlap with pivot counties—areas that backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016—make up 11.2 percent of Republican seats up in these states and account for 15.3 percent of Republican retirements.

2018's closest primary elections

The 10 closest primaries held between January and June 2018 all had seven or fewer votes separating the winning and losing candidates. The closest primary was for a state legislative seat in Pennsylvania, which was won by one vote. Three races were determined by a margin of two votes, and one race was determined by a margin of three votes. Three of the primaries involved incumbents and all three incumbents won.

Closest Republican primaries (2018)
Race Winning votes Losing votes Vote difference
PA State House Dist. 193 1,784 1,783 1
AR State House Dist. 90 1,068 1,066 2
OR State House Dist. 53 3,771 3,769 2
MT State House Dist. 92 414 412 2
San Diego City Council Dist. 8 4,087 4,084 3
WV State House Dist. 16 848 844 4
Clark County (NV) Public Administrator 29,514 29,518 4
OK State House Dist. 12 2,338 2,333 5
TX State House Dist. 107 2,064 2,058 6
ME State House Dist. 110 210 203 7


Special guest analysis: What the 2018 primary upsets tell us

Barry Casselman has covered national politics and public policy issues since 1972. We invited him to share analysis of 2018 primary election upsets. Click here for more from his blog, The Prairie Editor.

The political upsets in the 2018 midterm primaries have many themes in common. They include the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win over Joe Crowley in a New York U.S. House race, Jeff Johnson’s defeat of Tim Pawlenty in the Minnesota GOP governor’s race, Andrew Gillum’s victory over Gwen Graham in the Florida Democratic governor’s race, Mike Braun’s upset win in the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate race, Ron DeSantis’ come-from-behind victory over early favorite Adam Putnam in the GOP Florida gubernatorial primary, Ben Jealous’ surprise win in the Maryland Democratic governor’s race, Kevin Stitt’s win the race to be chief executive in an Oklahoma run-off, and Keith Ellison’s last-minute win in the Minnesota DFL attorney general primary.

In recent weeks, Massachusetts provided one more big upset when Ayanna Pressley upset 10-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in the state’s 7th Congressional District. Like the Ocasio-Cortez upset in New York, the Democratic incumbent was a bona fide progressive liberal, but the district’s voters obviously wanted a new face who was even further left. Once again, as in the New York race and the Minnesota and Florida gubernatorial contests, the polls did not detect the voters’ late-breaking trend.

What these wins, unexpected at the outset of the primary season, have in common is their ties to the new leaders in their respective parties.

The Republican upsets can be attributed in notable part to the role of President Donald Trump, either by endorsement or the assertion of support of the new Republican president. The Democratic upsets can be attributed notably to the winner’s support by or of 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders, his allies, and his policies. These two themes are likely to continue in the autumn campaigns of these winners against their opponents.

Another take-away from these upsets in both parties was that the public polling in these races failed to measure last-minute voter decision making—something which could carry over to the late polling of voter sentiment in November.

While Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Pressley (Mass.) and Stitt (Okla.) are now certain or very likely to be elected, and Jealous (Md.) faces a steep uphill contest against a popular GOP governor, Johnson (Minn.), Gillum (Fla.), DeSantis (Fla.), Braun (Ind.) and Ellison (Minn.) are looking at likely competitive races. Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders will, a least in these races, be testing their relative strength in advance of 2020.

Power Players

Each week, we've highlighted one power player influencing the future of the Republican Party. Here's who we covered…

Looking ahead: measuring a wave

With the primaries over, election forecasters are looking ahead to November. Some predict a Democratic wave that will end Republican control of the House and possibly the Senate.

Ballotpedia looked at historical election data and defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years where the president’s party lost the most seats.

For 2018 to be counted alongside wave elections like 2010, 1994, and 1932, Republicans have to lose:

  • 48 U.S. House seats
  • Seven U.S. Senate seats
  • Seven governorships
  • 494 state legislative seats

Read our full report on wave elections here.

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