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Election results, 2020: Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections
This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2020 elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.
Two-hundred and twenty seven incumbent state legislators lost re-election in general elections on Nov. 3, 2020. This represents 4.7% of all state legislative incumbents who ran in general elections.
165 Democrats
52 Republicans
10 Independent/minor party[1]
This was the fewest number of state legislators defeated since 2010. It marked a 29.5% decrease from the 322 defeated in 2018 and was 54.8% lower than the decade-high 502 incumbents defeated in the 2010 general election. Since 2010, an average of 307 incumbents have been defeated in even-year general elections.
More Democrats lost in the general elections than Republicans in 2020, the fourth even-year cycle when this has occurred since 2010 (along with 2010, 2014, and 2016). More Republicans lost in general elections in 2012 and 2018.
In addition to general election defeats, incumbents can also lose in primary elections. In 2020, more Republicans lost in primaries (94) than Democrats (60). For more detailed information about state legislative incumbents who lost in the 2020 primaries, click here.
On average, over the past decade, more Republican incumbents lost in primaries than did Democrats (87 versus 57). More Democratic incumbents lost in general elections than did Republicans (186 versus 114). Overall, Democratic incumbents had a higher overall number of defeated incumbents than Republicans (243 versus 201).
On this page, you will find:
- A historical analysis of all defeated incumbents from 2010 to 2020
- A partisan analysis of incumbent defeats from 2010 to 2020
- An overview of incumbent turnover, including retirements, from 2010 to 2020
- A full list of incumbents defeated in general elections in 2020
Historical comparison of incumbent losses
Overall
During the 2020 election cycle, 381 incumbents lost re-election, 154 in primaries and 227 in general elections. Compared to previous election cycles since 2010, the overall defeat of 381 incumbents was the second-lowest behind the 2016 elections, when 356 incumbents lost in both primaries and general elections.
The defeat of 227 incumbents in general elections was the lowest number in the past decade. The number defeated in 2020 represented a 29.5% decrease from the 322 defeated in 2018 and was 54.8% lower than the decade-high 502 incumbents defeated in the 2010 general election.
The defeat of 154 incumbent in primaries was the second-highest, exceeded only by the 2012 elections, when 194 incumbents lost to primary challengers.
Over the past decade, an average of 127 incumbents lost in primaries and 307 lost in general elections. With both combined, an overall average of 451 incumbents lost in each election cycle.
The graph below shows a comparison between incumbent losses from 2010 to 2020 broken down by the type of defeat.
Partisan analysis
Between 2010 and 2020, there were three even-year cycles when more Democratic incumbents lost re-election than Republicans, and three cycles where more Republican incumbents lost re-election than Democrats.
In primaries, Republican incumbents have been defeated at higher numbers than Democratic incumbents in the previous five election cycles. In 2010, both parties saw 56 incumbents defeated in primaries.
In general elections, the number of Democratic incumbent losses has exceeded that of Republican incumbents in four election cycles. The number of Republican losses has exceeded Democratic losses in two.
On average, over the past decade, more Republican incumbents lost in primaries than did Democrats (87 versus 57). More Democratic incumbents lost in general elections than did Republicans (186 versus 114). Overall, Democratic incumbents had a higher overall number of defeated incumbents than Republicans (243 versus 201).
The graph below shows a partisan breakdown of incumbent losses from 2010 to 2020. Use the buttons to view partisan data broken down by primary or general election.
Click [show] on the chart below to view a breakdown of state legislative incumbent losses in primaries and general elections used in the analysis above.
| State legislative incumbents losses, 2010-2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Party | Primary election defeats | General election defeats | Total incumbent defeats | ||
| 2020 | ||||||
| Democrats | 60[2] | 165[3] | 225 | |||
| Republicans | 94[4] | 52 | 146 | |||
| Other | N/A | 10 | 10 | |||
| Total | 154 | 227 | 381 | |||
| 2018 | ||||||
| Democrats | 70 | 49 | 119 | |||
| Republicans | 77 | 253 | 330 | |||
| Other | N/A | 20 | 20 | |||
| Total | 147 | 322 | 469 | |||
| 2016 | ||||||
| Democrats | 39 | 126 | 165 | |||
| Republicans | 84 | 103 | 187 | |||
| Other | N/A | 4 | 4 | |||
| Total | 123 | 233 | 356 | |||
| 2014 | ||||||
| Democrats | 46 | 226 | 272 | |||
| Republicans | 85 | 40 | 125 | |||
| Total | 131 | 266 | 397 | |||
| 2012 | ||||||
| Democrats | 71 | 66 | 137 | |||
| Republicans | 123 | 224 | 347 | |||
| Other | N/A | 4 | 4 | |||
| Total | 194 | 294 | 488 | |||
| 2010 | ||||||
| Democrats | 56 | 482 | 538 | |||
| Republicans | 56 | 14 | 70 | |||
| Other | N/A | 6 | 6 | |||
| Total | 112 | 502 | 614 | |||
| Decade Avg. | ||||||
| Democrats | 57 | 186 | 243 | |||
| Republicans | 87 | 114 | 201 | |||
| Other | N/A | 7 | 7 | |||
| Total | 127 | 307 | 451 | |||
Historical comparison of incumbent turnover
Ballotpedia calculates total incumbent turnover by combining the number of incumbents defeated in both primary and general elections with the number of incumbents who retired and did not seek re-election.
In addition to measuring the number of outgoing incumbents, incumbent turnover also represents the number of newcomers among incoming state legislators.
Incumbent turnover in 2020 was 1,263, the lowest level since at least 2010. By party, incumbent turnover was 627 for Democrats and 636 for Republicans, the greatest level of parity over the preceding decade.
Both Democrats and Republicans saw their lowest numbers of retirement since at least 2010 at 402 and 490, respectively.
The table below shows the total incumbent turnover from 2010 to 2020. The column on the right calculates the averages of each row across the decade.
| State legislative incumbent turnover, 2010-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type of turnover | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | Decade avg. |
| Democrats who retired | 579 | 517 | 466 | 427 | 427 | 402 | 470 |
| Democrats defeated in primaries | 56 | 71 | 46 | 39 | 70 | 60[5] | 57 |
| Democrats defeated in general elections | 482 | 66 | 226 | 126 | 49 | 165[6] | 186 |
| Total Democratic turnover | 1,117 | 654 | 738 | 592 | 546 | 627 | 713 |
| Republicans who retired | 533 | 591 | 545 | 590 | 723 | 490 | 579 |
| Republicans defeated in primaries | 56 | 123 | 85 | 84 | 77 | 94[7] | 87 |
| Republicans defeated in general elections | 14 | 224 | 40 | 103 | 253 | 52 | 114 |
| Total Republican turnover | 603 | 938 | 670 | 777 | 1,053 | 636 | 780 |
| Total turnover | 1,720 | 1,592 | 1,408 | 1,369 | 1,599 | 1,263 | 1,492 |
The chart below shows the data above. Use the buttons to cycle between an overall view showing the total partisan turnover numbers and a detailed view showing the total broken down by retirements, primary defeats, and general election defeats.
The chart below shows turnover rates by type as a percentage of the total number of state legislative seats up for election from 2010 to 2020. For example, in 2020, 15.3% of incumbents retired, 2.6% lost in primaries, 3.9% lost in general elections, and 78.2% won re-election.
Incumbents defeated in general elections
Map of defeated incumbents
The map below shows the number of incumbent legislators defeated in state legislative elections by state. Use the buttons to view defeats as a percentage of incumbents who ran in general elections.
List of defeated incumbents
The list below contains all incumbents who lost in general elections on Nov. 3:
See also
- Incumbents defeated in 2020's state legislative primary elections
- State legislative seats that changed party control
- State legislative races decided by fewer than 100 votes
- Number of state legislators by party
- State legislative elections, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ This figure includes Assm. Walter Mosley (D-N.Y.), Assm. Carmen Arroyo (D-N.Y.), Rep. John DeBerry Jr. (D-Tenn.), and Rep. Robin Chesnut-Tangerman (Vermont Progressive-Vt.).
Mosley was defeated in the Democratic primary, but ran in the general election as a Working Families Party candidate.
Arroyo and DeBerry were disqualified from their respective primaries, but ran in the general election as a minor party and independent candidate, respectively.
Chesnut-Tangerman was a member of the Vermont Progressive Party. He received the Vermont Progressive Party nomination again in 2020 as well as the Democratic nomination. Since he did not win, he was recorded as a minor party incumbent rather than a Democratic incumbent. - ↑ This figure does not include Assm. Walter Mosley (D-N.Y.). Mosley was defeated in the Democratic primary but ran in the general election as a minor party candidate. This defeat is recorded in the "Other" row as a general election defeat.
- ↑ This figure does not include Assm. Carmen Arroyo (D-N.Y.), Rep. John DeBerry Jr. (D-Tenn.), or Rep. Robin Chesnut-Tangerman (Vermont Progressive-Vt.). Arroyo and DeBerry were disqualified from their respective Democratic primaries. Both ran as minor party candidates in the general election and lost. Chesnut-Tangerman was a member of the Vermont Progressive Party. In 2020, he received the Democratic Party nomination in addition to the Vermont Progressive Party nomination. He was defeated in the general election. These defeats are recorded in the "Other" row as general election defeats.
- ↑ This figure includes Rep. Bradley Daw (R-Utah) who was defeated in a convention rather than a primary election.
- ↑ This total does not include Assm. Walter Mosley (D-N.Y.). Mosley was defeated in the Democratic primary, but ran in the general election as a minor party candidate.
- ↑ This figure does not include Assm. Carmen Arroyo (D-N.Y.), Rep. John DeBerry Jr. (D-Tenn.), or Rep. Robin Chesnut-Tangerman (Vermont Progressive-Vt.). Arroyo and DeBerry were disqualified from their respective Democratic primaries. Both ran as a minor party candidates in the general election and lost. Chesnut-Tangerman was a member of the Vermont Progressive Party. In 2020, he receive the Democratic Party nomination in addition to the Vermont Progressive Party nomination. He was defeated in the general election, but is not counted as a Democratic incumbent since that party affiliation would have not applied until after he won election to the seat.
- ↑ Total includes Utah Rep. Bradley Daw (R) who was defeated in a contested convention rather than a primary.
- ↑ Mosley was a Democratic member of the New York State Assembly. He was defeated in the district's Democratic primary and again the general election as a Working Families Party candidate.
- ↑ Arroyo was a Democratic member of the New York State Assembly. She was disqualified from the district's Democratic primary and lost in the general election as a Proven Leader Party candidate.
- ↑ DeBerry was a Democratic member of the Tennessee House of Representatives. He was disqualified from the district's Democratic primary and lost in the general election as an independent candidate.
