Incumbent turnover increases only slightly following nine state legislative primaries
August 13, 2014
By Tyler King
With only 10 state primaries to go, the rate of incumbents winning against primary challengers now stands at 86.4 percent, an increase from 86.1 percent prior to the August primaries. In just the last two weeks, nine state primaries have come and gone. Of the 19 incumbents to be defeated in that time, eight were in Tennessee. Only Maryland and Texas have seen a larger number of incumbents defeated this year. Eleven incumbents were defeated in Texas and twelve in Maryland primaries.
Thus far, 36 states have held primary elections. Of those states, 748 incumbents retired and another 102 were defeated in primaries.
61 Democrats faced primary opposition in the first half of August. Eight were defeated (13.1%).
92 Republicans faced a primary challenger, with eleven (12.0%) failing to advance past the primary.
As the primaries continue Ballotpedia will continue to update the competitiveness analysis and incumbent turnover figures, giving you the play-by-play of this year's state legislative elections. Below we detail the exact events that occurred in the most recent primaries.
Impact on incumbent turnover
A total of 36 states have held primary elections in 2014, with another ten to come. In the states that have held primaries, 748 incumbents retired and another 102 were defeated in primaries. 850 total incumbents will not be running in the general election, meaning that 18.8 percent of the seats up for election are open.
In total, 748 partisan incumbents have faced primary opposition so far.
- 38 Democrats have been defeated, with 87.5 percent advancing past the primary.
- 64 Republicans have been defeated, while the remaining 85.6 percent have advanced.
- Overall, 86.4 percent of incumbents have advanced past the primary.
- Republicans account for 55.9 percent of overall partisan incumbent turnover, while Democrats make up 44.1 percent. Of the seats up for election in 2014, 51.6 percent are held by Republicans and 47.5 percent are held by Democrats.
| Incumbent turnover compared by year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2010 percent | 2012 | 2012 percent | 2014 | 2014 percent | |
| Retired Democrats | 579 | 52.07% | 517 | 46.66% | 441 | 44.77% |
| Defeated Democrats | 52 | 54.17% | 73 | 37.06% | 38 | 37.25% |
| Total D turnover | 631 | 52.24% | 590 | 45.21% | 479 | 44.07% |
| Retired Republicans | 533 | 47.93% | 591 | 53.34% | 544 | 55.23% |
| Defeated Republicans | 44 | 45.83% | 124 | 62.94% | 64 | 62.75% |
| Total R turnover | 577 | 47.76% | 715 | 54.79% | 608 | 55.93% |
Kansas
August 5, 2014 election
Twenty-one incumbents, all Republicans, faced primary opposition. Three were defeated, a sharp decline from the 20 that lost in 2012 primaries. Factors that contributed to such high numbers in 2012 included incumbent versus incumbent primaries due to redistricting and a strong push from further-right Republicans to oust the more moderate members of the party.
- House District 50: Incumbent Joshua Powell was defeated by Fred Patton in the Republican primary on August 5, 2014. Unofficial results show Patton leading by 64 votes. In 2012, Powell won the general election by a margin of 10 percent.[1]
- House District 65: Incumbent Allan Rothlisberg was defeated by Lonnie Clark in the Republican primary. Clark will face Tom Brungardt (D) in the general election. Rothlisberg won the district by a margin of 0.4 percent in 2012.
- House District 93: Incumbent Joe Edwards (R) was defeated by John Whitmer, who will face Sammy Flaharty (D) in the general election.
Michigan
August 5, 2014 election
Twenty-four incumbents, eight Democrats and sixteen Republicans, faced a primary challenger. Rep. Frank Foster (R) was the only legislator who failed to advance past the primary.
Missouri
August 5, 2014 election
Twenty incumbents, six Democrats and fourteen Republicans, faced primary opposition. One incumbent Bonnaye Mims, a Democrat from House District 27, was defeated by a primary challenger. Unofficial results put her opponent ahead by 17 votes.[2]
Washington
August 5, 2014 election
Seventeen incumbents, eight Democrats and nine Republicans, faced primary opposition. One incumbent, Leonard Christian (R), from House District 4a, failed to advance past the primary. Christian was defeated by Republicans Bob McCaslin and Diana Wilhite. He was appointed in January 2014 to fill the seat vacated by Larry Crouse (R).
Tennessee
August 7, 2014 election
Twenty-six incumbents, five Democrats and twenty-one Republicans, faced primary opposition, with eight being defeated. Those incumbents, two Democrats and six Republicans, are:
State Senate
- District 7: Richard Briggs defeated incumbent Stacey Campfield and Mike Alford in the Republican primary.
- District 25: Kerry Roberts defeated incumbent Jim Summerville, Joshua Evans and Wayne White in the Republican primary.
- District 29: Lee Harris defeated incumbent Ophelia Ford, Ricky Dixon and Herman Sawyer in the Democratic primary.
State House
- District 2: Incumbent Tony Shipley was defeated by Bud Hulsey in the Republican primary.
- District 18: Incumbent Steve Hall was defeated by Martin Daniel in the Republican primary.
- District 35: Incumbent Dennis Roach was defeated by Jerry Sexton in the Republican primary.
- District 55: Incumbent Gary Odom was defeated by John Ray Clemmons in the Democratic primary.
- District 71: Incumbent Vance Dennis was defeated by David Byrd in the Republican primary.
Hawaii
August 9, 2014 election
Twenty incumbents, nineteen Democrats and one Republican, faced primary opposition. Three incumbents, all Democrats, were defeated.
State Senate
- District 4: Incumbent Faye Pua Hanohano (D) was defeated by Joy A. San Buenaventura in the Democratic primary. Hanohano was accused in February 2014 of making racist and abusive remarks towards the head of Hawaii's Department of Land and Natural Resources' staff.[3]
- District 41: Five-term incumbent Rida Cabanilla Arakawa (D) was defeated by Matthew Lopresti in the Democratic primary.
State House
- District 4: Incumbent Malama Solomon (D) was defeated by Lorraine Rodero Inouye in the Democratic primary.
Connecticut
August 12, 2014 election
Twenty-four incumbents, ten Democrats and eight Republicans, faced primary opposition. Two were defeated: one Democrat from each chamber.
- Senate District 22: Incumbent Anthony J. Musto (D) was defeated by Marilyn Moore in the Democratic primary.
- House District 128: Incumbent Christina M. Ayala (D) was defeated by Christopher Rosario in the Democratic primary.
Minnesota
August 12, 2014 election
Five incumbents, four Democrats and one Republican, faced primary opposition. All five advanced past the primary election.
Wisconsin
August 12, 2014 election
Eleven incumbents, three Democrats and eight Republicans, faced primary opposition and all defeated their primary challengers.
Updates to Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis
Candidate lists can change frequently throughout the election season. Ballotpedia staff re-examines each list on a monthly basis for any changes. In a few instances, those changes can impact the overall data under our Competitiveness Analysis. The analysis is updated as those changes to candidate lists are identified.
The following is a brief summary of three pillars of the analysis.
Incumbents in primaries
A total of 980 incumbents have faced or will face a primary challenger in 2014.
Since 5,048 incumbents are running for re-election in 2014, that means that only 19.4% of them faced or will face a primary challenger. In 2012, 1,175 (24.6%) of incumbents faced a primary opponent.
The remaining 4,068 incumbents (80.6%) that ran for re-election in 2014 had or will have no primary challenger.
General election competition
There are 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives. Heading into the election, there are only 72 total third party legislators out of 7,383 total state legislators. Of those 72, 49 are Nebraska State Senators, where all candidates must run as nonpartisan. Thus, a major party candidate is virtually guaranteed election when facing third parties.
- Given that major party candidates win nearly 100% of the time, a candidate running without any major party opposition is essentially assured election -- even if there are third party candidates.
- There is only one major party candidate in 2,739 (45.2%) of the 6,056 seats up for election in 2014.
- There is more than one major party candidate in 3,317 (54.8%) of the 6,056 seats up for election in 2014. In 2012, 3,709 (61.7%) seats had two or more major party candidates.
Open seats
There is no incumbent running for re-election in 1,007 (16.6%) of the 6,056 seats up for election in 2014, either because he or she voluntarily chose not to run again, was impacted by term limits or affected by redistricting. This is a decrease from 21.2 percent in 2012.
The incumbent ran for re-election in 83.3% of the 6,056 seats up for election.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2014
- 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
Footnotes
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