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{{UScong2018toc}}A total of 468 seats in the [[U.S. Congress]] (33 [[United States Senate|Senate]] seats and all 435 [[United States House of Representatives|House]] seats) {{2018are}} up for election on November 6, 2018.
{{Electionbanner 2018 national}}
{{UScong2018toc}}
On November 6, 2018, 470 seats in the [[U.S. Congress]] (35 [[United States Senate|Senate]] seats and all 435 [[United States House of Representatives|House]] seats) {{2018are}} up for election. The [[Democratic Party]] won control of the House, and the [[Republican Party]] retained control of the Senate.


Heading into the election, the Republican Party {{2018holds}} a 52 seat majority in the Senate. Democrats {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=hold | after=held }} 46 seats, and the remaining two {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=are held| after=were held }} by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party {{2018is}} on the defensive in 2018, as they {{2018are}} left defending 25 seats (two of which {{2018are}} held by independents), while only eight seats up for election in 2018 {{2018are}} held by Republican incumbents. The Democratic Party {{2018is}} further weakened by having to defend seats in a number of states which supported [[Donald Trump]] over [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016.
Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than the 23 seats they needed to win control of the House. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled the House with a 235-193 majority (plus seven vacancies). [[Wave_elections_(1918-2016)/House_waves|From 1918 to 2016]], the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.  


Heading into the election, the Republican Party {{2018holds}} a majority of 241 seats to Democrats' 194 seats in the House. Due to the general lack of competition, it {{2018is}} unlikely that the Democratic Party {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before= will be | after= would be}} able to flip control of the chamber in 2018. Democratic gains {{2018are}} predicted though, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election.
Republicans gained a net total of two U.S. Senate seats. Heading into the election, Republicans held 51 seats, Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucused with Democrats. In 2018, Democrats defended 26 seats—two held by independents—while Republicans defended nine seats. Ten Democratic seats were in states that supported [[Donald Trump]] (R) over [[Hillary Clinton]] (D) in 2016.


Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm. The party of a newly elected president has gained seats in the House in the following midterm only twice since then; Democrats gained nine seats in 1934 following Franklin D. Roosevelt's first presidential election in 1932, and Republicans gained eight seats in 2002 following [[George W. Bush]]'s election to the presidency in 2000. Due to this trend, more House seats that {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before= are currently held| after= were held}} by Republican incumbents {{2018are}} expected to be in play than in a normal congressional election.<ref>[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php ''The American Presidency Project'', "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections," accessed February 6, 2017]</ref>
On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the 2018 congressional elections:


==Presidential data==
*The '''[[#Partisan breakdown|partisan breakdown]]''' of the U.S. Senate before and after the election;
===Senate===
*An overview of recent '''[[#Outcome of recent presidential and gubernatorial elections|presidential voting trends]]''' in states with competitive U.S. Senate and U.S. House races;
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.
*A list of all congressional '''[[#Battlegrounds|battlegrounds]]''' in 2018;
*An overview of '''[[#Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress|special elections]]''' in 2017 and 2018.
*An overview of the '''[[#Fundraising by candidate|top U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraisers]]''';
*Information about '''[[#Incumbents not running for re-election|incumbents not running for re-election]]'''; and
*'''[[#Analysis of federal elections, 2018|Analaysis of federal elections]]'''.


*There {{2018are}} 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that [[Donald Trump]] won in 2016: [[United States Senate election in Montana, 2018|Montana]], [[United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018|North Dakota]], [[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018|Missouri]], [[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]], [[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]], [[United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018|West Virginia]], [[United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018|Ohio]], [[United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018|Indiana]], [[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]], and [[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018|Pennsylvania]] and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016: [[United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018|Nevada]].
==Partisan breakdown==


*There {{2018are}} 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor: [[United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018|New Mexico]], [[United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018|North Dakota]], [[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018|Missouri]], [[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]], [[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]], [[United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018|Ohio]], [[United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018|Indiana]], [[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]], [[United States Senate election in Maryland, 2018|Maryland]], [[United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018|New Jersey]], [[United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018|Massachusetts]], [[United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018|Vermont]], and [[United States Senate election in Maine, 2018|Maine]] but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
===U.S. Senate===
In the [[United States Senate elections, 2016|2016 elections]], the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party {{2018holds}} the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=have| after=had}} 47 Senate seats, and two seats {{2018are}} held by independents who {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=caucus| after=caused}} with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.
{{USSenatepartisan18}}
 
===U.S. House===
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. This was short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=would need| after=needed}} to pick up 23 seats in 2018 to win partisan control. In 2018, Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than they needed.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/house ''The New York Times'', "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016]</ref>
{{USHousepartisan18}}
 
 
==Battlegrounds==
Battlegrounds were races that Ballotpedia expected to be particularly competitive, interesting, or meaningful to the future balance of power in Congress. Factors that we considered in naming a battleground election included the margins of victory from the previous few congressional elections in the district, how the district voted in the most recent presidential elections, whether a seat was open, if a particularly strong challenger had entered the race, and more.
 
===U.S. Senate===
{{USSenate2018battlegrounds map}}
 
{{USSenate2018battlegrounds}}
 
===U.S. House===
{{#section:U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018|bttlgrndsummary}}
{{USHouse2018battlegrounds map}}
 
{{USHouse2018battlegrounds}}
 
==Margin of victory==
:''See also: [[Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections]]''
The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent.
===U.S. Senate===
*The average margin of victory was 16.8 percent. This is below the 22.1 percent average in [[United States Senate elections, 2016|2016]] and the 22.6 percent average in [[United States Senate elections, 2014|2014]].
*On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 16.8 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 14.3 percent.
*The closest race was in [[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]], where challenger [[Rick Scott]] (R) defeated incumbent [[Bill Nelson]] (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.
{{SEP Collapsible list
|title=Click [show] to view a list of U.S. Senate elections sorted by margin of victory
|
{{#lst:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections|SenateMOV}}
}}
 
===U.S. House===
*The average margin of victory was 30.2 percent. This is below the 36.6 percent average in [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2016|2016]] and the 35.8 percent average in [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2014|2014]].
*On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 36.6 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 22.8 percent.
*The closest race was in [[Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|Georgia's 7th Congressional District]], where incumbent [[Rob Woodall]] (R) defeated challenger [[Carolyn Bourdeaux]] (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.
{{SEP Collapsible list
|title=Click [show] to view a list of U.S. House elections sorted by margin of victory
|
{{#lst:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections|HouseMOV}}
}}
 
==Fundraising by candidate==
 
The following charts show the top U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraisers of the 2017-2018 election cycle based on FEC filings through December 17, 2018.
 
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*There {{2018are}} four states that [[Barack Obama]] won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by [[Donald Trump]] in 2016: [[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]], [[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]], [[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018|Pennsylvania]], and [[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]] but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 ([[John McCain|McCain]] and [[Mitt Romney|Romney]]) which were won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016:
==Fundraising by party==


===House===
::''See also: [[Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018]]''
The following statistics were compiled using the [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data]. They can be used to predict which districts are expected to be competitive in the 2018 elections.<ref>[http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections ''Daily Kos'', "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017]</ref>
{{#section:Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018|Summary}}
{{#section:Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018|Summarytable}}


*There {{2018are}} 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that [[Hillary Clinton]] won in 2016: [[Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-02]], [[California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-10]], [[California's 21st Congressional District election, 2018|CA-21]], [[California's 25th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-25]], [[California's 39th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-39]], [[California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-45]], [[California's 48th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-48]], [[California's 49th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-49]], [[Colorado's 6th Congressional District election, 2018|CO-06]], [[Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018|FL-26]], [[Florida's 27th Congressional District election, 2018|FL-27]], [[Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-06]], [[Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|KS-03]], [[Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|MN-03]], [[New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-07]], [[New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-24]], [[Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-06]], [[Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-07]], [[Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2018|TX-07]], [[Texas' 23rd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-23]], [[Texas' 32nd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-32]], [[Virginia's 10th Congressional District election, 2018|VA-10]], and [[Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|WA-08]]
==Pre-election analysis based on recent election history==
The following section compares results from the most recent presidential, gubernatorial, or U.S. House elections that occurred prior to the 2018 elections. These results provided early indications of expected competitive Senate and House elections in 2018.
===U.S. Senate===
In U.S. Senate elections, recent history showed that the Democratic Party could be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in 2018.
 
There {{2018are}} 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that [[Donald Trump]] won in 2016:  
 
{{col-begin|width=30%}}
{{col-break}}
*[[United States Senate election in Montana, 2018|Montana]]
*[[United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018|North Dakota]]
*[[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018|Missouri]]
*[[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]]
*[[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]]
{{col-break}}
*[[United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018|West Virginia]]
*[[United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018|Ohio]]
*[[United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018|Indiana]]
*[[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]]
*[[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018|Pennsylvania]]
{{col-end}}
 
Only one state with a Republican incumbent was won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016: [[United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018|Nevada]].


*There {{2018are}} 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that [[Donald Trump]] won in 2016: [[Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-01]], [[Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-02]], [[Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-17]], [[Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|MN-01]], [[Minnesota's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-07]], [[Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-08]], [[New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NH-01]], [[New Jersey's 5th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-05]], [[Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NV-03]], [[New York's 18th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-18]], [[Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-17]], and [[Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|WI-03]]
There {{2018are}} 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor:  


*There {{2018are}} 20 House seats that [[Barack Obama]] won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by [[Donald Trump]] in 2016: [[Iowa's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|IA-01]], [[Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-02]], [[Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-03]], [[Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-12]], [[Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-17]], [[Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|ME-02]], [[Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|MN-01]], [[Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|MN-02]], [[Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-08]], [[New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NH-01]], [[New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-02]], [[New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-03]], [[Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NV-03]], [[New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NY-01]], [[New York's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|NY-02]], [[New York's 18th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-18]], [[New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-19]], [[New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2018|NY-21]], [[Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-17]], and [[Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|WI-03]]
{{col-begin|width=30%}}
{{col-break}}


*There {{2018are}} eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 ([[John McCain|McCain]] and [[Mitt Romney|Romney]]) which were won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016: [[Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-02]], [[California's 39th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-39]], [[California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-45]], [[California's 48th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-48]], [[Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|KS-03]], [[New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-07]], [[Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2018|TX-07]], and [[Texas' 32nd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-32]]
*[[United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018|New Mexico]]
*[[United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018|North Dakota]]
==U.S. Senate==
*[[United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018|Missouri]]
Heading into the election, the Republican Party {{2018holds}} the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=have| after=had}} 52 Senate seats while Democrats {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=have| after=had}} 46 Senate seats. Two seats {{2018are}} held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party maintained its Senate majority in the [[United States Senate elections, 2016|2016 elections]] when it only lost two seats.
*[[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]]
{{USSenatepartisan18}}
*[[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]]
*[[United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018|Ohio]]
*[[United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018|Indiana]]
{{col-break}}
*[[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]]
*[[United States Senate election in Maryland, 2018|Maryland]]
*[[United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018|West Virginia]]
*[[United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018|Massachusetts]]
*[[United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018|Vermont]]
*[[United States Senate election in Maine, 2018|Maine]]
{{col-end}}


There {{2018are}} 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=will need| after=needed}} to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This {{2018is}} unlikely as there {{2018are}} so few Republican seats up for election.<ref>[http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/14/democrats_unlikely_to_take_the_senate_in_2018_midterms.html ''Slate'', "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016]</ref>
There were no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.


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There {{2018are}} four states that [[Barack Obama]] won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by [[Donald Trump]] in 2016—[[United States Senate election in Florida, 2018|Florida]], [[United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018|Michigan]], [[United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018|Pennsylvania]], and [[United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018|Wisconsin]]—but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 ([[John McCain|McCain]] and [[Mitt Romney|Romney]]) which were won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016.


===Race ratings===
===U.S. House===
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from ''The Cook Political Report'', ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', and ''Inside Elections.''
Recent electoral history provided early indications of which U.S. House districts could be among the most competitive. The following statistics were compiled using the [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data].<ref>[http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections ''Daily Kos'', "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017]</ref>


{{Senate outside ratings comparison 2018}}
*There {{2018are}} 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent that [[Hillary Clinton]] won in 2016: [[Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-02]], [[California's 10th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-10]], [[California's 21st Congressional District election, 2018|CA-21]], [[California's 25th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-25]], [[California's 39th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-39]], [[California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-45]], [[California's 48th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-48]], [[California's 49th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-49]], [[Colorado's 6th Congressional District election, 2018|CO-06]], [[Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018|FL-26]], [[Florida's 27th Congressional District election, 2018|FL-27]], [[Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-06]], [[Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|KS-03]], [[Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|MN-03]], [[New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-07]], [[New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-24]], [[Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-06]], [[Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-07]], [[Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2018|TX-07]], [[Texas' 23rd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-23]], [[Texas' 32nd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-32]], [[Virginia's 10th Congressional District election, 2018|VA-10]], and [[Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|WA-08]]


==U.S. House==
*There {{2018are}} 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent that [[Donald Trump]] won in 2016: [[Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-01]], [[Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-02]], [[Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-17]], [[Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|MN-01]], [[Minnesota's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-07]], [[Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-08]], [[New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NH-01]], [[New Jersey's 5th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-05]], [[Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NV-03]], [[New York's 18th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-18]], [[Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-17]], and [[Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|WI-03]]
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained a total of six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=would need| after=needed}} to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/house ''The New York Times'', "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016]</ref>
{{USHousepartisan18}}


===Race ratings===
*There {{2018are}} 20 House seats that [[Barack Obama]] won in 2008 and 2012 which were won by [[Donald Trump]] in 2016: [[Iowa's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|IA-01]], [[Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-02]], [[Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|IA-03]], [[Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-12]], [[Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2018|IL-17]], [[Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|ME-02]], [[Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|MN-01]], [[Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|MN-02]], [[Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018|MN-08]], [[New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NH-01]], [[New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-02]], [[New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-03]], [[Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|NV-03]], [[New York's 1st Congressional District election, 2018|NY-01]], [[New York's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|NY-02]], [[New York's 18th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-18]], [[New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2018|NY-19]], [[New York's 21st Congressional District election, 2018|NY-21]], [[Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2018|PA-17]], and [[Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|WI-03]]
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from ''The Cook Political Report'', ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', and ''Inside Elections.''


{{House outside ratings comparison 2018}}
*There {{2018are}} eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 ([[John McCain|McCain]] and [[Mitt Romney|Romney]]) which were won by [[Hillary Clinton]] in 2016: [[Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018|AZ-02]], [[California's 39th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-39]], [[California's 45th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-45]], [[California's 48th Congressional District election, 2018|CA-48]], [[Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018|KS-03]], [[New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2018|NJ-07]], [[Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2018|TX-07]], and [[Texas' 32nd Congressional District election, 2018|TX-32]]


==Media coverage==
==Candidate breakdown==
::''See also: [[Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates and incumbents, 2018]]''


The plurality of candidates who have filed or otherwise declared congressional runs were Democrats. A full breakdown of candidates by party can be seen below.
<htmlet>2018 Cong candidates party breakdown</htmlet>
==Cook Partisan Voter Index==
::''See also: [[The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index]]''
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The chart above details the 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for each U.S. House district. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the ''[[The Cook Political Report]]'', compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. According to ''Politico'', the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district."<ref>[http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Charlie_Cooks_PVI.html ''Politico'', "Charlie Cook's PVI," April 10, 2009]</ref><ref>[http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/11/new-cook-pvis-show-big-opportunities-for-conservatives-in-the-house/ ''RedState'', "New Cook PVIs Show Big Opportunities for Conservatives in the House," October 11, 2012]</ref><ref>[http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/3967/ ''Swing State Project'', "Just what is the Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?" November 16, 2008]</ref>
<!--==Media coverage==
::''See also: [[Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018]]''
::''See also: [[Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018]]''
{{#section:Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018|Intro}}
{{#section:Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018|Intro}}
{{#section:Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018|Latest}}
{{#section:Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018|Latest}}-->
===Bannon's challenge to establishment Republicans===
{{115th Congress Special Elections}}


<section begin=Bannon/>Former White House chief strategist and ''[[Breitbart]]'' chair [[Steve Bannon]] pledged to work to remove establishment Republicans from Washington, D.C., through competitive primaries. "We’re going after these guys tooth and nail. We are declaring war on the Republican establishment that does not back the agenda that Donald Trump ran on. This agenda works. The American people voted for it," Bannon said during an interview on October 10, 2017.<ref>[http://www.newsweek.com/steve-bannon-declares-war-republicans-calls-trump-critic-corker-resign-681329 ''Newsweek'', "Steve Bannon Declares War on Republicans, Calls for Trump Critic Bob Corker to Resign," October 10, 2017]</ref><section end=Bannon/> ''Axios'' reported that Bannon planned to back the following possible and declared candidates:<ref>[https://www.axios.com/steve-bannons-next-victims-2494566949.html ''Axios'', "Steve Bannon's next victims," October 8, 2017]</ref>
==Comparison of retirements==
::''See also: [[List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018]]''
{{#section:List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018|compare}}


{{colbegin|2}}
==Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report==
* Rep. [[Marsha Blackburn]] in Tennessee
::''See also: [[Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018]]''
* [[Patrick Morrisey]] in West Virginia
* [[Matt Rosendale]] in Montana
* [[Josh Hawley]] in Missouri
*[[Danny Tarkanian]] in Nevada
*[[Kelli Ward]] in Arizona
*[[Chris McDaniel]] in Mississippi
*[[Rick Scott]] in Florida
*[[Roy Moore]] in Alabama
*[[Erik Prince]] in Wyoming
*[[Ann LePage]] in Maine{{colend}}


==Special elections==
Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections {{greener|start=11/7/2018|before=finds|after=found}} that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators {{greener|start=11/7/2018|before=will|after=would}} not be on the 2018 general election ballot.
:: ''See also: [[Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)]]''


Special elections {{Greener| start=January 1, 2018 8am EST| before=will make| after=made}} up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific [[Filling vacancies in the U.S. Senate|state laws governing vacancies]], a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there {{Greener| start=November 6, 2018 8pm EST| before=will be| after=were}} more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.
{{TLDRbox|Of the U.S. representatives and U.S. senators who could have been eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 58 of them (12.9 percent) either decided not to do so or were defeated in a partisan primary before reaching the general election.|In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there were 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016).|In 22 races, the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. One of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 {{greener|start=11/7/2018|before=features|after=featured}} just one major party candidate participating in the general election.}}


===Expected special elections===
{{WavesreportpromoSenate}}
The table below displays a running list of the expected special elections to the [[115th United States Congress]].


{{Cong spec elec 115th}}
==Analysis of federal elections, 2018==
::''See also: [[Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018]]
 
{{#section:Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018|Federal}}


==Election issues==
==Election issues==
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*[[United States House of Representatives elections, 2018]]
*[[United States House of Representatives elections, 2018]]
*[[United States Congress elections, 2016]]
*[[United States Congress elections, 2016]]
*[[United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018]]
*[[United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018]]
*[[Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)]]
{{Fundraising box}}


==Footnotes==
==Footnotes==
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{{2018 congress election}}
{{2018 congress election}}
[[Category:Congress elections, 2018]]
[[Category:Congress elections, 2018]]
[[Category:Marquee, overview page, 2018]]
[[Category: 2018 national election overviews]]

Latest revision as of 23:31, 20 January 2020

← 2016
2020 →



CongressLogo.png

2018 Congress Elections
Election Date
November 6, 2018
U.S. Senate Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
U.S. House Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

On November 6, 2018, 470 seats in the U.S. Congress (35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) were up for election. The Democratic Party won control of the House, and the Republican Party retained control of the Senate.

Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than the 23 seats they needed to win control of the House. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled the House with a 235-193 majority (plus seven vacancies). From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Republicans gained a net total of two U.S. Senate seats. Heading into the election, Republicans held 51 seats, Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucused with Democrats. In 2018, Democrats defended 26 seats—two held by independents—while Republicans defended nine seats. Ten Democratic seats were in states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016.

On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the 2018 congressional elections:

Partisan breakdown

U.S. Senate

In the 2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 5, 2018 After the 2018 Election
     Democratic Party 47 45
     Republican Party 51 53
     Independent 2 2
     Vacancies 0 0
Total 100 100

U.S. House

Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. This was short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 23 seats in 2018 to win partisan control. In 2018, Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than they needed.[1]

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 5, 2018 After the 2018 Election
     Democratic Party 193 235
     Republican Party 235 200[2]
     Vacancies 7 0
Total 435 435


Battlegrounds

Battlegrounds were races that Ballotpedia expected to be particularly competitive, interesting, or meaningful to the future balance of power in Congress. Factors that we considered in naming a battleground election included the margins of victory from the previous few congressional elections in the district, how the district voted in the most recent presidential elections, whether a seat was open, if a particularly strong challenger had entered the race, and more.

U.S. Senate

The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.

Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018
State Incumbent Winner Partisan change Incumbent status
Arizona Republican Party Jeff Flake Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Yes Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein No Won
Florida Democratic Party Bill Nelson Republican Party Rick Scott Yes Lost
Indiana Democratic Party Joe Donnelly Republican Party Mike Braun Yes Lost
Minnesota (special) Democratic Party Tina Smith Democratic Party Tina Smith No Won
Missouri Democratic Party Claire McCaskill Republican Party Josh Hawley Yes Lost
Mississippi (special) Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith No Won
Montana Democratic Party Jon Tester Democratic Party Jon Tester No Won
North Dakota Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp Republican Party Kevin Cramer Yes Lost
New Jersey Democratic Party Bob Menendez Democratic Party Bob Menendez No Won
New Mexico Democratic Party Martin Heinrich Democratic Party Martin Heinrich No Won
Nevada Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes Lost
Ohio Democratic Party Sherrod Brown Democratic Party Sherrod Brown No Won
Tennessee Republican Party Bob Corker Republican Party Marsha Blackburn No Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas Republican Party Ted Cruz Republican Party Ted Cruz No Won
West Virginia Democratic Party Joe Manchin Democratic Party Joe Manchin No Won


U.S. House

Ballotpedia identified 82 U.S. House battleground races: 73 Republican seats and nine Democratic seats. At least 43 of the Republican-held battleground seats were won by Democrats and three of the Democratic-held battleground seats were won by Republicans. The following map identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a district for more detailed information. You can also zoom in for a closer look.

United States House Battleground Races
District Incumbent Winner Partisan change?
Alaska's at-large Republican Party Don Young Republican Party Don Young No
Arkansas' 2nd Republican Party French Hill Republican Party French Hill No
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran No
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
California's 8th Republican Party Paul Cook Republican Party Paul Cook No
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder Yes
California's 16th Democratic Party Jim Costa Democratic Party Jim Costa No
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox Yes
California's 22nd Republican Party Devin Nunes Republican Party Devin Nunes No
California's 25th Republican Party Stephen Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill Yes
California's 39th Republican Party Edward Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros Yes
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter Yes
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda Yes
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin Yes
California's 50th Republican Party Duncan Hunter Republican Party Duncan Hunter No
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow Yes
Florida's 15th Republican Party Dennis Ross Republican Party Ross Spano No
Florida's 16th Republican Party Vern Buchanan Republican Party Vern Buchanan No
Florida's 18th Republican Party Brian Mast Republican Party Brian Mast No
Florida's 25th Republican Party Mario Diaz-Balart Republican Party Mario Diaz-Balart No
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Yes
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala Yes
Georgia's 6th Republican Party Karen Handel Democratic Party Lucy McBath Yes
Georgia's 7th Republican Party Rob Woodall Republican Party Rob Woodall No
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten Yes
Illinois' 12th Republican Party Mike Bost Republican Party Mike Bost No
Illinois' 13th Republican Party Rodney Davis Republican Party Rodney Davis No
Illinois' 14th Republican Party Randy Hultgren Democratic Party Lauren Underwood Yes
Iowa's 1st Republican Party Rod Blum Democratic Party Abby Finkenauer Yes
Iowa's 3rd Republican Party David Young Democratic Party Cindy Axne Yes
Kansas' 2nd Republican Party Lynn Jenkins Republican Party Steve Watkins No
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids Yes
Kentucky's 6th Republican Party Andy Barr Republican Party Andy Barr No
Maine's 2nd Republican Party Bruce Poliquin Democratic Party Jared Golden Yes
Michigan's 8th Republican Party Mike Bishop Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin Yes
Michigan's 11th Republican Party David Trott Democratic Party Haley Stevens Yes
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn Yes
Minnesota's 2nd Republican Party Jason Lewis Democratic Party Angie Craig Yes
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips Yes
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber Yes
Montana's at-large Republican Party Greg Gianforte Republican Party Greg Gianforte No
Nebraska's 2nd Republican Party Don Bacon Republican Party Don Bacon No
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee No
Nevada's 4th Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Democratic Party Steven Horsford No
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas No
New Jersey's 2nd Republican Party Frank LoBiondo Democratic Party Jeff Van Drew Yes
New Jersey's 3rd Republican Party Tom MacArthur Democratic Party Andy Kim Yes
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski Yes
New Jersey's 11th Republican Party Rodney Frelinghuysen Democratic Party Mikie Sherrill Yes
New Mexico's 2nd Republican Party Steve Pearce Democratic Party Xochitl Torres Small Yes
New York's 11th Republican Party Dan Donovan Democratic Party Max Rose Yes
New York's 19th Republican Party John Faso Democratic Party Antonio Delgado Yes
New York's 22nd Republican Party Claudia Tenney Democratic Party Anthony Brindisi Yes
New York's 27th Republican Party Chris Collins Republican Party Chris Collins No
North Carolina's 2nd Republican Party George Holding Republican Party George Holding No
North Carolina's 9th Republican Party Robert Pittenger Republican Party Dan Bishop No
North Carolina's 13th Republican Party Ted Budd Republican Party Ted Budd No
Ohio's 1st Republican Party Steve Chabot Republican Party Steve Chabot No
Ohio's 7th Republican Party Bob Gibbs Republican Party Bob Gibbs No
Ohio's 12th Republican Party Troy Balderson Republican Party Troy Balderson No
Oklahoma's 5th Republican Party Steve Russell Democratic Party Kendra Horn Yes
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick No
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Vacant Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon Yes
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan Yes
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Vacant Democratic Party Susan Wild Yes
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler Yes
Pennsylvania's 17th Republican Party Keith Rothfus Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes
South Carolina's 1st Republican Party Mark Sanford Democratic Party Joe Cunningham Yes
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Yes
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd No
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred Yes
Utah's 4th Republican Party Mia Love Democratic Party Ben McAdams Yes
Virginia's 2nd Republican Party Scott Taylor Democratic Party Elaine Luria Yes
Virginia's 5th Republican Party Thomas Garrett Republican Party Denver Riggleman No
Virginia's 7th Republican Party David Brat Democratic Party Abigail Spanberger Yes
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton Yes
Washington's 3rd Republican Party Jaime Herrera Beutler Republican Party Jaime Herrera Beutler No
Washington's 5th Republican Party Cathy McMorris Rodgers Republican Party Cathy McMorris Rodgers No
Washington's 8th Republican Party Dave Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier Yes
Washington's 9th Democratic Party Adam Smith Democratic Party Adam Smith No
West Virginia's 3rd Republican Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party Carol Miller No
Wisconsin's 1st Republican Party Paul Ryan Republican Party Bryan Steil No

Margin of victory

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections

The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent.

U.S. Senate

  • The average margin of victory was 16.8 percent. This is below the 22.1 percent average in 2016 and the 22.6 percent average in 2014.
  • On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 16.8 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 14.3 percent.
  • The closest race was in Florida, where challenger Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.

U.S. House

  • The average margin of victory was 30.2 percent. This is below the 36.6 percent average in 2016 and the 35.8 percent average in 2014.
  • On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 36.6 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 22.8 percent.
  • The closest race was in Georgia's 7th Congressional District, where incumbent Rob Woodall (R) defeated challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.

Fundraising by candidate

The following charts show the top U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraisers of the 2017-2018 election cycle based on FEC filings through December 17, 2018.

Fundraising by party

See also: Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018

The Republican National Committee (RNC) raised over $192 million in 2018 compared to just under $110 million raised by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) during that same period. The RNC spent almost twice as much during the year as the DNC, with disbursements of over $207.5 million, while the DNC reported spending just under $108 million over the same period. As of the end of 2018, the RNC reported having $23.5 million of cash on hand and no debts owed. The DNC reported having $8.5 million as of the end of the year, with about $5.5 million of debt.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised almost $191 million in 2018, which is $70 million more than the approximately $121 million raised by the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC). The DCCC raised about $85 million and spent over $141 million during the months of September, October, and November of 2018, while the NRCC raised about $52 million and spent over $96 million during the same period. As of the end of 2018, the DCCC reported having about $5.5 million in cash on hand and almost $19 million of debt, while the NRCC reported a cash balance of $16.5 million with $10.6 million of debt.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) raised over $109.5 million in 2018 while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised over $94 million during the year. The NRSC spent about $117.5 million in 2018 with the DSCC spending approximately $107 million during the same period. Both parties' Senate campaign committees reported having more debt than cash on hand as of December 31, 2018. The NRSC had $7.5 million in cash and $17 million in debt as of that date, with the DSCC reporting just over $6 million in cash and over $21 million in debt at the end of 2018.

2018 annual fundraising for party national committees
Organization Total Receipts Total Disbursements Cash on hand Debts Owed
National party committees (through/as of December 31, 2018)
DNC $109,820,208 $107,882,227 $8,550,791 $5,625,873
RNC $192,326,316 $207,643,381 $23,501,561 $0
House campaign committees (through/as of December 31, 2018)
DCCC $190,962,396 $224,247,395 $5,615,496 $18,943,553
NRCC $120,768,091 $147,847,533 $16,565,198 $10,600,000
Senate campaign committees (through/as of December 31, 2018)
DSCC $94,294,716 $107,131,170 $6,185,158 $21,079,721
NRSC $109,652,458 $117,423,685 $7,497,936 $17,000,000


Note: This table summarizes data for 2018 as reported on each committee's Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports.

Pre-election analysis based on recent election history

The following section compares results from the most recent presidential, gubernatorial, or U.S. House elections that occurred prior to the 2018 elections. These results provided early indications of expected competitive Senate and House elections in 2018.

U.S. Senate

In U.S. Senate elections, recent history showed that the Democratic Party could be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in 2018.

There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016:

Only one state with a Republican incumbent was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor:

There were no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

There were four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016—Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) which were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

U.S. House

Recent electoral history provided early indications of which U.S. House districts could be among the most competitive. The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data.[3]

Candidate breakdown

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates and incumbents, 2018

The plurality of candidates who have filed or otherwise declared congressional runs were Democrats. A full breakdown of candidates by party can be seen below.

Cook Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

The chart above details the 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for each U.S. House district. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district."[4][5][6]

Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:


Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV[7]
Kansas' 4th Congressional District April 11, 2017 Republican Party Mike Pompeo Republican Party Ron Estes R+6 R+31 R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District May 25, 2017 Republican Party Ryan Zinke Republican Party Greg Gianforte R+6 R+15 R+21
California's 34th Congressional District June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Xavier Becerra Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez D+18[8] D+54[8] D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Tom Price Republican Party Karen Handel R+4 R+24 R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Mick Mulvaney Republican Party Ralph Norman R+3 R+20 R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District November 7, 2017 Republican Party Jason Chaffetz Republican Party John Curtis R+32 R+47 R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama December 12, 2017 Republican Party Jeff Sessions Democratic Party Doug Jones D+2 R+28 R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District March 13, 2018 Republican Party Tim Murphy Democratic Party Conor Lamb D+0[9] R+100 R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District April 24, 2018 Republican Party Trent Franks Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+6 R+38 R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District June 30, 2018 Republican Party Blake Farenthold Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23 R+24 R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District August 7, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Tiberi Republican Party Troy Balderson R+1 R+40 R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party John Conyers Jr. Democratic Party Brenda Jones D+78 D+61 D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Al Franken Democratic Party Tina Smith D+11 D+10 D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi November 6, 2018 Republican Party Thad Cochran Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith R+8 R+22 R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Louise Slaughter Democratic Party Joseph Morelle D+16 D+12 D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Meehan Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+6 R+19 D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Charlie Dent Democratic Party Susan Wild D+0 R+20 R+8


Comparison of retirements

See also: List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018

The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.

Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018
Year Chamber Democrats not seeking re-election Republicans not seeking re-election Total not seeking re-election Democrats leaving office early Republicans leaving office early Total leaving office early
2018
U.S. Senate 0 3 3 1 2 3
U.S. House 18 34 52 3 14 17
Total 18 37 55 4 16 20
2016
U.S. Senate 3 2 5 0 0 0
U.S. House 16 24 40 2 5 7
Total 19 26 45 2 5 7
2014
U.S. Senate 5 2 7 3 2 5
U.S. House 16 25 41 3 6 9
Total 21 27 48 6 8 14
2012
U.S. Senate 6 3 10[10] 0 0 0
U.S. House 23 20 43 4 1 5
Total 29 23 53 4 1 5

Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report

See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018

Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Of the U.S. representatives and U.S. senators who could have been eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 58 of them (12.9 percent) either decided not to do so or were defeated in a partisan primary before reaching the general election.
  • In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there were 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016).
  • In 22 races, the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. One of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 featured just one major party candidate participating in the general election.

    • Wave election analysis

    See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

    The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

    Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

    Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

    The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

    U.S. Senate wave elections
    Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[11]
    1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
    1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
    1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
    1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
    2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
    1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
    2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
    1926 Coolidge R First midterm[12] -7 R
    1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
    1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

    Analysis of federal elections, 2018

    See also: Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018


    All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.

    All federal elections:
    Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report
    United States Congress elections, 2018
    Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018
    Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
    List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018
    List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018
    Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
    Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections
    Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections
    Incumbent win rates by state
    New members elected in 2018 congressional elections
    Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses
    Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018
    Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018
    Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections
    PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections
    Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018
    Battleground election polls, 2018
    Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections
    Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018
    U.S. Senate elections:
    U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018
    United States Senate elections, 2018
    Control of the U.S. Senate
    States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018
    U.S. House elections:
    U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
    United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
    Control of the U.S. House
    U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
    U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016
    U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018


    Election issues

    Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.

    The American Health Care Act of 2017 (AHCA)
    Energy and the Environment
    Financial Policy
    Healthcare
    Immigration
    Taxes
    Trade


    See also


    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
    2. ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
    3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
    4. ↑ Politico, "Charlie Cook's PVI," April 10, 2009
    5. ↑ RedState, "New Cook PVIs Show Big Opportunities for Conservatives in the House," October 11, 2012
    6. ↑ Swing State Project, "Just what is the Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?" November 16, 2008
    7. ↑ Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
    8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
    9. ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
    10. ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
    11. ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
    12. ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
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